A Bayesian Approach for Forecasting Heat Load in a District Heating System

The growing population in cities increases the energy demand and affects the environment by increasing carbon emissions. Information and communications technology solutions which enable energy optimization are needed to address this growing energy demand in cities and to reduce carbon emissions. District heating systems optimize the energy production by reusing waste energy with combined heat and power plants. Forecasting the heat load demand in residential buildings assists in optimizing energy production and consumption in a district heating system. However, the presence of a large number of factors such as weather forecast, district heating operational parameters and user behavioural parameters, make heat load forecasting a challenging task. This thesis proposes a probabilistic machine learning model using a Naive Bayes classifier, to forecast the hourly heat load demand for three residential buildings in the city of Skellefteå, Sweden over a period of winter and spring seasons. The district heating data collected from the sensors equipped at the residential buildings in Skellefteå, is utilized to build the Bayesian network to forecast the heat load demand for horizons of 1, 2, 3, 6 and 24 hours. The proposed model is validated by using four cases to study the influence of various parameters on the heat load forecast by carrying out trace driven analysis in Weka and GeNIe. Results show that current heat load consumption and outdoor temperature forecast are the two parameters with most influence on the heat load forecast. The proposed model achieves average accuracies of 81.23 % and 76.74 % for a forecast horizon of 1 hour in the three buildings for winter and spring seasons respectively. The model also achieves an average accuracy of 77.97 % for three buildings across both seasons for the forecast horizon of 1 hour by utilizing only 10 % of the training data. The results indicate that even a simple model like Naive Bayes classifier can forecast the heat load demand by utilizing less training data.

FUTURES OF FINNISH FOOD SYSTEM BY 2050. The perspective of resilience

Modern food systems face complex global challenges such as climate change, resource scarcities, population growth, concentration and globalization. It is not possible to forecast how all these challenges will affect food systems, but futures research methods provide possibilities to enable better understanding of possible futures and that way increases futures awareness. In this thesis, the two-round online Delphi method was utilized to research experts’ opinions about the present and the future resilience of the Finnish food system up to 2050. The first round questionnaire was constructed based on the resilience indicators developed for agroecosystems. Sub-systems in the study were primary production (main focus), food industry, retail and consumption. Based on the results from the first round, the future images were constructed for primary production and food industry sub-sections. The second round asked experts’ opinion about the future images’ probability and desirability. In addition, panarchy scenarios were constructed by using the adaptive cycle and panarchy frameworks. Furthermore, a new approach to general resilience indicators was developed combining “categories” of the social ecological systems (structure, behaviors and governance) and general resilience parameters (tightness of feedbacks, modularity, diversity, the amount of change a system can withstand, capacity of learning and self- organizing behavior). The results indicate that there are strengths in the Finnish food system for building resilience. According to experts organic farms and larger farms are perceived as socially self-organized, which can promote innovations and new experimentations for adaptation to changing circumstances. In addition, organic farms are currently seen as the most ecologically self-regulated farms. There are also weaknesses in the Finnish food system restricting resilience building. It is important to reach optimal redundancy, in which efficiency and resilience are in balance. In the whole food system, retail sector will probably face the most dramatic changes in the future, especially, when panarchy scenarios and the future images are reflected. The profitability of farms is and will be a critical cornerstone of the overall resilience in primary production. All in all, the food system experts have very positive views concerning the resilience development of the Finnish food system in the future. Sometimes small and local is beautiful, sometimes large and international is more resilient. However, when probabilities and desirability of the future images were questioned, there were significant deviations. It appears that experts do not always believe desirable futures to materialize.

FUTURES OF FINNISH FOOD SYSTEM BY 2050. The perspective of resilience

Modern food systems face complex global challenges such as climate change, resource scarcities, population growth, concentration and globalization. It is not possible to forecast how all these challenges will affect food systems, but futures research methods provide possibilities to enable better understanding of possible futures and that way increases futures awareness. In this thesis, the two-round online Delphi method was utilized to research experts’ opinions about the present and the future resilience of the Finnish food system up to 2050. The first round questionnaire was constructed based on the resilience indicators developed for agroecosystems. Sub-systems in the study were primary production (main focus), food industry, retail and consumption. Based on the results from the first round, the future images were constructed for primary production and food industry sub-sections. The second round asked experts’ opinion about the future images’ probability and desirability. In addition, panarchy scenarios were constructed by using the adaptive cycle and panarchy frameworks. Furthermore, a new approach to general resilience indicators was developed combining “categories” of the social ecological systems (structure, behaviors and governance) and general resilience parameters (tightness of feedbacks, modularity, diversity, the amount of change a system can withstand, capacity of learning and self- organizing behavior). The results indicate that there are strengths in the Finnish food system for building resilience. According to experts organic farms and larger farms are perceived as socially self-organized, which can promote innovations and new experimentations for adaptation to changing circumstances. In addition, organic farms are currently seen as the most ecologically self-regulated farms. There are also weaknesses in the Finnish food system restricting resilience building. It is important to reach optimal redundancy, in which efficiency and resilience are in balance. In the whole food system, retail sector will probably face the most dramatic changes in the future, especially, when panarchy scenarios and the future images are reflected. The profitability of farms is and will be a critical cornerstone of the overall resilience in primary production. All in all, the food system experts have very positive views concerning the resilience development of the Finnish food system in the future. Sometimes small and local is beautiful, sometimes large and international is more resilient. However, when probabilities and desirability of the future images were questioned, there were significant deviations. It appears that experts do not always believe desirable futures to materialize.

Effect of trellising system on grape and wine composition of Syrah vines grown in the cerrado region of Minas Gerais

Based on the concept that the trellising system affects not only sunlight interception and carbon assimilation, but also the fruitzone microclimate, which has a great impact on fruit composition and consequently on wine quality, the effect of two trellising systems - Vertical Shoot Position (VSP) and modified Geneva Double Curtain (GDC) - on wine and berry composition of Syrah grapes grown in João Pinheiro, Northeast region of Minas Gerais State, Brazil was investigated. The parameters such as pH, berry size and weight, and seeds total phenolic contents were not affected by the training system. The GDC system produced fruits with the highest Brix and lowest titratable acidity. Berries from the VSP system presented lower anthocyanin concentration than those from the GDC system. Similar results were found for the total phenolic content of the skin of grape berries from the VSP system. GDC wines were characterized by high anthocyanin content and red color, resulting in wines with high color intensity. These data suggest that in the tropical region of Minas Gerais state, with high temperature and high sunlight intensity, the trellising system, which protects bunches against excessive radiation, should be chosen.

Optimization of Transportation System by Tailored Logistics Network: A Case Study in Automotive Industry

This thesis aims to redesign the supply chain system in an automotive industry in order to obtain space reduction in the inventory by using tailored logistics network. The redesigning process by tailored supply chain will combine all possible shipment methods including direct shipment, milk-run, milk-run via distribution center and Kanban delivery. The current supply chain system in Nissan goes rather well when the production volume is in moderate level. However, when the production volume is high, there is a capacity problem in the warehouse to accommodate all delivered parts from suppliers. Hence, the optimization of supply chain system is needed in order to obtain efficient logistics process and effective inventory consumption. The study will use primary data for both qualitative and quantitative approach as the research methods. Qualitative data will be collected by conducting interviews with people related to procurement and inventory control. Quantitative data consists of list of suppliers with their condition in several parameters which will be evaluated and analyzed by using scoring method to assign the most suitable transportation network to each suppliers for improvement of inventory reduction in a cost efficient manner.

Magnetic and high pressure studies in the YPd5B3C3 system

The macroscopic properties of the superconducting phase in the multiphase compound YPd5B3 C.3 have been investigated. The onset of superconductivity was observed at 22.6 K, zero resistance at 21.2 K, the lower critical field Hel at 5 K was determined to be Hel (5) rv 310 Gauss and the compound was found to be an extreme type-II superconductor with the upper critical field in excess of 55000 Gauss at 15 K. From the upper and lower critical field values obtained, several important parameters of the superconducting state were determined at T = 15 K. The Ginzburg-Landau paramater was determined to be ~ > 9 corresponding to a coherence length ~ rv 80A and magnetic penetration depth of 800A. In addition measurements of the superconducting transition temperature Te(P) under purely hydrostatically applied pressure have been carried out. Te(P) of YPd5B3 C.3 decreases linearly with dTe/dP rv -8.814 X 10-5 J

Simultaneous extraction of order parameters and orientational distribution fuctions from 31[superscript]P NMR spectra of magnetically partially oriented phospholipid bilayers

Order parameter profiles extracted from the NMR spectra of model membranes are a valuable source of information about their structure and molecular motions. To al1alyze powder spectra the de-Pake-ing (numerical deconvolution) ~echnique can be used, but it assumes a random (spherical) dist.ribution of orientations in the sample. Multilamellar vesicles are known to deform and orient in the strong magnetic fields of NMR magnets, producing non-spherical orientation distributions. A recently developed technique for simultaneously extracting the anisotropies of the system as well as the orientation distributions is applied to the analysis of partially magnetically oriented 31p NMR spectra of phospholipids. A mixture of synthetic lipids, POPE and POPG, is analyzed to measure distortion of multilamellar vesicles in a magnetic field. In the analysis three models describing the shape of the distorted vesicles are examined. Ellipsoids of rotation with a semiaxis ratio of about 1.14 are found to provide a good approximation of the shape of the distorted vesicles. This is in reasonable agreement with published experimental work. All three models yield clearly non-spherical orientational distributions, as well as a precise measure of the anisotropy of the chemical shift. Noise in the experimental data prevented the analysis from concluding which of the three models is the best approximation. A discretization scheme for finding stability in the algorithm is outlined

Elastic Constants And Structural Parameters Of Selected Polycrystalline Ceramics By Ultrasonic Technique

The present work is an attempt to probe the elastic properties in some dielectric ceramics, by using ultrasonic pulse echo overlap technique. The base Ba6-xSm8+2xTi18O54 and Ca5Nb2TiO12 are very important dielectrics ceramics used for microwave communication as well as for substrate materials. Ultrasonic is one of the most widely used and powerful techniques to measure elastic properties of solids. The ultrasonic technique is nondestructive in nature and the measurements are relatively straightforward to perform. One unique advantantage of the ultrasonic technique is that both static and dynamic properties can be measured simultaneously. The velocity and attenuation coefficients of the ultrasonic waves propagating through a medium are related to the microscopic structure of the material and they provide valuable information about the structural changes in the system. Among the various ultrasonic techniques, the pulse echo overlap method is the most accurate and precise one. In the present case the decreased elastic properties of Cas-XMg,Nb2TiO12 and Cas-,ZnNb2TiO12 ceramics can be attributed to their mixture phases beyond x = 1. Moreover, the abrupt change in elastic properties observed for x >1 can also be correlated to the structural transformation of the materials from their phase pure form to mixture phases for higher extent of substitution of the concerned material . Ca4(ANb2Ti)012 (A = Mg, Zn) is the strongest compound with the maximum values for elastic properties . This could be due to the possible substitution of Mg/Zn ions with lesser radius [25] than Ca2+ in perovskite B-site of Ca(Cali4Nb2i4Tili4) O3 material to contribute more ordering and symmetry to the system [20]. All other compositions (x > 1) contain mixed-phases and for such mixed-phase samples, the mechanical properties are difficult to explain.

Surface Active Substances in the Cochin Estuarine System

This study focuses on the fractionation and quantification of chlorophenols, the most important and potential pollutant in this category, the distribution and seasonal dynamics of MBAS, phenols and clorophenols and development of a model to describe the chemical reactivity of the estuary are utilizing the dynamics of boron. The CES is highly influenced by various anthropogenic activities like discharge of agricultural, industrial and urban wastes operation of shipyard, oil and other transporting activities, fishing, dredging etc. Seasonal values of MBAS showed high values in the surface water during monsoon compared to premonsoon and postmonsoon. In the Cochin estuary o-chlorophenol and p-chlorophenol showed low values in the surface water compared to bottom water in the northern part of the estuary and higher values in the surface water in the southern part

Non-invasive Studies on Age Related Parameters Using a Blood Volume Pulse Sensor

A non-invasive technique is implemented to measure a parameter which is closely related to the distensibility of large arteries, using the second derivative of the infrared photoplethysmographic waveform. Thirty subjects within the age group of 20-61 years were involved in this pilot study. Two new parameters, namely the area of the photoplethysmographic waveform under the systolic peak, and the ratio of the time delay between the systolic and the diastolic peaks and the time period of the waveform ( T/T) were studied as a function of age. It was found that while the parameter which is supposed to be a marker of distensibility of large arteries and T /T values correlate negatively with age, the area under the systolic peak correlates positively with age. The results suggest that the derived parameters could provide a simple, non-invasive means for studying the changes in the elastic properties of the vascular system as a function of age.

High power N2 laser with a modified gas flow system and discharge geometry

A high power Nz laser of the double-Blumlein type having a modified gas flow system, electrode configuration, and discharge geometry with minimum inductance is described. By incorporating a triggere’d-pressurized spark gap switch, arc-free operation was achieved for a wide E/P range. The device gives a peak power in excess of 700 kW with a FWHM of 3 ns and an efficiency of 0.51%, which is remarkably high for a pulsed nitrogen laser system. The dependence of output power on parameters such as operating pressure, voltage, and repetition rate are discussed.

Effect of Improving Energy Efficiency on System Reliability

In the present scenario of energy demand overtaking energy supply top priority is given for energy conservation programs and policies. Most of the process plants are operated on continuous basis and consumes large quantities of energy. Efficient management of process system can lead to energy savings, improved process efficiency, lesser operating and maintenance cost, and greater environmental safety. Reliability and maintainability of the system are usually considered at the design stage and is dependent on the system configuration. However, with the growing need for energy conservation, most of the existing process systems are either modified or are in a state of modification with a view for improving energy efficiency. Often these modifications result in a change in system configuration there by affecting the system reliability. It is important that system modifications for improving energy efficiency should not be at the cost of reliability. Any new proposal for improving the energy efficiency of the process or equipments should prove itself to be economically feasible for gaining acceptance for implementation. In order to arrive at the economic feasibility of the new proposal, the general trend is to compare the benefits that can be derived over the lifetime as well as the operating and maintenance costs with the investment to be made. Quite often it happens that the reliability aspects (or loss due to unavailability) are not taken into consideration. Plant availability is a critical factor for the economic performance evaluation of any process plant.The focus of the present work is to study the effect of system modification for improving energy efficiency on system reliability. A generalized model for the valuation of process system incorporating reliability is developed, which is used as a tool for the analysis. It can provide an awareness of the potential performance improvements of the process system and can be used to arrive at the change in process system value resulting from system modification. The model also arrives at the pay back of the modified system by taking reliability aspects also into consideration. It is also used to study the effect of various operating parameters on system value. The concept of breakeven availability is introduced and an algorithm for allocation of component reliabilities of the modified process system based on the breakeven system availability is also developed. The model was applied to various industrial situations.

Geochemistry of transition, non-transition and rare-earth elements in the surficial sediments of continental shelf of Kerala and an annex to the Cochin estuarine system

The metals present in the surface sediments have high demand on a global perspective, and the main reservoir of these elements is believed to be the ocean floor. A lot of studies on metals are going on throughout the world for its quantification and exploitation. Even though, some preliminary attempts have been made in selected areas for the quantitative study of metals in the western continental shelf of India, no comprehensive work has been reported so far. The importance of this study also lies on the fact that there has not been a proper evaluation of the impact of the Great Tsunami of 2004 on the coastal areas of the south India. In View of this, an attempt has been made to address the seasonal distribution, behavior and mechanisms which control the deposition of metals in the sediments of the western continental shelf and Cochin Estuary, an annex to this coastal marine region.Surface sediment samples were collected seasonally from two subenvironemnts of southwest coast of India, (continental shelf of Kerala and Cochin estuarine system), to estimate the seasonal distribution and geochemical behavior of non-transition, transition, rare-earth elements, Th and U. Bottom water samples were also taken from each station, and analysed for temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen, hence the response of redox sensitive elements to oxygen minimum zone can be addressed. In addition, other sedimentary parameters such as sand, silt, clay fractions, CaCO3 and organic carbon content were also estimated to evaluate the control factors on level of metals present in the sediment. The study used different environmental data analysis techniques to evaluate the distribution and behavior of elements during different seasons. This includes environmental parameters such as elemental normalisation, enrichment factor, element excess, cerium and europium anomalies and authigenic uranium.

Analysis of System Signals Based on Cross Recurrence Method for System Dynamics Characterization

Natural systems are inherently non linear. Recurrent behaviours are typical of natural systems. Recurrence is a fundamental property of non linear dynamical systems which can be exploited to characterize the system behaviour effectively. Cross recurrence based analysis of sensor signals from non linear dynamical system is presented in this thesis. The mutual dependency among relatively independent components of a system is referred as coupling. The analysis is done for a mechanically coupled system specifically designed for conducting experiment. Further, cross recurrence method is extended to the actual machining process in a lathe to characterize the chatter during turning. The result is verified by permutation entropy method. Conventional linear methods or models are incapable of capturing the critical and strange behaviours associated with the dynamical process. Hence any effective feature extraction methodologies should invariably gather information thorough nonlinear time series analysis. The sensor signals from the dynamical system normally contain noise and non stationarity. In an effort to get over these two issues to the maximum possible extent, this work adopts the cross recurrence quantification analysis (CRQA) methodology since it is found to be robust against noise and stationarity in the signals. The study reveals that the CRQA is capable of characterizing even weak coupling among system signals. It also divulges the dependence of certain CRQA variables like percent determinism, percent recurrence and entropy to chatter unambiguously. The surrogate data test shows that the results obtained by CRQA are the true properties of the temporal evolution of the dynamics and contain a degree of deterministic structure. The results are verified using permutation entropy (PE) to detect the onset of chatter from the time series. The present study ascertains that this CRP based methodology is capable of recognizing the transition from regular cutting to the chatter cutting irrespective of the machining parameters or work piece material. The results establish this methodology to be feasible for detection of chatter in metal cutting operation in a lathe.

Triterpenoids as Biomarkers of Mangrove Organic Matter in Cochin Estuarine System

This thesis entitled triterpenoids as biomarkers of mangrove organic matter in cochin estuarine system.Mangrove forests, known as rainforests of the sea are one of the most important coastal ecosystems in the world in terms of primary production and coastal protection.Estuaries, the important areas of world’s coastal zones link the carbon cycle of the oceans to the continents.Three mangrove ecosystems and three estuarine stations around Cochin region, southwest coast of India were selected for the present study. The thesis is divided into five chapters. Chapter 1 is the Introduction and it deals with the aim and scope of the present study. Chapter 2 is Materials and Methods. This chapter deals with the nature and general geographical features of the study area. It also contains the details of the sampling and analytical methodology.the present study. Chapter 3 is Geochemistry and it includes the seasonal and spatial variations of the geochemical parameters in the surface sediments.Chapter 4 is Biochemical Composition. It covers the biochemical composition of organic matter in the surface sediments to examine the quality and quantity of organic matter.Chapter 5, Triterpenoid Biomarkers in Sediments, characterize the organic matter in the sediments of the mangrove and estuarine ecosystems under study, to assess the possible sources with the help of triterpenoid biomarkers along with other lipid biomarkers.