Survival of Hendra Virus in the Environment: Modelling the Effect of Temperature

Hendra virus (HeV), a highly pathogenic zoonotic paramyxovirus recently emerged from bats, is a major concern to the horse industry in Australia. Previous research has shown that higher temperatures led to lower virus survival rates in the laboratory. We develop a model of survival of HeV in the environment as influenced by temperature. We used 20 years of daily temperature at six locations spanning the geographic range of reported HeV incidents to simulate the temporal and spatial impacts of temperature on HeV survival. At any location, simulated virus survival was greater in winter than in summer, and in any month of the year, survival was higher in higher latitudes. At any location, year-to-year variation in virus survival 24 h post-excretion was substantial and was as large as the difference between locations. Survival was higher in microhabitats with lower than ambient temperature, and when environmental exposure was shorter. The within-year pattern of virus survival mirrored the cumulative within-year occurrence of reported HeV cases, although there were no overall differences in survival in HeV case years and non-case years. The model examines the effect of temperature in isolation; actual virus survivability will reflect the effect of additional environmental factors

Integrating pest population models with biophysical crop models to better represent the farming system

Farming systems frameworks such as the Agricultural Production Systems simulator (APSIM) represent fluxes through the soil, plant and atmosphere of the system well, but do not generally consider the biotic constraints that function within the system. We designed a method that allowed population models built in DYMEX to interact with APSIM. The simulator engine component of the DYMEX population-modelling platform was wrapped within an APSIM module allowing it to get and set variable values in other APSIM models running in the simulation. A rust model developed in DYMEX is used to demonstrate how the developing rust population reduces the crop's green leaf area. The success of the linking process is seen in the interaction of the two models and how changes in rust population on the crop's leaves feedback to the APSIM crop modifying the growth and development of the crop's leaf area. This linking of population models to simulate pest populations and biophysical models to simulate crop growth and development increases the complexity of the simulation, but provides a tool to investigate biotic constraints within farming systems and further moves APSIM towards being an agro-ecological framework.

An improved simulation model to predict pre-harvest aflatoxin risk in maize

Aflatoxin is a potent carcinogen produced by Aspergillus flavus, which frequently contaminates maize (Zea mays L.) in the field between 40° north and 40° south latitudes. A mechanistic model to predict risk of pre-harvest contamination could assist in management of this very harmful mycotoxin. In this study we describe an aflatoxin risk prediction model which is integrated with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) modelling framework. The model computes a temperature function for A. flavus growth and aflatoxin production using a set of three cardinal temperatures determined in the laboratory using culture medium and intact grains. These cardinal temperatures were 11.5 °C as base, 32.5 °C as optimum and 42.5 °C as maximum. The model used a low (≤0.2) crop water supply to demand ratio—an index of drought during the grain filling stage to simulate maize crop's susceptibility to A. flavus growth and aflatoxin production. When this low threshold of the index was reached the model converted the temperature function into an aflatoxin risk index (ARI) to represent the risk of aflatoxin contamination. The model was applied to simulate ARI for two commercial maize hybrids, H513 and H614D, grown in five multi-location field trials in Kenya using site specific agronomy, weather and soil parameters. The observed mean aflatoxin contamination in these trials varied from <1 to 7143 ppb. ARI simulated by the model explained 99% of the variation (p ≤ 0.001) in a linear relationship with the mean observed aflatoxin contamination. The strong relationship between ARI and aflatoxin contamination suggests that the model could be applied to map risk prone areas and to monitor in-season risk for genotypes and soils parameterized for APSIM.

An improved simulation model to predict pre-harvest aflatoxin risk in maize

Aflatoxin is a potent carcinogen produced by Aspergillus flavus, which frequently contaminates maize (Zea mays L.) in the field between 40° north and 40° south latitudes. A mechanistic model to predict risk of pre-harvest contamination could assist in management of this very harmful mycotoxin. In this study we describe an aflatoxin risk prediction model which is integrated with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) modelling framework. The model computes a temperature function for A. flavus growth and aflatoxin production using a set of three cardinal temperatures determined in the laboratory using culture medium and intact grains. These cardinal temperatures were 11.5 °C as base, 32.5 °C as optimum and 42.5 °C as maximum. The model used a low (≤0.2) crop water supply to demand ratio—an index of drought during the grain filling stage to simulate maize crop's susceptibility to A. flavus growth and aflatoxin production. When this low threshold of the index was reached the model converted the temperature function into an aflatoxin risk index (ARI) to represent the risk of aflatoxin contamination. The model was applied to simulate ARI for two commercial maize hybrids, H513 and H614D, grown in five multi-location field trials in Kenya using site specific agronomy, weather and soil parameters. The observed mean aflatoxin contamination in these trials varied from <1 to 7143 ppb. ARI simulated by the model explained 99% of the variation (p ≤ 0.001) in a linear relationship with the mean observed aflatoxin contamination. The strong relationship between ARI and aflatoxin contamination suggests that the model could be applied to map risk prone areas and to monitor in-season risk for genotypes and soils parameterized for APSIM.

Studies on the out-of-plane behaviour of masonry walls

The prime aim of this PhD thesis is to contribute to the current body of knowledge on the out-of-plane performance of masonry walls through systematic investigation of the key parameters and provide insight into the design clauses of Australian Masonry Standard (AS3700-2011). The research work has been carried out through numerical simulation based on a 3D layered shell element model. The model demonstrated capability to simulate various forms of new and existing masonry systems commonly constructed in Australia such as unreinforced, internally and externally reinforced, confined and dry-stack masonry. In addition, the model simultaneously simulates in-plane and out-of-plane responses.

Factors influencing kinetic and equilibrium behaviour of sodium ion exchange with strong acid cation resin

This study reports an investigation of the ion exchange treatment of sodium chloride solutions in relation to use of resin technology for applications such as desalination of brackish water. In particular, a strong acid cation (SAC) resin (DOW Marathon C) was studied to determine its capacity for sodium uptake and to evaluate the fundamentals of the ion exchange process involved. Key questions to answer included: impact of resin identity; best models to simulate the kinetics and equilibrium exchange behaviour of sodium ions; difference between using linear least squares (LLS) and non-linear least squares (NLLS) methods for data interpretation; and, effect of changing the type of anion in solution which accompanied the sodium species. Kinetic studies suggested that the exchange process was best described by a pseudo first order rate expression based upon non-linear least squares analysis of the test data. Application of the Langmuir Vageler isotherm model was recommended as it allowed confirmation that experimental conditions were sufficient for maximum loading of sodium ions to occur. The Freundlich expression best fitted the equilibrium data when analysing the information by a NLLS approach. In contrast, LLS methods suggested that the Langmuir model was optimal for describing the equilibrium process. The Competitive Langmuir model which considered the stoichiometric nature of ion exchange process, estimated the maximum loading of sodium ions to be 64.7 g Na/kg resin. This latter value was comparable to sodium ion capacities for SAC resin published previously. Inherent discrepancies involved when using linearized versions of kinetic and isotherm equations were illustrated, and despite their widespread use, the value of this latter approach was questionable. The equilibrium behaviour of sodium ions form sodium fluoride solution revealed that the sodium ions were now more preferred by the resin compared to the situation with sodium chloride. The solution chemistry of hydrofluoric acid was suggested as promoting the affinity of the sodium ions to the resin.

Inductor realisation using a finite gain differential amplifier

A finite gain differential amplifier is used along with a few passive RC elements to simulate an inductor. Methods for obtaining low Q inductance and frequency dependent high QI inductance are described. Sensitivity analysis when the gain varies is also included.

Material characterisation and numerical modelling of gypsum plasterboards in fire

The fire resistance characteristic of LSF wall systems mainly depends on the protective linings in use, commonly gypsum plasterboards. However, unclassified boards with varying composition and more notably with ambiguous thermal properties are increasingly becoming available in the market. Therefore a study was undertaken with an aim to set minimum standards for fire protective boards used in LSF wall applications. This paper presents the details of this study based on material characterisation and finite element thermal modelling of the most commonly used fire protective board, gypsum plasterboards, to address these critical issues related to fire safety design. In the material characterisation phase of this study, thermal properties of three different gypsum plasterboards manufactured in Australia were measured, analysed and compared. Subsequently, it proposes a thermal property based “k-factor” capable of giving an overall measure of the fire performance of boards, so that it can be used in appropriately classifying fire protective boards. As it is not known how this factor relates to the overall fire performance of LSF wall systems, numerical models were also developed and used to simulate the performance of LSF walls exposed to the standard fire. Finally, a correlation between time-temperature profiles from numerical analyses and calculated k-factors was established.

Mechanisms and molecular regulation of mammalian tooth replacement

In most non-mammalian vertebrates, such as fish and reptiles, teeth are replaced continuously. However, tooth replacement in most mammals, including human, takes place only once and further renewal is apparently inhibited. It is not known how tooth replacement is genetically regulated, and little is known on the physiological mechanism and evolutionary reduction of tooth replacement in mammals. In this study I have attempted to address these questions. In a rare human condition cleidocranial dysplasia, caused by a mutation in a Runt domain transcription factor Runx2, tooth replacement is continued. Runx2 mutant mice were used to investigate the molecular mechanisms of Runx2 function. Microarray analysis from dissected embryonic day 14 Runx2 mutant and wild type dental mesenchymes revealed many downstream targets of Runx2, which were validated using in situ hybridization and tissue culture methods. Wnt signaling inhibitor Dkk1 was identified as a candidate target, and in tissue culture conditions it was shown that Dkk1 is induced by FGF4 and this induction is Runx2 dependent. These experiments demonstrated a connection between Runx2, FGF and Wnt signaling in tooth development and possibly also in tooth replacement. The role of Wnt signaling in tooth replacement was further investigated by using a transgenic mouse model where Wnt signaling mediator β-catenin is continuously stabilized in dental epithelium. This stabilization led to activated Wnt signaling and to the formation of multiple enamel knots. In vitro and transplantation experiments were performed to examine the process of extra tooth formation. We showed that new teeth were continuously generated and that new teeth form from pre-existing teeth. A morphodynamic activator-inhibitor model was used to simulate enamel knot formation. By increasing the intrinsic production rate of the activator (β-catenin), the multiple enamel knot phenotype was reproduced by computer simulations. It was thus concluded that β-catenin acts as an upstream activator of enamel knots, closely linking Wnt signaling to the regulation of tooth renewal. As mice do not normally replace teeth, we used other model animals to investigate the physiological and genetic mechanisms of tooth replacement. Sorex araneus, the common shrew was earlier reported to have non-functional tooth replacement in all antemolar tooth positions. We showed by histological and gene expression studies that there is tooth replacement only in one position, the premolar 4 and that the deciduous tooth is diminished in size and disappears during embryogenesis without becoming functional. The growth rates of deciduous and permanent premolar 4 were measured and it was shown by competence inference that the early initiation of the replacement tooth in relation to the developmental stage of the deciduous tooth led to the inhibition of deciduous tooth morphogenesis. It was concluded that the evolutionary loss of deciduous teeth may involve the early activation of replacement teeth, which in turn suppress their predecessors. Mustela putorius furo, the ferret, has a dentition that resembles that of the human as ferrets have teeth that belong to all four tooth families, and all the antemolar teeth are replaced once. To investigate the replacement mechanism, histological serial sections from different embryonic stages were analyzed. It was noticed that tooth replacement is a process which involves the growth and detachment of the dental lamina from the lingual cervical loop of the deciduous tooth. Detachment of the deciduous tooth leads to a free successional dental lamina, which grows deeper into the mesenchyme, and later buds the replacement tooth. A careful 3D analysis of serial histological sections was performed and it was shown that replacement teeth are initiated from the successional dental lamina and not from the epithelium of the deciduous tooth. The molecular regulation of tooth replacement was studied and it was shown by examination of expression patterns of candidate regulatory genes that BMP/Wnt inhibitor Sostdc1 was strongly expressed in the buccal aspect of the dental lamina, and in the intersection between the detaching deciduous tooth and the successional dental lamina, suggesting a role for Sostdc1 in the process of detachment. Shh was expressed in the enamel knot and in the inner enamel epithelium in both generations of teeth supporting the view that the morphogenesis of both generations of teeth is regulated by similar mechanisms. In summary, histological and molecular studies on different model animals and transgenic mouse models were used to investigate tooth replacement. This thesis work has significantly contributed to the knowledge on the physiological mechanisms and molecular regulation of tooth replacement and its evolutionary suppression in mammals.

Assimilation of remote sensing and hydrological data using adaptive filtering techniques for watershed modelling

The knowledge of hydrological variables (e. g. soil moisture, evapotranspiration) are of pronounced importance in various applications including flood control, agricultural production and effective water resources management. These applications require the accurate prediction of hydrological variables spatially and temporally in watershed/basin. Though hydrological models can simulate these variables at desired resolution (spatial and temporal), often they are validated against the variables, which are either sparse in resolution (e. g. soil moisture) or averaged over large regions (e. g. runoff). A combination of the distributed hydrological model (DHM) and remote sensing (RS) has the potential to improve resolution. Data assimilation schemes can optimally combine DHM and RS. Retrieval of hydrological variables (e. g. soil moisture) from remote sensing and assimilating it in hydrological model requires validation of algorithms using field studies. Here we present a review of methodologies developed to assimilate RS in DHM and demonstrate the application for soil moisture in a small experimental watershed in south India.

The influence of eutrophication on sexual selection in sticklebacks

Jordens ekologiska system undergår för tillfället stora förändringar pga. människans aktiviteter. Ett växande antal studier visar att dessa förändringar påverkar naturliga och sexuella urvalet och därmed evolutiva processer. Målet med detta arbete var att undersöka effekterna av omgivningsförändringar på sexuella urvalet genom att använda den ökade övergödningen inom storpiggen Gasterosteus aculeatus lekområden som modell system. Sexuella urvalet är en viktig evolutiv kraft med följder på populations- och artnivå (Kapitel 1). Avhandlingens olika delar fokuserar på övergödningens effekter på upptäckandet av partners, användningen av visuella- och doftsignaler i partnersval, och fördelningen av parningsframgången mellan bobyggande hanar. I Kapitel II och III simuleras hur grumlighet orsakad av fytoplankton påverkar hastigheten med vilken potentiella partners påträffas, genom effekter på synligheten. Resultaten visar att normala algblomningar i Östersjön har en måttlig effekt på finnandet av potentiella partners. Detta tyder på att algblomningarna troligen inte kommer att minska på selektiva parningen pga. ökade sökkostnader. I Kapitel IV visas att storspiggen ändrar relativa användningen av olika signaler när vattnets grumlighet ökar; visuella signaler minskar i betydelse medan doftsignaler ökar i betydelse. Samtidigt underlättas användandet av doftsignaler av ändringar i vattnets kemiska sammansättning då fotosyntesen intensifieras (Kapitel V). Lek i övergödda vatten kan ändå vara kostsamt både på individ- och populationsnivån, då parasiterade hanar, som troligen är dåligt genetiskt anpassade till sin miljö, lyckas få mer ägg i sina bon än friskare hanar som troligen är av högre genetisk kvalitet (Kapitel VI). Övergödningen påverkar således partnersval och konkurrensen om partners genom att påverka upptäckandet av potentiella partners, evalueringen av partners och fördelningen av partners inom lekområdena. De följder detta kan ha för evolutionen av sexuellt selekterad egenskaper och för populationers dynamik och livskraft är dock oklara. Avhandlingen visar på svårigheten att förutse följderna av omgivningsförändringar för sexuella urvalet och effekterna på individ och populationsnivå.

Mechanism design of ventricular assist device

This research presents an innovative design approach for the development of high efficiency Ventricular assist device that can be used for long-term support a heart failure patient. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques were applied to the development and intensive analysis to improve the performance and reliability of the pump. From the CFD analysis, a prototype pump was created and evaluated on the mock circulation loop that simulate the human circulatory system environment to evaluate its performance in support varying heart conditions.

Modeling of heat and mass transfer for solid state fermentation process in tray bioreactor

A mathematical model is developed to simulate oxygen consumption, heat generation and cell growth in solid state fermentation (SSF). The fungal growth on the solid substrate particles results in the increase of the cell film thickness around the particles. The model incorporates this increase in the biofilm size which leads to decrease in the porosity of the substrate bed and diffusivity of oxygen in the bed. The model also takes into account the effect of steric hindrance limitations in SSF. The growth of cells around single particle and resulting expansion of biofilm around the particle is analyzed for simplified zero and first order oxygen consumption kinetics. Under conditions of zero order kinetics, the model predicts upper limit on cell density. The model simulations for packed bed of solid particles in tray bioreactor show distinct limitations on growth due to simultaneous heat and mass transport phenomena accompanying solid state fermentation process. The extent of limitation due to heat and/or mass transport phenomena is analyzed during different stages of fermentation. It is expected that the model will lead to better understanding of the transport processes in SSF, and therefore, will assist in optimal design of bioreactors for SSF.

Post-liquefaction undrained monotonic behaviour of sands: experiments and DEM simulations

This paper presents the results of a series of servo-controlled cyclic triaxial tests and numerical simulations using the three- dimensional discrete element method (DEM) on post-liquefaction undrained monotonic strength of granular materials. In a first test series,undrained monotonic tests were carried out after dissipating the excess pore water pressure developed during liquefaction. The influence of different parameters such as amplitude of axial strain,relative density and confining pressure prior to liquefaction on the post-liquefaction undrained response have been investigated.The results obtained highlight an insignificant influence of amplitude of axial strain, confining pressure and a significant influence of relative density on the post-liquefaction undrained monotonic stress-strain response.In the second series, undrained monotonic tests were carried out on similar triaxial samples without dissipating the excess pore water pressure developed during liquefaction. The results highlight that the amplitude of axial strain prior to liquefaction has a significant influence on the post-liquefaction undrained monotonic response.In addition,DEM simulations have been carried out on an assembly of spheres to simulate post-liquefaction behaviour.The simulations were very similar to the experiments with an objective to understand the behaviour of monotonic strength of liquefied samples from the grain scale. The numerical simulations using DEM have captured qualitatively all the features of the post-liquefaction undrained monotonic response in a manner similar to that of the experiments.In addition,a detailed study on the evolution of micromechanical parameters such as the average coordination number and induced anisotropic coefficients has been reported during the post-liquefaction undrained monotonic loading.

A real-time algorithm for simulation of flexible objects and hyper-redundant manipulators

Flexible objects such as a rope or snake move in a way such that their axial length remains almost constant. To simulate the motion of such an object, one strategy is to discretize the object into large number of small rigid links connected by joints. However, the resulting discretised system is highly redundant and the joint rotations for a desired Cartesian motion of any point on the object cannot be solved uniquely. In this paper, we revisit an algorithm, based on the classical tractrix curve, to resolve the redundancy in such hyper-redundant systems. For a desired motion of the `head' of a link, the `tail' is moved along a tractrix, and recursively all links of the discretised objects are moved along different tractrix curves. The algorithm is illustrated by simulations of a moving snake, tying of knots with a rope and a solution of the inverse kinematics of a planar hyper-redundant manipulator. The simulations show that the tractrix based algorithm leads to a more `natural' motion since the motion is distributed uniformly along the entire object with the displacements diminishing from the `head' to the `tail'.