Nonparametric estimation of time-dependent ROC curves conditional on a continuous covariate

The receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve is the most widely used measure for evaluating the performance of a diagnostic biomarker when predicting a binary disease outcome. The ROC curve displays the true positive rate (or sensitivity) and the false positive rate (or 1-specificity) for different cut-off values used to classify an individual as healthy or diseased. In time-to-event studies, however, the disease status (e.g. death or alive) of an individual is not a fixed characteristic, and it varies along the study. In such cases, when evaluating the performance of the biomarker, several issues should be taken into account: first, the time-dependent nature of the disease status; and second, the presence of incomplete data (e.g. censored data typically present in survival studies). Accordingly, to assess the discrimination power of continuous biomarkers for time-dependent disease outcomes, time-dependent extensions of true positive rate, false positive rate, and ROC curve have been recently proposed. In this work, we present new nonparametric estimators of the cumulative/dynamic time-dependent ROC curve that allow accounting for the possible modifying effect of current or past covariate measures on the discriminatory power of the biomarker. The proposed estimators can accommodate right-censored data, as well as covariate-dependent censoring. The behavior of the estimators proposed in this study will be explored through simulations and illustrated using data from a cohort of patients who suffered from acute coronary syndrome.

Nonparametric estimation of the survival function for ordered multivariate failure time data: a comparative study

In longitudinal studies of disease, patients may experience several events through a follow-up period. In these studies, the sequentially ordered events are often of interest and lead to problems that have received much attention recently. Issues of interest include the estimation of bivariate survival, marginal distributions and the conditional distribution of gap times. In this work we consider the estimation of the survival function conditional to a previous event. Different nonparametric approaches will be considered for estimating these quantities, all based on the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survival function. We explore the finite sample behavior of the estimators through simulations. The different methods proposed in this article are applied to a data set from a German Breast Cancer Study. The methods are used to obtain predictors for the conditional survival probabilities as well as to study the influence of recurrence in overall survival.

A review of mycotoxins in food and feed products in Portugal and estimation of probable daily intakes

Mycotoxins are toxic secondary metabolites produced by filamentous fungi that occur naturally in agricultural commodities worldwide. Aflatoxins, ochratoxin A, patulin, fumonisins, zearalenone, trichothecenes and ergot alkaloids are presently the most important for food and feed safety. These compounds are produced by several species that belong to the Aspergillus, Penicillium, Fusarium and Claviceps genera and can be carcinogenic, mutagenic, teratogenic, cytotoxic, neurotoxic, nephrotoxic, estrogenic and immunosuppressant. Human and animal exposure to mycotoxins is generally assessed by taking into account data on the occurrence of mycotoxins in food and feed as well as data on the consumption patterns of the concerned population. This evaluation is crucial to support measures to reduce consumer exposure to mycotoxins. This work reviews the occurrence and levels of mycotoxins in Portuguese food and feed to provide a global overview of this issue in Portugal. With the information collected, the exposure of the Portuguese population to those mycotoxins is assessed, and the estimated dietary intakes are presented.

Promising blood-derived biomarkers for estimation of the postmortem interval

A precise estimation of the postmortem interval (PMI) is one of the most important topics in forensic pathology. However, the PMI estimation is based mainly on the visual observation of cadaverous pheno- mena (e.g. algor, livor and rigor mortis) and on alternative methods such as thanatochemistry that remain relatively imprecise. The aim of this in vitro study was to evaluate the kinetic alterations of several bio- chemical parameters (i.e. proteins, enzymes, substrates, electrolytes and lipids) during putrefaction of human blood. For this purpose, we performed kinetic biochemical analysis during a 264 hour period. The results showed a significant linear correlation between total and direct bilirubin, urea, uric acid, transferrin, immunoglobulin M (IgM), creatine kinase (CK), aspartate transaminase (AST), calcium and iron with the time of blood putrefaction. These parameters allowed us to develop two mathematical models that may have predictive values and become important complementary tools of traditional methods to achieve a more accurate PMI estimation

Highly robust hydrogels via a fast, simple and cytocompatible dual crosslinking-based process

A highly robust hydrogel device made from a single biopolymer formulation is reported. Owing to the presence of covalent and non-covalent crosslinks, these engineered systems were able to (i) sustain a compressive strength of ca. 20 MPa, (ii) quickly recover upon unloading, and (iii) encapsulate cells with high viability rates.

Highly robust chitosan hydrogels via a fast, simple and biocompatible dual crosslinking-based process

Load-bearing soft tissues such as cartilage, blood vessels and muscles are able to withstand a remarkable compressive stress of several MPa without fracturing. Interestingly, most of these structural tissues are mainly composed of water and in this regard, hydrogels, as highly hydrated 3D-crosslinked polymeric networks, constitute a promising class of materials to repair lesions on these tissues. Although several approaches can be employed to shape the mechanical properties of artificial hydrogels to mimic the ones found on biotissues, critical issues regarding, for instance, their biocompatibility and recoverability after loading are often neglected. Therefore, an innovative hydrogel device made only of chitosan (CHI) was developed for the repair of robust biological tissues. These systems were fabricated through a dual-crosslinking process, comprising a photo- and an ionic-crosslinking step. The obtained CHIbased hydrogels exhibited an outstanding compressive strength of ca. 20 MPa at 95% of strain, which is several orders of magnitude higher than those of the individual components and close to the ones found in native soft tissues. Additionally, both crosslinking processes occur rapidly and under physiological conditions, enabling cellsâ encapsulation as confirmed by high cell survival rates (ca. 80%). Furthermore, in contrast with conventional hydrogels, these networks quickly recover upon unloading and are able to keep their mechanical properties under physiological conditions as result of their non-swell nature.

Aortic stenosis. Gender influence on left ventricular geometry and function in patients under 70 years of age

OBJECTIVE: To verify if adaptive left ventricle (LV) characteristics are also present in individuals under 70 years of age with severe aortic stenosis (AS). METHODS: The study comprised 40 consecutive patients under 70 years of age with AS and no associated coronary artery disease, referred for valve surgery. Out of the 40 patients, 22 were men and 18 women, and the mean age was 49.8±14.3 years. Cardiac symptoms, presence of systemic hypertension (SH), functional class according to the New York Heart Association (NYHA), and valve lesion etiology were considered. LV cavity dimensions, ejection fraction (EF), fractional shortening (FS), mass (MS), and relative diastolic thickness (RDT) were examined by Doppler echocardiography. RESULTS: Fourteen (63.6%) men and 11 (61.6%) women were classified as NYHA class III/IV (p=0.70). There was no difference in the frequency of angina, syncope or dyspnea between genders. The incidence of SH was greater in women than in men (10 versus 2, p=0.0044). Women had a smaller LV end-diastolic diameter index (32.1±6.5 x 36.5±5.3mm/m², p=0.027), LV end-systolic diameter index (19.9±5.9 x 26.5±6.4mm/m², p=0.0022) and LV mass index (MS) (211.4±71.1 x 270.9±74.9g/m², p=0.017) when compared with men. EF (66.2±13.4 x 52.0±14.6%, p=0.0032), FS (37.6±10.7 x 27.9±9.6%, p=0.0046) and RDT (0.58±0.22 x 0.44±0.09, p=0.0095) were significantly greater in women than in men. CONCLUSION: It is the patient gender rather than age that influences left ventricular adaptive response to AS.

Estimation of statistical cure from cancer using population-based data

Dissertação de mestrado em Estatística

Left Ventricular Diastolic Function in Essential Hypertensive Patients: Influence of Age and Left Ventricular Geometry

PURPOSE - To evaluate diastolic dysfunction (DD) in essential hypertension and the influence of age and cardiac geometry on this parameter. METHODS - Four hundred sixty essential hypertensive patients (HT) underwent Doppler echocardiography to obtain E/A wave ratio (E/A), atrial deceleration time (ADT), and isovolumetric relaxation time (IRT). All patients were grouped according to cardiac geometric patterns (NG - normal geometry; CR - concentric remodeling; CH- concentric hypertrophy; EH - eccentric hypertrophy) and to age (<40; 40 - 60; >60 years). One hundred six normotensives (NT) persons were also evaluated. RESULTS - A worsening of diastolic function in the HT compared with the NT, including HT with NG (E/A: NT - 1.38±0.03 vs HT - 1.27±0.02, p<0.01), was observed. A higher prevalence of DD occurred parallel to age and cardiac geometry also in the prehypertrophic groups (CR). Multiple regression analysis identified age as the most important predictor of DD (r²=0.30, p<0.01). CONCLUSION - DD was prevalent in this hypertensive population, being highly affected by age and less by heart structural parameters. DD is observed in incipient stages of hypertensive heart disease, and thus its early detection may help in the risk stratification of hypertensive patients.

Relationship between estimation and real motor performance in school-age children

The relationship between estimated and real motor competences was analyzed for several tasks. Participants were 303 children (160 boys and 143 girls), which had between 6 and 10 years of age (M=8.63, SD=1.16). None of the children presented developmental difficulties or learning disabilities, and all attended age-appropriate classes. Children were divided into three groups according to their age: group 1 (N= 102; age range: 6.48-8.01 years); group 2 (N= 101; age range: 8.02-9.22 years); and group 3 (N=100; age range: 9.24-10.93 years). Children were asked to predict their maximum distance for a locomotor, a manipulative, and a balance task, prior to performing those tasks. Children’s estimations were compared with their real performance to determine their accuracy. Children had, in general, a tendency to overestimate their performance (standing long jump: 56.11%, kicking: 63.37%, throwing: 73.60%, and Walking Backwards (WB) on a balance beam: 45.21%), and older children tended to be more accurate, except for the manipulative tasks. Furthermore, the relationship between estimation and real performance in children with different levels of motor coordination (Köperkoordinationstest für Kinder, KTK) was analyzed. The 75 children with the highest score comprised the Highest Motor Coordination (HMC) group, and the 78 children with the lowest score were placed in the Lowest Motor Coordination (LMC) group. There was a tendency for LMC and HMC children to overestimate their skills at all tasks, except for the HMC group at the WB task. Children with the HMC level tended to be more accurate when predicting their motor performance; however, differences in absolute percent error were only significant for the throwing and WB tasks. In conclusion, children display a tendency to overestimate their performance independently of their motor coordination level and task. This fact may be determinant to the development of their motor competences, since they are more likely to engage and persist in motor tasks, but it might also increase the occurrence of unintended injuries.

Convex and toric geometry to analyze complex dynamics in chemical reaction systems

Convex cone, toric variety, graph theory, electrochemical catalysis, oxidation of formic acid, feedback-loopsbifurcations, enzymatic catalysis, Peroxidase reaction, Shil'nikov chaos

Estimation of nonparametric probability density functions with applications to automatic speech recognition

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Elektrotechnik und Informationstechnik, Diss., 2007

Robust acoustic and semantic modeling in a telephone-based spoken dialog system

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Elektrotechnik und Informationstechnik, Diss., 2009

Robust learning in safety-related domains : machine learning methods for solving safety-related application problems

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Informatik, Diss., 2009

Ricci-flat complex geometry and its applications

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Habil.-Schr., 2010