Financial fragility, trade credit and contagion effects during the crisis: a spatial econometric approach to firm-level data

The number of distressed manufacturing firms increased sharply during recessionary phase 2009-13. Financial indebtness traditionally plays a key role in assessing firm solvency but contagion effects that originate from the supply chain are usually neglected in literature. Firm interconnections, captured via the trade credit channel, represent a primary vehicle of individual shocks’ propagation, especially during an economic downturn, when liquidity tensions arise. A representative sample of 11,920 Italian manufacturing firms is considered to model a two-step econometric design, where chain reactions in terms of trade credit accumulation (i.e. default of payments to suppliers) are primarily analyzed by resorting to a spatial autoregressive approach (SAR). Spatial interactions are modeled based on a unique dataset of firm-to-firm transactions registered before the outbreak of the crisis. The second step in instead a binary outcome model where trade credit chains are considered together with data on the bank-firm relationship to assess determinants of distress likelihoods in 2009-13. Results show that outstanding trade debt is affected by the liquidity position of a firm and by positive spatial effects. Trade credit chain reactions are found to exert, in turn, a positive impact on distress likelihoods during the crisis. The latter effect is comparable in magnitude to the one exerted by individual financial rigidity, and stresses the importance to include complex interactions between firms in the analysis of the solvency behavior.

Novel Photochemical Methodologies For Diversity Oriented Synthesis And Screening Of Combinatorial Libraries

The main goal of this project was to develop an efficient methodology allowing rapid access to structurally diverse scaffolds decorated with various functional groups. Initially, we discovered and subsequently developed an experimentally straightforward, high-yielding photoinduced conversion of readily accessible diverse starting materials into polycyclic aldehydes and their (hemi)acetals decorated by various pendants. The two step sequence, involving the Diels-Alder addition of heterocyclic chalcones and other benzoyl ethylenes to a variety of dienes, followed by the Paternò-Büchi reaction, was described as an alkene-carbonyl oxametathesis. This methodology offers a rapid increase in molecular complexity and diversity of the target scaffolds. To develop this novel methodology further and explore its generality, we directed our attention to the Diels-Alder adducts based on various chromones. We discovered that the Diels-Alder adducts of chromones are capable of photoinduced alkene-arene [2+2] cycloaddition producing different dienes, which can either dimerize or be introduced into a double-tandem [4π+2π]·[2π+2π]·[4π+2π]·[2π+2π] synthetic sequence, followed by an acid-catalyzed oxametathesis, leading to a rapid expansion of molecular complexity over a few experimentally simple steps. In view of the fact that oxametathesis previously was primarily observed in aromatic oxetanes, we decided to prepare model aliphatic oxetanes with a conformationally unconstrained or "flexible" methyl group based on the Diels-Alder adducts of cyclohexadiene or cyclopentadiene with methyl vinyl ketone. Upon addition of an acid, the expected oxametathesis occurred with results similar to those observed in the aromatic series proving the generality of this approach. Also we synthesized polycyclic oxetanes resulting from the Diels-Alder adducts of cyclic ketones. This not only gave us access to remarkably strained oxetane systems, but also the mechanism for their protolytic ring opening provided a great deal of insight to how the strain affects the reactivity. Additionally, we discovered that although the model Hetero-Diels-Alder adducts did not undergo [2+2] cycloaddition, both exo- and endo-Sulfa-Diels-Alder products, nonetheless, were photochemically active and various products with defined stereochemistry could be produced upon photolysis. In conclusion, we have developed an approach to the encoding and screening of solution phase libraries based on the photorelease of externally sensitized photolabile tags. The encoding tags can be released into solution only when a binding event occurs between the ligand and the receptor, equipped with an electron transfer sensitizer. The released tags are analyzed in solution revealing the identity of the lead ligand or narrowing the range of potential leads.

Estudo e implementação de sinais de excitação aplicados em identificação de sistemas multivariáveis.

Devido à crescente implementação do Controle Preditivo baseado em Modelo (MPC) em outros processos além de refino e plantas petroquímicas, que geralmente possuem múltiplas entradas e saídas, tem-se um aumento na demanda de modelos gerados por identificação de sistemas. Identificar modelos que representem fielmente a dinâmica do processo depende em grande medida das características dos sinais de excitação dos processos. Assim, o foco deste trabalho é realizar um estudo dos sinais típicos usados em identificação de sistemas, PRBS e GBN, em uma abordagem multivariável. O estudo feito neste trabalho parte das características da geração dos sinais individualmente, depois é feita uma análise de correlação cruzada dos sinais de entrada, observando a influência desta sobre os resultados de identificação. Evitar uma alta correlação entre os sinais de entrada permite determinar o efeito de cada entrada sobre a saída no processo de identificação. Um ponto importante no projeto de sinais de identificação de sistemas multivariáveis é a frequência dos mesmos para conseguir excitar os processos nas regiões de frequência de operação normal e assim extrair a maior informação dinâmica possível do processo. As características estudadas são avaliadas por meio de testes em três plantas simuladas diferentes, categorizadas como mal, medianamente e bem condicionadas. Estas implementações foram feitas usando sinais GBN e PRBS de diferentes frequências. Expressões para a caracterização dos sinais de excitação foram avaliadas identificando os processos em malha aberta e malha fechada. Para as plantas mal condicionadas foram implementados sinais compostos por uma parte completamente correlacionada e uma parte não-correlacionada, conhecido como método de dois passos. Finalmente são realizados experimentos de identificação em uma aplicação em tempo real de uma planta piloto de neutralização de pH. Os testes realizados na planta foram feitos visando avaliar os estudos de frequência e correlação em uma aplicaficção real. Os resultados mostram que a condição de sinais completamente descorrelacionados n~ao deve ser cumprida para ter bons resultados nos modelos identificados. Isto permite ter mais exibilidade na geração do conjunto de sinais de excitação.

Systematic investigation of projectile fragmentation using beams of unstable B and C isotopes

Background: Models describing nuclear fragmentation and fragmentation fission deliver important input for planning nuclear physics experiments and future radioactive ion beam facilities. These models are usually benchmarked against data from stable beam experiments. In the future, two-step fragmentation reactions with exotic nuclei as stepping stones are a promising tool for reaching the most neutron-rich nuclei, creating a need for models to describe also these reactions. Purpose: We want to extend the presently available data on fragmentation reactions towards the light exotic region on the nuclear chart. Furthermore, we want to improve the understanding of projectile fragmentation especially for unstable isotopes. Method: We have measured projectile fragments from (10,12-18C) and B10-15 isotopes colliding with a carbon target. These measurements were all performed within one experiment, which gives rise to a very consistent data set. We compare our data to model calculations. Results: One-proton removal cross sections with different final neutron numbers (1 pxn) for relativistic C-10,C-12-18 and B10-15 isotopes impinging on a carbon target. Comparing model calculations to the data, we find that the EPAX code is not able to describe the data satisfactorily. Using ABRABLA07 on the other hand, we find that the average excitation energy per abraded nucleon needs to be decreased from 27 MeV to 8.1 MeV. With that decrease ABRABLA07 describes the data surprisingly well. Conclusions: Extending the available data towards light unstable nuclei with a consistent set of new data has allowed a systematic investigation of the role of the excitation energy induced in projectile fragmentation. Most striking is the apparent mass dependence of the average excitation energy per abraded nucleon. Nevertheless, this parameter, which has been related to final-state interactions, requires further study.

Real time optimization in chemical process: evaluation of strategies, improvements and industrial application.

The increasing economic competition drives the industry to implement tools that improve their processes efficiencies. The process automation is one of these tools, and the Real Time Optimization (RTO) is an automation methodology that considers economic aspects to update the process control in accordance with market prices and disturbances. Basically, RTO uses a steady-state phenomenological model to predict the process behavior, and then, optimizes an economic objective function subject to this model. Although largely implemented in industry, there is not a general agreement about the benefits of implementing RTO due to some limitations discussed in the present work: structural plant/model mismatch, identifiability issues and low frequency of set points update. Some alternative RTO approaches have been proposed in literature to handle the problem of structural plant/model mismatch. However, there is not a sensible comparison evaluating the scope and limitations of these RTO approaches under different aspects. For this reason, the classical two-step method is compared to more recently derivative-based methods (Modifier Adaptation, Integrated System Optimization and Parameter estimation, and Sufficient Conditions of Feasibility and Optimality) using a Monte Carlo methodology. The results of this comparison show that the classical RTO method is consistent, providing a model flexible enough to represent the process topology, a parameter estimation method appropriate to handle measurement noise characteristics and a method to improve the sample information quality. At each iteration, the RTO methodology updates some key parameter of the model, where it is possible to observe identifiability issues caused by lack of measurements and measurement noise, resulting in bad prediction ability. Therefore, four different parameter estimation approaches (Rotational Discrimination, Automatic Selection and Parameter estimation, Reparametrization via Differential Geometry and classical nonlinear Least Square) are evaluated with respect to their prediction accuracy, robustness and speed. The results show that the Rotational Discrimination method is the most suitable to be implemented in a RTO framework, since it requires less a priori information, it is simple to be implemented and avoid the overfitting caused by the Least Square method. The third RTO drawback discussed in the present thesis is the low frequency of set points update, this problem increases the period in which the process operates at suboptimum conditions. An alternative to handle this problem is proposed in this thesis, by integrating the classic RTO and Self-Optimizing control (SOC) using a new Model Predictive Control strategy. The new approach demonstrates that it is possible to reduce the problem of low frequency of set points updates, improving the economic performance. Finally, the practical aspects of the RTO implementation are carried out in an industrial case study, a Vapor Recompression Distillation (VRD) process located in Paulínea refinery from Petrobras. The conclusions of this study suggest that the model parameters are successfully estimated by the Rotational Discrimination method; the RTO is able to improve the process profit in about 3%, equivalent to 2 million dollars per year; and the integration of SOC and RTO may be an interesting control alternative for the VRD process.

Using the damage from 2010 Haiti earthquake for calibrating vulnerability models of typical structures in Port-au-Prince (Haiti)

After the 2010 Haiti earthquake, that hits the city of Port-au-Prince, capital city of Haiti, a multidisciplinary working group of specialists (seismologist, geologists, engineers and architects) from different Spanish Universities and also from Haiti, joined effort under the SISMO-HAITI project (financed by the Universidad Politecnica de Madrid), with an objective: Evaluation of seismic hazard and risk in Haiti and its application to the seismic design, urban planning, emergency and resource management. In this paper, as a first step for a structural damage estimation of future earthquakes in the country, a calibration of damage functions has been carried out by means of a two-stage procedure. After compiling a database with observed damage in the city after the earthquake, the exposure model (building stock) has been classified and through an iteratively two-step calibration process, a specific set of damage functions for the country has been proposed. Additionally, Next Generation Attenuation Models (NGA) and Vs30 models have been analysed to choose the most appropriate for the seismic risk estimation in the city. Finally in a next paper, these functions will be used to estimate a seismic risk scenario for a future earthquake.

Screen-printed electrode-based electrochemical detector coupled with in-situ ionic-liquid-assisted dispersive liquid–liquid microextraction for determination of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene

A novel method is reported, whereby screen-printed electrodes (SPELs) are combined with dispersive liquid–liquid microextraction. In-situ ionic liquid (IL) formation was used as an extractant phase in the microextraction technique and proved to be a simple, fast and inexpensive analytical method. This approach uses miniaturized systems both in sample preparation and in the detection stage, helping to develop environmentally friendly analytical methods and portable devices to enable rapid and onsite measurement. The microextraction method is based on a simple metathesis reaction, in which a water-immiscible IL (1-hexyl-3-methylimidazolium bis[(trifluoromethyl)sulfonyl]imide, [Hmim][NTf2]) is formed from a water-miscible IL (1-hexyl-3-methylimidazolium chloride, [Hmim][Cl]) and an ion-exchange reagent (lithium bis[(trifluoromethyl)sulfonyl]imide, LiNTf2) in sample solutions. The explosive 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene (TNT) was used as a model analyte to develop the method. The electrochemical behavior of TNT in [Hmim][NTf2] has been studied in SPELs. The extraction method was first optimized by use of a two-step multivariate optimization strategy, using Plackett–Burman and central composite designs. The method was then evaluated under optimum conditions and a good level of linearity was obtained, with a correlation coefficient of 0.9990. Limits of detection and quantification were 7 μg L−1 and 9 μg L−1, respectively. The repeatability of the proposed method was evaluated at two different spiking levels (20 and 50 μg L−1), and coefficients of variation of 7 % and 5 % (n = 5) were obtained. Tap water and industrial wastewater were selected as real-world water samples to assess the applicability of the method.

Handling of Uncertainty in Life Cycle Inventory by Correlated Multivariate Lognormal Distributions: Application to the Design of Supply Chain Networks

Poster presented in the 24th European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering (ESCAPE 24), Budapest, Hungary, June 15-18, 2014.

Detection and mapping of burnt areas from time series of MODIS-derived NDVI data in a Mediterranean region

Moderate resolution remote sensing data, as provided by MODIS, can be used to detect and map active or past wildfires from daily records of suitable combinations of reflectance bands. The objective of the present work was to develop and test simple algorithms and variations for automatic or semiautomatic detection of burnt areas from time series data of MODIS biweekly vegetation indices for a Mediterranean region. MODIS-derived NDVI 250m time series data for the Valencia region, East Spain, were subjected to a two-step process for the detection of candidate burnt areas, and the results compared with available fire event records from the Valencia Regional Government. For each pixel and date in the data series, a model was fitted to both the previous and posterior time series data. Combining drops between two consecutive points and 1-year average drops, we used discrepancies or jumps between the pre and post models to identify seed pixels, and then delimitated fire scars for each potential wildfire using an extension algorithm from the seed pixels. The resulting maps of the detected burnt areas showed a very good agreement with the perimeters registered in the database of fire records used as reference. Overall accuracies and indices of agreement were very high, and omission and commission errors were similar or lower than in previous studies that used automatic or semiautomatic fire scar detection based on remote sensing. This supports the effectiveness of the method for detecting and mapping burnt areas in the Mediterranean region.

Handling of Uncertainty in Life Cycle Inventory by Correlated Multivariate Lognormal Distributions: Application to the Design of Supply Chain Networks

In this work, we analyze the effect of incorporating life cycle inventory (LCI) uncertainty on the multi-objective optimization of chemical supply chains (SC) considering simultaneously their economic and environmental performance. To this end, we present a stochastic multi-scenario mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) coupled with a two-step transformation scenario generation algorithm with the unique feature of providing scenarios where the LCI random variables are correlated and each one of them has the desired lognormal marginal distribution. The environmental performance is quantified following life cycle assessment (LCA) principles, which are represented in the model formulation through standard algebraic equations. The capabilities of our approach are illustrated through a case study of a petrochemical supply chain. We show that the stochastic solution improves the economic performance of the SC in comparison with the deterministic one at any level of the environmental impact, and moreover the correlation among environmental burdens provides more realistic scenarios for the decision making process.

Female Labour Force Participation and Economic Development in Southern Mediterranean Countries: What scenarios for 2030? MEDPRO Technical Report No. 19/December 2012

This paper investigates the relationship between female labour force participation rates and economic growth in southern Mediterranean countries. A two-step methodology involving econometric estimations and the use of a general equilibrium model was used for this purpose. The econometric estimations suggest that there is a U-shaped relationship between economic growth and female labour force participation rates and they indicate the presence of region-specific barriers impeding women's entry into the labour force in southern Mediterranean countries. The econometric results were fed into a general equilibrium model, the GEM-E3-MEDPRO, which was used to simulate two alternative assumptions on developments in female labour participation rates in the region up to 2030. The first of these simulated changes in female labour force participation rates arising from income level trends projected for the period 2015–2030 in southern Mediterranean countries. The second assumed the lowering of region-specific barriers which deter female labour force participation. The results of these simulations suggest that lower female labour force participation rates may lead to marginally lower economic growth in the region, while the removal of region-specific barriers to female labour force participation may encourage economic growth. This has important policy implications, suggesting that policies intended to remove such barriers could help to promote the growth of the region's economies.

(Table1) Sedimentation rates and age-control points form ODP Hole 152-919A

Planktic d18O and d13C records and point count records of biogenic, volcanic, and nonvolcanic terrigenous [ice-rafted debris (IRD)] sediment components from Hole 919A in the Irminger basin, northern North Atlantic provide a comprehensive dataset from which a paleoceanographic reconstruction for the last 630 kyr has been developed. The paleoceanographic evolution of the Irminger basin during this time contains both long-term patterns and significant developmental steps. One long-term pattern observed is the persistent deposition of hematite-stained ice-rafted debris. This record suggests that the modern and late Pleistocene discharges of icebergs from northern redbed regions to the Irminger Sea lie in the low end of the range observed over the last 630 kyr. In addition, Arctic front fluctuations appear to have been the main controlling factor on the long-term accumulation patterns of IRD and planktic biogenic groups. The Hole 919A sediment record also contains a long-term association between felsic volcanic ash abundances and light d18O excursions in both interglacial and glacial stages, which suggests a causal link between deglaciations and explosive Icelandic eruptions. A significant developmental step in the paleoceanographic reconstruction based on benthic evidence was for diminished supply of Denmark Strait Overflow Water (DSOW) beginning at ~380 ka, possibly initiated by the influx of meltwater from broad-scale iceberg discharges along the east Greenland coast. There is also planktic evidence of a two-step cooling of sea surface conditions in the Irminger basin, first at ~338-309 ka and later at ~211-190 ka, after which both glacials and interglacials were colder as the Arctic front migrated southeast of Site 919. In addition to offering these findings, this reconstruction provides a longer-term geologic context for the interpretation of more recent paleoceanographic events and patterns of deposition from this region.

Exact solution, scaling behaviour and quantum dynamics of a model of an atom-molecule Bose-Einstein condensate

0We study the exact solution for a two-mode model describing coherent coupling between atomic and molecular Bose-Einstein condensates (BEC), in the context of the Bethe ansatz. By combining an asymptotic and numerical analysis, we identify the scaling behaviour of the model and determine the zero temperature expectation value for the coherence and average atomic occupation. The threshold coupling for production of the molecular BEC is identified as the point at which the energy gap is minimum. Our numerical results indicate a parity effect for the energy gap between ground and first excited state depending on whether the total atomic number is odd or even. The numerical calculations for the quantum dynamics reveals a smooth transition from the atomic to the molecular BEC.

General practitioners' role in preventive medicine: scenario analysis using alcohol as a case study

The purpose of this analysis is threefold: first, to extract from the literature, current levels of GP detection of at-risk drinking by their patients, rates at which general practitioners (GPs) offer an intervention; and the effectiveness of these interventions; secondly, to develop a model based on this literature to be used in conjunction with scenario analysis; and thirdly, to consider the cost implications of current efforts and various scenarios. This study deals specifically with Australian general practice. A two-step procedure is used in the scenario analysis, which involves identifying opportunities for detection, intervention, effectiveness and assigning probabilities to outcomes. The results suggest that increasing rates of GP intervention achieves greatest benefit and return on resource use. For every 5% point increase in the rate of GP intervention, an additional 26 754 at-risk drinkers modify their drinking behaviour at a cost of $231.45 per patient. This compares with a cost per patient modifying drinking behaviour of $232.60 and $208.31 for every 5% point increase in the rates of detection and effectiveness, respectively. The knowledge, skill and attitude of practitioners toward drinking are significant, and they can be the prime motivators in persuading their patients to modify drinking behaviour.

Modelling of entrainment in industrial flotation cells: the effect of solids suspension

Solids concentration and particle size distribution gradually change in the vertical dimension of industrial flotation cells, subject primarily to the flotation cell size and design and the cell operating conditions. As entrainment is a two-step process and involves only the suspended solids in the top pulp region near the pulp-froth interface, the solids suspension characteristics have a significant impact on the overall entrainment. In this paper, a classification function is proposed to describe the state of solids suspension in flotation cells, similar to the definition of degree of entrainment for classification in the froth phase found in the literature. A mathematical model for solids suspension is also developed, in which the classification function is expressed as an exponential function of the particle size. Experimental data collected from three different Outokumpu tank flotation cells in three different concentrators are well fitted by the proposed exponential model. Under the prevailing experimental conditions, it was found that the solids content in the top region was relatively independent of cell operating conditions such as froth height and air rate but dependent on the cell size. Moreover, the results obtained from the total solids tend to be similar to those from a particular gangue mineral and hence may be applied to all minerals in entrainment calculation. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.