923 resultados para Solar radiation sensors
Resumo:
The accelerated rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration in recent years has revived the idea of stabilizing the global climate through geoengineering schemes. Majority of the proposed geoengineering schemes will attempt to reduce the amount of solar radiation absorbed by our planet. Climate modelling studies of these so called 'sunshade geoengineering schemes' show that global warming from increasing concentrations of CO2 can be mitigated by intentionally manipulating the amount of sunlight absorbed by the climate system. These studies also suggest that the residual changes could be large on regional scales, so that climate change may not be mitigated on a local basis. More recent modelling studies have shown that these schemes could lead to a slow-down in the global hydrological cycle. Other problems such as changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle and ocean acidification remain unsolved by sunshade geoengineering schemes. In this article, I review the proposed geoengineering schemes, results from climate models and discuss why geoengineering is not the best option to deal with climate change.
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Aerosols from biomass burning can alter the radiative balance of the Earth by reflecting and absorbing solar radiation(1). Whether aerosols exert a net cooling or a net warming effect will depend on the aerosol type and the albedo of the underlying surface(2). Here, we use a satellite-based approach to quantify the direct, top-of-atmosphere radiative effect of aerosol layers advected over the partly cloudy boundary layer of the southeastern Atlantic Ocean during July-October of 2006 and 2007. We show that the warming effect of aerosols increases with underlying cloud coverage. This relationship is nearly linear, making it possible to define a critical cloud fraction at which the aerosols switch from exerting a net cooling to a net warming effect. For this region and time period, the critical cloud fraction is about 0.4, and is strongly sensitive to the amount of solar radiation the aerosols absorb and the albedo of the underlying clouds. We estimate that the regional-mean warming effect of aerosols is three times higher when large-scale spatial covariation between cloud cover and aerosols is taken into account. These results demonstrate the importance of cloud prediction for the accurate quantification of aerosol direct effects.
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To facilitate marketing and export, the Australian macadamia industry requires accurate crop forecasts. Each year, two levels of crop predictions are produced for this industry. The first is an overall longer-term forecast based on tree census data of growers in the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS). This data set currently accounts for around 70% of total production, and is supplemented by our best estimates of non-AMS orchards. Given these total tree numbers, average yields per tree are needed to complete the long-term forecasts. Yields from regional variety trials were initially used, but were found to be consistently higher than the average yields that growers were obtaining. Hence, a statistical model was developed using growers' historical yields, also taken from the AMS database. This model accounted for the effects of tree age, variety, year, region and tree spacing, and explained 65% of the total variation in the yield per tree data. The second level of crop prediction is an annual climate adjustment of these overall long-term estimates, taking into account the expected effects on production of the previous year's climate. This adjustment is based on relative historical yields, measured as the percentage deviance between expected and actual production. The dominant climatic variables are observed temperature, evaporation, solar radiation and modelled water stress. Initially, a number of alternate statistical models showed good agreement within the historical data, with jack-knife cross-validation R2 values of 96% or better. However, forecasts varied quite widely between these alternate models. Exploratory multivariate analyses and nearest-neighbour methods were used to investigate these differences. For 2001-2003, the overall forecasts were in the right direction (when compared with the long-term expected values), but were over-estimates. In 2004 the forecast was well under the observed production, and in 2005 the revised models produced a forecast within 5.1% of the actual production. Over the first five years of forecasting, the absolute deviance for the climate-adjustment models averaged 10.1%, just outside the targeted objective of 10%.
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Measurement or accurate simulation of soil temperature is important for improved understanding and management of peanuts (Arachis hypogaea L.), due to their geocarpic habit. A module of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator Model (APSIM), APSIM-soiltemp, which uses input of ambient temperature, rainfall and solar radiation in conjunction with other APSIM modules, was evaluated for its ability to simulate surface 5 cm soil temperature in 35 peanut on-farm trials conducted between 2001 and 2005 in the Burnett region (25°36'S to 26°41'S, 151°39'E to 151°53'E). Soil temperature simulated by the APSIM-soiltemp module, from 30 days after sowing until maturity, closely matched the measured values (R2 ≥ 0.80)in the first three seasons (2001-04). However, a slightly poorer relationship (R2 = 0.55) between the observed and the simulated temperatures was observed in 2004-05, when the crop was severely water stressed. Nevertheless, over all the four seasons, which were characterised by a range of ambient temperature, leaf area index, radiation and soil water, each of which was found to have significant effects on soil temperature, a close 1:1 relationship (R2 = 0.85) between measured and simulated soil temperatures was observed. Therefore, the pod zone soil temperature simulated by the module can be generally relied on in place of measured input of soil temperature in APSIM applications, such as quantifying climatic risk of aflatoxin accumulation.
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Road traffic emissions are often considered the main source of ultrafine particles (UFP, diameter smaller than 100 nm) in urban environments. However, recent studies worldwide have shown that - in high-insolation urban regions at least - new particle formation events can also contribute to UFP. In order to quantify such events we systematically studied three cities located in predominantly sunny environments: Barcelona (Spain), Madrid (Spain) and Brisbane (Australia). Three long term datasets (1-2 years) of fine and ultrafine particle number size distributions (measured by SMPS, Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer) were analysed. Compared to total particle number concentrations, aerosol size distributions offer far more information on the type, origin and atmospheric evolution of the particles. By applying k-Means clustering analysis, we categorized the collected aerosol size distributions in three main categories: “Traffic” (prevailing 44-63% of the time), “Nucleation” (14-19%) and “Background pollution and Specific cases” (7-22%). Measurements from Rome (Italy) and Los Angeles (California) were also included to complement the study. The daily variation of the average UFP concentrations for a typical nucleation day at each site revealed a similar pattern for all cities, with three distinct particle bursts. A morning and an evening spike reflected traffic rush hours, whereas a third one at midday showed nucleation events. The photochemically nucleated particles burst lasted 1-4 hours, reaching sizes of 30-40 nm. On average, the occurrence of particle size spectra dominated by nucleation events was 16% of the time, showing the importance of this process as a source of UFP in urban environments exposed to high solar radiation. On average, nucleation events lasting for 2 hours or more occurred on 55% of the days, this extending to >4hrs in 28% of the days, demonstrating that atmospheric conditions in urban environments are not favourable to the growth of photochemically nucleated particles. In summary, although traffic remains the main source of UFP in urban areas, in developed countries with high insolation urban nucleation events are also a main source of UFP. If traffic-related particle concentrations are reduced in the future, nucleation events will likely increase in urban areas, due to the reduced urban condensation sinks.
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This paper is the first of a series that investigates whether new cropping systems with permanent raised beds (PRBs) or Flat land could be successfully used to increase farmers' incomes from rainfed crops in Lombok in Eastern Indonesia. This paper discusses the rice phase of the cropping system. Low grain yields of dry-seeded rice (Oryza sativa) grown on Flat land on Vertisols in the rainfed region of southern Lombok, Eastern Indonesia, are probably mainly due to (a) erratic rainfall (870-1220 mm/yr), with water often limiting at sensitive growth stages, (b) consistently high temperatures (average maximum - 31 C), and (c) low solar radiation. Farmers are therefore poor, and labour is hard and costly, as all operations are manual. Two replicated field experiments were run at Wakan (annual rainfall = 868 mm) and Kawo (1215 mm) for 3 years (2001/2002 to 2003/2004) on Vertisols in southern Lombok. Dry-seeded rice was grown in 4 treatments with or without manual tillage on (a) PRBs, 1.2 m wide, 200 mm high, separated by furrows 300 mm wide, 200 mill deep, with no rice sown in the well-graded furrows, and (b) well-graded Flat land. Excess surface water was harvested from each treatment and used for irrigation after the vegetative stage of the rice. All operations were manual. There were no differences between treatments in grain yield of rice (mean grain yield = 681 g/m(2)) which could be partly explained by total number of tillers/hill and mean panicle length, but not number of productive tillers/hill, plant height or weight of 1000 grains. When the data from both treatments on PRBs and from both treatments on Flat land, each year at each site were analysed, there were also no differences in grain yield of rice (g/m(2)). When rainfall in the wet season up to harvest was over 1000 mm (Year 2; Wakan, Kawo), or plants were water-stressed during crop establishment (Year 1; Wakan) or during grain-fill (Year 3: Kawo), there were significant differences in grain yield (g/1.5 m(2)) between treatments; generally the grain yield (g/1.5 m(2)) on PRBs with or without tillage was less than that on Flat land with or without tillage. However, when the data from both treatments on PRBs and from both treatments on Flat land, each year at each site, were analysed, the greater grain yield of dry-seeded rice on Flat land (mean yield 1 092 g/1.5 m(2)) than that on PRBs (mean 815 g/1.5 m(2)) was mainly because there were 25% more plants on Flat land. Overall when the data in the 2 outer rows and the 2 inner rows on PRBs were each combined, there was a higher number of productive tillers in the combined outer rows (mean 20.7 tillers/hill) compared with that in the combined inner rows on each PRB (mean 18.2 tillers/hill). However, there were no differences in grain yield between combined rows (mean 142 g/m row). Hence with a gap of 500 mm (the distance between the outer rows of plants on adjacent raised beds), plants did not compensate in grain yield for missing plants in furrows. This suggests that rice (a) also sown in furrows, or (b) sown in 7 rows with narrower row-spacing, or (c) sown in 6 rows with slightly wider row-spacing, and narrower gap between outer rows on adjacent beds, may further increase grain yield (g/1.5 m(2)) in this system of PRBs. The growth and the grain yield (y in g/m(2)) of rainfed rice (with rainfall on-site the only source of water for irrigation) depended mainly on the rainfall (x in mm) in the wet season up to harvest (due either to site or year) with y = 1. 1x -308; r(2) = 0.54; p < 0.005. However, 280 mm (i.e. 32%) of the rainfall was not directly used to produce grain (i.e. when y = 0 g/m(2)). Manual tillage did not affect growth and grain yield of rice (g/m(2); g/1.5 m(2)), either on PRB or on Flat land.
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Several orientation and tracking systems employed in parabolic-cylindrical concentrators for focusing the direct solar radiation on the absorber tubes are analyzed from the technical and economic points of view. Case one, where the incidence factor was a function of declination and hour angle, showed that the maximum variations of incident factor from morning to noon was 0.5 at zero angle of declination. Case two, where the incidence factor was a function of declination, hour angle and latitude, showed the maximum variation of the incidence factor to be 0.128, which occurred during noon at the latitude of 30 degrees, corresponding to a change of declination from 0 to 23.5 degrees. In case three, the incidence factor, a function of declination only, showed that the maximum variation of the incidence factor corresponding to the change in declination from 0 to 23.5 degree was 0.0758. It is concluded that system three is the most efficient from the technical and economic point of view.
Resumo:
Maize is one of the most important crops in the world. The products generated from this crop are largely used in the starch industry, the animal and human nutrition sector, and biomass energy production and refineries. For these reasons, there is much interest in figuring the potential grain yield of maize genotypes in relation to the environment in which they will be grown, as the productivity directly affects agribusiness or farm profitability. Questions like these can be investigated with ecophysiological crop models, which can be organized according to different philosophies and structures. The main objective of this work is to conceptualize a stochastic model for predicting maize grain yield and productivity under different conditions of water supply while considering the uncertainties of daily climate data. Therefore, one focus is to explain the model construction in detail, and the other is to present some results in light of the philosophy adopted. A deterministic model was built as the basis for the stochastic model. The former performed well in terms of the curve shape of the above-ground dry matter over time as well as the grain yield under full and moderate water deficit conditions. Through the use of a triangular distribution for the harvest index and a bivariate normal distribution of the averaged daily solar radiation and air temperature, the stochastic model satisfactorily simulated grain productivity, i.e., it was found that 10,604 kg ha(-1) is the most likely grain productivity, very similar to the productivity simulated by the deterministic model and for the real conditions based on a field experiment. © 2012 American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers.
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It has been known for decades that particles can cause adverse health effects as they are deposited within the respiratory system. Atmospheric aerosol particles influence climate by scattering solar radiation but aerosol particles act also as the nuclei around which cloud droplets form. The principal objectives of this thesis were to investigate the chemical composition and the sources of fine particles in different environments (traffic, urban background, remote) as well as during some specific air pollution situations. Quantifying the climate and health effects of atmospheric aerosols is not possible without detailed information of the aerosol chemical composition. Aerosol measurements were carried out at nine sites in six countries (Finland, Germany, Czech, Netherlands, Greece and Italy). Several different instruments were used in order to measure both the particulate matter (PM) mass and its chemical composition. In the off-line measurements the samples were collected first on a substrate or filter and gravimetric and chemical analysis were conducted in the laboratory. In the on-line measurements the sampling and analysis were either a combined procedure or performed successively within the same instrument. Results from the impactor samples were analyzed by the statistical methods. This thesis comprises also a work where a method for the determination carbonaceous matter size distribution by using a multistage impactor was developed. It was found that the chemistry of PM has usually strong spatial, temporal and size-dependent variability. In the Finnish sites most of the fine PM consisted of organic matter. However, in Greece sulfate dominated the fine PM and in Italy nitrate made the largest contribution to the fine PM. Regarding the size-dependent chemical composition, organic components were likely to be enriched in smaller particles than inorganic ions. Data analysis showed that organic carbon (OC) had four major sources in Helsinki. Secondary production was the major source in Helsinki during spring, summer and fall, whereas in winter biomass combustion dominated OC. The significant impact of biomass combustion on OC concentrations was also observed in the measurements performed in Central Europe. In this thesis aerosol samples were collected mainly by the conventional filter and impactor methods which suffered from the long integration time. However, by filter and impactor measurements chemical mass closure was achieved accurately, and a simple filter sampling was found to be useful in order to explain the sources of PM on the seasonal basis. The online instruments gave additional information related to the temporal variations of the sources and the atmospheric mixing conditions.
Resumo:
The effects of plant growth conditions on concentrations of proteins, including allergens, in peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) kernels are largely unknown. Peanuts (cv. Walter) were grown at five sites (Taabinga, Redvale, Childers, Bundaberg, and Kairi) covering three commercial growing regions in Queensland, Australia. Differences in temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation during the growing season were evaluated. Kernel yield varied from 2.3 t/ha (Kairi) to 3.9 t/ha (Childers), probably due to differences in solar radiation. Crude protein appeared to vary only between Kairi and Childers, whereas Ara h 1 and 2 concentrations were similar in all locations. 2D-DIGE revealed significant differences in spot volumes for only two minor protein spots from peanuts grown in the five locations. Western blotting using peanut-allergic serum revealed no qualitative differences in recognition of antigens. It was concluded that peanuts grown in different growing regions in Queensland, Australia, had similar protein compositions and therefore were unlikely to show differences in allergenicity.
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Although changes in urban forest vegetation have been documented in previous Finnish studies, the reasons for these changes have not been studied explicitly. Especially, the consequences of forest fragmentation, i.e. the fact that forest edges receive more solar radiation, wind and air-borne nutrients than interiors have been ignored. In order to limit the change in urban forest vegetation we need to know why it occurs. Therefore, the effects of edges and recreational use of urban forests on vegetation were investigated together in this thesis to reveal the relative strengths of these effects and to provide recommendations for forest management. Data were collected in the greater Helsinki area (in the cities of Helsinki, Vantaa and Espoo, and in the municipalities of Sipoo and Tuusula) and in the Lahti region (in the city of Lahti and in the municipality of Hollola) by means of systematic and randomized vegetation and soil sampling and tree measurements. Sample plots were placed from the forest edges to the interiors to investigate the effects of forest edges, and on paths of different levels of wear and off these paths to investigate the effects of trampling. The natural vegetation of mesic and sub-xeric forest site types studied was sensitive both to the effects of the edge and to trampling. The abundances of dwarf shrubs and bryophytes decreased, while light- and nitrogen-demanding herbs and grasses - and especially Sorbus aucuparia – were favoured at the edges and next to the paths. Results indicated that typical forest site types at the edges are changing toward more nitrophilic vegetation communities. Covers of the most abundant forest species decreased considerably – even tens of percentages – from interiors to the edges indicating strong edge effects. These effects penetrated at least up to 50 m from the forest edges into the interiors, especially at south to west facing open edges. The effects of trampling were pronounced on paths and even low levels of trampling decreased the abundances of certain species considerably. The effects of trampling extended up to 8 m from path edges. Results showed that the fragmentation of urban forest remnants into small and narrow patches should be avoided in order to maintain natural forest understorey vegetation in the urban setting. Thus, urban forest fragments left within urban development should be at least 3 ha in size, and as circular as possible. Where the preservation of representative original forest interior vegetation is a management aim, closed edges with conifers can act as an effective barrier against solar radiation, wind and urban load, thereby restricting the effects of the edge. Tree volume at the edge should be at least 225-250 m3 ha-1 and the proportion of conifers (especially spruce) 80% or more of the tree species composition. Closed, spruce-dominated edges may also prevent the excessive growth of S. aucuparia saplings at urban forest edges. In addition, closed edges may guide people’s movements to the maintained paths, thus preventing the spontaneous creation of dense path networks. In urban areas the effects of edges and trampling on biodiversity may be considerable, and are important to consider when the aim of management is to prevent the development of homogeneous herb-grass dominated vegetation communities, as was observed at the investigated edges.
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The present study deals with the application of cluster analysis, Fuzzy Cluster Analysis (FCA) and Kohonen Artificial Neural Networks (KANN) methods for classification of 159 meteorological stations in India into meteorologically homogeneous groups. Eight parameters, namely latitude, longitude, elevation, average temperature, humidity, wind speed, sunshine hours and solar radiation, are considered as the classification criteria for grouping. The optimal number of groups is determined as 14 based on the Davies-Bouldin index approach. It is observed that the FCA approach performed better than the other two methodologies for the present study.
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There is a growing need to understand the exchange processes of momentum, heat and mass between an urban surface and the atmosphere as they affect our quality of life. Understanding the source/sink strengths as well as the mixing mechanisms of air pollutants is particularly important due to their effects on human health and climate. This work aims to improve our understanding of these surface-atmosphere interactions based on the analysis of measurements carried out in Helsinki, Finland. The vertical exchange of momentum, heat, carbon dioxide (CO2) and aerosol particle number was measured with the eddy covariance technique at the urban measurement station SMEAR III, where the concentrations of ultrafine, accumulation mode and coarse particle numbers, nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3) and sulphur dioxide (SO2) were also measured. These measurements were carried out over varying measurement periods between 2004 and 2008. In addition, black carbon mass concentration was measured at the Helsinki Metropolitan Area Council site during three campaigns in 1996-2005. Thus, the analyzed dataset covered far, the most comprehensive long-term measurements of turbulent fluxes reported in the literature from urban areas. Moreover, simultaneously measured urban air pollution concentrations and turbulent fluxes were examined for the first time. The complex measurement surrounding enabled us to study the effect of different urban covers on the exchange processes from a single point of measurement. The sensible and latent heat fluxes closely followed the intensity of solar radiation, and the sensible heat flux always exceeded the latent heat flux due to anthropogenic heat emissions and the conversion of solar radiation to direct heat in urban structures. This urban heat island effect was most evident during winter nights. The effect of land use cover was seen as increased sensible heat fluxes in more built-up areas than in areas with high vegetation cover. Both aerosol particle and CO2 exchanges were largely affected by road traffic, and the highest diurnal fluxes reached 109 m-2 s-1 and 20 µmol m-2 s-1, respectively, in the direction of the road. Local road traffic had the greatest effect on ultrafine particle concentrations, whereas meteorological variables were more important for accumulation mode and coarse particle concentrations. The measurement surroundings of the SMEAR III station served as a source for both particles and CO2, except in summer, when the vegetation uptake of CO2 exceeded the anthropogenic sources in the vegetation sector in daytime, and we observed a downward median flux of 8 µmol m-2 s-1. This work improved our understanding of the interactions between an urban surface and the atmosphere in a city located at high latitudes in a semi-continental climate. The results can be utilised in urban planning, as the fraction of vegetation cover and vehicular activity were found to be the major environmental drivers affecting most of the exchange processes. However, in order to understand these exchange and mixing processes on a city scale, more measurements above various urban surfaces accompanied by numerical modelling are required.
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It is widely accepted that the global climate is heating up due to human activities, such as burning of fossil fuels. Therefore we find ourselves forced to make decisions on what measures, if any, need to be taken to decrease our warming effect on the planet before any irrevocable damage occurs. Research is being conducted in a variety of fields to better understand all relevant processes governing Earth s climate, and to assess the relative roles of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions into the atmosphere. One of the least well quantified problems is the impact of small aerosol particles (both of anthropogenic and biogenic origin) on climate, through reflecting solar radiation and their ability to act as condensation nuclei for cloud droplets. In this thesis, the compounds driving the biogenic formation of new particles in the atmosphere have been examined through detailed measurements. As directly measuring the composition of these newly formed particles is extremely difficult, the approach was to indirectly study their different characteristics by measuring the hygroscopicity (water uptake) and volatility (evaporation) of particles between 10 and 50 nm. To study the first steps of the formation process in the sub-3 nm range, the nucleation of gaseous precursors to small clusters, the chemical composition of ambient naturally charged ions were measured. The ion measurements were performed with a newly developed mass spectrometer, which was first characterized in the laboratory before being deployed at a boreal forest measurement site. It was also successfully compared to similar, low-resolution instruments. The ambient measurements showed that sulfuric acid clusters dominate the negative ion spectrum during new particle formation events. Sulfuric acid/ammonia clusters were detected in ambient air for the first time in this work. Even though sulfuric acid is believed to be the most important gas phase precursor driving the initial cluster formation, measurements of the hygroscopicity and volatility of growing 10-50 nm particles in Hyytiälä showed an increasing role of organic vapors of a variety of oxidation levels. This work has provided additional insights into the compounds participating both in the initial formation and subsequent growth of atmospheric new aerosol particles. It will hopefully prove an important step in understanding atmospheric gas-to-particle conversion, which, by influencing cloud properties, can have important climate impacts. All available knowledge needs to be constantly updated, summarized, and brought to the attention of our decision-makers. Only by increasing our understanding of all the relevant processes can we build reliable models to predict the long-term effects of decisions made today.
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The Antarctic system comprises of the continent itself, Antarctica, and the ocean surrounding it, the Southern Ocean. The system has an important part in the global climate due to its size, its high latitude location and the negative radiation balance of its large ice sheets. Antarctica has also been in focus for several decades due to increased ultraviolet (UV) levels caused by stratospheric ozone depletion, and the disintegration of its ice shelves. In this study, measurements were made during three Austral summers to study the optical properties of the Antarctic system and to produce radiation information for additional modeling studies. These are related to specific phenomena found in the system. During the summer of 1997-1998, measurements of beam absorption and beam attenuation coefficients, and downwelling and upwelling irradiance were made in the Southern Ocean along a S-N transect at 6°E. The attenuation of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) was calculated and used together with hydrographic measurements to judge whether the phytoplankton in the investigated areas of the Southern Ocean are light limited. By using the Kirk formula the diffuse attenuation coefficient was linked to the absorption and scattering coefficients. The diffuse attenuation coefficients (Kpar) for PAR were found to vary between 0.03 and 0.09 1/m. Using the values for KPAR and the definition of the Sverdrup critical depth, the studied Southern Ocean plankton systems were found not to be light limited. Variabilities in the spectral and total albedo of snow were studied in the Queen Maud Land region of Antarctica during the summers of 1999-2000 and 2000-2001. The measurement areas were the vicinity of the South African Antarctic research station SANAE 4, and a traverse near the Finnish Antarctic research station Aboa. The midday mean total albedos for snow were between 0.83, for clear skies, and 0.86, for overcast skies, at Aboa and between 0.81 and 0.83 for SANAE 4. The mean spectral albedo levels at Aboa and SANAE 4 were very close to each other. The variations in the spectral albedos were due more to differences in ambient conditions than variations in snow properties. A Monte-Carlo model was developed to study the spectral albedo and to develop a novel nondestructive method to measure the diffuse attenuation coefficient of snow. The method was based on the decay of upwelling radiation moving horizontally away from a source of downwelling light. This was assumed to have a relation to the diffuse attenuation coefficient. In the model, the attenuation coefficient obtained from the upwelling irradiance was higher than that obtained using vertical profiles of downwelling irradiance. The model results were compared to field measurements made on dry snow in Finnish Lapland and they correlated reasonably well. Low-elevation (below 1000 m) blue-ice areas may experience substantial melt-freeze cycles due to absorbed solar radiation and the small heat conductivity in the ice. A two-dimensional (x-z) model has been developed to simulate the formation and water circulation in the subsurface ponds. The model results show that for a physically reasonable parameter set the formation of liquid water within the ice can be reproduced. The results however are sensitive to the chosen parameter values, and their exact values are not well known. Vertical convection and a weak overturning circulation is generated stratifying the fluid and transporting warmer water downward, thereby causing additional melting at the base of the pond. In a 50-year integration, a global warming scenario mimicked by a decadal scale increase of 3 degrees per 100 years in air temperature, leads to a general increase in subsurface water volume. The ice did not disintegrate due to the air temperature increase after the 50 year integration.