Risk attitude, planting conditions and the value of seasonal forecasts to a dryland wheat grower

The value of a seasonal forecasting system based on phases of the Southern Oscillation was estimated for a representative dryland wheat grower in the vicinity of Goondiwindi. In particular the effects on this estimate of risk attitude and planting conditions were examined. A recursive stochastic programming approach was used to identify the grower's utility-maximising action set in the event of each of the climate patterns over the period 1894-1991 recurring In the imminent season. The approach was repeated with and without use of the forecasts. The choices examined were, at planting, nitrogen application rate and cultivar and, later in the season, choices of proceeding with or abandoning each wheat activity, The value of the forecasting system was estimated as the maximum amount the grower could afford to pay for its use without expected utility being lowered relative to its non use.

Strategic trade policy under uncertainty: Sufficient conditions for the optimality of ad valorem, specific and quadratic trade taxes

In most previous work on strategic trade policy the form of government intervention has been prescribed in advance. In this paper, we apply a solution concept discussed by Klemperer and Meyer for games in which the strategy space consists of the class of all (non state-contingent) price quantity schedules. We examine a series of specific assumptions on demand and supply conditions and derive the associated equilibrium trade policies. We derive welfare implications for all cases examined.

The effects of perfusion conditions on melphalan distribution in the isolated perfused rat hindlimb bearing a human melanoma xenograft

An isolated rat hindlimb perfusion model carrying xenografts of the human melanoma cell line MM96 was used to study the effects of perfusion conditions on melphalan distribution. Krebs-Henseleit buffer and Hartmann's solution containing 4.7% bovine serum albumin (BSA) or 2.8% dextran 40 were used as perfusates. Melphalan concentrations in perfusate, tumour nodules and normal tissues were measured using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Increasing the perfusion flow rates (from 4 to 8 mi min(-1)) resulted in higher tissue blood flow (determined with Cr-51-labelled microspheres) and melphalan uptake by tumour and normal tissues. me distribution of melphalan within tumour nodules and normal tissues was similar for both Krebs-Henseleit buffer and Hartmann's solution; however, tissue concentrations of melphalan were significantly higher for a perfusate containing 2.8% dextran 40 than for one containing 4.7% BSA. The melphalan concentration in the tumour was one-third of that found in the skin if the perfusate contained 4.7% BSA. In conclusion, this study has shown that a high perfusion flow enhances the delivery of melphalan into implanted tumour nodules and normal tissues, and a perfusate with low melphalan binding (no albumin) is preferred for maximum uptake of drug by the tumour.

Effect of milling conditions on the synthesis of chromium carbides by mechanical alloying

The synthesis of chromium carbides, Cr7C3 and Cr3C2, by mechanically allowing chromium and carbon powders has been investigated. Milling conditions were found to have a strong influence on the evolution of microstructure, with high collision energies being required to form carbide phases. Milling at intermediate energy levels resulted in the formation of an amorphous phase, and with low energy conditions only grain size refinement of Cr occurred with no evidence of any reaction between Cr and C. The amorphous phase was found to be the precursor to carbide formation. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science S.A.

Testing market efficiency: Evidence from the NFL sports betting market

This article examines the efficiency of the National Football League (NFL) betting market. The standard ordinary least squares (OLS) regression methodology is replaced by a probit model. This circumvents potential econometric problems, and allows us to implement more sophisticated betting strategies where bets are placed only when there is a relatively high probability of success. In-sample tests indicate that probit-based betting strategies generate statistically significant profits. Whereas the profitability of a number of these betting strategies is confirmed by out-of-sample testing, there is some inconsistency among the remaining out-of-sample predictions. Our results also suggest that widely documented inefficiencies in this market tend to dissipate over time.

Lymphocyte proliferation testing in chromium allergic contact dermatitis

Background. Lymphocyte proliferation testing (LPT) has some advantages over patch testing to diagnose allergic contact dermatitis. It is harmless, objective and can be used in clinical situations where patch testing is not recommended. Unfortunately, significant success has only been achieved with nickel. There are few studies on chromium LPT and they were performed with different methods, leading to inconsistent results. Methods. To determine the best parameters for chromium LPT, we tested 20 patients with allergic contact dermatitis to the metal and 20 controls, using various protocols. Results. The best sensitivity and specificity ratios were achieved with 6-day cultures stimulated with a range from 7.5 x 10(-4) to 5 x 10(-3) mol/L of nonfiltered chromium chloride solutions. The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy values found within this range were 65%, 95% and 80%, respectively. Conclusion. Further investigation is necessary to achieve better sensitivity values.

A Bayesian approach to fuzzy hypotheses testing for the estimation of optimal age for vaccination against measles

Fuzzy Bayesian tests were performed to evaluate whether the mother`s seroprevalence and children`s seroconversion to measles vaccine could be considered as ""high"" or ""low"". The results of the tests were aggregated into a fuzzy rule-based model structure, which would allow an expert to influence the model results. The linguistic model was developed considering four input variables. As the model output, we obtain the recommended age-specific vaccine coverage. The inputs of the fuzzy rules are fuzzy sets and the outputs are constant functions, performing the simplest Takagi-Sugeno-Kang model. This fuzzy approach is compared to a classical one, where the classical Bayes test was performed. Although the fuzzy and classical performances were similar, the fuzzy approach was more detailed and revealed important differences. In addition to taking into account subjective information in the form of fuzzy hypotheses it can be intuitively grasped by the decision maker. Finally, we show that the Bayesian test of fuzzy hypotheses is an interesting approach from the theoretical point of view, in the sense that it combines two complementary areas of investigation, normally seen as competitive. (C) 2007 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Suicidality in Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder: Prevalence and Relation to Symptom Dimensions and Comorbid Conditions

Background: Suicidal thoughts and behaviors, also known as suicidality, are a fairly neglected area of study in patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). Objective: To evaluate several aspects of suicidality in a large multicenter sample of OCD patients and to compare those with and without suicidal ideation, plans, and attempts according to demographic and clinical variables, including symptom dimensions and comorbid disorders. Method: This cross-sectional study included 582 outpatients with primary OCD (DSM-IV) recruited between August 2003 and March 2008 from 7 centers of the Brazilian Research Consortium on Obsessive-Compulsive Spectrum Disorders. The following assessment instruments were used: the Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale, the Dimensional Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale, the Beck Depression and Anxiety Inventories, the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis I Disorders, and 6 specific questions to investigate suicidality. After univariate analyses, logistic regression analyses were performed to adjust the associations between the dependent and explanatory variables for possible confounders. Results: Thirty-six percent of the patients reported lifetime suicidal thoughts, 20% had made suicidal plans, 11% had already attempted suicide, and 10% presented current suicidal thoughts. In the logistic regression, only lifetime major depressive disorder and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) remained independently associated with all aspects of suicidal behaviors. The sexual/religious dimension and comorbid substance use disorders remained associated with suicidal thoughts and plans, while impulse-control disorders were associated with current suicidal thoughts and with suicide plans and attempts. Conclusions: The risk of suicidal behaviors must be carefully investigated in OCD patients, particularly those with symptoms of the sexual/religious dimension and comorbid major depressive disorder, PTSD, substance use disorders, and impulse-control disorders. J Clin Psychiatry 2011;72(1):17-26 (C) Copyright 2011 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Etiological and Clinical Features of Childhood Psychotic Symptoms Results From a Birth Cohort

Context: It has been reported that childhood psychotic symptoms are common in the general population and may signal neurodevelopmental processes that lead to schizophrenia. However, it is not clear whether these symptoms are associated with the same extensive risk factors established for adult schizophrenia. Objective: To examine the construct validity of children`s self-reported psychotic symptoms by testing whether these symptoms share the risk factors and clinical features of adult schizophrenia. Design: Prospective, longitudinal cohort study of a nationally representative birth cohort in Great Britain. Participants: A total of 2232 twelve-year-old children followed up since age 5 years ( retention, 96%). Main Outcome Measure: Children`s self-reported hallucinations and delusions. Results: Children`s psychotic symptoms are familial and heritable and are associated with social risk factors (eg, urbanicity); cognitive impairments at age 5; home-rearing risk factors ( eg, maternal expressed emotion); behavioral, emotional, and educational problems at age 5; and comorbid conditions, including self-harm. Conclusions: The results provide a comprehensive picture of the construct validity of children`s self-reported psychotic symptoms. For researchers, the findings indicate that children who have psychotic symptoms can be recruited for neuroscience research to determine the pathogenesis of schizophrenia. For clinicians, the findings indicate that psychotic symptoms in childhood are often a marker of an impaired developmental process and should be actively assessed.

Biomonitoring genotoxic risks under the urban weather conditions and polluted atmosphere in Santo Andre, SP, Brazil, through Trad-MCN bioassay

The present study was made to check if the Trad-MCN bioassay, developed with inflorescences of Tradescantia pallida cv. Purpurea, might discriminate genotoxic risks in areas of the city of Santo Andre (SE Brazil) contaminated by different air pollutants, and periods of the year when risks are higher, and to determine if the variations in the frequency of micronuclei (MCN) can be explained by environmental factors that characterize the stressful situation in each site. Potted plants were exposed in sites highly contaminated by ozone (Capuava and School) and in sites reached by high vehicular emissions (downtown and Celso Daniel Park). Pedroso Park, far from the polluted areas, was taken as reference. From September 2003 to September 2004, 20 young inflorescences were collected twice a week from each place and the frequencies of MCN were estimated. The environmental conditions observed in the polluted sites were stressful enough to promote an increase of MCN, mainly in sites reached by high vehicular emissions. But MCN rates in Capuava and at Celso Daniel Park could not be predicted only by pollutants which characterized the air contamination in these sites. More severe weather conditions, mainly low temperature, relative humidity and rainfall, caused an increase of MCN. Improvement of the biomonitoring system is recommended to minimize this negative influence of weather factors. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Application of Real-Time PCR Stool Assay for Helicobacter pylori Detection and Clarithromycin Susceptibility Testing in Brazilian Children

Background: Helicobacter pylori ClariRes assay is a novel commercially available real-time PCR assay allowing H. pylori detection and clarithromycin susceptibility testing in either gastric biopsy or stool specimens. Objective: The aim of this study was to validate the novel biprobe real-time assay in stool specimens from 217 dyspeptic children. Methods: DNA from gastric biopsies and stool specimens were obtained and submitted to the biprobe real time assay for H. pylori detection and clarithromycin susceptibility testing. Results: The sensitivity, specificity, and test accuracy were 69, 100 and 93.9% for the detection of H. pylori infection and 83.3, 100 and 95.6%, for detection of clarithromycin resistance. Conclusion: This assay proved to be appropriate for H. pylori clarithromycin susceptibility testing, particularly in children populations where a high prevalence of clarithromycin-resistant strains is suspected.

HER2 Testing in Breast Carcinoma Very Low Concordance Rate Between Reference and Local Laboratories in Brazil

Breast cancer accounts for approximately one quarter of all cancers in females. HER2 gene amplification or HER2 protein overexpression, detected in about 20% of breast carcinomas, predicts a more aggressive clinical course and determines eligibility for targeted therapy with trastuzumab. HER2 testing has become an essential part of the clinical evaluation of all breast carcinoma patients, and accurate HER2 results are critical in identifying patients who may be benefited from targeted therapy. This study investigated the concordance in the results of HER2 immunohistochemistry assays performed in 500 invasive breast carcinomas between a reference laboratory and 149 local laboratories from all geographic regions of Brazil. Our results showed an overall poor concordance (171 of 500 cases, 34.2%) regarding HER2 results between local and reference laboratories, which may be related to the low-volume load of HER2 assays, inexperience with HER2 scoring system, and/or technical issues related to immunohistochemistry in local laboratories. Standardization of HER2 testing with rigorous quality control measures by local laboratories is highly recommended to avoid erroneous treatment of breast cancer patients.

Integrating toxicity testing in the wastewater management of chemical storage terminals - A proposal based on a ten-year study

Wastewater control at storage terminals of liquid chemical products in bulk is very difficult because of the variety of products handled in the facilities generating effluents of variable composition. The main objective of this work was to verify if the Vibrio fischeri acute toxicity test could be routinely included in the wastewater management of those facilities along with physical and chemical analysis in order to evaluate and improve the quality of the generated effluents. The study was performed in two phases before and after the implementation of better operational practices/treatment technologies. Chemical oxygen demand (COD) and toxicity of treated effluents did not correlate showing that effluents with low COD contain toxic substances and non-biodegradable organic matter, which may be not degraded when discharged into the aquatic environment. Segregation of influents or pre-treatment based on toxicity results and biodegradability index were implemented in the facilities generating significant improvements in the quality of final effluents with reduction of Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and toxicity. The integration of physical and chemical analysis with the V.fischeri toxicity test turned out to be an excellent tool for wastewater management in chemical terminals allowing rapid decision making for pollution control and prevention measures. Reuse of rain water was also proposed and when implemented by the facilities resulted in economical and environmental benefits. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

COMBINATION OFGENERAL AND SPECIFICWARM-UPS IMPROVES LEG-PRESS ONE REPETITION MAXIMUM COMPARED WITH SPECIFIC WARM-UP IN TRAINED INDIVIDUALS

Abad, CCC, Prado, ML, Ugrinowitsch, C, Tricoli, V, and Barroso, R. Combination of general and specific warm-ups improves leg-press one repetition maximum compared with specific warm-up in trained individuals. J Strength Cond Res 25(8): 2242-2245, 2011-Accurate assessment of muscular strength is critical for exercise prescription and functional evaluation. The warm-up protocol may affect the precision of the 1 repetition maximum (1RM) test. Testing guidelines recommend performing both general and specific warm-ups before strength tests. The general warm-up intends to raise muscle temperature, whereas the specific warm-up aims to increase neuromuscular activation. Although there is scientific evidence for performing the specific warm-up, the effects of general warm-up on strength tests are still unclear. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether the combination of a general with a specific warm-up (G + SWU) protocol would improve leg press 1RM values compared with a specific warm-up (SWU) protocol. Thirteen participants were tested for leg-press 1RM under 2 warm-up conditions. In the first condition, participants performed the SWU only, which was composed of 1 set of 8 repetitions at approximately 50% of the estimated 1RM followed by another set of 3 repetitions at 70% of the estimated 1RM. In the second condition (G + SWU), participants performed the 1RM test after a 20-minute general warm-up on a stationary bicycle at 60% of HRmax and the same specific warm-up as in the SWU. Values of 1RM in SWU and in G + SWU were compared by a paired t-test, and significance level was set at p <= 0.05. Strength values were on average 8.4% (p = 0.002) higher in the G + SWU compared with the SWU. These results suggest that the G + SWU induced temperature-dependent neuromuscular adjustments that increased muscle force production capacity. Therefore, these results support the recommendations of the testing guidelines to perform a moderate intensity general warm-up in addition to the specific warm-up before maximum strength assessments.