On the robustness of short-term interest rate models

This paper investigates the robustness of a range of short–term interest rate models. We examine the robustness of these models over different data sets, time periods, sampling frequencies, and estimation techniques. We examine a range of popular one–factor models that allow the conditional mean (drift) and conditional variance (diffusion) to be functions of the current short rate. We find that parameter estimates are highly sensitive to all of these factors in the eight countries that we examine. Since parameter estimates are not robust, these models should be used with caution in practice.

Effects of herbicides diuron and atrazine on corals of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

In response to recent reports of contamination of the nearshore marine environment along the Queensland coast by herbicides (including areas inside the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park), an ecotoxicological assessment was conducted of the impact of the herbicides diuron and atrazine on scleractinian corals. Pulse-amplitude modulated (PAM) chlorophyll fluorescence techniques were used to assess the herbicide effects on the symbiotic dinoflagellates within the tissues (in hospite) of 4 species of coral (Acropora formosa, Montipora digitata, Porites cylindrica, Seriatopora hystrix) in static toxicity tests, and in freshly isolated symbiotic dinoflagellates from Stylophora pistillata. Using change in the effective quantum yield (DeltaF/F-m') as an effect criterion, diuron (no observable effect concentration, NOEC = 0.3 mug 1(-1); lowest observable effect concentration, LOEC = 1 mug 1(-1); median effective concentration, EC50 4 to 6 mug 1(-1)) was found to be more toxic than atrazine (NOEC = 1 mug 1(-1), LOEC = 3 mug 1(-1), EC50 40 to 90 mug 1(-1)) in short-term (10 h) toxicity tests. In the tests with isolated algae, significant reductions in DeltaF/F-m' were recorded as low as 0.25 mug 1(-1) diuron (LOEC, EC50 = 5 mug 1(-1)). Time-course experiments indicated that the effects of diuron were rapid and reversible. At 10 mug 1(-1) diuron, DeltaF/F-m' was reduced by 25% in 20 to 30 min, and by 50% in 60 to 90 min. Recovery of DeltaF/F-m' in corals exposed to 10 mug 1(-1) diuron and then transferred to running seawater was slower, returning to within 10% of control values inside 1 to 7 h. The effect of a reduction in salinity (35 to 27%) on diuron toxicity (at 1 and 3 mug 1(-1) diuron) was tested to examine the potential consequences of contaminated coastal flood plumes inundating inshore reefs. DeltaF/F-m' was reduced in the diuron-exposed corals, but there was no significant interaction between diuron and reduced salinity seawater within the 10 h duration of the test. Exposure to higher (100 and 1000 mug 1(-1)) diuron concentrations for 96 h caused a reduction in DeltaF/F-m' the ratio variable to maximal fluorescence (F,1F.), significant loss of symbiotic dinoflagellates and pronounced tissue retraction, causing the corals to pale or bleach. The significance of the results in relation to diuron contamination of the coastal marine environment from terrestrial sources (mainly agricultural) and marine sources (antifouling paints) are discussed.

Simultaneous observations of ionospheric quasiperiodic scintillations from short and long meridional baselines using VHF transmissions from transit satellites

For the first time it was possible to observe regular quasiperiodic scintillations (QPS) in VHF radio-satellite transmissions from orbiting satellites simultaneously at short (2.1 km) and long (121 km) meridional baselines in the vicinity of a typical mid-latitude station (Brisbane; 27.5degreesS and 152.9degreesE geog. and 35.6degrees invar.lat.), using three sites (St. Lucia-S, Taringa-T in Brisbane and Boreen Pt.-B, north of Brisbane). A few pronounced quasiperiodic (QP) events were recorded showing unambiguous regular structures at the sites which made it possible to deduce a time displacement of the regular fading minimum at S, T and B. The QP structure is highly dependent on the geometry of the ray-path from a satellite to the observer which is manifested as a change of a QP event from symmetrical to non-symmetrical for stations separated by 2.1 km, and to a radical change in the structure of the event over a distance of 121 km. It is suggested the short-duration intense QP events are due to a Fresnel diffraction (or a reflection mechanism) of radio-satellite signals by a single ionospheric irregularity in a form of an ellipsoid with a large ionization gradient along the major axis. The structure of a QP event depends on the angle of viewing of the irregular blob from a radio-satellite. In view of this it is suggested that the reported variety of the ionization formation, responsible for different types of QPS, is only apparent but not real. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A DC Voltage-Multiplier Circuit Working as a High-Voltage Pulse Generator

The intensive use of semiconductor devices enabled the development of a repetitive high-voltage pulse-generator topology from the dc voltage-multiplier (VM) concept. The proposed circuit is based on an odd VM-type circuit, where a number of dc capacitors share a common connection with different voltage ratings in each one, and the output voltage comes from a single capacitor. Standard VM rectifier and coupling diodes are used for charging the energy-storing capacitors, from an ac power supply, and two additional on/off semiconductors in each stage, to switch from the typical charging VM mode to a pulse mode with the dc energy-storing capacitors connected in series with the load. Results from a 2-kV experimental prototype with three stages, delivering a 10-mu s pulse with a 5-kHz repetition rate into a resistive load, are discussed. Additionally, the proposed circuit is compared against the solid-state Marx generator topology for the same peak input and output voltages.

A hybrid PSO-ANFIS approach for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal

The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Wind power prediction plays a key role in tackling these challenges. The contribution of this paper is to propose a new hybrid approach, combining particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal. Significant improvements regarding forecasting accuracy are attainable using the proposed approach, in comparison with the results obtained with five other approaches.

Repetitive Solid State Pulse Modulator Based on a DC Voltage Multiplier

A newly developed solid-state repetitive high-voltage (HV) pulse modulator topology created from the mature concept of the d.c. voltage multiplier (VM) is described. The proposed circuit is based in a voltage multiplier type circuit, where a number of d.c. capacitors share a common connection with different voltage rating in each one. Hence, besides the standard VM rectifier and coupling diodes, two solid-state on/off switches are used, in each stage, to switch from the typical charging VM mode to a pulse mode with the d.c. capacitors connected in series with the load. Due to the on/off semiconductor configuration, in half-bridge structures, the maximum voltage blocked by each one is the d.c. capacitor voltage in each stage. A 2 kV prototype is described and the results are compared with PSPICE simulations.

An artificial neural network approach for short-term wind power forecasting in Portugal

This paper presents an artificial neural network approach for short-term wind power forecasting in Portugal. The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Hence, good forecasting tools play a key role in tackling these challenges. The accuracy of the wind power forecasting attained with the proposed approach is evaluated against persistence and ARIMA approaches, reporting the numerical results from a real-world case study.

Nonlinear optimization method for short-term hydro scheduling considering head-dependency

This paper is on the problem of short-term hydro scheduling, particularly concerning head-dependent reservoirs under competitive environment. We propose a new nonlinear optimization method to consider hydroelectric power generation as a function of water discharge and also of the head. Head-dependency is considered on short-term hydro scheduling in order to obtain more realistic and feasible results. The proposed method has been applied successfully to solve a case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems, providing a higher profit at a negligible additional computation time in comparison with a linear optimization method that ignores head-dependency.

From unthinned continent to ocean: The deep structure of the West Iberia passive continental margin at 38 degrees N

The crustal and lithospheric mantle structure at the south segment of the west Iberian margin was investigated along a 370 km long seismic transect. The transect goes from unthinned continental crust onshore to oceanic crust, crossing the ocean-continent transition (OCT) zone. The wide-angle data set includes recordings from 6 OBSs and 2 inland seismic stations. Kinematic and dynamic modeling provided a 2D velocity model that proved to be consistent with the modeled free-air anomaly data. The interpretation of coincident multi-channel near-vertical and wide-angle reflection data sets allowed the identification of four main crustal domains: (i) continental (east of 9.4 degrees W); (ii) continental thinning (9.4 degrees W-9.7 degrees W): (iii) transitional (9.7 degrees W-similar to 10.5 degrees W); and (iv) oceanic (west of similar to 10.5 degrees W). In the continental domain the complete crustal section of slightly thinned continental crust is present. The upper (UCC, 5.1-6.0 km/s) and the lower continental crust (LCC, 6.9-7.2 km/s) are seismically reflective and have intermediate to low P-wave velocity gradients. The middle continental crust (MCC, 6.35-6.45 km/s) is generally unreflective with low velocity gradient. The main thinning of the continental crust occurs in the thinning domain by attenuation of the UCC and the LCC. Major thinning of the MCC starts to the west of the LCC pinchout point, where it rests directly upon the mantle. In the thinning domain the Moho slope is at least 13 degrees and the continental crust thickness decreases seaward from 22 to 11 km over a similar to 35 km distance, stretched by a factor of 1.5 to 3. In the oceanic domain a two-layer high-gradient igneous crust (5.3-6.0 km/s; 6.5-7.4 km/s) was modeled. The intra-crustal interface correlates with prominent mid-basement, 10-15 km long reflections in the multi-channel seismic profile. Strong secondary reflected PmP phases require a first order discontinuity at the Moho. The sedimentary cover can be as thick as 5 km and the igneous crustal thickness varies from 4 to 11 km in the west, where the profile reaches the Madeira-Tore Rise. In the transitional domain the crust has a complex structure that varies both horizontally and vertically. Beneath the continental slope it includes exhumed continental crust (6.15-6.45 km/s). Strong diffractions were modeled to originate at the lower interface of this layer. The western segment of this transitional domain is highly reflective at all levels, probably due to dykes and sills, according to the high apparent susceptibility and density modeled at this location. Sub-Moho mantle velocity is found to be 8.0 km/s, but velocities smaller than 8.0 km/s confined to short segments are not excluded by the data. Strong P-wave wide-angle reflections are modeled to originate at depth of 20 km within the lithospheric mantle, under the eastern segment of the oceanic domain, or even deeper at the transitional domain, suggesting a layered structure for the lithospheric mantle. Both interface depths and velocities of the continental section are in good agreement to the conjugate Newfoundland margin. A similar to 40 km wide OCT having a geophysical signature distinct from the OCT to the north favors a two pulse continental breakup.

Enhanced short wavelength response in laser-scanned-photodiode image sensor using an a-SiC : H/a-Si : H tandem structure

We report in this paper the recent advances we obtained in optimizing a color image sensor based on the laser-scanned-photodiode (LSP) technique. A novel device structure based on a a-SiC:H/a-Si:H pin/pin tandem structure has been tested for a proper color separation process that takes advantage on the different filtering properties due to the different light penetration depth at different wavelengths a-SM and a-SiC:H. While the green and the red images give, in comparison with previous tested structures, a weak response, this structure shows a very good recognition of blue color under reverse bias, leaving a good margin for future device optimization in order to achieve a complete and satisfactory RGB image mapping. Experimental results about the spectral collection efficiency are presented and discussed from the point of view of the color sensor applications. The physics behind the device functioning is explained by recurring to a numerical simulation of the internal electrical configuration of the device.

Modelling of n-stage Blumlein stacked lines for bipolar pulse generation

A Blumlein line is a particular Pulse Forming Line, PFL, configuration that allows the generation of high-voltage sub-microsecond square pulses, with the same voltage amplitude as the dc charging voltage, into a matching load. By stacking n Blumlein lines one can multiply in theory by n the input dc voltage charging amplitude. In order to understand the operating behavior of this electromagnetic system and to further optimize its operation it is fundamental to theoretically model it, that is to calculate the voltage amplitudes at each circuit point and the time instant that happens. In order to do this, one needs to define the reflection and transmission coefficients where impedance discontinuity occurs. The experimental results of a fast solid-state switch, which discharges a three stage Blumlein stack, will be compared with theoretical ones.

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market by a hybrid PSO-ANFIS approach

In this paper, a novel hybrid approach is proposed for electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market, considering a time horizon of 1 week. The proposed approach is based on the combination of particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications, to demonstrate its effectiveness regarding forecasting accuracy and computation time. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference for wind power short-term forecasting

The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Hence, good forecasting tools play a key role in tackling these challenges. In this paper, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference approach is proposed for short-term wind power forecasting. Results from a real-world case study are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results obtained with other approaches. Numerical results are presented and conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2011 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.