Overview on the Cost-effectiveness of Maritime Safety Policy Instruments

Maritime safety is an issue that has gained a lot of attention in the Baltic Sea area due to the dense maritime traffic and transportation of oil in the area. Lots of effort has been paid to enhance maritime safety in the area. The risk exists that excessive legislation and other requirements mean more costs for limited benefit. In order to utilize both public and private resources efficiently, awareness is required of what kind of costs maritime safety policy instruments cause and whether the costs are in relation to benefits. The aim of this report is to present an overview of the cost-effectiveness of maritime safety policy instruments focusing on the cost aspect: what kind of costs maritime safety policy causes, to whom, what affects the cost-effectiveness and how cost-effectiveness is studied. The study is based on a literature review and on the interviews of Finnish maritime experts. The results of this study imply that cost-effectiveness is a complicated issue to evaluate. There are no uniform practices for which costs and benefits should be included in the evaluation and how they should be valued. One of the challenges is how to measure costs and benefits during the course of a longer time period. Often a lack of data erodes the reliability of evaluation. In the prevention of maritime accidents, costs typically include investments in ship structures or equipment, as well as maintenance and labor costs. Also large investments may be justifiable if they respectively provide significant improvements to maritime safety. Measures are cost-effective only if they are implemented properly. Costeffectiveness is decreased if a measure causes overlapping or repetitious work. Costeffectiveness is also decreased if the technology isn’t user-friendly or if it is soon replaced with a new technology or another new appliance. In future studies on the cost-effectiveness of maritime safety policy, it is important to acknowledge the dependency between different policy instruments and the uncertainty of the factors affecting cost-effectiveness. The costs of a single measure are rarely relatively significant and the effect of each measure on safety tends to be positive. The challenge is to rank the measures and to find the most effective combination of different policy instruments. The greatest potential offered for the analysis of cost-effectiveness of individual measures is their implementation in clearly defined risk situations, in which different measures are truly alternative to each other. Overall, maritime safety measures do not seem to be considered burdening for the shipping industry in Finland at the moment. Generally actors in the Finnish shipping industry seem to find maintaining a high safety level important and act accordingly.

Dam safety guide

A new Dam Safety Act (494/2009) came into force on 1st October 2009 and a Government Decree on Dam Safety (319/2010) on 5th May 2010. This Dam Safety Guide replaces the Dam Safety Code of Practice (Publication of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry 7/1997), removed from circulation on 1st October 2009. The Dam Safety Guide is not binding on the dam owner; the purpose is to complement and elucidate the relevant law and and decree through examples and descriptions. The Guide takes up questions concerning dam design, for instance hydrological dimensioning and technical safety requirements, dam construction and use, the dam break hazard analysis and the dam owner’s emergency action plan, maintenance, use, monitoring as well as the annual and periodic inspections. Dams are classified according to the hazard they pose into class 1, 2 or 3 dams. The classification is not needed, if, according to the dam safety authority, the dam poses no danger. The owner of a classified dam must prepare a monitoring programme, to be approved by decision of the dam safety authority. To establish the hazard caused by a dam, the owner of a class 1 dam must prepare an analysis of the dam hazard to humans and property as well as to the environment. The dam safety authority may also require a dam break hazard analysis for a dam other than class 1 dam if deemed necessary for classification. The owner of a class 1 dam must prepare a plan of measures in case of emergency or operational failure. The plan shall present the dam owner’s state of preparedness to act on their own initiative in the situations described above. In each case, the rescue authorities make a separate assessment for the need to prepare a plan as set out in the Rescue Act. The dam owner must provide the information specified in the Dam Safety Decree to be entered into the dam safety information system. The dam safety authority and the owner of the dam must keep up-to-date printouts in their own dam safety files from the information system for each dam as well as other important documents connected with dam safety to ensure that these are readily available in case of disturbance.

A meta-analysis of probiotics for preventing necrotizing enterocolitis in preterm neonates

Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is one of the most common acquired diseases of the gastrointestinal tract in preterm infants. Some randomized, controlled trials (RCTs) have indicated that probiotics may potentially lower the incidence of NEC and mortality. However, debate still remains about the safety of probiotics and their influence on normal infant growth. We performed this meta-analysis to assess the safety and benefits of probiotic supplementation in preterm infants. We searched in PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane databases for English references, and in Wanfang, VIP, and CNKI databases for Chinese references. Ultimately, 27 RCTs (including 9 Chinese articles) were incorporated into this meta-analysis. Relative risk (RR) and weighted mean difference (WMD) were calculated using a random-effects or fixed-effects model, depending on the data type and heterogeneity. A total of 6655 preterm infants, including the probiotic group (n=3298) and the placebo group (n=3357), were eligible for inclusion in this meta-analysis. For Bell stage ≥I and gestational age <37 weeks, risk of NEC incidence was significantly lower in the probiotic group [RR=0.35, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.27-0.44, P<0.00001]. For Bell stage ≥II or gestational age <34 weeks, there were likewise significant differences between the probiotic and placebo groups concerning NEC incidence (RR=0.34, 95%CI=0.25-0.48, P<0.00001; and RR=0.39, 95%CI=0.27-0.56, P<0.00001). Risk of death was significantly reduced in the probiotic group (RR=0.58, 95%CI=0.46-0.75, P<0.0001). In contrast, there was no significant difference concerning the risk of sepsis (RR=0.94, 95%CI=0.83-1.06, P=0.31). With respect to weight gain and the age at which infants reached full feeds, no significant differences were found between the probiotic and placebo groups (WMD=1.07, 95%CI=−0.21-2.34, P=0.10; and WMD=−1.66, 95%CI=−3.6-0.27, P=0.09). This meta-analysis has shown that, regardless of gestational age and NEC stage, probiotic supplementation could significantly reduce the risk of NEC in preterm infants. Analysis also indicated that such supplementation did not increase the incidence risk of sepsis or of mortality. Finally, the study showed that probiotic supplementation may have no adverse effect on normal feeding and growth.

Effect of the implementation of the Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point (HACCP) prerequisite program in an institutional foodservice unit in Southern Brazil

The aims of this study were to investigate the hygienic practices in the food production of an institutional foodservice unit in Southern Brazil and to evaluate the effect of implementing good food handling practices and standard operational procedures using microbiological hygiene indicators. An initial survey of the general operating conditions classified the unit as regular in terms of compliance with State safety guidelines for food service establishments. An action plan that incorporated the correction of noncompliance issues and the training of food handlers in good food handling practices and standard operational procedures were then implemented. The results of the microbiological analysis of utensils, preparation surfaces, food handlers' hands, water, and ambient air were recorded before and after the implementation of the action plan. The results showed that the implementation of this type of practice leads to the production of safer foods.

Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) for confectionery manufacturing in developing countries: Turkish delight production as a case study

The Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) was applied for risk assessment of confectionary manufacturing, in whichthe traditional methods and equipment were intensively used in the production. Potential failure modes and effects as well as their possible causes were identified in the process flow. Processing stages that involve intensive handling of food by workers had the highest risk priority numbers (RPN = 216 and 189), followed by chemical contamination risks in different stages of the process. The application of corrective actions substantially reduced the RPN (risk priority number) values. Therefore, the implementation of FMEA (The Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) model in confectionary manufacturing improved the safety and quality of the final products.

Carbon isotope analysis in apple nectar beverages

The aims of this study were to use the isotope analysis method to quantify the carbon of C3 photosynthetic cycle in commercial apple nectars and to determine the legal limit to identify the beverages that do not conform to the safety standards established by the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply. These beverages (apple nectars) were produced in the laboratory according to the Brazilian legislation. Adulterated nectars were also produced with an amount of pulp juice below the permitted threshold limit value. The δ13C values of the apple nectars and their fractions (pulp and purified sugar) were measured to quantify the C3 source percentage. In order to demonstrate the existence of adulteration, the values found were compared to the limit values established by the Brazilian Law. All commercial apple nectars analyzed were within the legal limits, which enabled to identify the nectars that were in conformity with the Brazilian Law. The isotopic methodology developed proved efficient to quantify the carbon of C3 origin in commercial apple nectars.

Hygienic-sanitary working practices and implementation of a Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP) plan in lobster processing industries

This study aimed to verify the hygienic-sanitary working practices and to create and implement a Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point (HACCP) in two lobster processing industries in Pernambuco State, Brazil. The industries studied process frozen whole lobsters, frozen whole cooked lobsters, and frozen lobster tails for exportation. The application of the hygienic-sanitary checklist in the industries analyzed achieved conformity rates over 96% to the aspects evaluated. The use of the Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point (HACCP) plan resulted in the detection of two critical control points (CCPs) including the receiving and classification steps in the processing of frozen lobster and frozen lobster tails, and an additional critical control point (CCP) was detected during the cooking step of processing of the whole frozen cooked lobster. The proper implementation of the Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point (HACCP) plan in the lobster processing industries studied proved to be the safest and most cost-effective method to monitor each critical control point (CCP) hazards.

Electrical Safety of Island Operated Low Voltage DC Network

Today, renewable energy technologies and modern power electronics have made it feasible to implement low voltage direct current (LVDC) microgrids (MGs) ca-pable to island operation. Such LVDC networks are particularly useful in remote areas. However, there are still pending issues in island operated LVDC MGs like electrical safety and controlled operation, which should be addressed before wide-scale implementation. This thesis is focused on the overall protection of an island operated LVDC network concept, including protection against electrical shocks, mains equipment protection and protection of photovoltaic (PV) power sources and battery energy storage systems (BESSs). The topic is approached through ex-amination of the safety hazards and the appropriate methods to protect against them, comprising considerations for earthing system selection and realisation of the protection system.

Analysis of PWR-PACTEL Small Break LOCA experiment using TRACE

Currently, the power generation is one of the most significant life aspects for the whole man-kind. Barely one can imagine our life without electricity and thermal energy. Thus, different technologies for producing those types of energy need to be used. Each of those technologies will always have their own advantages and disadvantages. Nevertheless, every technology must satisfy such requirements as efficiency, ecology safety and reliability. In the matter of the power generation with nuclear energy utilization these requirements needs to be highly main-tained, especially since accidents on nuclear power plants may cause very long term deadly consequences. In order to prevent possible disasters related to the accident on a nuclear power plant strong and powerful algorithms were invented in last decades. Such algorithms are able to manage calculations of different physical processes and phenomena of real facilities. How-ever, the results acquired by the computing must be verified with experimental data.

Power Electronic Converters in Low-Voltage Direct Current Distribution – Analysis and Implementation

Over the recent years, smart grids have received great public attention. Many proposed functionalities rely on power electronics, which play a key role in the smart grid, together with the communication network. However, “smartness” is not the driver that alone motivates the research towards distribution networks based on power electronics; the network vulnerability to natural hazards has resulted in tightening requirements for the supply security, set both by electricity end-users and authorities. Because of the favorable price development and advancements in the field, direct current (DC) distribution has become an attractive alternative for distribution networks. In this doctoral dissertation, power electronic converters for a low-voltage DC (LVDC) distribution system are investigated. These include the rectifier located at the beginning of the LVDC network and the customer-end inverter (CEI) on the customer premises. Rectifier topologies are introduced, and according to the LVDC system requirements, topologies are chosen for the analysis. Similarly, suitable CEI topologies are addressed and selected for study. Application of power electronics into electricity distribution poses some new challenges. Because the electricity end-user is supplied with the CEI, it is responsible for the end-user voltage quality, but it also has to be able to supply adequate current in all operating conditions, including a short-circuit, to ensure the electrical safety. Supplying short-circuit current with power electronics requires additional measures, and therefore, the short-circuit behavior is described and methods to overcome the high-current supply to the fault are proposed. Power electronic converters also produce common-mode (CM) and radio-frequency (RF) electromagnetic interferences (EMI), which are not present in AC distribution. Hence, their magnitudes are investigated. To enable comprehensive research on the LVDC distribution field, a research site was built into a public low-voltage distribution network. The implementation was a joint task by the LVDC research team of Lappeenranta University of Technology and a power company Suur-Savon S¨ahk¨o Oy. Now, the measurements could be conducted in an actual environment. This is important especially for the EMI studies. The main results of the work concern the short-circuit operation of the CEI and the EMI issues. The applicability of the power electronic converters to electricity distribution is demonstrated, and suggestions for future research are proposed.

Bayesian analysis of SEIR epidemic models

This thesis concerns the analysis of epidemic models. We adopt the Bayesian paradigm and develop suitable Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. This is done by considering an Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, former Zaïre, 1995 as a case of SEIR epidemic models. We model the Ebola epidemic deterministically using ODEs and stochastically through SDEs to take into account a possible bias in each compartment. Since the model has unknown parameters, we use different methods to estimate them such as least squares, maximum likelihood and MCMC. The motivation behind choosing MCMC over other existing methods in this thesis is that it has the ability to tackle complicated nonlinear problems with large number of parameters. First, in a deterministic Ebola model, we compute the likelihood function by sum of square of residuals method and estimate parameters using the LSQ and MCMC methods. We sample parameters and then use them to calculate the basic reproduction number and to study the disease-free equilibrium. From the sampled chain from the posterior, we test the convergence diagnostic and confirm the viability of the model. The results show that the Ebola model fits the observed onset data with high precision, and all the unknown model parameters are well identified. Second, we convert the ODE model into a SDE Ebola model. We compute the likelihood function using extended Kalman filter (EKF) and estimate parameters again. The motivation of using the SDE formulation here is to consider the impact of modelling errors. Moreover, the EKF approach allows us to formulate a filtered likelihood for the parameters of such a stochastic model. We use the MCMC procedure to attain the posterior distributions of the parameters of the SDE Ebola model drift and diffusion parts. In this thesis, we analyse two cases: (1) the model error covariance matrix of the dynamic noise is close to zero , i.e. only small stochasticity added into the model. The results are then similar to the ones got from deterministic Ebola model, even if methods of computing the likelihood function are different (2) the model error covariance matrix is different from zero, i.e. a considerable stochasticity is introduced into the Ebola model. This accounts for the situation where we would know that the model is not exact. As a results, we obtain parameter posteriors with larger variances. Consequently, the model predictions then show larger uncertainties, in accordance with the assumption of an incomplete model.

STUDY OF INFLUENCE OF SAFETY ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT PRACTICES IN SELECTED INDUSTRIES IN KERALA

In the twentieth century, as technology grew with it. This resulted in collective efforts and thinking in the direction of controlling work related hazards and accidents. Thus, safety management developed and became an important part of industrial management. While considerable research has been reported on the topic of safety management in industries from various parts of the world, there is scarcity of literature from India. It is logical to think that a clear understanding of the critical safety management practices and their relationships with accident rates and management system certifications would help in the development and implementation of safety management systems. In the first phase of research, a set of six critical safety management practices has been identified based on a thorough review of the prescriptive, practitioner, conceptual and empirical literature. An instrument for measuring the level of practice of these safety conduction a survey using questionnaire in chemical/process industry. The instrument has been empirically validated using Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) approach. As the second step. Predictive validity of safety management practices and the relationship between safety management practices and self-reported accident rates and management system certifications have been investigated using ANOVA. Results of the ANOVA tests show that there is significant difference in the identified safety management practices and the determinants of safety performance have been investigated using Multiple Regression Analysis. The inter-relationships between safety management practices, determinants of safety performance and components of safety performance have been investigated with the help of structural equation modeling. Further investigations into engineering and construction industries reveal that safety climate factors are not stable across industries. However, some factors are found to be common in industries irrespective of the type of industry. This study identifies the critical safety management practices in major accident hazard chemical/process industry from the perspective of employees and the findings empirically support the necessity for obtaining safety specific management system certifications

Investigations on the Dynamics of Combination Maps and the Analysis of Bifurcation in a Discontinuous Logistic Map

This thesis is a study of discrete nonlinear systems represented by one dimensional mappings.As one dimensional interative maps represent Poincarre sections of higher dimensional flows,they offer a convenient means to understand the dynamical evolution of many physical systems.It highlighting the basic ideas of deterministic chaos.Qualitative and quantitative measures for the detection and characterization of chaos in nonlinear systems are discussed.Some simple mathematical models exhibiting chaos are presented.The bifurcation scenario and the possible routes to chaos are explained.It present the results of the numerical computational of the Lyapunov exponents (λ) of one dimensional maps.This thesis focuses on the results obtained by our investigations on combinations maps,scaling behaviour of the Lyapunov characteristic exponents of one dimensional maps and the nature of bifurcations in a discontinous logistic map.It gives a review of the major routes to chaos in dissipative systems,namely, Period-doubling ,Intermittency and Crises.This study gives a theoretical understanding of the route to chaos in discontinous systems.A detailed analysis of the dynamics of a discontinous logistic map is carried out, both analytically and numerically ,to understand the route it follows to chaos.The present analysis deals only with the case of the discontinuity parameter applied to the right half of the interval of mapping.A detailed analysis for the n –furcations of various periodicities can be made and a more general theory for the map with discontinuities applied at different positions can be on a similar footing

Complexity quantification of dense array EEG using sample entropy analysis

n this paper, a time series complexity analysis of dense array electroencephalogram signals is carried out using the recently introduced Sample Entropy (SampEn) measure. This statistic quantifies the regularity in signals recorded from systems that can vary from the purely deterministic to purely stochastic realm. The present analysis is conducted with an objective of gaining insight into complexity variations related to changing brain dynamics for EEG recorded from the three cases of passive, eyes closed condition, a mental arithmetic task and the same mental task carried out after a physical exertion task. It is observed that the statistic is a robust quantifier of complexity suited for short physiological signals such as the EEG and it points to the specific brain regions that exhibit lowered complexity during the mental task state as compared to a passive, relaxed state. In the case of mental tasks carried out before and after the performance of a physical exercise, the statistic can detect the variations brought in by the intermediate fatigue inducing exercise period. This enhances its utility in detecting subtle changes in the brain state that can find wider scope for applications in EEG based brain studies.