Mixture density network training by computation in parameter space

Training Mixture Density Network (MDN) configurations within the NETLAB framework takes time due to the nature of the computation of the error function and the gradient of the error function. By optimising the computation of these functions, so that gradient information is computed in parameter space, training time is decreased by at least a factor of sixty for the example given. Decreased training time increases the spectrum of problems to which MDNs can be practically applied making the MDN framework an attractive method to the applied problem solver.

A Bayesian state space modelling approach to probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting

The generation of very short range forecasts of precipitation in the 0-6 h time window is traditionally referred to as nowcasting. Most existing nowcasting systems essentially extrapolate radar observations in some manner, however, very few systems account for the uncertainties involved. Thus deterministic forecast are produced, which have a limited use when decisions must be made, since they have no measure of confidence or spread of the forecast. This paper develops a Bayesian state space modelling framework for quantitative precipitation nowcasting which is probabilistic from conception. The model treats the observations (radar) as noisy realisations of the underlying true precipitation process, recognising that this process can never be completely known, and thus must be represented probabilistically. In the model presented here the dynamics of the precipitation are dominated by advection, so this is a probabilistic extrapolation forecast. The model is designed in such a way as to minimise the computational burden, while maintaining a full, joint representation of the probability density function of the precipitation process. The update and evolution equations avoid the need to sample, thus only one model needs be run as opposed to the more traditional ensemble route. It is shown that the model works well on both simulated and real data, but that further work is required before the model can be used operationally. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Structural effects in photopolymerized sodium AMPS hydrogels crosslinked with poly(ethylene glycol) diacrylate for use as burn dressings

Synthetic hydrogel polymers were prepared by free radical photopolymerization in aqueous solution of the sodium salt of 2-acrylamido-2-methylpropane sulfonic acid (Na-AMPS). Poly(ethylene glycol) diacrylate (PEGDA) and 4,4'-azo-bis(4-cyanopentanoic acid) were used as the crosslinker and UV-photoinitiator, respectively. The effects of varying the Na-AMPS monomer concentration within the range of 30-50% w/v and the crosslinker concentration within the range of 0.1-1.0% mol (relative to monomer) were studied in terms of their influence on water absorption properties. The hydrogel sheets exhibited extremely high swelling capacities in aqueous media which were dependent on monomer concentration, crosslink density, and the ionic strength and composition of the immersion medium. The effects of varying the number-average molecular weight of the PEGDA crosslinker from = 250 to 700 were also investigated. Interestingly, it was found that increasing the molecular weight and therefore the crosslink length at constant crosslink density decreased both the rate of water absorption and the equilibrium water content. Cytotoxicity testing by the direct contact method with mouse fibroblast L929 cells indicated that the synthesized hydrogels were nontoxic. On the basis of these results, it is considered that photopolymerized Na-AMPS hydrogels crosslinked with PEGDA show considerable potential for biomedical use as dressings for partial thickness burns. This paper describes some structural effects which are relevant to their design as biomaterials for this particular application. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Optimal design for correlated processes with input-dependent noise

Optimal design for parameter estimation in Gaussian process regression models with input-dependent noise is examined. The motivation stems from the area of computer experiments, where computationally demanding simulators are approximated using Gaussian process emulators to act as statistical surrogates. In the case of stochastic simulators, which produce a random output for a given set of model inputs, repeated evaluations are useful, supporting the use of replicate observations in the experimental design. The findings are also applicable to the wider context of experimental design for Gaussian process regression and kriging. Designs are proposed with the aim of minimising the variance of the Gaussian process parameter estimates. A heteroscedastic Gaussian process model is presented which allows for an experimental design technique based on an extension of Fisher information to heteroscedastic models. It is empirically shown that the error of the approximation of the parameter variance by the inverse of the Fisher information is reduced as the number of replicated points is increased. Through a series of simulation experiments on both synthetic data and a systems biology stochastic simulator, optimal designs with replicate observations are shown to outperform space-filling designs both with and without replicate observations. Guidance is provided on best practice for optimal experimental design for stochastic response models. © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Density of Polynomials in the L^2 Space on the Real and the Imaginary Axes and in a Sobolev Space

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 41A10, 30E10, 41A65.

Inverse space-dependent force problems for the wave equation

The determination of the displacement and the space-dependent force acting on a vibrating structure from measured final or time-average displacement observation is thoroughly investigated. Several aspects related to the existence and uniqueness of a solution of the linear but ill-posed inverse force problems are highlighted. After that, in order to capture the solution a variational formulation is proposed and the gradient of the least-squares functional that is minimized is rigorously and explicitly derived. Numerical results obtained using the Landweber method and the conjugate gradient method are presented and discussed illustrating the convergence of the iterative procedures for exact input data. Furthermore, for noisy data the semi-convergence phenomenon appears, as expected, and stability is restored by stopping the iterations according to the discrepancy principle criterion once the residual becomes close to the amount of noise. The present investigation will be significant to researchers concerned with wave propagation and control of vibrating structures.

State-space modelling of geolocation data reveals sex differences in the use of management areas by breeding northern fulmars

We thank Orkney Islands Council for access to Eynhallow and Talisman Energy (UK) Ltd and Marine Scotland for fieldwork and equipment support. Handling and tagging of fulmars was conducted under licences from the British Trust for Ornithology and the UK Home Office. EE was funded by a Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland/University of Aberdeen College of Life Sciences and Medicine studentship and LQ was supported by a NERC Studentship. Thanks also to the many colleagues who assisted with fieldwork during the project, and to Helen Bailey and Arliss Winship for advice on implementing the state-space model.

State-space modelling of geolocation data reveals sex differences in the use of management areas by breeding northern fulmars

We thank Orkney Islands Council for access to Eynhallow and Talisman Energy (UK) Ltd and Marine Scotland for fieldwork and equipment support. Handling and tagging of fulmars was conducted under licences from the British Trust for Ornithology and the UK Home Office. EE was funded by a Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland/University of Aberdeen College of Life Sciences and Medicine studentship and LQ was supported by a NERC Studentship. Thanks also to the many colleagues who assisted with fieldwork during the project, and to Helen Bailey and Arliss Winship for advice on implementing the state-space model.

Facilitators and Barriers to Naloxone Kit Use Among Opioid-Dependent Patients Seeking Treatment at Medication Assisted Therapy Clinics in North Carolina, USA

Naloxone – an opioid antagonist that reverses the effects of opioids, including potential death from overdose – is increasingly being distributed in non-medical settings. We conducted a mixed methods study administering a survey to 100 treatment seekers and pursuing observant participation at four methadone/buprenorphine Medication Assisted Therapy (MAT) clinics in North Carolina, USA. Female participants were more likely to have gotten a kit and to carry it with them, whereas male participants were more likely to have witnessed an overdose and to have made use of naloxone. Men discussed the difficulties of carrying the naloxone kits, which are currently too large to fit in a pocket. Public health officials may be relieved to know that naloxone users intend to call emergency services.

Stromule formation is dependent upon plastid size, plastid differentiation status and the density of plastids within the cell

Stromules are motile extensions of the plastid envelope membrane, whose roles are not fully understood. They are present on all plastid types but are more common and extensive on non-green plastids that are sparsely distributed within the cell. During tomato fruit ripening, chloroplasts in the mesocarp tissue differentiate into chromoplasts and undergo major shifts in morphology. In order to understand what factors regulate stromule formation, we analysed stromule biogenesis in tobacco hypocotyls and in two distinct plastid populations in tomato mesocarp. We show that increases in stromule length and frequency are correlated with chromoplast differentiation, but only in one plastid population where the plastids are larger and less numerous. We used tobacco hypocotyls to confirm that stromule length increases as plastids become further apart, suggesting that stromules optimise the plastid-cytoplasm contact area. Furthermore, we demonstrate that ectopic chloroplast components decrease stromule formation on tomato fruit chromoplasts, whereas preventing chloroplast development leads to increased numbers of stromules. Inhibition of fruit ripening has a dramatic impact on plastid and stromule morphology, underlining that plastid differentiation status, and not cell type, is a significant factor in determining the extent of plastid stromules. By modifying the plastid surface area, we propose that stromules enhance the specific metabolic activities of plastids. This is an electronic version of an Article published in The Plant Journal, August 2004, Volume 39, pp. 655-667. Copyright 2004 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The Society for Experimental Biology.

Atomic resolution studies of oxide superlattices and ultrathin films

The ability to grow ultrathin films layer-by-layer with well-defined epitaxial relationships has allowed research groups worldwide to grow a range of artificial films and superlattices, first for semiconductors, and now with oxides. In the oxides thin film research community, there have been concerted efforts recently to develop a number of epitaxial oxide systems grown on single crystal oxide substrates that display a wide variety of novel interfacial functionality, such as enhanced ferromagnetic ordering, increased charge carrier density, increased optical absorption, etc, at interfaces. The magnitude of these novel properties is dependent upon the structure of thin films, especially interface sharpness, intermixing, defects, and strain, layering sequence in the case of superlattices and the density of interfaces relative to the film thicknesses. To understand the relationship between the interfacial thin film oxide atomic structure and its properties, atomic scale characterization is required. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) offers the ability to study interfaces of films at high resolution. Scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) allows for real space imaging of materials with directly interpretable atomic number contrast. Electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS), together with STEM, can probe the local chemical composition as well as local electronic states of transition metals and oxygen. Both techniques have been significantly improved by aberration correctors, which reduce the probe size to 1 Å, or less. Aberration correctors have thus made it possible to resolve individual atomic columns, and possibly probe the electronic structure at atomic scales. Separately, using electron probe forming lenses, structural information such as the crystal structure, strain, lattice mismatches, and superlattice ordering can be measured by nanoarea electron diffraction (NED). The combination of STEM, EELS, and NED techniques allows us to gain a fundamental understanding of the properties of oxide superlattices and ultrathin films and their relationship with the corresponding atomic and electronic structure. In this dissertation, I use the aforementioned electron microscopy techniques to investigate several oxide superlattice and ultrathin film systems. The major findings are summarized below. These results were obtained with stringent specimen preparation methods that I developed for high resolution studies, which are described in Chapter 2. The essential materials background and description of electron microscopy techniques are given in Chapter 1 and 2. In a LaMnO3-SrMnO3 superlattice, we demonstrate the interface of LaMnO3-SrMnO3 is sharper than the SrMnO3-LaMnO3 interface. Extra spectral weights in EELS are confined to the sharp interface, whereas at the rougher interface, the extra states are either not present or are not confined to the interface. Both the structural and electronic asymmetries correspond to asymmetric magnetic ordering at low temperature. In a short period LaMnO3-SrTiO3 superlattice for optical applications, we discovered a modified band structure in SrTiO3 ultrathin films relative to thick films and a SrTiO3 substrate, due to charge leakage from LaMnO3 in SrTiO3. This was measured by chemical shifts of the Ti L and O K edges using atomic scale EELS. The interfacial sharpness of LaAlO3 films grown on SrTiO3 was investigated by the STEM/EELS technique together with electron diffraction. This interface, when prepared under specific conditions, is conductive with high carrier mobility. Several suggestions for the conductive interface have been proposed, including a polar catastrophe model, where a large built-in electric field in LaAlO3 films results in electron charge transfer into the SrTiO3 substrate. Other suggested possibilities include oxygen vacancies at the interface and/or oxygen vacancies in the substrate. The abruptness of the interface as well as extent of intermixing has not been thoroughly investigated at high resolution, even though this can strongly influence the electrical transport properties. We found clear evidence for cation intermixing through the LaAlO3-SrTiO3 interface with high spatial resolution EELS and STEM, which contributes to the conduction at the interface. We also found structural defects, such as misfit dislocations, which leads to increased intermixing over coherent interfaces.

Participation Space Studies: a socio-technical exploration of activist and community groups’ use of online and offline spaces to support their work

Participation Space Studies explore eParticipation in the day-to-day activities of local, citizen-led groups, working to improve their communities. The focus is the relationship between activities and contexts. The concept of a participation space is introduced in order to reify online and offline contexts where people participate in democracy. Participation spaces include websites, blogs, email, social media presences, paper media, and physical spaces. They are understood as sociotechnical systems: assemblages of heterogeneous elements, with relevant histories and trajectories of development and use. This approach enables the parallel study of diverse spaces, on and offline. Participation spaces are investigated within three case studies, centred on interviews and participant observation. Each case concerns a community or activist group, in Scotland. The participation spaces are then modelled using a Socio-Technical Interaction Network (STIN) framework (Kling, McKim and King, 2003). The participation space concept effectively supports the parallel investigation of the diverse social and technical contexts of grassroots democracy and the relationship between the case-study groups and the technologies they use to support their work. Participants’ democratic participation is supported by online technologies, especially email, and they create online communities and networks around their goals. The studies illustrate the mutual shaping relationship between technology and democracy. Participants’ choice of technologies can be understood in spatial terms: boundaries, inhabitants, access, ownership, and cost. Participation spaces and infrastructures are used together and shared with other groups. Non-public online spaces, such as Facebook groups, are vital contexts for eParticipation; further, the majority of participants’ work is non-public, on and offline. It is informational, potentially invisible, work that supports public outputs. The groups involve people and influence events through emotional and symbolic impact, as well as rational argument. Images are powerful vehicles for this and digital images become an increasingly evident and important feature of participation spaces throughout the consecutively conducted case studies. Collaboration of diverse people via social media indicates that these spaces could be understood as boundary objects (Star and Griesemer, 1989). The Participation Space Studies draw from and contribute to eParticipation, social informatics, mediation, social shaping studies, and ethnographic studies of Internet use.

Dynamic instabilities in scalar neural field equations with space-dependent delays

In this paper we consider a class of scalar integral equations with a form of space-dependent delay. These non-local models arise naturally when modelling neural tissue with active axons and passive dendrites. Such systems are known to support a dynamic (oscillatory) Turing instability of the homogeneous steady state. In this paper we develop a weakly nonlinear analysis of the travelling and standing waves that form beyond the point of instability. The appropriate amplitude equations are found to be the coupled mean-field Ginzburg-Landau equations describing a Turing-Hopf bifurcation with modulation group velocity of O(1). Importantly we are able to obtain the coefficients of terms in the amplitude equations in terms of integral transforms of the spatio-temporal kernels defining the neural field equation of interest. Indeed our results cover not only models with axonal or dendritic delays but those which are described by a more general distribution of delayed spatio-temporal interactions. We illustrate the predictive power of this form of analysis with comparison against direct numerical simulations, paying particular attention to the competition between standing and travelling waves and the onset of Benjamin-Feir instabilities.

Analysis and control of transient spectra using time-dependent density functional theory.

215 p.