Building fuzzy inference systems with similarity reasoning : NSGAII-based fuzzy rule selection and evidential functions

In our previous investigations, two Similarity Reasoning (SR)-based frameworks for tackling real-world problems have been proposed. In both frameworks, SR is used to deduce unknown fuzzy rules based on similarity of the given and unknown fuzzy rules for building a Fuzzy Inference System (FIS). In this paper, we further extend our previous findings by developing (1) a multi-objective evolutionary model for fuzzy rule selection; and (2) an evidential function to facilitate the use of both frameworks. The Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithms-p (NSGA-p) is adopted for fuzzy rule selection, in accordance with the Pareto optimal criterion. Besides that, two new evidential functions are developed, whereby given fuzzy rules are considered as evidence. Simulated and benchmark examples are included to demonstrate the applicability of these suggestions. Positive results were obtained.

The exception to the rule : Retreating ice front makes Bewick's swans Cygnus columbianus bewickii migrate slower in spring than in autumn

In the vast majority of migratory bird species studied so far, spring migration has been found to proceed faster than autumn migration. In spring, selection pressures for rapid migration are purportedly higher, and migratory conditions such as food supply, daylength, and/or wind support may be better than in autumn. In swans, however, spring migration appears to be slower than autumn migration. Based on a comparison of tundra swan Cygnus columbianus tracking data with long-term temperature data from wheather stations, it has previously been suggested that this was due to a capital breeding strategy (gathering resources for breeding during spring migration) and/or to ice cover constraining spring but not autumn migration. Here we directly test the hypothesis that Bewick's swans Cygnus columbianus bewickii follow the ice front in spring, but not in autumn, by comparing three years of GPS tracking data from individual swans with concurrent ice cover data at five important migratory stop-over sites. In general, ice constrained the swans in the middle part of spring migration, but not in the first (no ice cover was present in the first part) nor in the last part. In autumn, the swans migrated far ahead of ice formation, possibly in order to prevent being trapped by an early onset of winter. We conclude that spring migration in swans is slower than autumn migration because spring migration speed is constrained by ice cover. This restriction to spring migration speed may be more common in northerly migrating birds that rely on freshwater resources. © 2013 The Authors.

The emergency powers in Bangladesh: means for subversion of the rule of law?

The Constitution of Bangladesh empowers the President to proclaim an emergency on the actual or imminent ground of war or external aggression or internal disturbance. However, the insertion of ‘internal disturbance’ in the Constitution as a ground for invoking emergency has provided the executive with the opportunity to proclaim all the five emergencies in Bangladesh on this vague ground for purposes other than that of securing the life of the nation. Furthermore, in the absence of any effective constitutional mechanisms for scrutinising the exercise of emergency powers and a time limit on the continuation of a state of emergency, some of the proclamations of emergency continued even after the alleged threat posed to the life of the nation was over to perpetuate the survival of the party in power by repressing any political threat to the regime. This Article, therefore, recommends for insertion in the Constitution of Bangladesh detailed norms providing for legal limits on the wide power of the executive concerning the proclamation, administration and termination of emergency with a view to ensure that emergencies can no longer be resorted to as the effective means of discarding the rule of law.

Joint optimization of rule placement and traffic engineering for QoS provisioning in software defined network

Software-Defined Network (SDN) is a promising network paradigm that separates the control plane and data plane in the network. It has shown great advantages in simplifying network management such that new functions can be easily supported without physical access to the network switches. However, Ternary Content Addressable Memory (TCAM), as a critical hardware storing rules for high-speed packet processing in SDN-enabled devices, can be supplied to each device with very limited quantity because it is expensive and energy-consuming. To efficiently use TCAM resources, we propose a rule multiplexing scheme, in which the same set of rules deployed on each node apply to the whole flow of a session going through but towards different paths. Based on this scheme, we study the rule placement problem with the objective of minimizing rule space occupation for multiple unicast sessions under QoS constraints. We formulate the optimization problem jointly considering routing engineering and rule placement under both existing and our rule multiplexing schemes. Via an extensive review of the state-of-the-art work, to the best of our knowledge, we are the first to study the non-routing-rule placement problem. Finally, extensive simulations are conducted to show that our proposals significantly outperform existing solutions.

Personality differences and hotel web design study using targeted positive and negative association rule mining

As people have unique tastes, the way to satisfy a small group of targeted customers or to be generic to meet most people's preference has been a traditional question to many fashion designers and website developers. This study examined the relationship between individuals' personality differences and their web design preferences. Each individual's personality is represented by a combination of five traits, and 15 website design-related features are considered to test the users' preference. We introduced a data mining technique called targeted positive and negative association rule mining to analyze a dataset containing the survey results collected from undergraduate students. The results of this study not only suggest the importance of providing specific designs to attract individual customers, but also provide valuable input on the Big Five personality traits in their entirety.

Optimized fuzzy association rule mining for quantitative data

With the advance of computing and electronic technology, quantitative data, for example, continuous data (i.e., sequences of floating point numbers), become vital and have wide applications, such as for analysis of sensor data streams and financial data streams. However, existing association rule mining generally discover association rules from discrete variables, such as boolean data (`O' and `l') and categorical data (`sunny', `cloudy', `rainy', etc.) but very few deal with quantitative data. In this paper, a novel optimized fuzzy association rule mining (OFARM) method is proposed to mine association rules from quantitative data. The advantages of the proposed algorithm are in three folds: 1) propose a novel method to add the smoothness and flexibility of membership function for fuzzy sets; 2) optimize the fuzzy sets and their partition points with multiple objective functions after categorizing the quantitative data; and 3) design a two-level iteration to filter frequent-item-sets and fuzzy association-rules. The new method is verified by three different data sets, and the results have demonstrated the effectiveness and potentials of the developed scheme.

The ex-Ante non-optimality of the Dempster-Schafer updating rule for ambiguous beliefs

The most widely used updating rule for non-additive probalities is the Dempster-Schafer rule. Schmeidles and Gilboa have developed a model of decision making under uncertainty based on non-additive probabilities, and in their paper “Updating Ambiguos Beliefs” they justify the Dempster-Schafer rule based on a maximum likelihood procedure. This note shows in the context of Schmeidler-Gilboa preferences under uncertainty, that the Dempster-Schafer rule is in general not ex-ante optimal. This contrasts with Brown’s result that Bayes’ rule is ex-ante optimal for standard Savage preferences with additive probabilities.

Term structure dynamics and no-arbitrage under the Taylor rule

A determinação da taxa de juros estrutura a termo é um dos temas principais da gestão de ativos financeiros. Considerando a grande importância dos ativos financeiros para a condução das políticas econômicas, é fundamental para compreender a estrutura que é determinado. O principal objetivo deste estudo é estimar a estrutura a termo das taxas de juros brasileiras, juntamente com taxa de juros de curto prazo. A estrutura a termo será modelado com base em um modelo com uma estrutura afim. A estimativa foi feita considerando a inclusão de três fatores latentes e duas variáveis ​​macroeconômicas, através da técnica Bayesiana da Cadeia de Monte Carlo Markov (MCMC).

Bailey's rule for the welfare of inflation: a theoretical foundation

This paper demonstrates that for a very general class of monetary models (the Sidrauski type models and the cash-in-advance models), Bailey’s rule to evaluate the welfare efect of infation is in deed accurate. The result applies for any technology or preference, if the long-run capital stock does not depend on the ination rate. In general, a dynamic version of Bailey’s rule is established. In particular, the result extends to models in which there is a banking sector that supplies money substitutes services. A dditionally, it is argued that the relevant money demand concept for this issue- the impact of in ination under welfare- is the monetary base.

Testing the optimality of aggregate consumption decisions: is there rule-of-thumb behavior?

Consumption is an important macroeconomic aggregate, being about 70% of GNP. Finding sub-optimal behavior in consumption decisions casts a serious doubt on whether optimizing behavior is applicable on an economy-wide scale, which, in turn, challenge whether it is applicable at all. This paper has several contributions to the literature on consumption optimality. First, we provide a new result on the basic rule-of-thumb regression, showing that it is observational equivalent to the one obtained in a well known optimizing real-business-cycle model. Second, for rule-of-thumb tests based on the Asset-Pricing Equation, we show that the omission of the higher-order term in the log-linear approximation yields inconsistent estimates when lagged observables are used as instruments. However, these are exactly the instruments that have been traditionally used in this literature. Third, we show that nonlinear estimation of a system of N Asset-Pricing Equations can be done efficiently even if the number of asset returns (N) is high vis-a-vis the number of time-series observations (T). We argue that efficiency can be restored by aggregating returns into a single measure that fully captures intertemporal substitution. Indeed, we show that there is no reason why return aggregation cannot be performed in the nonlinear setting of the Pricing Equation, since the latter is a linear function of individual returns. This forms the basis of a new test of rule-of-thumb behavior, which can be viewed as testing for the importance of rule-of-thumb consumers when the optimizing agent holds an equally-weighted portfolio or a weighted portfolio of traded assets. Using our setup, we find no signs of either rule-of-thumb behavior for U.S. consumers or of habit-formation in consumption decisions in econometric tests. Indeed, we show that the simple representative agent model with a CRRA utility is able to explain the time series data on consumption and aggregate returns. There, the intertemporal discount factor is significant and ranges from 0.956 to 0.969 while the relative risk-aversion coefficient is precisely estimated ranging from 0.829 to 1.126. There is no evidence of rejection in over-identifying-restriction tests.

Repensando a relação entre estado, direito e desenvolvimento: os limites do paradigma rule of law e a relevância das alternativas institucionais

Assumindo a primazia da abordagem institucionalista na agenda contemporânea do desenvolvimento, este artigo procurará discutir alguns de seus limites, descritivos e normativos, no que tange, em especial, ao sistema financeiro. Particularmente, procurar-se-á sugerir que os programas de difusão do rule of law têm se constituído em um paradigma estreito do papel exercido pelo direito, segundo a qual cabe ao ambiente jurídico cumprir, apenas e tão somente, a função de garantidor dos interesses de investidores privados, entendidos como atores centrais de um modelo de financiamento baseado em transações de mercado. O texto sugere que o paradigma rule of law, como estratégia de promoção do desenvolvimento, tem dificuldade em lidar com a existência de alternativas institucionais de organização econômica e financeira, para além de um modelo de mercado baseado em atores atomizados e carentes de segurança jurídica. Um exemplo disso, que escapa do instrumental tradicional, é o modelo brasileiro de financiamento, que, apesar de ter vivenciado inúmeras reformas institucionais, dedicadas a elevar o nível de proteção de investidores, ainda concentra em um banco de desenvolvimento – o BNDES – grande parte do financiamento de longo prazo do país. O artigo assume, portanto, que, sim, o direito e as instituições, de fato, importam para o desenvolvimento, mas há uma variedade de possibilidades e funções a serem exercidas pelos arranjos institucionais e ferramentas jurídicas – muito além do que supõem os programas de rule of law. Uma bem sucedida organização institucional baseada em um banco de desenvolvimento é um exemplo disso.

Compliance to law and effectiveness of the rule of law in Brazil

The goal of this paper is to debate the degree of effectiveness of the rule of law in Brazil, through a survey measuring perceptions, attitudes and habits of Brazilians in regard to compliance to law. The survey conducted in Brazil is based on the study conducted by Tom R. Tyler in the United States, entitled Why People Obey the Law? (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1990). The main argument of Tyler´s study is that people obey the law when they believe it’s legitimate, and not because they fear punishment. We test the same argument in Brazil, relying on five indicators: (i) behavior, which depicts the frequency with which respondents declared to have engaged in conducts in disobedience to the law; (ii) instrumentality, measuring perception of losses associated with the violation of the law, specially fear of punishment; (iii) morality, measuring perception of how much is right or wrong to engage in certain conducts in violation of the law; (iv) social control, which measures perception of social disapproval of certain types of behavior in violation of the law, and (v) legitimacy, which measures the perception of respect to the law and to some authorities. Results indicate that fear of sanctions is not the strongest drive in compliance to law, but more than legitimacy, indicators of morality and social control are the strongest in explaining why people obey the law in Brazil.