Charcot foot: Skin temperature as a good clinical parameter for predicting disease outcome

Twenty-eight diabetics presenting with acute Charcot foot were immobilized and the temperature difference between limbs measured at each month. All patients had monthly follow-up visits for a year and the relapse rate was zero. We found that skin temperature is a good parameter to ensure safe immobilization withdrawal. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting pH at birth in pregnancies with abnormal pulsatility index and positive end-diastolic velocity in the umbilical artery

Objectives: To identify potential associations between fetal surveillance tests and acidosis at birth in pregnancies with abnormal but positive end-diastolic velocity in the umbilical artery. Methods: A prospective case-control study [group 1: pH < 7.2; group 2: pH >= 7.2] including 46 fetuses with abnormal but positive end-diastolic velocity in the umbilical artery was conducted between February 2007 and March 2009. Outcome variables were evaluated by univariate analysis and compared between the two groups. Clinically relevant and statistically significant variables were analyzed by logistic regression. Results: Abnormal nonstress test, presence of deceleration, and absent fetal breathing movements were statistically significant. Logistic regression analysis revealed that fetal heart rate (FHR) deceleration in the nonstress test is the only predictor of fetal acidosis at birth (p = 0.024; OR = 8.2; 95% CI: 1.2-52). Conclusions: In fetuses with positive end-diastolic flow velocity, acute variables of the antenatal surveillance tests are correlated with acidosis at birth and FHR deceleration in the nonstress test is the only predictor of fetal acidosis.

Predicting Growth of Panicum maximum: An Adaptation of the CROPGRO-Perennial Forage Model

Warm-season grasses are economically important for cattle production in tropical regions and tools to aid in management and research on these forages would be highly beneficial both in research and the industry. This research was conducted to adapt the CROPGRO-Perennial Forage model to simulate growth of the tropical species guineagrass (Panicum maximum Jacq. cv. 'Tanzania') and to describe model adaptation for this species. To develop the CROPGRO parameters for this species, we began with values and relationships reported in the literature. Some parameters and relationships were calibrated by comparison with observed growth, development, dry matter accumulation, and partitioning during a 17-mo experiment with Tanzania guineagrass in Piracicaba, SP, Brazil. Compared with starting parameters for palisadegrass [Brachiaria brizantha (A. Rich.) Stapf. cv. 'Xaraes'], dormancy effects of the perennial forage model had to be minimized, partitioning to storage tissue or root decreased, and partitioning to leaf and stem increased to provide for more leaf and stem growth and less root. Parameters affecting specific leaf area and senescence of plant tissues were improved. After these changes were made to the model, biomass accumulation was better simulated, mean predicted herbage yield was 6576 kg ha(-1), averaged across 11 regrowth cycles of 35 (summer) or 63 d (winter), with a RMSE of 494 kg ha(-1) (Willmott's index of agreement d = 0.985, simulated/observed ratio = 1.014). The model also gave good predictions against an independent data set, with similar RMSE, ratio, and d. The results of the adaptation suggest that the CROPGRO model is an efficient tool to integrate physiological aspects of guineagrass and can be used to simulate growth.

Predicting Delta Ferrite Content in Stainless Steel Castings

The distribution of delta ferrite fraction was measured with the magnetic method in specimens of different stainless steel compositions cast by the investment casting (lost wax) process. Ferrite fraction measurements published in the literature for stainless steel cast samples were added to the present work data, enabling an extensive analysis about practical methods to calculate delta ferrite fractions in stainless steel castings. Nineteen different versions of practical methods were formed using Schaeffler, DeLong, and Siewert diagrams and the nickel and chromium equivalent indexes suggested by several authors. These methods were evaluated by a detailed statistical analysis, showing that the Siewert diagram, including its equivalent indexes and iso-ferrite lines, gives the lowest relative errors between calculated and measured delta ferrite fractions. Although originally created for stainless steel welds, this diagram gives relative errors lower than those for the current ASTM standard method (800/A 800M-01), developed to predict ferrite fractions in stainless steel castings. Practical methods originated from a combination of different chromium/nickel equivalent indexes and the iso-ferrite lines from Schaeffler diagram give the lowest relative errors when compared with combinations using other iso-ferrite line diagrams. For the samples cast in the present work, an increase in cooling rate from 0.78 to 2.7 K/s caused a decrease in the delta ferrite fraction, but a statistical hypothesis test revealed that this effect is significant in only 50% of the samples that have ferrite in their microstructures.

Predicting necrosis in residual mass analysis after retroperitoneal lymph node dissection: a retrospective study

Background: Recent studies have demonstrated that pathological analysis of retroperitoneal residual masses of patients with testicular germ cell tumors revealed findings of necrotic debris or fibrosis in up to 50% of patients. We aimed at pursuing a clinical and pathological review of patients undergoing post chemotherapy retroperitoneal lymph node dissection (PC-RPLND) in order to identify variables that may help predict necrosis in the retroperitoneum. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of all patients who underwent PC-RPLND at the University Hospital of the University of Sao Paulo and Cancer Institute of Sao Paulo between January 2005 and September 2011. Clinical and pathological data were obtained and consisted basically of: measures of retroperitoneal masses, histology of the orchiectomy specimen, serum tumor marker and retroperitoneal nodal size before and after chemotherapy. Results: We gathered a total of 32 patients with a mean age of 29.7; pathological analysis in our series demonstrated that 15 (47%) had necrosis in residual retroperitoneal masses, 15 had teratoma (47%) and 2 (6.4%) had viable germ cell tumors (GCT). The mean size of the retroperitoneal mass was 4.94 cm in our sample, without a difference between the groups (P = 0.176). From all studied variables, relative changes in retroperitoneal lymph node size (P = 0.04), the absence of teratoma in the orchiectomy specimen (P = 0.03) and the presence of choriocarcinoma in the testicular analysis after orchiectomy (P = 0.03) were statistically significant predictors of the presence of necrosis. A reduction level of 35% was therefore suggested to be the best cutoff for predicting the absence of tumor in the retroperitoneum with a sensitivity of 73.3% and specificity of 82.4%. Conclusions: Even though retroperitoneal lymph node dissection remains the gold standard for patients with residual masses, those without teratoma in the primary tumor and a shrinkage of 35% or more in retroperitoneal mass have a considerably smaller chance of having viable GCT or teratoma in the retroperitoneum and a surveillance program could be considered.

Evaluation of Viral Load Thresholds for Predicting New World Health Organization Stage 3 and 4 Events in HIV-Infected Children Receiving Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy

Background: This study evaluated a wide range of viral load (VL) thresholds to identify a cut-point that best predicts new clinical events in children on stable highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Methods: Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to assess the adjusted risk for World Health Organization stage 3 or 4 clinical events (WHO events) as a function of time-varying CD4, VL, and hemoglobin values in a cohort study of Latin American children on HAART >= 6 months. Models were fit using different VL cut-points between 400 and 50,000 copies per milliliter, with model fit evaluated on the basis of the minimum Akaike information criterion value, a standard model fit statistic. Results: Models were based on 67 subjects with WHO events out of 550 subjects on study. The VL cut-points of >2600 and >32,000 copies per milliliter corresponded to the lowest Akaike information criterion values and were associated with the highest hazard ratios (2.0, P = 0.015; and 2.1, P = 0.0058, respectively) for WHO events. Conclusions: In HIV-infected Latin American children on stable HAART, 2 distinct VL thresholds (>2600 and >32,000 copies/mL) were identified for predicting children at significantly increased risk for HIV-related clinical illness, after accounting for CD4 level, hemoglobin level, and other significant factors.

Predicting smear negative pulmonary tuberculosis with classification trees and logistic regression: a cross-sectional study

Abstract Background Smear negative pulmonary tuberculosis (SNPT) accounts for 30% of pulmonary tuberculosis cases reported yearly in Brazil. This study aimed to develop a prediction model for SNPT for outpatients in areas with scarce resources. Methods The study enrolled 551 patients with clinical-radiological suspicion of SNPT, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The original data was divided into two equivalent samples for generation and validation of the prediction models. Symptoms, physical signs and chest X-rays were used for constructing logistic regression and classification and regression tree models. From the logistic regression, we generated a clinical and radiological prediction score. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, sensitivity, and specificity were used to evaluate the model's performance in both generation and validation samples. Results It was possible to generate predictive models for SNPT with sensitivity ranging from 64% to 71% and specificity ranging from 58% to 76%. Conclusion The results suggest that those models might be useful as screening tools for estimating the risk of SNPT, optimizing the utilization of more expensive tests, and avoiding costs of unnecessary anti-tuberculosis treatment. Those models might be cost-effective tools in a health care network with hierarchical distribution of scarce resources.

Predicting the connectivity of primate cortical networks from topological and spatial node properties

Abstract Background The organization of the connectivity between mammalian cortical areas has become a major subject of study, because of its important role in scaffolding the macroscopic aspects of animal behavior and intelligence. In this study we present a computational reconstruction approach to the problem of network organization, by considering the topological and spatial features of each area in the primate cerebral cortex as subsidy for the reconstruction of the global cortical network connectivity. Starting with all areas being disconnected, pairs of areas with similar sets of features are linked together, in an attempt to recover the original network structure. Results Inferring primate cortical connectivity from the properties of the nodes, remarkably good reconstructions of the global network organization could be obtained, with the topological features allowing slightly superior accuracy to the spatial ones. Analogous reconstruction attempts for the C. elegans neuronal network resulted in substantially poorer recovery, indicating that cortical area interconnections are relatively stronger related to the considered topological and spatial properties than neuronal projections in the nematode. Conclusion The close relationship between area-based features and global connectivity may hint on developmental rules and constraints for cortical networks. Particularly, differences between the predictions from topological and spatial properties, together with the poorer recovery resulting from spatial properties, indicate that the organization of cortical networks is not entirely determined by spatial constraints.

MMP-7 and TIMP-1, news targets in predicting poor wound healing in apical periodontitis

Introduction: Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and the tissue inhibitors of metalloproteinases (TIMPs) are strongly associated with tissue destruction because of inflammation. In this study, we investigated the expression of MMPs and TIMPs messenger RNA and protein levels in apical periodontitis lesions. Methods: Tissue samples from patients presenting clinical signs of chronic apical abscess (CAA) or asymptomatic apical periodontitis (AAP) were collected postoperatively and used for gene expression analysis of MMP-2, -3, -7, -9, -14, -16, and -25; TIMP-1; and TIMP-2 in real-time polymerase chain reaction. Immunohistochemistry was also performed to detect the expression of MMP-7 and TIMP-1 proteins. Lastly, U-937 cells were induced to terminal differentiation into macrophages, infected with purified Escherichia coli lipopolysaccharide, and assessed for the expression of MMP-7 and TIMP-1 using immunocytochemistry and confocal microscopy. Results: Significantly higher messenger RNA levels were found for all genes in AAP and CAA samples when compared with healthy control samples (P < .001). AAP cases exhibited significantly higher TIMP-1 when compared with CAA cases, whereas CAA cases showed higher MMP-2, MMP-7, and MMP-9 messenger RNA levels (P < .05). We also detected positive the expression of MMP-7 and TIMP-1 proteins in the tissue samples. The expression of both MMP-7 and TIMP-1 were increased in lipopolysaccharide-stimulated cells compared with nonstimulated cells and appear to colocalize in the Golgi apparatus. Conclusions: MMPs appear to have an influential role in CAA cases in which ongoing tissue destruction is observed. TIMPs are preferentially associated with AAP, perhaps as a subsequent defense mechanism against excessive destruction. Taken together, our findings implicate MMP and TIMP molecules in the dynamics of inflammatory periapical lesion development

Validation of models for predicting milk urea nitrogen concentrations, estimating dry matter intake by the NRC (2001)

The objective of this study was to validate three different models for predicting milk urea nitrogen using field conditions, attempting to evaluate the nutritional adequacy diets for dairy cows and prediction of nitrogen excreted to the environment. Observations (4,749) from 855 cows were used. Milk yield, body weight (BW), days in milk and parity were recorded on the milk sampling days. Milk was sampled monthly, for analysis of milk urea nitrogen (MUN), fat, protein, lactose and total solids concentration and somatic cells count. Individual dry matter intake was estimated using the NRC (2001). The three models studied were derived from a first one to predict urinary nitrogen (UN). Model 1 was MUN = UN/12.54, model 2 was MUN = UN/17.6 and model 3 was MUN = UN/(0.0259 × BW), adjusted by body weight effect. To evaluate models, they were tested for accuracy, precision and robustness. Despite being more accurate (mean bias = 0.94 mg/dL), model 2 was less precise (residual error = 4.50 mg/dL) than model 3 (mean bias = 1.41 and residual error = 4.11 mg/dL), while model 1 was the least accurate (mean bias = 6.94 mg/dL) and the least precise (residual error = 5.40 mg/dL). They were not robust, because they were influenced by almost all the variables studied. The three models for predicting milk urea nitrogen were different with respect to accuracy, precision and robustness.

Supramolecular hybrid organic-inorganic multicomponent architectures in solution and on surface

Supramolecular architectures can be built-up from a single molecular component (building block) to obtain a complex of organic or inorganic interactions creating a new emergent condensed phase of matter, such as gels, liquid crystals and solid crystal. Further the generation of multicomponent supramolecular hybrid architecture, a mix of organic and inorganic components, increases the complexity of the condensed aggregate with functional properties useful for important areas of research, like material science, medicine and nanotechnology. One may design a molecule storing a recognition pattern and programming a informed self-organization process enables to grow-up into a hierarchical architecture. From a molecular level to a supramolecular level, in a bottom-up fashion, it is possible to create a new emergent structure-function, where the system, as a whole, is open to its own environment to exchange energy, matter and information. “The emergent property of the whole assembly is superior to the sum of a singles parts”. In this thesis I present new architectures and functional materials built through the selfassembly of guanosine, in the absence or in the presence of a cation, in solution and on the surface. By appropriate manipulation of intermolecular non-covalent interactions the spatial (structural) and temporal (dynamic) features of these supramolecular architectures are controlled. Guanosine G7 (5',3'-di-decanoil-deoxi-guanosine) is able to interconvert reversibly between a supramolecular polymer and a discrete octameric species by dynamic cation binding and release. Guanosine G16 (2',3'-O-Isopropylidene-5'-O-decylguanosine) shows selectivity binding from a mix of different cation's nature. Remarkably, reversibility, selectivity, adaptability and serendipity are mutual features to appreciate the creativity of a molecular self-organization complex system into a multilevelscale hierarchical growth. The creativity - in general sense, the creation of a new thing, a new thinking, a new functionality or a new structure - emerges from a contamination process of different disciplines such as biology, chemistry, physics, architecture, design, philosophy and science of complexity.

Factors predicting mortality after tips for refractory ascites: a single center experience

Introduction: Transjugular intrahepatic porto-systemic shunt (TIPS) is an accepted indication for treating refractory ascites. Different models have been proposed for the prediction of survival after TIPS; aim of present study was to evaluate the factors associated with mortality after TIPS for refractory ascites. Methods: Seventy-three consecutive patients undergoing a TIPS for refractory ascites in our centre between 2003 and 2008, were prospectively recorded in a database ad were the subject of the study. Mean follow-up was 17±2 months. Forty patients were awaiting liver transplantation (LT) and 12 (16.4%) underwent LT during follow-up. Results: Mean MELD at the moment of TIPS was 15.7±5.3. Overall mortality was 23.3% (n=17) with a mean survival after TIPS of 17±14 months. MELD score (B=0.161, p=0.042), AST (B= 0.020, p=0.090) and pre-TIPS HVPG (B=0.016, p=0.093) were independent predictors of overall mortality. On multivariate analysis MELD (B=0.419, p=0.018) and pre-TIPS HVPG (B=0.223, p=0.060) independently predicted 1 year survival. Patients were stratified into categories of death risk, using ROC curves for the variables MELD and HVPG. Patients with MELD<10 had a low probability of death after TIPS (n=6, 16% mortality); patients with HVPG <16 mmHg (n=6) had no mortality. Maximum risk of death was found in patients with MELD score 19 (n=16, 31% mortality) and in those with HVPG 25 mmHg (n=27, 26% mortality). Conclusions: TIPS increases overall survival in patients with refractory ascites. Liver function (assessed by MELD), necroinflammation (AST) and portal hypertension (HVPG) are independent predictors of survival; patients with MELD>19 and HVPG>25 mmHg are at highest risk of death after TIPS