Analytical approach to quantile estimation in regional frequency analysis based on fuzzy framework

Regional frequency analysis is widely used for estimating quantiles of hydrological extreme events at sparsely gauged/ungauged target sites in river basins. It involves identification of a region (group of watersheds) resembling watershed of the target site, and use of information pooled from the region to estimate quantile for the target site. In the analysis, watershed of the target site is assumed to completely resemble watersheds in the identified region in terms of mechanism underlying generation of extreme event. In reality, it is rare to find watersheds that completely resemble each other. Fuzzy clustering approach can account for partial resemblance of watersheds and yield region(s) for the target site. Formation of regions and quantile estimation requires discerning information from fuzzy-membership matrix obtained based on the approach. Practitioners often defuzzify the matrix to form disjoint clusters (regions) and use them as the basis for quantile estimation. The defuzzification approach (DFA) results in loss of information discerned on partial resemblance of watersheds. The lost information cannot be utilized in quantile estimation, owing to which the estimates could have significant error. To avert the loss of information, a threshold strategy (TS) was considered in some prior studies. In this study, it is analytically shown that the strategy results in under-prediction of quantiles. To address this, a mathematical approach is proposed in this study and its effectiveness in estimating flood quantiles relative to DFA and TS is demonstrated through Monte-Carlo simulation experiments and case study on Mid-Atlantic water resources region, USA. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ranking general circulation models for India using TOPSIS

Eleven general circulation models/global climate models (GCMs) - BCCR-BCCM2.0, INGV-ECHAM4, GFDL2.0, GFDL2.1, GISS, IPSL-CM4, MIROC3, MRI-CGCM2, NCAR-PCMI, UKMO-HADCM3 and UKMO-HADGEM1 - are evaluated for Indian climate conditions using the performance indicator, skill score (SS). Two climate variables, temperature T (at three levels, i.e. 500, 700, 850 mb) and precipitation rate (Pr) are considered resulting in four SS-based evaluation criteria (T500, T700, T850, Pr). The multicriterion decision-making method, technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution, is applied to rank 11 GCMs. Efforts are made to rank GCMs for the Upper Malaprabha catchment and two river basins, namely, Krishna and Mahanadi (covered by 17 and 15 grids of size 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees, respectively). Similar efforts are also made for India (covered by 73 grid points of size 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees) for which an ensemble of GFDL2.0, INGV-ECHAM4, UKMO-HADCM3, MIROC3, BCCR-BCCM2.0 and GFDL2.1 is found to be suitable. It is concluded that the proposed methodology can be applied to similar situations with ease.

Effect of catchment characteristics on the relationship between past discharge and the power law recession coefficient

This study concerns the relationship between the power law recession coefficient k (in - dQ/dt = kQ(alpha), Q being discharge at the basin outlet) and past average discharge Q(N) (where N is the temporal distance from the center of the selected time span in the past to the recession peak), which serves as a proxy for past storage state of the basin. The strength of the k-Q(N) relationship is characterized by the coefficient of determination R-N(2), which is expected to indicate the basin's ability to hold water for N days. The main objective of this study is to examine how R-N(2) value of a basin is related with its physical characteristics. For this purpose, we use streamflow data from 358 basins in the United States and selected 18 physical parameters for each basin. First, we transform the physical parameters into mutually independent principal components. Then we employ multiple linear regression method to construct a model of R-N(2) in terms of the principal components. Furthermore, we employ step-wise multiple linear regression method to identify the dominant catchment characteristics that influence R-N(2) and their directions of influence. Our results indicate that R-N(2) is appreciably related to catchment characteristics. Particularly, it is noteworthy that the coefficient of determination of the relationship between R-N(2) and the catchment characteristics is 0.643 for N = 45. We found that topographical characteristics of a basin are the most dominant factors in controlling the value of R-N(2). Our results may be suggesting that it is possible to tell about the water holding capacity of a basin by just knowing about a few of its physical characteristics. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Isolating the impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow

Quantifying the isolated and integrated impacts of land use (LU) and climate change on streamflow is challenging as well as crucial to optimally manage water resources in river basins. This paper presents a simple hydrologic modeling-based approach to segregate the impacts of land use and climate change on the streamflow of a river basin. The upper Ganga basin (UGB) in India is selected as the case study to carry out the analysis. Streamflow in the river basin is modeled using a calibrated variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The approach involves development of three scenarios to understand the influence of land use and climate on streamflow. The first scenario assesses the sensitivity of streamflow to land use changes under invariant climate. The second scenario determines the change in streamflow due to change in climate assuming constant land use. The third scenario estimates the combined effect of changing land use and climate over the streamflow of the basin. Based on the results obtained from the three scenarios, quantification of isolated impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow is addressed. Future projections of climate are obtained from dynamically downscaled simulations of six general circulation models (GCMs) available from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. Uncertainties associated with the GCMs and emission scenarios are quantified in the analysis. Results for the case study indicate that streamflow is highly sensitive to change in urban areas and moderately sensitive to change in cropland areas. However, variations in streamflow generally reproduce the variations in precipitation. The combined effect of land use and climate on streamflow is observed to be more pronounced compared to their individual impacts in the basin. It is observed from the isolated effects of land use and climate change that climate has a more dominant impact on streamflow in the region. The approach proposed in this paper is applicable to any river basin to isolate the impacts of land use change and climate change on the streamflow.

A recursive multi-scaling approach to regional flood frequency analysis

Scaling approaches are widely used by hydrologists for Regional Frequency Analysis (RFA) of floods at ungauged/sparsely gauged site(s) in river basins. This paper proposes a Recursive Multi-scaling (RMS) approach to RFA that overcomes limitations of conventional simple- and multi-scaling approaches. The approach involves identification of a separate set of attributes corresponding to each of the sites (being considered in the study area/region) in a recursive manner according to their importance, and utilizing those attributes to construct effective regional regression relationships to estimate statistical raw moments (SMs) of peak flows. The SMs are then utilized to arrive at parameters of flood frequency distribution and quantile estimate(s) corresponding to target return period(s). Effectiveness of the RMS approach in arriving at flood quantile estimates for ungauged sites is demonstrated through leave-one-out cross-validation experiment on watersheds in Indiana State, USA. Results indicate that the approach outperforms index-flood based Region-of-Influence approach, simple- and multi-scaling approaches and a multiple linear regression method. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the Index-Flood Approach Related Regional Frequency Analysis Procedures

Index-flood related regional frequency analysis (RFA) procedures are in use by hydrologists to estimate design quantiles of hydrological extreme events at data sparse/ungauged locations in river basins. There is a dearth of attempts to establish which among those procedures is better for RFA in the L-moment framework. This paper evaluates the performance of the conventional index flood (CIF), the logarithmic index flood (LIF), and two variants of the population index flood (PIF) procedures in estimating flood quantiles for ungauged locations by Monte Carlo simulation experiments and a case study on watersheds in Indiana in the U.S. To evaluate the PIF procedure, L-moment formulations are developed for implementing the procedure in situations where the regional frequency distribution (RFD) is the generalized logistic (GLO), generalized Pareto (GPA), generalized normal (GNO) or Pearson type III (PE3), as those formulations are unavailable. Results indicate that one of the variants of the PIF procedure, which utilizes the regional information on the first two L-moments is more effective than the CIF and LIF procedures. The improvement in quantile estimation using the variant of PIF procedure as compared with the CIF procedure is significant when the RFD is a generalized extreme value, GLO, GNO, or PE3, and marginal when it is GPA. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.

An out-of-plane linear motion measurement system based on optical beam deflection

Measurement of out-of-plane linear motion with high precision and bandwidth is indispensable for development of precision motion stages and for dynamic characterization of mechanical structures. This paper presents an optical beam deflection (OBD) based system for measurement of out-of-plane linear motion for fully reflective samples. The system also achieves nearly zero cross-sensitivity to angular motion, and a large working distance. The sensitivities to linear and angular motion are analytically obtained and employed to optimize the system design. The optimal shot-noise limited resolution is shown to be less than one angstrom over a bandwidth in excess of 1 kHz. Subsequently, the system is experimentally realized and the sensitivities to out-of-plane motions are calibrated using a novel strategy. The linear sensitivity is found to be in agreement with theory. The angular sensitivity is shown to be over 7.5-times smaller than that of conventional OBD. Finally, the measurement system is employed to measure the transient response of a piezo-positioner, and, with the aid of an open-loop controller, reduce the settling time by about 90%. It is also employed to operate the positioner in closed-loop and demonstrate significant minimization of hysteresis and positioning error.

Los dilemas de la acción colectiva global. Un estudio de caso : el movimiento sindical en el MERCOSUR (1991-2012)

Resumen: Este trabajo analiza la acción colectiva sindical postnacional en el MERCOSUR en un período histórico signado por profundas mutaciones políticas, económicas, y productivas sociales (1991-2012) a partir de los relatos y representaciones de sus protagonistas. El trabajo cualitativo intentará explicar la configuración del sindicalismo internacional en la globalización, y describir las estrategias del movimiento obrero mercosureño. La metodología cualitativa ilustra un trabajo de campo a partir de entrevistas en profundidad a 34 sindicalistas del Mercosur, y entrevistas adicionales a tres representantes de la Confederación Sindical de las Américas, dos empresarios del Mercosur, un especialista académico en la dimensión sociolaboral de la integración regional y un representante de la OIT en la región. La metodología de análisis e interpretación de dichas entrevistas ha sido la teoría fundamentada, entendida como la técnica más idónea de aprehender los procesos sociales a través de las voces de los líderes obreros, comprender su realidad, sus representaciones y sistema de valores, sus ideas y su acción colectiva. La literatura de los movimientos sociales en la globalización capitalista ha puesto el énfasis en la emergencia de nuevos colectivos cuyos reclamos se concentran en el reconocimiento (Fraser y Honneth, 2006) de sus identidades que el modelo fordista de producción pareció invisibilizar y soslayar ante la primacía de las prácticas económicas y demandas distributivas. Esta tesis conjuga una perspectiva dualista y demuestra que las estrategias de reconocimiento y las reivindicaciones de redistribución de tipo clasista se resignificaron en el escenario postnacional a través de la Coordinadora de Centrales Sindicales del Cono Sur –CCSCS- (subregional) y, con un desarrollo menor: los Sindicatos Globales (FSI, GUFs) en la acción sectorial [1991-2012]. Para arribar al núcleo configurativo de sus representaciones y su sistema de valores, la investigación transitó por los sentidos y significados del trabajo, las mutaciones productivas y de las condiciones del trabajo, las teorías del fin del trabajo, la precarización y la representación de los trabajadores más frágiles: mujeres, jóvenes y migrantes. En un segundo orden se interpeló sobre la gobernanza mundial, los organismos internacionales, el régimen normativo internacional, la civilización capitalista, para luego abordar el estudio específico del Mercosur y la acción obrera en dicho proceso. El núcleo determinó que para los representantes obreros la acción colectiva sindical debe ser postnacional y su objetivo es limitar la globalización capitalista neoliberal. La CCSCS conformó desde sus inicios un movimiento capaz de elevarse al rango supranacional para representar la voz de los trabajadores del MERCOSUR. La pluralidad configuró su mayor virtud durante sus primeros 20 años, reconociendo una experiencia de aprendizaje de tolerancia y respeto, que ellos definen como la unidad en la diversidad. Esta entidad constituye un patrimonio único como paradigma del sindicalismo postnacional. Los sindicatos del Cono Sur adoptaron diversas modalidades de acción colectiva: a) reactiva (con repertorios de insubordinación, de lucha y resistencia al modelo neoliberal), b) proactiva (con repertorios de incidencia normativa en el MERCOSUR) y c) participativa (con repertorios de producción propositiva de incidencia en la dimensión social del MERCOSUR). Su acción colectiva reactiva, normativa y propositiva fue eficaz a mediano plazo para participar e incidir en el MERCOSUR, crear una dimensión social del bloque y dotar de derechos normativos a los ciudadanos de la región. Su acción tuvo un sentido político de gran poder instituyente, con capacidad movilización y alta exposición pública. Sin embargo, en la segunda década su lógica de construcción quedó subordinada a los procesos nacionales y a los partidos gobernantes, dejó de ser performativa y de creación política, dirimiéndose en la esfera social junto a otros movimientos sociales emergentes, y provocó un ciclo de desmovilización. Simultáneamente, emergió con fuerza otra modalidad de sindicalismo postnacional con la fusión y refundación de los Sindicatos Globales. Su acción sectorial contribuye a restaurar las demandas de distribución que habían quedado soslayadas, pero esta tesis manifiesta que los protagonistas afirman que sus marcos de acción colectiva deberán ser conjuntos para ser exitosa. El sindicalismo postnacional en el MERCOSUR se define a sí mismos como agente de desarrollo, protagonista del modelo socioproductivo, pero también como vehículo partícipe de la democracia y de una matriz sustentable de desarrollo

The MBA-LBA I period in the Kourion region : new evidences from Erimi- Laonin tou Porakou (Lemesos, Cyprus)

The evidence from Erimi-Laonin tou Porakou within the Kouris valley settlement system can offer further new data to outline a picture of the development trends from MBA to LBA I periods in the Kourion region. As to this area, such a “transitional” phase could be particularly relevant to better understand the development process of the mature LBA II–III urban centers (in Alassa as well as the most recent discovered in Erimi-Pitharka). In 2008–2009 a focus investigation (an intensive survey, geoperspections and excavations) within the Kouris Valley Project has been addressed to the site of Erimi-Laonin tou Porakou, which lies on one of the highest hilltops facing southward the Kouris dam. The excavations evidenced a double circuit wall which surrounds the top mound and the lower terrace. The top mound (Area A) has been widely occupied by a complex workshop, directly linked with a storage area. The natural limestone bedrock has been worked out to arrange a system of carved deep basins connected each other by a series of flow channels. Southward from the workshop, a large storage area has been cleared, with a relevant assemblage of big pithoi and storage devices. The first lower terrace area (Area B) has been possibly occupied by a domestic quarter; a cemetery area (Area E) has been also evidenced outside the external circuit wall, where a series of five rock-cut tombs (Tombs 228– 232) with single chamber and small incoming dromoi has been excavated.

Effects of Particle Size on Dilute Particle Dispersion in a Karman Vortex Street Flow

It is shown that in a Karman vortex street flow, particle size influences the dilute particle dispersion. Together with an increase of the particle size, there is an emergence of a period-doubling bifurcation to a chaotic orbit, as well as a decrease of the corresponding basins of attraction. A crisis leads the attractor to escape from the central region of flow. In the motion of dilute particles, a drag term and gravity term dominate and result in a bifurcation phenomenon.

Effects Of Subgrid-Scale Modeling On Lagrangian Statistics In Large-Eddy Simulation

The application of large-eddy simulation (LES) to turbulent transport processes requires accurate prediction of the Lagrangian statistics of flow fields. However, in most existing SGS models, no explicit consideration is given to Lagrangian statistics. In this paper, we focus on the effects of SGS modeling on Lagrangian statistics in LES ranging from statistics determining single-particle dispersion to those of pair dispersion and multiparticle dispersion. Lagrangian statistics in homogeneous isotropic turbulence are extracted from direct numerical simulation (DNS) and the LES with a spectral eddy-viscosity model. For the case of longtime single-particle dispersion, it is shown that, compared to DNS, LES overpredicts the time scale of the Lagrangian velocity correlation but underpredicts the Lagrangian velocity fluctuation. These two effects tend to cancel one another leading to an accurate prediction of the longtime turbulent dispersion coefficient. Unlike the single-particle dispersion, LES tends to underestimate significantly the rate of relative dispersion of particle pairs and multiple-particles, when initial separation distances are less than the minimum resolved scale due to the lack of subgrid fluctuations. The overprediction of LES on the time scale of the Lagrangian velocity correlation is further confirmed by a theoretical analysis using a turbulence closure theory.

Review of river fisheries valuation in West and Central Africa

This paper provides a review of the valuation of river fisheries in West and Central Africa. It is the general perception that, compared to the biological and ecological aspects of river fisheries, this particular subject area has received relatively little attention. Economic valuation is concerned with finding expression for what is important in life for human society. It should, therefore, be a central and integral part of government decision-making and policy. The review started with concepts and methods for valuation. Three main types of valuation techniques were identified: conventional economic valuations, economic impact assessments and socioeconomic investigations, and livelihood analysis. On the basis of a literature review, valuation information was then synthesized for the major regional river basins and large lakes, and also used to develop a series of national fisheries profiles. To supplement this broad perspective, a series of case studies are also presented, which focus in particular on the impact of changes in water management regime. Finally, the paper presents an assessment of the three main types of valuation methodology and a set of conclusions and recommendations for future valuation studies.

Review of river fisheries valuation in Central and South America

Unlike Africa and Asia, where a large part of the population are heavily dependent upon fishing for their livelihoods, fishing for a living in the interior of Central and South America (CSA) remains a marginal occupation for all but the most isolated of families. As such, the economics and management of fisheries on the continent have received little attention from within the continent and the rest of the world. This study shows that while a number of studies have been carried out on fishing in the region, they tend to be limited in their geographical focus and time scale. Although fishing of freshwater species may appear to be comparatively insignificant in the region, the rivers of CSA are very important. This report attempts to analyze the literature available on CSA river fisheries and attempts to draw out an economic value of these fisheries. It is divided into a number of sections. First, the authors describe the major river basins on the continent, characterize their fisheries, and place freshwater fisheries in CSA into a global context. Second, the authors provide a review of valuation techniques for fisheries and use this analytical framework to review the principal literature on freshwater fisheries in the region. Then they turn their attention to the economic impact of dams and water abstraction schemes, reviewing the available literature to ascertain how/if economic values are computed for the impact on fisheries. Finally, they offer some conclusions and recommendations on the direction for future studies of freshwater fisheries in CSA.

Low streamflow in the Myakka River Basin Area in Florida

The Sarasota-Manatee area is a water-short area and the study was undertaken in 1963 in order to determine the storage capability and discharge rates of the Myakka water shed. It was found that many of the streams of the water shed were virtually dry during part of every year. However, the basins of the Myakka lakes, through which the river flows offer some storage potential, that if properly developed would provide a continuance drift of about seven million gallons of water per day of good quality water that would be high in color and temperature upon occasion. With reasonable treatment some of this water could be used to meet the present needs of the rapidly expanding coastal areas. (PDF contains 40 pages.)

Ichthyological ecoregions of Argentina

The Argentine Republic is situated in the southernmost portion of the American continent, occupying over 2,785,600 km2 not including the Antarctic territory. The country ranges from subtropical areas (21º46’S) to subantarctic regions (55º03’S), extending latitudinally over about 4,000 km. It possesses significant latitudinal and altitudinal variation (33º of latitudinal range, and heights from Bajo de San Julián in Santa Cruz province at 105 m below sea level, up to Mt. Aconcagua, 6,959 m over sea level), as well as two gradients of physical variability, extending in north-south and east-west directions. Owing to these features, the country presents a wide range of climates and soil types, being one of the countries with greatest diversity of biogeographical units (Lean et al., 1990, In: Bertonatti & Corcuera, 2000). There are four main hydrographic systems: Río de la Plata basin, the Atlantic and Pacific drainages, and several endorrheic systems. Within these basins, the ichthyofaunistic assemblage is well represented, with different magnitude in accordance with the different taxonomic groupings and regions considered. From an ichthyogeographic standpoint, and according to the works of Ringuelet (1975) and Arratia et al. (1983), Argentina is included in the Brasilic and Austral Subregions. The first of these is represented by two domains: the Andean Domain, comprising the southernmost portion of Titicaca Province, and the Paranensean Domain, including part of Alto Paraná and Paranoplatensean Provinces. The Austral Subregion is represented in Argentina by the Subandean-Cuyan and Patagonian Provinces. The present survey indicates that there are about 441 fish species in Argentina, distributed throughout the country; this number represents less than 10% of the total fish species occurring in the Neotropical Region. There is a recognizable trend of faunal impoverishment, both in North-South and East-West direction, reaching its maximum expression in the provinces of Tierra del Fuego (situated at approximately 52º30’S to 55ºS, and 65ºS to 68º50’W) and San Juan (approximately 28º50’S and 67ºW to 70º45’W), which have 4 and 5 fish species respectively. In north-south direction, one of the regional indicators of this phenomenon is the Salado river basin in Buenos Aires province, which constitutes the southern distributional boundary for the majority of the paranoplatensean ichthyofauna; 12 of the families occurring in the Paraná-Plata system are absent from this pauperized paranensean ichthyofaunal assemblage. Most of the continental fish fauna of Argentina belongs to the primary division of Myers (1949), while some elements are included in the secondary division and others in an amphibiotic or ‘marine penetration’ category. This ichthyofaunistic scope encompasses a wide range of morphological, biological, ecological and ethological types (benthic and pelagic, migrating and sedentary, haematophagous or parasites, annual species, inhabitants of plains or heights, estivation-adapted, etc.) inhabiting different regions within the national territory.