Dissecting the illegal ivory trade: an analysis of ivory seizures data

Reliable evidence of trends in the illegal ivory trade is important for informing decision making for elephants but it is difficult to obtain due to the covert nature of the trade. The Elephant Trade Information System, a global database of reported seizures of illegal ivory, holds the only extensive information on illicit trade available. However inherent biases in seizure data make it difficult to infer trends; countries differ in their ability to make and report seizures and these differences cannot be directly measured. We developed a new modelling framework to provide quantitative evidence on trends in the illegal ivory trade from seizures data. The framework used Bayesian hierarchical latent variable models to reduce bias in seizures data by identifying proxy variables that describe the variability in seizure and reporting rates between countries and over time. Models produced bias-adjusted smoothed estimates of relative trends in illegal ivory activity for raw and worked ivory in three weight classes. Activity is represented by two indicators describing the number of illegal ivory transactions--Transactions Index--and the total weight of illegal ivory transactions--Weights Index--at global, regional or national levels. Globally, activity was found to be rapidly increasing and at its highest level for 16 years, more than doubling from 2007 to 2011 and tripling from 1998 to 2011. Over 70% of the Transactions Index is from shipments of worked ivory weighing less than 10 kg and the rapid increase since 2007 is mainly due to increased consumption in China. Over 70% of the Weights Index is from shipments of raw ivory weighing at least 100 kg mainly moving from Central and East Africa to Southeast and East Asia. The results tie together recent findings on trends in poaching rates, declining populations and consumption and provide detailed evidence to inform international decision making on elephants.

N1 enhancement in synesthesia during visual and audio-visual perception in semantic cross-modal conflict situations: an ERP study

Synesthesia entails a special kind of sensory perception, where stimulation in one sensory modality leads to an internally generated perceptual experience of another, not stimulated sensory modality. This phenomenon can be viewed as an abnormal multisensory integration process as here the synesthetic percept is aberrantly fused with the stimulated modality. Indeed, recent synesthesia research has focused on multimodal processing even outside of the specific synesthesia-inducing context and has revealed changed multimodal integration, thus suggesting perceptual alterations at a global level. Here, we focused on audio-visual processing in synesthesia using a semantic classification task in combination with visually or auditory-visually presented animated and in animated objects in an audio-visual congruent and incongruent manner. Fourteen subjects with auditory-visual and/or grapheme-color synesthesia and 14 control subjects participated in the experiment. During presentation of the stimuli, event-related potentials were recorded from 32 electrodes. The analysis of reaction times and error rates revealed no group differences with best performance for audio-visually congruent stimulation indicating the well-known multimodal facilitation effect. We found enhanced amplitude of the N1 component over occipital electrode sites for synesthetes compared to controls. The differences occurred irrespective of the experimental condition and therefore suggest a global influence on early sensory processing in synesthetes.

Determinants of biosecurity behaviour of British cattle and sheep farmers: a behavioural economics analysis

The paper analyses the impact of a priori determinants of biosecurity behaviour of farmers in Great Britain. We use a dataset collected through a stratified telephone survey of 900 cattle and sheep farmers in Great Britain (400 in England and a further 250 in Wales and Scotland respectively) which took place between 25 March 2010 and 18 June 2010. The survey was stratified by farm type, farm size and region. To test the influence of a priori determinants on biosecurity behaviour we used a behavioural economics method, structural equation modelling (SEM) with observed and latent variables. SEM is a statistical technique for testing and estimating causal relationships amongst variables, some of which may be latent using a combination of statistical data and qualitative causal assumptions. Thirteen latent variables were identified and extracted, expressing the behaviour and the underlying determining factors. The variables were: experience, economic factors, organic certification of farm, membership in a cattle/sheep health scheme, perceived usefulness of biosecurity information sources, knowledge about biosecurity measures, perceived importance of specific biosecurity strategies, perceived effect (on farm business in the past five years) of welfare/health regulation, perceived effect of severe outbreaks of animal diseases, attitudes towards livestock biosecurity, attitudes towards animal welfare, influence on decision to apply biosecurity measures and biosecurity behaviour. The SEM model applied on the Great Britain sample has an adequate fit according to the measures of absolute, incremental and parsimonious fit. The results suggest that farmers’ perceived importance of specific biosecurity strategies, organic certification of farm, knowledge about biosecurity measures, attitudes towards animal welfare, perceived usefulness of biosecurity information sources, perceived effect on business during the past five years of severe outbreaks of animal diseases, membership in a cattle/sheep health scheme, attitudes towards livestock biosecurity, influence on decision to apply biosecurity measures, experience and economic factors are significantly influencing behaviour (overall explaining 64% of the variance in behaviour).

Tensor regression based on linked multiway parameter analysis

Classical regression methods take vectors as covariates and estimate the corresponding vectors of regression parameters. When addressing regression problems on covariates of more complex form such as multi-dimensional arrays (i.e. tensors), traditional computational models can be severely compromised by ultrahigh dimensionality as well as complex structure. By exploiting the special structure of tensor covariates, the tensor regression model provides a promising solution to reduce the model’s dimensionality to a manageable level, thus leading to efficient estimation. Most of the existing tensor-based methods independently estimate each individual regression problem based on tensor decomposition which allows the simultaneous projections of an input tensor to more than one direction along each mode. As a matter of fact, multi-dimensional data are collected under the same or very similar conditions, so that data share some common latent components but can also have their own independent parameters for each regression task. Therefore, it is beneficial to analyse regression parameters among all the regressions in a linked way. In this paper, we propose a tensor regression model based on Tucker Decomposition, which identifies not only the common components of parameters across all the regression tasks, but also independent factors contributing to each particular regression task simultaneously. Under this paradigm, the number of independent parameters along each mode is constrained by a sparsity-preserving regulariser. Linked multiway parameter analysis and sparsity modeling further reduce the total number of parameters, with lower memory cost than their tensor-based counterparts. The effectiveness of the new method is demonstrated on real data sets.

A Bayesian Analysis in the Presence of Covariates for Multivariate Survival Data: An example of Application

In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian analysis for survival multivariate data in the presence of a covariate vector and censored observations. Different ""frailties"" or latent variables are considered to capture the correlation among the survival times for the same individual. We assume Weibull or generalized Gamma distributions considering right censored lifetime data. We develop the Bayesian analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.

Bayesian analysis of skew-t multivariate null intercept measurement error model

The multivariate skew-t distribution (J Multivar Anal 79:93-113, 2001; J R Stat Soc, Ser B 65:367-389, 2003; Statistics 37:359-363, 2003) includes the Student t, skew-Cauchy and Cauchy distributions as special cases and the normal and skew-normal ones as limiting cases. In this paper, we explore the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to develop a Bayesian analysis of repeated measures, pretest/post-test data, under multivariate null intercept measurement error model (J Biopharm Stat 13(4):763-771, 2003) where the random errors and the unobserved value of the covariate (latent variable) follows a Student t and skew-t distribution, respectively. The results and methods are numerically illustrated with an example in the field of dentistry.

Bayesian analysis for a skew extension of the multivariate null intercept measurement error model

Skew-normal distribution is a class of distributions that includes the normal distributions as a special case. In this paper, we explore the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to develop a Bayesian analysis in a multivariate, null intercept, measurement error model [R. Aoki, H. Bolfarine, J.A. Achcar, and D. Leao Pinto Jr, Bayesian analysis of a multivariate null intercept error-in -variables regression model, J. Biopharm. Stat. 13(4) (2003b), pp. 763-771] where the unobserved value of the covariate (latent variable) follows a skew-normal distribution. The results and methods are applied to a real dental clinical trial presented in [A. Hadgu and G. Koch, Application of generalized estimating equations to a dental randomized clinical trial, J. Biopharm. Stat. 9 (1999), pp. 161-178].

An extinction-survival-type phase transition in the probabilistic cellular automaton p182-q200

We investigate the critical behaviour of a probabilistic mixture of cellular automata (CA) rules 182 and 200 (in Wolfram`s enumeration scheme) by mean-field analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. We found that as we switch off one CA and switch on the other by the variation of the single parameter of the model, the probabilistic CA (PCA) goes through an extinction-survival-type phase transition, and the numerical data indicate that it belongs to the directed percolation universality class of critical behaviour. The PCA displays a characteristic stationary density profile and a slow, diffusive dynamics close to the pure CA 200 point that we discuss briefly. Remarks on an interesting related stochastic lattice gas are addressed in the conclusions.

Performance of balanced two-stage empirical predictors of realized cluster latent values from finite populations: A simulation study

Predictors of random effects are usually based on the popular mixed effects (ME) model developed under the assumption that the sample is obtained from a conceptual infinite population; such predictors are employed even when the actual population is finite. Two alternatives that incorporate the finite nature of the population are obtained from the superpopulation model proposed by Scott and Smith (1969. Estimation in multi-stage surveys. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 64, 830-840) or from the finite population mixed model recently proposed by Stanek and Singer (2004. Predicting random effects from finite population clustered samples with response error. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 99, 1119-1130). Predictors derived under the latter model with the additional assumptions that all variance components are known and that within-cluster variances are equal have smaller mean squared error (MSE) than the competitors based on either the ME or Scott and Smith`s models. As population variances are rarely known, we propose method of moment estimators to obtain empirical predictors and conduct a simulation study to evaluate their performance. The results suggest that the finite population mixed model empirical predictor is more stable than its competitors since, in terms of MSE, it is either the best or the second best and when second best, its performance lies within acceptable limits. When both cluster and unit intra-class correlation coefficients are very high (e.g., 0.95 or more), the performance of the empirical predictors derived under the three models is similar. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Graph analysis of verbal fluency test discriminate between patients with Alzheimer’s disease, Mild Cognitive Impairment and normal elderly controls

Verbal fluency is the ability to produce a satisfying sequence of spoken words during a given time interval. The core of verbal fluency lies in the capacity to manage the executive aspects of language. The standard scores of the semantic verbal fluency test are broadly used in the neuropsychological assessment of the elderly, and different analytical methods are likely to extract even more information from the data generated in this test. Graph theory, a mathematical approach to analyze relations between items, represents a promising tool to understand a variety of neuropsychological states. This study reports a graph analysis of data generated by the semantic verbal fluency test by cognitively healthy elderly (NC), patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment – subtypes amnestic(aMCI) and amnestic multiple domain (a+mdMCI) - and patients with Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Sequences of words were represented as a speech graph in which every word corresponded to a node and temporal links between words were represented by directed edges. To characterize the structure of the data we calculated 13 speech graph attributes (SGAs). The individuals were compared when divided in three (NC – MCI – AD) and four (NC – aMCI – a+mdMCI – AD) groups. When the three groups were compared, significant differences were found in the standard measure of correct words produced, and three SGA: diameter, average shortest path, and network density. SGA sorted the elderly groups with good specificity and sensitivity. When the four groups were compared, the groups differed significantly in network density, except between the two MCI subtypes and NC and aMCI. The diameter of the network and the average shortest path were significantly different between the NC and AD, and between aMCI and AD. SGA sorted the elderly in their groups with good specificity and sensitivity, performing better than the standard score of the task. These findings provide support for a new methodological frame to assess the strength of semantic memory through the verbal fluency task, with potential to amplify the predictive power of this test. Graph analysis is likely to become clinically relevant in neurology and psychiatry, and may be particularly useful for the differential diagnosis of the elderly.

Analysis of the Priestley-Taylor alpha parameter for a bean crop

This work deals with the Priestley-Taylor model for evapotranspiration in different grown stages of a bean crop. Priestley and Taylor derived a practical Formulation for energy partitioning between the sensible and latent heat fluxes through the a parameter. Bowen ratio energy balance (BREB) was carried out for daily sensible and latent heat flux estimations in three different crop stages. Mean daily values of Priestley-Taylor a parameter were determined for eleven days during the crop cycle. Diurnal variation patterns of a are presented for the growing, flowering and graining periods. The mean values of 1.13 +/- 0.33, 1.26 +/- 0.74, 1.22 +/- 0.55 were obtained for a day in the growing, in the flowering and for graining periods, respectively. Eleven days values of a are shown and gave a mean value of 1.23 +/- 0.10 which agree on the reported literature.

The Poisson-exponential regression model under different latent activation schemes

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Identification of lubricant contamination by biodiesel using vibration analysis and neural network

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to provide information on lubricant contamination by biodiesel using vibration and neural network.Design/methodology/approach - The possible contamination of lubricants is verified by analyzing the vibration and neural network of a bench test under determinated conditions.Findings - Results have shown that classical signal analysis methods could not reveal any correlation between the signal and the presence of contamination, or contamination grade. on other hand, the use of probabilistic neural network (PNN) was very successful in the identification and classification of contamination and its grade.Research limitations/implications - This study was done for some specific kinds of biodiesel. Other types of biodiesel could be analyzed.Practical implications Contamination information is presented in the vibration signal, even if it is not evident by classical vibration analysis. In addition, the use of PNN gives a relatively simple and easy-to-use detection tool with good confidence. The training process is fast, and allows implementation of an adaptive training algorithm.Originality/value - This research could be extended to an internal combustion engine in order to verify a possible contamination by biodiesel.

Dental caries and the nutritional status of preschool children: a spatial analysis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)