929 resultados para bayes theorem
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We prove that for any real number p with 1 p less than or equal to n - 1, the map x/\x\ : B-n --> Sn-1 is the unique minimizer of the p-energy functional integral(Bn) \delu\(p) dx among all maps in W-1,W-p (B-n, Sn-1) with boundary value x on phiB(n).
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In [Haiyin Gao, Ke Wang, Fengying Wei, Xiaohua Ding, Massera-type theorem and asymptotically periodic Logistic equations, Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications 7 (2006) 1268-1283, Lemma 2.1] it is established that a scalar S-asymptotically to-periodic function (that is, a continuous and bounded function f : [0, infinity) -> R such that lim(t ->infinity)(f (t + omega) - f (t)) = 0) is asymptotically omega-periodic. In this note we give two examples to show that this assertion is false. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. Ail rights reserved.
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We discuss the expectation propagation (EP) algorithm for approximate Bayesian inference using a factorizing posterior approximation. For neural network models, we use a central limit theorem argument to make EP tractable when the number of parameters is large. For two types of models, we show that EP can achieve optimal generalization performance when data are drawn from a simple distribution.
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Motivated by the unconventional properties and rich phase diagram of NaxCoO2 we consider the electronic and magnetic properties of a two-dimensional Hubbard model on an isotropic triangular lattice doped with electrons away from half-filling. Dynamical mean-field theory (DMFT) calculations predict that for negative intersite hopping amplitudes (t < 0) and an on-site Coulomb repulsion, U, comparable to the bandwidth, the system displays properties typical of a weakly correlated metal. In contrast, for t > 0 a large enhancement of the effective mass, itinerant ferromagnetism, and a metallic phase with a Curie-Weiss magnetic susceptibility are found in a broad electron doping range. The different behavior encountered is a consequence of the larger noninteracting density of states (DOS) at the Fermi level for t > 0 than for t < 0, which effectively enhances the mass and the scattering amplitude of the quasiparticles. The shape of the DOS is crucial for the occurrence of ferromagnetism as for t > 0 the energy cost of polarizing the system is much smaller than for t < 0. Our observation of Nagaoka ferromagnetism is consistent with the A-type antiferromagnetism (i.e., ferromagnetic layers stacked antiferromagnetically) observed in neutron scattering experiments on NaxCoO2. The transport and magnetic properties measured in NaxCoO2 are consistent with DMFT predictions of a metal close to the Mott insulator and we discuss the role of Na ordering in driving the system towards the Mott transition. We propose that the Curie-Weiss metal phase observed in NaxCoO2 is a consequence of the crossover from a bad metal with incoherent quasiparticles at temperatures T > T-* and Fermi liquid behavior with enhanced parameters below T-*, where T-* is a low energy coherence scale induced by strong local Coulomb electron correlations. Our analysis also shows that the one band Hubbard model on a triangular lattice is not enough to describe the unusual properties of NaxCoO2 and is used to identify the simplest relevant model that captures the essential physics in NaxCoO2. We propose a model which allows for the Na ordering phenomena observed in the system which, we propose, drives the system close to the Mott insulating phase even at large dopings.
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We identify a test of quantum mechanics versus macroscopic local realism in the form of stochastic electrodynamics. The test uses the steady-state triple quadrature correlations of a parametric oscillator below threshold.
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A program can be refined either by transforming the whole program or by refining one of its components. The refinement of a component is, for the main part, independent of the remainder of the program. However, refinement of a component can depend on the context of the component for information about the variables that are in scope and what their types are. The refinement can also take advantage of additional information, such as any precondition the component can assume. The aim of this paper is to introduce a technique, which we call program window inference, to handle such contextual information during derivations in the refinement calculus. The idea is borrowed from a technique, called window inference, for handling context in theorem proving. Window inference is the primary proof paradigm of the Ergo proof editor. This tool has been extended to mechanize refinement using program window inference. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.
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This paper offers a defense of backwards in time causation models in quantum mechanics. Particular attention is given to Cramer's transactional account, which is shown to have the threefold virtue of solving the Bell problem, explaining the complex conjugate aspect of the quantum mechanical formalism, and explaining various quantum mysteries such as Schrodinger's cat. The question is therefore asked, why has this model not received more attention from physicists and philosophers? One objection given by physicists in assessing Cramer's theory was that it is not testable. This paper seeks to answer this concern by utilizing an argument that backwards causation models entail a fork theory of causal direction. From the backwards causation model together with the fork theory one can deduce empirical predictions. Finally, the objection that this strategy is questionable because of its appeal to philosophy is deflected.
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Fuzzy Bayesian tests were performed to evaluate whether the mother`s seroprevalence and children`s seroconversion to measles vaccine could be considered as ""high"" or ""low"". The results of the tests were aggregated into a fuzzy rule-based model structure, which would allow an expert to influence the model results. The linguistic model was developed considering four input variables. As the model output, we obtain the recommended age-specific vaccine coverage. The inputs of the fuzzy rules are fuzzy sets and the outputs are constant functions, performing the simplest Takagi-Sugeno-Kang model. This fuzzy approach is compared to a classical one, where the classical Bayes test was performed. Although the fuzzy and classical performances were similar, the fuzzy approach was more detailed and revealed important differences. In addition to taking into account subjective information in the form of fuzzy hypotheses it can be intuitively grasped by the decision maker. Finally, we show that the Bayesian test of fuzzy hypotheses is an interesting approach from the theoretical point of view, in the sense that it combines two complementary areas of investigation, normally seen as competitive. (C) 2007 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Emotional liability and mood dysregulation characterize bipolar disorder (BID), yet no study has examined effective connectivity between parahippocampal gyrus and prefrontal cortical regions in ventromedial and dorsal/lateral neural systems subserving mood regulation in BD. Participants comprised 46 individuals (age range: 18-56 years): 21 with a DSM-IV diagnosis of BID, type I currently remitted; and 25 age- and gender-matched healthy controls (HC). Participants performed an event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging paradigm, viewing mild and intense happy and neutral faces. We employed dynamic causal modeling (I)CM) to identify significant alterations in effective connectivity between BD and HC. Bayes model selection was used to determine the best model. The right parahippocampal gyrus (PHG) and right subgenual cingulate gyrus (sgCG) were included as representative regions of the ventromedial neural system. The right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) region was included as representative of the dorsal/lateral neural system. Right PHG-sgCG effective connectivity was significantly greater in BD than HC, reflecting more rapid, forward PHG-sgCG signaling in BD than HC. There was no between-group difference in sgCG-DLPFC effective connectivity. In BD, abnormally increased right PHG-sgCG effective connectivity and reduced right PHG activity to emotional stimuli suggest a dysfunctional ventromedial neural system implicated in early stimulus appraisal, encoding and automatic regulation of emotion that may represent a pathophysiological functional neural mechanism for mood dysregulation in BD. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
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A k-star is the graph K-1,K-k. We prove a general theorem about k-star factorizations of Cayley graphs. This is used to give necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of k-star factorizations of any power (K-q)(S) of a complete graph with prime power order q, products C-r1 x C-r2 x ... x C-rk of k cycles of arbitrary lengths, and any power (C-r)(S) of a cycle of arbitrary length. (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Whether contemporary human populations are still evolving as a result of natural selection has been hotly debated. For natural selection to cause evolutionary change in a trait, variation in the trait must be correlated with fitness and be genetically heritable and there must be no genetic constraints to evolution. These conditions have rarely been tested in human populations. In this study, data from a large twin cohort were used to assess whether selection Will cause a change among women in contemporary Western population for three life-history traits: age at menarche, age at first reproduction, and age at menopause. We control for temporal variation in fecundity (the baby boom phenomenon) and differences between women in educational background and religious affiliation. University-educated women have 35% lower fitness than those with less than seven years education, and Roman Catholic women have about 20% higher fitness than those of other religions. Although these differences were significant, education and religion only accounted for 2% and 1% of variance in fitness, respectively. Using structural equation modeling, we reveal significant genetic influences for all three life-history traits, with heritability estimates of 0.50, 0.23, and 0.45, respectively. However, strong genetic covariation with reproductive fitness could only be demonstrated for age at first reproduction, with much weaker covariation for age at menopause and no significant covariation for age at menarche. Selection may, therefore, lead to the evolution of earlier age at first reproduction in this population. We also estimate substantial heritable variation in fitness itself, with approximately 39% of the variance attributable to additive genetic effects, the remainder consisting of unique environmental effects and small effects from education and religion. We discuss mechanisms that could be maintaining such a high heritability for fitness. Most likely is that selection is now acting on different traits from which it did in pre-industrial human populations.
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1. Parasitoids are predicted to spend longer in patches with more hosts, but previous work on Cotesia rubecula (Marshall) has not upheld this prediction, Tests of theoretical predictions may be affected by the definition of patch leaving behaviour, which is often ambiguous. 2. In this study whole plants were considered as patches and assumed that wasps move within patches by means of walking or flying. Within-patch and between-patch flights were distinguished based on flight distance. The quality of this classification was tested statistically by examination of log-survivor curves of flight times. 3. Wasps remained longer in patches with higher host densities, which is consistent with predictions of the marginal value theorem (Charnov 1976). tinder the assumption that each flight indicates a patch departure, there is no relationship between host density and leaving tendency. 4. Oviposition influences the patch leaving behaviour of wasps in a count down fashion (Driessen et al. 1995), as predicted by an optimal foraging model (Tenhumberg, Keller & Possingham 2001). 5. Wasps spend significantly longer in the first patch encountered following release, resulting in an increased rate of superparasitism.
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Applied econometricians often fail to impose economic regularity constraints in the exact form economic theory prescribes. We show how the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) Theorem and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods can be used to rigorously impose time- and firm-varying equality and inequality constraints. To illustrate the technique we estimate a system of translog input demand functions subject to all the constraints implied by economic theory, including observation-varying symmetry and concavity constraints. Results are presented in the form of characteristics of the estimated posterior distributions of functions of the parameters. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.
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In this paper, we present a new unified approach and an elementary proof of a very general theorem on the existence of a semicontinuous or continuous utility function representing a preference relation. A simple and interesting new proof of the famous Debreu Gap Lemma is given. In addition, we prove a new Gap Lemma for the rational numbers and derive some consequences. We also prove a theorem which characterizes the existence of upper semicontinuous utility functions on a preordered topological space which need not be second countable. This is a generalization of the classical theorem of Rader which only gives sufficient conditions for the existence of an upper semicontinuous utility function for second countable topological spaces. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.