Essays on the term structure of interest rates

This PhD thesis contains three main chapters on macro finance, with a focus on the term structure of interest rates and the applications of state-of-the-art Bayesian econometrics. Except for Chapter 1 and Chapter 5, which set out the general introduction and conclusion, each of the chapters can be considered as a standalone piece of work. In Chapter 2, we model and predict the term structure of US interest rates in a data rich environment. We allow the model dimension and parameters to change over time, accounting for model uncertainty and sudden structural changes. The proposed time-varying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks. DMA performs better since it incorporates more macro-finance information during recessions. The proposed method allows us to estimate plausible real-time term premia, whose countercyclicality weakened during the financial crisis. Chapter 3 investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in the bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement. Our results suggest that global inflation is the most important factor among global macro fundamentals. Non-fundamental factors are essential in driving global co-movements, and are closely related to sentiment and economic uncertainty. Lastly, we analyze asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. Chapter 4 proposes a no-arbitrage framework of term structure modeling with learning and model uncertainty. The representative agent considers parameter instability, as well as the uncertainty in learning speed and model restrictions. The empirical evidence shows that apart from observational variance, parameter instability is the dominant source of predictive variance when compared with uncertainty in learning speed or model restrictions. When accounting for ambiguity aversion, the out-of-sample predictability of excess returns implied by the learning model can be translated into significant and consistent economic gains over the Expectations Hypothesis benchmark.

Relations among Topic Knowledge, Individual Interest, and Relational Reasoning, and Critical Thinking in Maternity Nursing

Critical thinking in learners is a goal of educators and professional organizations in nursing as well as other professions. However, few studies in nursing have examined the role of the important individual difference factors topic knowledge, individual interest, and general relational reasoning strategies in predicting critical thinking. In addition, most previous studies have used domain-general, standardized measures, with inconsistent results. Moreover, few studies have investigated critical thinking across multiple levels of experience. The major purpose of this study was to examine the degree to which topic knowledge, individual interest, and relational reasoning predict critical thinking in maternity nurses. For this study, 182 maternity nurses were recruited from national nursing listservs explicitly chosen to capture multiple levels of experience from prelicensure to very experienced nurses. The three independent measures included a domain-specific Topic Knowledge Assessment (TKA), consisting of 24 short-answer questions, a Professed and Engaged Interest Measure (PEIM), with 20 questions indicating level of interest and engagement in maternity nursing topics and activities, and the Test of Relational Reasoning (TORR), a graphical selected response measure with 32 items organized in scales corresponding to four forms of relational reasoning: analogy, anomaly, antithesis, and antinomy. The dependent measure was the Critical Thinking Task in Maternity Nursing (CT2MN), composed of a clinical case study providing cues with follow-up questions relating to nursing care. These questions align with the cognitive processes identified in a commonly-used definition of critical thinking in nursing. Reliable coding schemes for the measures were developed for this study. Key findings included a significant correlation between topic knowledge and individual interest. Further, the three individual difference factors explained a significant proportion of the variance in critical thinking with a large effect size. While topic knowledge was the strongest predictor of critical thinking performance, individual interest had a moderate significant effect, and relational reasoning had a small but significant effect. The findings suggest that these individual difference factors should be included in future studies of critical thinking in nursing. Implications for nursing education, research, and practice are discussed.

Other-Regarding Preferences in General Equilibrium

We study competitive market outcomes in economies where agents have other-regarding preferences. We identify a separability condition on monotone preferences that is necessary and sufficient for one’s own demand to be independent of the allocations and characteristics of other agents in the economy. Given separability, it is impossible to identify other-regarding preferences from market behavior: agents be- have as if they had classical preferences that depend only on own consumption in competitive equilibrium. If preferences, in addition, depend only on the final allocation of consumption in society, the Sec- ond Welfare Theorem holds as long as an increase in resources can be distributed such that all agents are better off. Nevertheless, the First Welfare Theorem generally does not hold. Allowing agents to care about their own consumption and the distribution of consump- tion possibilities in the economy, we provide a condition under which agents have no incentive to make direct transfers, and show that this condition implies that competitive equilibria are efficient given prices.

Objetos de aprendizaje para el desarrollo del tema: inecuaciones de primer grado e intervalos de solución de noveno de educación general básica.

El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo dar a conocer Objetos de Aprendizaje, como un recurso tecnológico, que sirva de soporte a la educación y que contribuya en la enseñanza de las Inecuaciones de primer grado. Para realizar este proyecto se han planteado cinco capítulos de desarrollo: En el capítulo uno se realiza una investigación bibliográfica donde se describe la Educación, orientándola hacia el constructivismo, que centra al estudiante como constructor de su conocimiento y la importancia de usar material didáctico apto para desarrollar sus habilidades. En el capítulo dos se desarrolla el tema de Inecuaciones de primer grado, dividiéndolo en cuatro subtemas: Inecuaciones de primer grado con una y dos incógnitas, intervalos de solución y sistemas de inecuaciones. En el capítulo tres se presenta un análisis a los recursos educativos de libre acceso en diferentes sitios web, dónde se evidencia el desarrollo de plataformas que buscan consolidar los aprendizajes. En el capítulo cuatro se desarrolla el diseño de los cuatro Objetos de Aprendizaje; a partir de su metodología para la estructuración; además se usará guías para su organización. Y finalmente en el capítulo cinco se aprecia el interés que producen los Objetos de Aprendizaje, en los estudiantes de Noveno de EGB. Permitiendo observar que este recurso fortalece el aprendizaje de forma divertida e interactiva; dando apertura al uso de instrumentos multimedia como material de autoformación.

Entrepreneurship: a long way to go

Entrepreneurship education has emerged as one popular research domain in academic fields given its aim at enhancing and developing certain entrepreneurial qualities of undergraduates that change their state of behavior, even their entrepreneurial inclination and finally may result in the formation of new businesses as well as new job opportunities. This study attempts to investigate the Colombian student´s entrepreneurial qualities and the influence of entrepreneurial education during their studies.

Factores de éxito en el programa de responsabilidad social empresarial (RSE) para el sector salud, aplicación de la norma ISO 26000 en la IPS Fundación Cardio Infantil

El presente estudio tiene como objetivo mostrar los factores de éxito del programa de Responsabilidad Social de la Fundación Cardioinfantil, teniendo en cuenta que esta institución se ha convertido en un referente de compromiso social y sostenibilidad en el sector salud y en las instituciones de cuarto nivel de complejidad. Para alcanzar este objetivo se realizaron visitas y se aplicó un instrumento en la Fundación Cardioinfantil y en cuatro instituciones más del mismo nivel de atención en las ciudades de Bogotá, Cali y Medellín, donde generosamente aportaron información acerca del desarrollo de sus programas de Responsabilidad Social y de la aplicación de los tópicos contenidos en la ISO 26000 dentro de sus instituciones. Así mismo dentro de la Fundación Cardioinfantil se realizó una entrevista con la persona encargada de desarrollar el programa, quien manifestó los detalles del funcionamiento de este y los esfuerzos realizados para lograr la diferenciación en el sector salud. A través de este recorrido por las diferentes instituciones de salud consultadas y de la investigación realizada en la fundación Cardioinfantil se realizó una matriz DOFA que nos reveló la falta de comunicación en las mejoras realizadas en las diferentes organizaciones de salud, una vez han detectado las fallas en inherentes a su actuación con los grupos de interés. La adopción de estándares internacionales para la gobernanza y aplicación de los programas de RSE aún es incipiente en el sector salud en general. También es posible resaltar el hecho de que programas de RSE desarrollados a nivel de la fundación Cardioinfantil evolucionan hacia la innovación en la calidad de la atención y la trasformación de sus organizaciones hacia la mejora continua.

Feasibility in Using Technological Resources for Implementing the Environmental Culture Cross-Cutting Factor for Sustainable Development in the Costa Rican Basic General Education

The purpose of this research was to analyze whether the use of technological resources may be feasible in the implementation of the environmental culture cross-cutting factor for sustainable development, which focuses on environmental issues related to the contents of the Science study program for the seventh year of the basic general education. The research design is qualitative with a dominant approach and uses some quantitative elements specifically in the design of instruments and some data analysis techniques. The type of study was developed with a multi-method approach; a trend that has been shaping a research style which integrates various methods in a single design. For this, we identified the didactic strategies and their relationship to both, technology and the environmental axis for sustainable development, used by six Science teachers of the 7th grade, in public institutions of the province of Heredia, Central Valley, Costa Rica, as well as the opinion of 20 students from that same grade. The main results include the opinions of the students, who showed a considerable interest in classes where technological resources are used. However, teachers do not show great interest or positive opinions on this matter; in addition, they are not well trained on the use of technological resources. It was also identified that the teaching personal who participated in the study do not develop this curricular axis.

Determination of microplastics in the digestive content of pelagic fish of commercial interest

The study aimed to determine the amount of microplastics (MPs) found in the digestive content of some pelagic tuna fish species of commercial interest caught along the Spanish coasts. In total, 601 individuals belonging to eight tuna species, and one species of the Corypheanidae family, were examined for the presence of MPs in their stomachs. Fish were collected from 9 different locations along the Spanish coasts by commercial fishers. A total of 170 MPs were extracted from the fish stomach of 75 individuals. The number of particles present in the stomach ranged from 1 to 20 (mean 0.3± 1.2 SD MPs per individual). The species with the highest amount of MPs was Auxix rochei whereas the species that did not present any MPs was Coryphaena hippurus, the only species not belonging to the tuna group. In terms of location, the highest ratio of MPs (71%) was found in the fish collected from Azohia, and the lowest in Mazagon (7%). In general, the fish that ingested more MPs were those caught from sites that were closer to the coasts (Canarias Islands stations and Azohia). No correlation between the number of ingested MPs and the size and weight of the fish were detected nor for the whole sample nor for each species separately. Analyzing the MPs in terms of colour, green colour MPs were the most dominant (52%) followed by blue colour (25%). Analyzing the MPs in terms of size, 11 categories were considered and the most dominant size was 0-0.5 micron. Fibers were excluded from the analysis because no protocol was adopted to prevent their contamination. Furthermore, 100% of the MPs found were fragments. The data did not show a high presence of MPs in the analyzed study areas. A bias could probably be due to the method used, allowing to loose a certain quantity of very small microplastics, and also to ethological and biological factors of the species, as documented by other studies: very often MPs do not accumulate in the stomach and are expelled from the individual.

Estimated Disability-adjusted Life Years Averted By Long-term Provision Of Long Acting Contraceptive Methods In A Brazilian Clinic.

What is the contribution of the provision, at no cost for users, of long acting reversible contraceptive methods (LARC; copper intrauterine device [IUD], the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system [LNG-IUS], contraceptive implants and depot-medroxyprogesterone [DMPA] injection) towards the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) averted through a Brazilian university-based clinic established over 30 years ago. Over the last 10 years of evaluation, provision of LARC methods and DMPA by the clinic are estimated to have contributed to DALY averted by between 37 and 60 maternal deaths, 315-424 child mortalities, 634-853 combined maternal morbidity and mortality and child mortality, and 1056-1412 unsafe abortions averted. LARC methods are associated with a high contraceptive effectiveness when compared with contraceptive methods which need frequent attention; perhaps because LARC methods are independent of individual or couple compliance. However, in general previous studies have evaluated contraceptive methods during clinical studies over a short period of time, or not more than 10 years. Furthermore, information regarding the estimation of the DALY averted is scarce. We reviewed 50 004 medical charts from women who consulted for the first time looking for a contraceptive method over the period from 2 January 1980 through 31 December 2012. Women who consulted at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University of Campinas, Brazil were new users and users switching contraceptive, including the copper IUD (n = 13 826), the LNG-IUS (n = 1525), implants (n = 277) and DMPA (n = 9387). Estimation of the DALY averted included maternal morbidity and mortality, child mortality and unsafe abortions averted. We obtained 29 416 contraceptive segments of use including 25 009 contraceptive segments of use from 20 821 new users or switchers to any LARC method or DMPA with at least 1 year of follow-up. The mean (± SD) age of the women at first consultation ranged from 25.3 ± 5.7 (range 12-47) years in the 1980s, to 31.9 ± 7.4 (range 16-50) years in 2010-2011. The most common contraceptive chosen at the first consultation was copper IUD (48.3, 74.5 and 64.7% in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively). For an evaluation over 20 years, the cumulative pregnancy rates (SEM) were 0.4 (0.2), 2.8 (2.1), 4.0 (0.4) and 1.3 (0.4) for the LNG-IUS, the implants, copper IUD and DMPA, respectively and cumulative continuation rates (SEM) were 15.1 (3.7), 3.9 (1.4), 14.1 (0.6) and 7.3 (1.7) for the LNG-IUS, implants, copper IUD and DMPA, respectively (P < 0.001). Over the last 10 years of evaluation, the estimation of the contribution of the clinic through the provision of LARC methods and DMPA to DALY averted was 37-60 maternal deaths; between 315 and 424 child mortalities; combined maternal morbidity and mortality and child mortality of between 634 and 853, and 1056-1412 unsafe abortions averted. The main limitations are the number of women who never returned to the clinic (overall 14% among the four methods under evaluation); consequently the pregnancy rate could be different. Other limitations include the analysis of two kinds of copper IUD and two kinds of contraceptive implants as the same IUD or implant, and the low number of users of implants. In addition, the DALY calculation relies on a number of estimates, which may vary in different parts of the world. LARC methods and DMPA are highly effective and women who were well-counselled used these methods for a long time. The benefit of averting maternal morbidity and mortality, child mortality, and unsafe abortions is an example to health policy makers to implement more family planning programmes and to offer contraceptive methods, mainly LARC and DMPA, at no cost or at affordable cost for the underprivileged population. This study received partial financial support from the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP), grant # 2012/12810-4 and from the National Research Council (CNPq), grant #573747/2008-3. B.F.B., M.P.G., and V.M.C. were fellows from the scientific initiation programme from FAPESP. Since the year 2001, all the TCu380A IUD were donated by Injeflex, São Paulo, Brazil, and from the year 2006 all the LNG-IUS were donated by the International Contraceptive Access Foundation (ICA), Turku, Finland. Both donations are as unrestricted grants. The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest associated with this study.

Survival Extrapolation In The Presence Of Cause Specific Hazards.

Health economic evaluations require estimates of expected survival from patients receiving different interventions, often over a lifetime. However, data on the patients of interest are typically only available for a much shorter follow-up time, from randomised trials or cohorts. Previous work showed how to use general population mortality to improve extrapolations of the short-term data, assuming a constant additive or multiplicative effect on the hazards for all-cause mortality for study patients relative to the general population. A more plausible assumption may be a constant effect on the hazard for the specific cause of death targeted by the treatments. To address this problem, we use independent parametric survival models for cause-specific mortality among the general population. Because causes of death are unobserved for the patients of interest, a polyhazard model is used to express their all-cause mortality as a sum of latent cause-specific hazards. Assuming proportional cause-specific hazards between the general and study populations then allows us to extrapolate mortality of the patients of interest to the long term. A Bayesian framework is used to jointly model all sources of data. By simulation, we show that ignoring cause-specific hazards leads to biased estimates of mean survival when the proportion of deaths due to the cause of interest changes through time. The methods are applied to an evaluation of implantable cardioverter defibrillators for the prevention of sudden cardiac death among patients with cardiac arrhythmia. After accounting for cause-specific mortality, substantial differences are seen in estimates of life years gained from implantable cardioverter defibrillators.

A dança na formação docente em educação física

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Analise comparativa das caracteristicas cinematicas da coluna durante a marcha e a corrida

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Stress no trabalho em professores de educação fisica do sistema municipal de educação, na comunidade de Concepcion, oitava região, Chile

Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Faculdade de Educação Física

Projeto Sol Morumbi - Paulinia : as lembranças da infancia e adolescencia pelos caminhos da Educação Fisica

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Fisica

A integração do esporte adaptado com o esporte convencional a partir da inserção de provas adaptadas : um estudo de caso

Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Faculdade de Educação Física