Improved neural network scatterometer forward models

Current methods for retrieving near-surface winds from scatterometer observations over the ocean surface require a forward sensor model which maps the wind vector to the measured backscatter. This paper develops a hybrid neural network forward model, which retains the physical understanding embodied in CMOD4, but incorporates greater flexibility, allowing a better fit to the observations. By introducing a separate model for the midbeam and using a common model for the fore and aft beams, we show a significant improvement in local wind vector retrieval. The hybrid model also fits the scatterometer observations more closely. The model is trained in a Bayesian framework, accounting for the noise on the wind vector inputs. We show that adding more high wind speed observations in the training set improves wind vector retrieval at high wind speeds without compromising performance at medium or low wind speeds. Copyright 2001 by the American Geophysical Union.

A pragmatic Bayesian approach to wind field retrieval

The ERS-1 Satellite was launched in July 1991 by the European Space Agency into a polar orbit at about 800 km, carrying a C-band scatterometer. A scatterometer measures the amount of backscatter microwave radiation reflected by small ripples on the ocean surface induced by sea-surface winds, and so provides instantaneous snap-shots of wind flow over large areas of the ocean surface, known as wind fields. Inherent in the physics of the observation process is an ambiguity in wind direction; the scatterometer cannot distinguish if the wind is blowing toward or away from the sensor device. This ambiguity implies that there is a one-to-many mapping between scatterometer data and wind direction. Current operational methods for wind field retrieval are based on the retrieval of wind vectors from satellite scatterometer data, followed by a disambiguation and filtering process that is reliant on numerical weather prediction models. The wind vectors are retrieved by the local inversion of a forward model, mapping scatterometer observations to wind vectors, and minimising a cost function in scatterometer measurement space. This thesis applies a pragmatic Bayesian solution to the problem. The likelihood is a combination of conditional probability distributions for the local wind vectors given the scatterometer data. The prior distribution is a vector Gaussian process that provides the geophysical consistency for the wind field. The wind vectors are retrieved directly from the scatterometer data by using mixture density networks, a principled method to model multi-modal conditional probability density functions. The complexity of the mapping and the structure of the conditional probability density function are investigated. A hybrid mixture density network, that incorporates the knowledge that the conditional probability distribution of the observation process is predominantly bi-modal, is developed. The optimal model, which generalises across a swathe of scatterometer readings, is better on key performance measures than the current operational model. Wind field retrieval is approached from three perspectives. The first is a non-autonomous method that confirms the validity of the model by retrieving the correct wind field 99% of the time from a test set of 575 wind fields. The second technique takes the maximum a posteriori probability wind field retrieved from the posterior distribution as the prediction. For the third technique, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques were employed to estimate the mass associated with significant modes of the posterior distribution, and make predictions based on the mode with the greatest mass associated with it. General methods for sampling from multi-modal distributions were benchmarked against a specific MCMC transition kernel designed for this problem. It was shown that the general methods were unsuitable for this application due to computational expense. On a test set of 100 wind fields the MAP estimate correctly retrieved 72 wind fields, whilst the sampling method correctly retrieved 73 wind fields.

Independent Monitoring the Cuban Economic Zone Oil Development

The extensive impact and consequences of the 2010 Deep Water Horizon oil drilling rig failure in the Gulf of Mexico, together with expanding drilling activities in the Cuban Exclusive Economic zone, have cast a spotlight on Cuban oil development. The threat of a drilling rig failure has evolved from being only hypothetical to a potential reality with the commencement of active drilling in Cuban waters. The disastrous consequences of a drilling rig failure in Cuban waters will spread over a number of vital interests of the US and of nations in the Caribbean in the general environs of Cuba. The US fishing and tourist industries will take major blows from a significant oil spill in Cuban waters. Substantial ecological damage and damage to beaches could occur for the US, Mexico, Haiti and other countries as well. The need exists for the US to have the ability to independently monitor the reality of Cuban oceanic oil development. The advantages of having an independent US early warning system providing essential real-time data on the possible failure of a drilling rig in Cuban waters are numerous. An ideal early warning system would timely inform the US that an event has occurred or is likely to occur in, essentially, real-time. Presently operating monitoring systems that could provide early warning information are satellite-based. Such systems can indicate the locations of both drilling rigs and operational drilling platforms. The system discussed/proposed in this paper relies upon low-frequency underwater sound. The proposed system can complement existing monitoring systems, which offer ocean-surface information, by providing sub-ocean surface, near-real time, information. This “integrated system” utilizes and combines (integrates) many different forms of information, some gathered through sub-ocean surface systems, and some through electromagnetic-based remote sensing (satellites, aircraft, unmanned arial vehicles), and other methods as well. Although the proposed integrated system is in the developmental stage, it is based upon well-established technologies.

Last Interglacial synthesis of high-latitude temperature: temperature anomalies and associated errors for 4 time slices

The Last Interglacial (LIG, 129-116 thousand of years BP, ka) represents a test bed for climate model feedbacks in warmer-than-present high latitude regions. However, mainly because aligning different palaeoclimatic archives and from different parts of the world is not trivial, a spatio-temporal picture of LIG temperature changes is difficult to obtain. Here, we have selected 47 polar ice core and sub-polar marine sediment records and developed a strategy to align them onto the recent AICC2012 ice core chronology. We provide the first compilation of high-latitude temperature changes across the LIG associated with a coherent temporal framework built between ice core and marine sediment records. Our new data synthesis highlights non-synchronous maximum temperature changes between the two hemispheres with the Southern Ocean and Antarctica records showing an early warming compared to North Atlantic records. We also observe warmer than present-day conditions that occur for a longer time period in southern high latitudes than in northern high latitudes. Finally, the amplitude of temperature changes at high northern latitudes is larger compared to high southern latitude temperature changes recorded at the onset and the demise of the LIG. We have also compiled four data-based time slices with temperature anomalies (compared to present-day conditions) at 115 ka, 120 ka, 125 ka and 130 ka and quantitatively estimated temperature uncertainties that include relative dating errors. This provides an improved benchmark for performing more robust model-data comparison. The surface temperature simulated by two General Circulation Models (CCSM3 and HadCM3) for 130 ka and 125 ka is compared to the corresponding time slice data synthesis. This comparison shows that the models predict warmer than present conditions earlier than documented in the North Atlantic, while neither model is able to produce the reconstructed early Southern Ocean and Antarctic warming. Our results highlight the importance of producing a sequence of time slices rather than one single time slice averaging the LIG climate conditions.

Composition of sediments from the Arabian Sea

Thirty seven deep-sea sediment cores from the Arabian Sea were studied geochemically (49 major and trace elements) for four time slices during the Holocene and the last glacial, and in one high sedimentation rate core (century scale resolution) to detect tracers of past variations in the intensity of the atmospheric monsoon circulation and its hydrographic expression in the ocean surface. This geochemical multi-tracer approach, coupled with additional information on the grain size composition of the clastic fraction, the bulk carbonate and biogenic opal contents makes it possible to characterize the sedimentological regime in detail. Sediments characterized by a specific elemental composition (enrichment) originated from the following sources: river suspensions from the Tapti and Narbada, draining the Indian Deccan traps (Ti, Sr); Indus sediments and dust from Rajasthan and Pakistan (Rb, Cs); dust from Iran and the Persian Gulf (Al, Cr); dust from central Arabia (Mg); dust from East Africa and the Red Sea (Zr/Hf, Ti/Al). Corg, Cd, Zn, Ba, Pb, U, and the HREE are associated with the intensity of upwelling in the western Arabian Sea, but only those patterns that are consistently reproduced by all of these elements can be directly linked with the intensity of the southwest monsoon. Relying on information from a single element can be misleading, as each element is affected by various other processes than upwelling intensity and nutrient content of surface water alone. The application of the geochemical multi-tracer approach indicates that the intensity of the southwest monsoon was low during the LGM, declined to a minimum from 15,000-13,000 14C year BP, intensified slightly at the end of this interval, was almost stable during the Bölling, Alleröd and the Younger Dryas, but then intensified in two abrupt successions at the end of the Younger Dryas (9900 14C year BP) and especially in a second event during the early Holocene (8800 14C year BP). Dust discharge by northwesterly winds from Arabia exhibited a similar evolution, but followed an opposite course: high during the LGM with two primary sources-the central Arabian desert and the dry Persian Gulf region. Dust discharge from both regions reached a pronounced maximum at 15,000-13,000 14C year. At the end of this interval, however, the dust plumes from the Persian Gulf area ceased dramatically, whereas dust discharge from central Arabia decreased only slightly. Dust discharge from East Africa and the Red Sea increased synchronously with the two major events of southwest monsoon intensification as recorded in the nutrient content of surface waters. In addition to the tracers of past dust flux and surface water nutrient content, the geochemical multi-tracer approach provides information on the history of deep sea ventilation (Mo, S), which was much lower during the last glacial maximum than during the Holocene. The multi-tracer approach-i.e. a few sedimentological parameters plus a set of geochemical tracers widely available from various multi-element analysis techniques-is a highly applicable technique for studying the complex sedimentation patterns of an ocean basin, and, specifically in the case of the Arabian Sea, can even reveal the seasonal structure of climate change.

Análise dos microssismos registrados no arquipélago de São Pedro e São Paulo (ASPSP) e suas relações com variáveis oceanográficas

Microseisms are continuous vibrations pervasively recorded in the mili Hertz to 1 Hz frequency range. These vibrations are mostly composed of Rayleigh waves and are strongest in the 0.04 to 1 Hz frequency band. Their precise source mechanisms are still a matter of debate but it is agreed that they are related to atmospheric perturbations and ocean gravity waves. The Saint Peter Saint Paul Archipelago (SPSPA) is located in the equatorial region of the Atlantic Ocean about 1,100 km distant from the Brazilian northeastern coast. The SPSPA is composed by a set of several small rocky formations with a total area of approximately 17,000 m². Due to its remote distance from the continent and the lack of cultural noise, this location is a unique location for measuring microseismic noise and to investigate its relation with some climate and oceanographic variables. In the SPSPA we have recorded both primary microseisms (PM) at 0.04 – 0.12 Hz and the secondary microseisms (SM) at 0.12 – 0.4 Hz during 10 months in 2012 and 2013. Our analysis indicates a good correlation between the microseismic noise in the region and a seasonal dependency. In particular, the winter in the northern hemisphere. We have also shown that most of the PM is generated in the SPSPA itself. The SM source location depends with the seasonal climatic and oceanographic variables in the northern hemisphere

Estudo da estrutura subsuperficial da província Borborema com correlação de ruído sísmico

Ambient seismic noise has traditionally been considered as an unwanted perturbation in seismic data acquisition that "contaminates" the clean recording of earthquakes. Over the last decade, however, it has been demonstrated that consistent information about the subsurface structure can be extracted from cross-correlation of ambient seismic noise. In this context, the rules are reversed: the ambient seismic noise becomes the desired seismic signal, while earthquakes become the unwanted perturbation that needs to be removed. At periods lower than 30 s, the spectrum of ambient seismic noise is dominated by microseism, which originates from distant atmospheric perturbations over the oceans. The microsseism is the most continuous seismic signal and can be classified as primary – when observed in the range 10-20 s – and secondary – when observed in the range 5-10 s. The Green‘s function of the propagating medium between two receivers (seismic stations) can be reconstructed by cross-correlating seismic noise simultaneously recorded at the receivers. The reconstruction of the Green‘s function is generally proportional to the surface-wave portion of the seismic wavefield, as microsseismic energy travels mostly as surface-waves. In this work, 194 Green‘s functions obtained from stacking of one month of daily cross-correlations of ambient seismic noise recorded in the vertical component of several pairs of broadband seismic stations in Northeast Brazil are presented. The daily cross-correlations were stacked using a timefrequency, phase-weighted scheme that enhances weak coherent signals by reducing incoherent noise. The cross-correlations show that, as expected, the emerged signal is dominated by Rayleigh waves, with dispersion velocities being reliably measured for periods ranging between 5 and 20 s. Both permanent stations from a monitoring seismic network and temporary stations from past passive experiments in the region are considered, resulting in a combined network of 33 stations separated by distances between 60 and 1311 km, approximately. The Rayleigh-wave, dispersion velocity measurements are then used to develop tomographic images of group velocity variation for the Borborema Province of Northeast Brazil. The tomographic maps allow to satisfactorily map buried structural features in the region. At short periods (~5 s) the images reflect shallow crustal structure, clearly delineating intra-continental and marginal sedimentary basins, as well as portions of important shear zones traversing the Borborema Province. At longer periods (10 – 20 s) the images are sensitive to deeper structure in the upper crust, and most of the shallower anomalies fade away. Interestingly, some of them do persist. The deep anomalies do not correlate with either the location of Cenozoic volcanism and uplift - which marked the evolution of the Borborema Province in the Cenozoic - or available maps of surface heat-flow, and the origin of the deep anomalies remains enigmatic.

Dinocyst assemblages of site HM52-43

Past sea-surface conditions over the northern North Atlantic during the last glacial maximum were examined from the study of 61 deep-sea cores. The last glacial maximum time slice studied here corresponds to an interval between Heinrich layers H2 and H1, and spanning about 20-16 ka on a 14C time scale. Transfer functions based on dinocyst assemblages were used to reconstruct sea-surface temperature, salinity, and sea-ice cover. The results illustrate extensive sea-ice cover along the eastern Canadian margins and sea-ice spreading, only during winter, over most of the northern North Atlantic. On the whole, much colder winter prevailed, despite relatively mild conditions in August (10-15°C at most offshore sites), thus suggesting a larger seasonal contrast of temperatures than today. Lower salinity than at present is reconstructed, especially along the eastern Canadian and Scandinavian margins, likely because of meltwater supply from the surrounding ice sheets. These reconstructions contrast with those established by CLIMAP on the basis of planktonic foraminifera. These differences are discussed with reference to the stratigraphical frame of the last glacial maximum, which was not the coldest phase of the last glacial stage. The respective significance of dinocyst and foraminifer records is also examined in terms of the thermohaline characteristics of surface waters and the vertical structure of upper water masses, which was apparently much more stratified than at present in the northern North Atlantic, thus preventing deep-water formation.

(Table S1) Opal content of sediment core OXMZ01MV-GC31

The North American monsoon (NAM), an onshore wind shift occurring between July and September, has evolved in character during the Holocene largely due to changes in Northern Hemisphere insolation. Published paleoproxy and modeling studies suggest that prior to ~8000 cal years BP, the NAM affected a broader region than today, extending westward into the Mojave Desert of California. Holocene proxy SST records from the Gulf of California (GoC) and the adjacent Pacific provide constraints for this changing NAM climatology. Prior to ~8000 cal years BP, lower GoC SSTs would not have fueled northward surges of tropical moisture up the GoC, which presently contribute most of the monsoon precipitation to the western NAM region. During the early Holocene, the North Pacific High was further north and SSTs in the California Current off Baja California were warmer, allowing monsoonal moisture flow from the subtropical Pacific to take a more direct, northwesterly trajectory into an expanded area of the southwestern U.S. west of 114°W. A new upwelling record off southwest Baja California reveals that enhanced upwelling in the California Current beginning at ~7500 cal year BP may have triggered a change in NAM climatology, focusing the geographic expression of NAM in the southwest USA into its modern core region east of ~114°W, in Arizona and New Mexico. Holocene proxy precipitation records from the southwestern U.S. and northwestern Mexico, including lakes, vegetation/pollen, and caves are reviewed and found to be largely supportive of this hypothesis of changing Holocene NAM climatology.

Th-234 and Po-210 as POC flux proxies during the ARK-XXVII/3 expedition (August-October 2012)

The Arctic sea-ice extent reached a record minimum in September 2012. Sea-ice decline increases the absorption of solar energy in the Arctic Ocean, affecting primary production and the plankton community. How this will modulate the sinking of particulate organic carbon (POC) from the ocean surface remains a key question. We use the 234Th/238U and 210Po/210Pb radionuclide pairs to estimate the magnitude of the POC export fluxes in the upper ocean of the central Arctic in summer 2012, covering time scales from weeks to months. The 234Th/238U proxy reveals that POC fluxes at the base of the euphotic zone were very low (2 ± 2 mmol C/m**2/d) in late summer. Relationships obtained between the 234Th export fluxes and the phytoplankton community suggest that prasinophytes contributed significantly to the downward fluxes, likely via incorporation into sea-ice algal aggregates and zooplankton-derived material. The magnitude of the depletion of 210Po in the upper water column over the entire study area indicates that particle export fluxes were higher before July/August than later in the season. 210Po fluxes and 210Po-derived POC fluxes correlated positively with sea-ice concentration, showing that particle sinking was greater under heavy sea-ice conditions than under partially ice-covered regions. Although the POC fluxes were low, a large fraction of primary production (>30%) was exported at the base of the euphotic zone in most of the study area during summer 2012, indicating a high export efficiency of the biological pump in the central Arctic. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

The optical response of nanostructured surfaces and the composite diffracted evanescent wave model

Investigations of the optical response of subwavelength-structure arrays milled into thin metal films have revealed surprising phenomena, including reports of unexpectedly high transmission of light. Many studies have interpreted the optical coupling to the surface in terms of the resonant excitation of surface plasmon polaritons (SPPs), but other approaches involving composite diffraction of surface evanescent waves (CDEW) have also been proposed. Here we present a series of measurements on very simple one-dimensional subwavelength structures to test the key properties of the surface waves, and compare them to the CDEW and SPP models. We find that the optical response of the silver metal surface proceeds in two steps: a diffractive perturbation in the immediate vicinity (2–3 mu m) of the structure, followed by excitation of a persistent surface wave that propagates over tens of micrometres. The measured wavelength and phase of this persistent wave are significantly shifted from those expected for resonance excitation of a conventional SPP on a pure silver surface.

Biological impacts of enhanced alkalinity in Carcinus maenas

Further steps are needed to establish feasible alleviation strategies that are able to reduce the impacts of ocean acidification, whilst ensuring minimal biological side-effects in the process. Whilst there is a growing body of literature on the biological impacts of many other carbon dioxide reduction techniques, seemingly little is known about enhanced alkalinity. For this reason, we investigated the potential physiological impacts of using chemical sequestration as an alleviation strategy. In a controlled experiment, Carcinus maenas were acutely exposed to concentrations of Ca(OH)2 that would be required to reverse the decline in ocean surface pH and return it to pre-industrial levels. Acute exposure significantly affected all individuals' acid-base balance resulting in slight respiratory alkalosis and hyperkalemia, which was strongest in mature females. Although the trigger for both of these responses is currently unclear, this study has shown that alkalinity addition does alter acid-base balance in this comparatively robust crustacean species.

Paleoceanographical studies of MIS 11 for sediment core MD99-2277

Paleoceanographical studies of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 have revealed higher-than-present sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic and in parts of the Arctic, but lower-than-present SSTs in the Nordic Seas, the main throughflow-area of warm water into the Arctic Ocean. We resolve this contradiction by complementing SST data based on planktic foraminiferal abundances with surface salinity changes using hydrogen isotopic compositions of alkenones in a core from the central Nordic Seas. The data indicate the prevalence of a relatively cold, low-salinity, surface water layer in the Nordic Seas during most of MIS 11. In spite of the low-density surface layer, which was kept buoyant by continuous melting of surrounding glaciers, warmer Atlantic water was still propagating northward at the subsurface thus maintaining meridional overturning circulation. This study can help to better constrain the impact of continuous melting of Greenland and Arctic ice on high-latitude ocean circulation and climate.