Bestimmung mechanischer Eigenschaften dünner Polymerfilme mittels AFM-Kraft-Abstands-Kurven

In der vorliegenden Arbeit wurden AFM-Kraft-Abstands-Kurven benutzt, um die mechanischen Eigenschaften dünner Polymerfilme verschiedener Schichtdicken (2 - 400 nm) auf einem sehr viel steiferen Substrat (mechanische Doppelschichten) zu untersuchen. Die mechanischen Eigenschaften einer solchen Probe setzen sich aus den mechanischen Eigenschaften der Bestandteile, d.h. Polymer und Substrat, zusammen. Der Beitrag der Bestandteile hängt von der Schichtdicke und von der Auflagekraft ab. Es wurden existierende Modelle für die Auswertung von an Doppelschichten gemessenen Deformationskurven überprüft und festgestellt, dass kein Modell befriedigende Ergebnisse erzielt. Dies zeigte die Notwendigkeit einer neuen semiempirischen Theorie zur Beschreibung der Deformationskurven von mechanischen Doppelschichten. In dieser Arbeit wird der hyperbolische Fit zu diesem Zweck eingeführt. Die Validität des hyperbolischen Fit wurde anhand von drei Experimenten gezeigt. Alle experimentellen Kurven konnten sehr gut durch den hyperbolischen Fit beschrieben werden. Die Elastizitätsmoduln der Bestandteile konnten in Übereinstimmung mit den Literaturwerten berechnet werden. Die Schichtdicken der Proben konnten in allen Fällen mit großer Exaktheit bestimmt werden. Es wurde zudem die Möglichkeit der Auswertung einzelner Kraft-Abstands-Kurven untersucht. Damit konnte die Schichtdicke der untersuchten Doppelschichten ortsaufgelöst im Submikrometerbereich bestimmt werden und ein verstecktes Substrat detektiert werden. Die Adhäsion an der Grenzfläche Polymer/Substrat hat einen fundamentalen Einfluss auf die mechanischen Eigenschaften der Doppelschicht, der qualitativ im letzten Teil der Doktorarbeit gezeigt werden konnte.

Caratteristiche ed efficienza economica del Distretto agroalimentare del Pecorino Romano DOP

Una delle realtà economiche più importanti della Sardegna è la produzione di Pecorino Romano DOP. Il contesto nel quale è nato e si è sviluppato ingloba molte delle precondizioni che favoriscono la nascita di un distretto. Il principale obiettivo di questo studio è verificare se il comparto lattiero caseario della Sardegna, focalizzato nella produzione di Pecorino Romano DOP, può creare un effetto distretto. Ciò potrebbe suggerire l'esistenza dello stesso distretto anche se atipico. Per verificare questa ipotesi, in primo luogo è stata esaminata l'efficienza produttiva delle imprese trasformatrici di Pecorino Romano utilizzando il metodo della Frontiera stocastica di produzione. Successivamente sono state cercate le cause delle differenze. Lo studio mostra che i livelli di efficienza osservati sono quasi interamente attribuibili agli input di produzione utilizzati, in particolare al latte. Risulta chiaro che il sistema delle cooperative funziona e che tali aziende ottengono sistematicamente margini di efficienza migliori rispetto alle non cooperative. Le variabili analizzate non permettono di concludere che esiste un "effetto distretto".

Sparse Signal Representation of Ultrasonic Signals for Structural Health Monitoring Applications

Assessment of the integrity of structural components is of great importance for aerospace systems, land and marine transportation, civil infrastructures and other biological and mechanical applications. Guided waves (GWs) based inspections are an attractive mean for structural health monitoring. In this thesis, the study and development of techniques for GW ultrasound signal analysis and compression in the context of non-destructive testing of structures will be presented. In guided wave inspections, it is necessary to address the problem of the dispersion compensation. A signal processing approach based on frequency warping was adopted. Such operator maps the frequencies axis through a function derived by the group velocity of the test material and it is used to remove the dependence on the travelled distance from the acquired signals. Such processing strategy was fruitfully applied for impact location and damage localization tasks in composite and aluminum panels. It has been shown that, basing on this processing tool, low power embedded system for GW structural monitoring can be implemented. Finally, a new procedure based on Compressive Sensing has been developed and applied for data reduction. Such procedure has also a beneficial effect in enhancing the accuracy of structural defects localization. This algorithm uses the convolutive model of the propagation of ultrasonic guided waves which takes advantage of a sparse signal representation in the warped frequency domain. The recovery from the compressed samples is based on an alternating minimization procedure which achieves both an accurate reconstruction of the ultrasonic signal and a precise estimation of waves time of flight. Such information is used to feed hyperbolic or elliptic localization procedures, for accurate impact or damage localization.

High-resolution reconstruction of Holocene climate variability and environmental changes in the North Pacific using bivalve shells

Bivalve mollusk shells are useful tools for multi-species and multi-proxy paleoenvironmental reconstructions with a high temporal and spatial resolution. Past environmental conditions can be reconstructed from shell growth and stable oxygen and carbon isotope ratios, which present an archive for temperature, freshwater fluxes and primary productivity. The purpose of this thesis is the reconstruction of Holocene climate and environmental variations in the North Pacific with a high spatial and temporal resolution using marine bivalve shells. This thesis focuses on several different Holocene time periods and multiple regions in the North Pacific, including: Japan, Alaska (AK), British Columbia (BC) and Washington State, which are affected by the monsoon, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Such high-resolution proxy data from the marine realm of mid- and high-latitudes are still rare. Therefore, this study contributes to the optimization and verification of climate models. However, before using bivalves for environmental reconstructions and seasonality studies, life history traits must be well studied to temporally align and interpret the geochemical record. These calibration studies are essential to ascertain the usefulness of selected bivalve species as paleoclimate proxy archives. This work focuses on two bivalve species, the short-lived Saxidomus gigantea and the long-lived Panopea abrupta. Sclerochronology and oxygen isotope ratios of different shell layers of P. abrupta were studied in order to test the reliability of this species as a climate archive. The annual increments are clearly discernable in umbonal shell portions and the increments widths should be measured in these shell portions. A reliable reconstruction of paleotemperatures may only be achieved by exclusively sampling the outer shell layer of multiple contemporaneous specimens. Life history traits (e.g., timing of growth line formation, duration of the growing season and growth rates) and stable isotope ratios of recent S. gigantea from AK and BC were analyzed in detail. Furthermore, a growth-temperature model based on S. gigantea shells from Alaska was established, which provides a better understanding of the hydrological changes related to the Alaska Coastal Current (ACC). This approach allows the independent measurement of water temperature and salinity from variations in the width of lunar daily growth increments of S. gigantea. Temperature explains 70% of the variability in shell growth. The model was calibrated and tested with modern shells and then applied to archaeological specimens. The time period between 988 and 1447 cal yrs BP was characterized by colder (~1-2°C) and much drier (2-5 PSU) summers, and a likely much slower flowing ACC than at present. In contrast, the summers during the time interval of 599-1014 cal yrs BP were colder (up to 3°C) and fresher (1-2 PSU) than today. The Aleutian Low may have been stronger and the ACC was probably flowing faster during this time.

Symplectic Lagrangian fibrations

In this work we investigate the deformation theory of pairs of an irreducible symplectic manifold X together with a Lagrangian subvariety Y in X, where the focus is on singular Lagrangian subvarieties. Among other things, Voisin's results [Voi92] are generalized to the case of simple normal crossing subvarieties; partial results are also obtained for more complicated singularities.rnAs done in Voisin's article, we link the codimension of the subspace of the universal deformation space of X parametrizing those deformations where Y persists, to the rank of a certain map in cohomology. This enables us in some concrete cases to actually calculate or at least estimate the codimension of this particular subspace. In these cases the Lagrangian subvarieties in question occur as fibers or fiber components of a given Lagrangian fibration f : X --> B. We discuss examples and the question of how our results might help to understand some aspects of Lagrangian fibrations.

Tutela e valorizzazione delle produzioni agroalimentari di qualità attraverso strategie di brand management.Il modello Coop.

Questa tesi di dottorato verte sull'individuazione di politiche industriali atte ad implementare il mercato dei prodotti a denominazione di origine. Inevitabilmente, l’analisi economica dei prodotti agroalimentari tipici di qualità implica anche l’approfondimento e l’individuazione, delle problematiche connesse con la creazione di un valore addizionale per il consumatore, rispetto a quello dei prodotti standardizzati. Questo approccio richiama l’attenzione, da una parte, sulle caratteristiche della domanda e sulla disponibilità del consumatore a riconoscere e apprezzare questo plus-valore, dall’altra sulle strategie che l’offerta può attivare per conseguire un premium price rispetto al prodotto standardizzato. Le certificazioni comunitarie Dop, Igp e Stg oltre che il marchio di prodotto biologico racchiudono, solitamente, tali dinamiche valoriali ma sono tutt’oggi poco conosciute dai consumatori. Diversi studi internazionali dimostrano, infatti, che la maggioranza dei cittadini comunitari ignorano il significato delle certificazioni di qualità. L’ipotesi di fondo di questo studio si basa sulla possibilità di fidelizzare questi marchi con i brand della grande distribuzione già affermati, come quello di Coop. Analizzare gli effetti dell’introduzione di prodotti private label a denominazione di origine nel mercato della grande distribuzione organizzata italiana ci permetterebbe di comprendere se questo segmento di mercato può aiutare il settore delle Dop/Igp. Questo studio ha cercato di verificare se il prodotto private label a denominazione di origine, riesca a sfruttare il doppio binario di fiducia rappresentato dal marchio comunitario unito a quello dell’impresa di distribuzione. Per comprendere la propensione del consumatore a spendere di più per questi prodotti, abbiamo utilizzato l’analisi dell’elasticità della domanda sul prezzo dei dati scanner fornitici da Coop Adriatica. Siamo riusciti a dimostrare tale positivo connubio confermato anche da una indagine demoscopica effettuata ad hoc sui consumatori.

The geometry of Lagrangian fibres

If the generic fibre f−1(c) of a Lagrangian fibration f : X → B on a complex Poisson– variety X is smooth, compact, and connected, it is isomorphic to the compactification of a complex abelian Lie–group. For affine Lagrangian fibres it is not clear what the structure of the fibre is. Adler and van Moerbeke developed a strategy to prove that the generic fibre of a Lagrangian fibration is isomorphic to the affine part of an abelian variety.rnWe extend their strategy to verify that the generic fibre of a given Lagrangian fibration is the affine part of a (C∗)r–extension of an abelian variety. This strategy turned out to be successful for all examples we studied. Additionally we studied examples of Lagrangian fibrations that have the affine part of a ramified cyclic cover of an abelian variety as generic fibre. We obtained an embedding in a Lagrangian fibration that has the affine part of a C∗–extension of an abelian variety as generic fibre. This embedding is not an embedding in the category of Lagrangian fibrations. The C∗–quotient of the new Lagrangian fibration defines in a natural way a deformation of the cyclic quotient of the original Lagrangian fibration.

IMEX finite volume methods for the shallow water equations

Die Flachwassergleichungen (SWE) sind ein hyperbolisches System von Bilanzgleichungen, die adäquate Approximationen an groß-skalige Strömungen der Ozeane, Flüsse und der Atmosphäre liefern. Dabei werden Masse und Impuls erhalten. Wir unterscheiden zwei charakteristische Geschwindigkeiten: die Advektionsgeschwindigkeit, d.h. die Geschwindigkeit des Massentransports, und die Geschwindigkeit von Schwerewellen, d.h. die Geschwindigkeit der Oberflächenwellen, die Energie und Impuls tragen. Die Froude-Zahl ist eine Kennzahl und ist durch das Verhältnis der Referenzadvektionsgeschwindigkeit zu der Referenzgeschwindigkeit der Schwerewellen gegeben. Für die oben genannten Anwendungen ist sie typischerweise sehr klein, z.B. 0.01. Zeit-explizite Finite-Volume-Verfahren werden am öftersten zur numerischen Berechnung hyperbolischer Bilanzgleichungen benutzt. Daher muss die CFL-Stabilitätsbedingung eingehalten werden und das Zeitinkrement ist ungefähr proportional zu der Froude-Zahl. Deswegen entsteht bei kleinen Froude-Zahlen, etwa kleiner als 0.2, ein hoher Rechenaufwand. Ferner sind die numerischen Lösungen dissipativ. Es ist allgemein bekannt, dass die Lösungen der SWE gegen die Lösungen der Seegleichungen/ Froude-Zahl Null SWE für Froude-Zahl gegen Null konvergieren, falls adäquate Bedingungen erfüllt sind. In diesem Grenzwertprozess ändern die Gleichungen ihren Typ von hyperbolisch zu hyperbolisch.-elliptisch. Ferner kann bei kleinen Froude-Zahlen die Konvergenzordnung sinken oder das numerische Verfahren zusammenbrechen. Insbesondere wurde bei zeit-expliziten Verfahren falsches asymptotisches Verhalten (bzgl. der Froude-Zahl) beobachtet, das diese Effekte verursachen könnte.Ozeanographische und atmosphärische Strömungen sind typischerweise kleine Störungen eines unterliegenden Equilibriumzustandes. Wir möchten, dass numerische Verfahren für Bilanzgleichungen gewisse Equilibriumzustände exakt erhalten, sonst können künstliche Strömungen vom Verfahren erzeugt werden. Daher ist die Quelltermapproximation essentiell. Numerische Verfahren die Equilibriumzustände erhalten heißen ausbalanciert.rnrnIn der vorliegenden Arbeit spalten wir die SWE in einen steifen, linearen und einen nicht-steifen Teil, um die starke Einschränkung der Zeitschritte durch die CFL-Bedingung zu umgehen. Der steife Teil wird implizit und der nicht-steife explizit approximiert. Dazu verwenden wir IMEX (implicit-explicit) Runge-Kutta und IMEX Mehrschritt-Zeitdiskretisierungen. Die Raumdiskretisierung erfolgt mittels der Finite-Volumen-Methode. Der steife Teil wird mit Hilfe von finiter Differenzen oder au eine acht mehrdimensional Art und Weise approximniert. Zur mehrdimensionalen Approximation verwenden wir approximative Evolutionsoperatoren, die alle unendlich viele Informationsausbreitungsrichtungen berücksichtigen. Die expliziten Terme werden mit gewöhnlichen numerischen Flüssen approximiert. Daher erhalten wir eine Stabilitätsbedingung analog zu einer rein advektiven Strömung, d.h. das Zeitinkrement vergrößert um den Faktor Kehrwert der Froude-Zahl. Die in dieser Arbeit hergeleiteten Verfahren sind asymptotisch erhaltend und ausbalanciert. Die asymptotischer Erhaltung stellt sicher, dass numerische Lösung das "korrekte" asymptotische Verhalten bezüglich kleiner Froude-Zahlen besitzt. Wir präsentieren Verfahren erster und zweiter Ordnung. Numerische Resultate bestätigen die Konvergenzordnung, so wie Stabilität, Ausbalanciertheit und die asymptotische Erhaltung. Insbesondere beobachten wir bei machen Verfahren, dass die Konvergenzordnung fast unabhängig von der Froude-Zahl ist.

An ice-core based history of Siberian forest fires since AD 1250

Forest fires play a key role in the global carbon cycle and thus, can affect regional and global climate. Although fires in extended areas of Russian boreal forests have a considerable influence on atmospheric greenhouse gas and soot concentrations, estimates of their impact on climate are hampered by a lack of data on the history of forest fires. Especially regions with strong continental climate are of high importance due to an intensified development of wildfires. In this study we reconstruct the fire history of Southern Siberia during the past 750 years using ice-core based nitrate, potassium, and charcoal concentration records from Belukha glacier in the continental Siberian Altai. A period of exceptionally high forest-fire activity was observed between AD 1600 and 1680, following an extremely dry period AD 1540-1600. Ice-core pollen data suggest distinct forest diebacks and the expansion of steppe in response to dry climatic conditions. Coherence with a paleoenvironmental record from the 200 km distant Siberian lake Teletskoye shows that the vegetational shift AD 1540-1680, the increase in fire activity AD 1600-1680, and the subsequent recovery of forests AD 1700 were of regional significance. Dead biomass accumulation in response to drought and high temperatures around AD 1600 probably triggered maximum forest-fire activity AD 1600-1680. The extreme dry period in the 16th century was also observed at other sites in Central Asia and is possibly associated with a persistent positive mode of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). No significant increase in biomass burning occurred in the Altai region during the last 300 years, despite strongly increasing temperatures and human activities. Our results imply that precipitation changes controlled fire-regime and vegetation shifts in the Altai region during the past 750 years. We conclude that high sensitivity of ecosystems to occasional decadal-scale drought events may trigger unprecedented environmental reorganizations under global-warming conditions.

Geophysical Investigation of Subsurface Three-Dimensional Architecture of Icy Debris Fans With Ground Penetrating Radar in the Wrangell Mountains, Alaska

Icy debris fans have are newly-described landforms (Kochel and Trop, 2008 and 2012) as landforms developed immediately after deglaciation on Earth and similar features have been observed on Mars. Subsurface characteristics of Icy debris fans have not been previously investigated. Ground penetrating radar (GPR) was used to non-invasively investigate the subsurface characteristics of icy debris fans near McCarthy, Alaska, USA. The three fans investigated in Alaska are the East, West, and Middle fans (Kochel and Trop, 2008 and 2012) which below the Nabesna ice cap and on top of the McCarthy Creek Glacier. Icy debris fans in general are a largely unexplored suite of paraglacial landforms and processes in alpine regions. Recent field studies focused on direct observations and depositional processes. Their results showed that the fan's composition is primarily influenced by the type and frequency of depositional processes that supply the fan. Photographic studies show that the East Fan receives far more ice and snow avalanches whereas the Middle and West Fans receive fewer mass wasting events but more clastic debris is deposited on the Middle and West fan from rock falls and icy debris flows. GPR profiles and Wide-angle reflection and refraction (WARR) surveys consisting of both, common mid-point (CMP), and common shot-point (CSP) surveys investigated the subsurface geometry of the fans and the McCarthy Creek Glacier. All GPR surveys were collected in July of 2013 with 100MHz bi-static antennas. Four axial profiles and three cross-fan profiles were done on the West and Middle fans as well as the McCarthy Creek Glacier in order to investigate the relationship between the three features. GPR profiles yielded reflectors that were continuous for 10+ m and hyperbolic reflections in the subsurface. The depth to these reflections in the subsurface requires knowledge of the velocity of the subsurface. To find the velocity of the subsurface eight WARR surveys collected on the fans and on the McCarthy Creek glacier to provide information on variability of subsurface velocities. The profiles of the Middle and West fan have more reflections in their profiles compared to profiles done on the McCarthy Creek Glacier. Based on the WARR surveys, we interpret the lower energy return in the glacier to be caused by two reasons. 1) The increased attenuation due to wet ice versus drier ice and on the fan with GPR velocities >0.15m/ns. 2) Lack of interfaces in the glacier compared to those in the fans which are inferred to be produced by the alternating layers of stratified ice and lithic-rich layers. The GPR profiles on the West and Middle Fans show the shallow subsurface being dominated by lenticular reflections interpreted to be consistent with the shape of surficial deposits. The West Fan is distinguished from the Middle Fan by the nature of its reflections patterns and thicknesses of reflection packages that clearly shows the Middle fan with a greater thickness. The changes in subsurface reflections between the Middle and West Fans as well as the McCarthy Creek Glacier are thought to reflect the type and frequency of depositional processes and surrounding bedrock and talus slopes.

Evaluation of flood risk in response to climate variability

Standard procedures for forecasting flood risk (Bulletin 17B) assume annual maximum flood (AMF) series are stationary, meaning the distribution of flood flows is not significantly affected by climatic trends/cycles, or anthropogenic activities within the watershed. Historical flood events are therefore considered representative of future flood occurrences, and the risk associated with a given flood magnitude is modeled as constant over time. However, in light of increasing evidence to the contrary, this assumption should be reconsidered, especially as the existence of nonstationarity in AMF series can have significant impacts on planning and management of water resources and relevant infrastructure. Research presented in this thesis quantifies the degree of nonstationarity evident in AMF series for unimpaired watersheds throughout the contiguous U.S., identifies meteorological, climatic, and anthropogenic causes of this nonstationarity, and proposes an extension of the Bulletin 17B methodology which yields forecasts of flood risk that reflect climatic influences on flood magnitude. To appropriately forecast flood risk, it is necessary to consider the driving causes of nonstationarity in AMF series. Herein, large-scale climate patterns—including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)—are identified as influencing factors on flood magnitude at numerous stations across the U.S. Strong relationships between flood magnitude and associated precipitation series were also observed for the majority of sites analyzed in the Upper Midwest and Northeastern regions of the U.S. Although relationships between flood magnitude and associated temperature series are not apparent, results do indicate that temperature is highly correlated with the timing of flood peaks. Despite consideration of watersheds classified as unimpaired, analyses also suggest that identified change-points in AMF series are due to dam construction, and other types of regulation and diversion. Although not explored herein, trends in AMF series are also likely to be partially explained by changes in land use and land cover over time. Results obtained herein suggest that improved forecasts of flood risk may be obtained using a simple modification of the Bulletin 17B framework, wherein the mean and standard deviation of the log-transformed flows are modeled as functions of climate indices associated with oceanic-atmospheric patterns (e.g. AMO, ENSO, NAO, and PDO) with lead times between 3 and 9 months. Herein, one-year ahead forecasts of the mean and standard deviation, and subsequently flood risk, are obtained by applying site specific multivariate regression models, which reflect the phase and intensity of a given climate pattern, as well as possible impacts of coupling of the climate cycles. These forecasts of flood risk are compared with forecasts derived using the existing Bulletin 17B model; large differences in the one-year ahead forecasts are observed in some locations. The increased knowledge of the inherent structure of AMF series and an improved understanding of physical and/or climatic causes of nonstationarity gained from this research should serve as insight for the formulation of a physical-casual based statistical model, incorporating both climatic variations and human impacts, for flood risk over longer planning horizons (e.g., 10-, 50, 100-years) necessary for water resources design, planning, and management.

Evaluating the usefulness of soil moisture (forecasts) in streamflow prediction for central Texas

The past decade has brought significant advancements in seasonal climate forecasting. However, water resources decision support and management continues to be based almost entirely on historical observations and does not take advantage of climate forecasts. This study builds on previous work that conditioned streamflow ensemble forecasts on observable climate indicators, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) for use in a decision support model for the Highland Lakes multi-reservoir system in central Texas operated by the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA). In the current study, seasonal soil moisture is explored as a climate indicator and predictor of annual streamflow for the LCRA region. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the correlation of fractional soil moisture with streamflow using the 1950-2000 Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Retrospective Land Surface Data Set over the LCRA region. Correlations were determined by examining different annual and seasonal combinations of VIC modeled fractional soil moisture and observed streamflow. The applicability of the VIC Retrospective Land Surface Data Set as a data source for this study is tested along with establishing and analyzing patterns of climatology for the watershed study area using the selected data source (VIC model) and historical data. Correlation results showed potential for the use of soil moisture as a predictor of streamflow over the LCRA region. This was evident by the good correlations found between seasonal soil moisture and seasonal streamflow during coincident seasons as well as between seasonal and annual soil moisture with annual streamflow during coincident years. With the findings of good correlation between seasonal soil moisture from the VIC Retrospective Land Surface Data Set with observed annual streamflow presented in this study, future research would evaluate the application of NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts of soil moisture in predicting annual streamflow for use in the decision support model for the LCRA.

Use of hydroclimatic forecasts for improved water management in central Texas

Accurate seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts based on climate information are critical for optimal management and operation of water resources systems. Considering most water supply systems are multipurpose, operating these systems to meet increasing demand under the growing stresses of climate variability and climate change, population and economic growth, and environmental concerns could be very challenging. This study was to investigate improvement in water resources systems management through the use of seasonal climate forecasts. Hydrological persistence (streamflow and precipitation) and large-scale recurrent oceanic-atmospheric patterns such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific North American (PNA), and customized sea surface temperature (SST) indices were investigated for their potential to improve streamflow forecast accuracy and increase forecast lead-time in a river basin in central Texas. First, an ordinal polytomous logistic regression approach is proposed as a means of incorporating multiple predictor variables into a probabilistic forecast model. Forecast performance is assessed through a cross-validation procedure, using distributions-oriented metrics, and implications for decision making are discussed. Results indicate that, of the predictors evaluated, only hydrologic persistence and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature patterns associated with ENSO and PDO provide forecasts which are statistically better than climatology. Secondly, a class of data mining techniques, known as tree-structured models, is investigated to address the nonlinear dynamics of climate teleconnections and screen promising probabilistic streamflow forecast models for river-reservoir systems. Results show that the tree-structured models can effectively capture the nonlinear features hidden in the data. Skill scores of probabilistic forecasts generated by both classification trees and logistic regression trees indicate that seasonal inflows throughout the system can be predicted with sufficient accuracy to improve water management, especially in the winter and spring seasons in central Texas. Lastly, a simplified two-stage stochastic economic-optimization model was proposed to investigate improvement in water use efficiency and the potential value of using seasonal forecasts, under the assumption of optimal decision making under uncertainty. Model results demonstrate that incorporating the probabilistic inflow forecasts into the optimization model can provide a significant improvement in seasonal water contract benefits over climatology, with lower average deficits (increased reliability) for a given average contract amount, or improved mean contract benefits for a given level of reliability compared to climatology. The results also illustrate the trade-off between the expected contract amount and reliability, i.e., larger contracts can be signed at greater risk.

Maximum principle preserving high order schemes for convection-dominated diffusion equations

The maximum principle is an important property of solutions to PDE. Correspondingly, it's of great interest for people to design a high order numerical scheme solving PDE with this property maintained. In this thesis, our particular interest is solving convection-dominated diffusion equation. We first review a nonconventional maximum principle preserving(MPP) high order finite volume(FV) WENO scheme, and then propose a new parametrized MPP high order finite difference(FD) WENO framework, which is generalized from the one solving hyperbolic conservation laws. A formal analysis is presented to show that a third order finite difference scheme with this parametrized MPP flux limiters maintains the third order accuracy without extra CFL constraint when the low order monotone flux is chosen appropriately. Numerical tests in both one and two dimensional cases are performed on the simulation of the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations in vorticity stream-function formulation and several other problems to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Atmospheric Soluble Dust Records from a Tibetan Ice Core: Possible Climate Proxies and Teleconnection With the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

In autumn 2005, a joint expedition between the University of Maine and the Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research recovered three ice cores from Guoqu Glacier (33 degrees 34'37.80 '' N, 91 degrees 10'35.3 '' E, 5720 m above sea level) on the northern side of Mt. Geladaindong, central Tibetan Plateau. Isotopes ( delta(18)O), major soluble ions (Na(+), K(+), Mg(2+), Ca(2+), Cl(-), NO(3)(-), SO(4)(2-)), and radionuclide (beta-activity) measurements from one of the cores revealed a 70-year record (1935-2005). Statistical analysis of major ion time series suggests that atmospheric soluble dust species dominate the chemical signature and that background dust levels conceal marine ion species deposition. The soluble dust time series have interspecies relations and common structure (empirical orthogonal function (EOF) 1), suggesting a similar soluble dust source or transport route. Annual and seasonal correlations between the EOF 1 time series and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis climate variables (1948-2004) suggest that the Mt. Geladaindong ice core record provides a proxy for local and regional surface pressure. An approximately threefold decrease of soluble dust concentrations in the middle to late 1970s, accompanied by regional increases in pressure and temperature and decreases in wind velocity, coincides with the major 1976-1977 shift of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) from a negative to a positive state. This is the first ice core evidence of a potential teleconnection between central Asian atmospheric soluble dust loading and the PDO. Analysis of temporally longer ice cores from Mt. Geladaindong may enhance understanding of the relationship between the PDO and central Asian atmospheric circulation and subsequent atmospheric soluble dust loading.