Developing an integrated hydrograph separation and lumped modelling approach to quantifying hydrological pathways in Irish river catchments

An appreciation of the quantity of streamflow derived from the main hydrological pathways involved in transporting diffuse contaminants is critical when addressing a wide range of water resource management issues. In order to assess hydrological pathway contributions to streams, it is necessary to provide feasible upper and lower bounds for flows in each pathway. An important first step in this process is to provide reliable estimates of the slower responding groundwater pathways and subsequently the quicker overland and interflow pathways. This paper investigates the effectiveness of a multi-faceted approach applying different hydrograph separation techniques, supplemented by lumped hydrological modelling, for calculating the Baseflow Index (BFI), for the development of an integrated approach to hydrograph separation. A semi-distributed, lumped and deterministic rainfall runoff model known as NAM has been applied to ten catchments (ranging from 5 to 699 km2). While this modelling approach is useful as a validation method, NAM itself is also an important tool for investigation. These separation techniques provide a large variation in BFI, a difference of 0.741 predicted for BFI in a catchment with the less reliable fixed and sliding interval methods and local minima turning point methods included. This variation is reduced to 0.167 with these methods omitted. The Boughton and Eckhardt algorithms, while quite subjective in their use, provide quick and easily implemented approaches for obtaining physically realistic hydrograph separations. It is observed that while the different separation techniques give varying BFI values for each of the catchments, a recharge coefficient approach developed in Ireland, when applied in conjunction with the Master recession Curve Tabulation method, predict estimates in agreement with those obtained using the NAM model, and these estimates are also consistent with the study catchments’ geology. These two separation methods, in conjunction with the NAM model, were selected to form an integrated approach to assessing BFI in catchments.

Improved description of chemical barriers with generalized gradient approximations (GGAs) and meta-GGAs

The performance of exchange and correlation (xc) functionals of the generalized gradient approximation (GGA) type and of the meta-GGA type in the calculation of chemical reactions is related to topological features of the electron density which, in turn, are connected to the orbital structure of chemical bonds within the Kohn-Sham (KS) theory. Seventeen GGA and meta-GGA xc functionals are assessed for 15 hydrogen abstraction reactions and 3 symmetrical S(N)2 reactions. Systems that are problematic for standard GGAs characteristically have enhanced values of the dimensionless gradient argument s(sigma)(2) with local maxima in the bonding region. The origin of this topological feature is the occupation of valence KS orbitals with an antibonding or essentially nonbonding character. The local enhancement of s(sigma)(2) yields too negative exchange-correlation energies with standard GGAs for the transition state of the S(N)2 reaction, which leads to the reduced calculated reaction barriers. The unwarranted localization of the effective xc hole of the standard GGAs, i.e., the nondynamical correlation that is built into them but is spurious in this case, wields its effect by their s(sigma)(2) dependence. Barriers are improved for xc functionals with the exchange functional OPTX as x component, which has a modified dependence on s(sigma)(2). Standard GGAs also underestimate the barriers for the hydrogen abstraction reactions. In this case the barriers are improved by correlation functionals, such as the Laplacian-dependent (LAP3) functional, which has a modified dependence on the Coulomb correlation of the opposite- and like-spin electrons. The best overall performance is established for the combination OLAP3 of OPTX and LAP3.

Influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, El Niño-Southern Oscillation and solar forcing on climate and primary productivity changes in the northeast Pacific

Evidence of 11-year Schwabe solar sunspot cycles, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) were detected in an annual record of diatomaceous laminated sediments from anoxic Effingham Inlet, Vancouver Island, British Columbia. Radiometric dating and counting of annual varves dates the sediments from AD 1947-1993. Intact sediment slabs were X-rayed for sediment structure (lamina thickness and composition based on gray-scale), and subsamples were examined for diatom abundances and for grain size. Wavelet analysis reveals the presence of ~2-3, ~4.5, ~7 and ~9-12-year cycles in the diatom record and an w11e13 year record in the sedimentary varve thickness record. These cycle lengths suggest that both ENSO and the sunspot cycle had an influence on primary productivity and sedimentation patterns. Sediment grain size could not be correlated to the sunspot cycle although a peak in the grain size data centered around the mid-1970s may be related to the 1976-1977 Pacific climate shift, which occurred when the PDO index shifted from negative (cool conditions) to positive (warm conditions). Additional evidence of the PDO regime shift is found in wavelet and cross-wavelet results for Skeletonema costatum, a weakly silicified variant of S. costatum, annual precipitation and April to June precipitation. Higher spring (April/May) values of the North Pacific High pressure index during sunspot minima suggest that during this time, increased cloud cover and concomitant suppression of the Aleutian Low (AL) pressure system led to strengthened coastal upwelling and enhanced diatom production earlier in the year. These results suggest that the 11-year solar cycle, amplified by cloud cover and upwelling changes, as well as ENSO, exert significant influence on marine primary productivity in the northeast Pacific. The expression of these cyclic phenomena in the sedimentary record were in turn modulated by the phase of PDO, as indicated by the change in period of ENSO and suppression of the solar signal in the record after the 1976-1977 regime shift. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

Pleistocene and Holocene glacier fluctuations upon the Kamchatka Peninsula

This review summarises landform records and published age-estimates (largely based upon tephrochronology) to provide an overview of glacier fluctuations upon the Kamchatka Peninsula during the Holocene and, to a lesser degree, earlier phases of glaciation. The evidence suggests that following deglaciation from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the peninsula experienced numerous phases of small-scale glacial advance. During the Late Glacial, moraine sequences appear to reflect the former presence of extensive glaciers in some parts of the peninsula, though little chronological control is available for deposits of this period. During the Holocene, the earliest and most extensive phase of advance likely occurred sometime prior to c. 6.8 ka, when glaciers extended up to 8 km beyond their current margins. However, these deposits lack maximum age constrains, and pre-Holocene ages cannot be discounted. Between c. 6.8 ka and the onset of ‘Neoglaciation’ c. 4.5 ka, there is little evidence of glacial advance upon the peninsula, and this period likely coincides with the Holocene climatic optimum (or ‘hypsithermal’). Since c. 4.5 ka, numerous moraines have been deposited, likely reflecting a series of progressively less extensive phases of ice advance during the Late Holocene. The final stage of notable ice advance occurred during the Little Ice Age (LIA), between c. 1350 and 1850 C.E., when reduced summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere likely coincided with solar activity minima and several strong tropical volcanic eruptions to induce widespread cooling. Following the LIA, glaciers upon the peninsula have generally shown a pattern of retreat, with accelerated mass loss in recent decades. However, a number of prominent climatically and non-climatically controlled glacial advances have also occurred during this period. In general, there is evidence to suggest that millennial scale patterns in the extent and timing of glaciation upon the peninsula (encompassing much of the last glacial period) are governed by the extent of ice sheets in North America. Millennial-to-centennial scale fluctuations of Kamchatkan glaciers (encompassing much of the Holocene) are governed by the location and relative intensity of the Aleutian Low and Siberian High pressure systems. Decadal scale variations in glacier extent and mass balance (particularly since the LIA) are governed by inter-decadal climatic variability over the North Pacific (as reflected by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation), alongside a broader trend of hemispheric warming.

Ion-acoustic supersolitons in plasmas with two-temperature electrons: Boltzmann and kappa distributions

Acoustic supersolitons arise when a plasma model is able to support three consecutive local extrema of the Sagdeev pseudopotential between the undisturbed conditions and an accessible root. This leads to a characteristic electric field signature, where a simple bipolar shape is enriched by subsidiary maxima. Large-amplitude nonlinear acoustic modes are investigated, using a pseudopotential approach, for plasmas containing two-temperature electrons having Boltzmann or kappa distributions, in the presence of cold fluid ions. The existence domains for positive supersolitons are derived in a methodological way, both for structure velocities and amplitudes, in terms of plasma compositional parameters. In addition, typical pseudopotentials, soliton, and electric field profiles have been given to illustrate that positive supersolitons can be found in the whole range of electron distributions from Maxwellian to a very hard nonthermal spectrum in kappa. However, it is found that the parameter ranges that support supersolitons vary significantly over the wide range of kappa considered. VC 2013 AIP Publishing LLC. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4818888]

Rapid rise in Effective Sea-Level in southwest Bangladesh: Its causes and contemporary rates

Evidence is presented from three estuarine tide gauges located in the
Sundarban area of southwest Bangladesh of relative sea level rise
substantially in excess of the generally accepted rates from altimetry, as
well as previous tide-gauge analyses. It is proposed that the difference
arises from the use of relative mean sea level (RMSL) to characterise the
present and future coastal flood hazard, since RMSL can be misleading in
estuaries in which tidal range is changing. Three tide gauges, one located in
the uninhabited mangrove forested area (Sundarban) of southwest
Bangladesh, the others in the densely populated polder zone north of the
present Sundarban, show rates of increase in RMSL ranging from 2.8 mm
a-1 to 8.8 mm a-1. However, these trends in RMSL disguise the fact that high
water levels in the polder zone have been increasing at an average rate of
15.9 mm a-1 and a maximum of 17.2 mm a-1. In an area experiencing tidal
range amplification, RMSL will always underestimate the rise in high water
levels; consequently, as an alternative to RMSL, the use of trends in high
water maxima or ‘Effective Sea Level Rise’ (ESLR) is adopted as a more
strategic parameter to characterise the flooding hazard potential. The rate
of increase in ESLR is shown to be due to a combination of deltaic
subsidence, including sediment compaction, and eustatic sea level rise, but
principally as a result of increased tidal range in estuary channels recently
constricted by embankments. These increases in ESLR have been partially
offset by decreases in fresh water discharge in those estuaries connected
to the Ganges. The recognition of increases of the effective sea level in the
Bangladesh Sundarban, which are substantially greater than increases in
mean sea level, is of the utmost importance to flood management in this
low-lying and densely populated area.

Long-term mass balance of perennial firn and ice in an Alpine cave (Austria):Constraints from radiocarbon-dated wood fragments

Hundsalm ice cave located at 1520 m altitude in a karst region of western Austria contains up to 7-m-thick deposits of snow, firn and congelation ice. Wood fragments exposed in the lower parts of an ice and firn wall were radiocarbon accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) dated. Although the local stratigraphy is complex, the 19 individual dates - the largest currently available radiocarbon dataset for an Alpine ice cave - allow to place constraints on the accumulation and ablation history of the cave ice. Most of the cave was either ice free or contained only a small firn and ice body during the 'Roman Warm Period'; dates of three wood fragments mark the onset of firn and ice build-up in the 6th and 7th century ad. In the central part of the cave, the oldest samples date back to the 13th century and record ice growth coeval with the onset of the 'Little Ice Age'. The majority of the ice and firn deposit, albeit compromised by a disturbed stratigraphy, appears to have been formed during the subsequent centuries, supported by wood samples from the 15th to the 17th century. The oldest wood remains found so far inside the ice is from the end of the Bronze Age and implies that local relics of prehistoric ice may be preserved in this cave. The wood record from Hundsalm ice cave shows parallels to the Alpine glacier history of the last three millennia, for example, the lack of preserved wood remains during periods of known glacier minima, and underscores the potential of firn and ice in karst cavities as a long-term palaeoclimate archive, which has been degrading at an alarming rate in recent years. © The Author(s) 2013.

Further evidence for cryptic north-western refugia in Europe? Mitochondrial phylogeography of the sibling species Pipistrellus pipistrellus and Pipistrellus pygmaeus

The geographic ranges of European plants and animals underwent periods of contraction and re-colonisation during the climatic oscillations of the Pleistocene. The southern Mediterranean peninsulas (Iberian, Italian and Balkan) have been considered the most likely refugia for temperate/warm adapted species. Recent studies however have revealed the existence of extra-Mediterranean refugia, including the existence of cryptic north-west European refugia during the Last Glacial Maxima (24-14.6 kyr BP). In this study we elucidated the phylogeographic history of two sibling bat species, Pipistrellus pipistrellus and P. pygmaeus in their western European range. We sequenced the highly variable mtDNA D-loop for 167 samples of P. pipistrellus (n = 99) and P. pygmaeus (n = 68) and combined our data with published sequences from 331 individuals. Using phylogenetic methodologies we assessed their biogeographic history. Our data support a single eastern European origin for populations of P. pygmaeus s.str., yet multiple splits and origins for populations of P. pipistrellus s.str., including evidence for refugia within refugia and potential cryptic refugia in north western Europe and in the Caucasus. This complex pattern in the distribution of mtDNA haplotypes supports a long history for P. pipistrellus s.str. in Europe, and the hypothesis that species with a broad ecological niche may have adapted and survived outside southern peninsula throughout the LGM.

Turbulent Fluctuations in G-band and K-line Intensities Observed with the Rapid Oscillations in the Solar Atmosphere (ROSA) Instrument

Using the Rapid Oscillation in the Solar Atmosphere (ROSA) instrument at the Dunn Solar Telescope we have found that the spectra of fluctuations of the G-band (cadence 1.05 s) and Ca II K-line (cadence 4.2 s) intensities show correlated fluctuations above white noise out to frequencies beyond 300 mHz and up to 70 mHz, respectively. The noise-corrected G-band spectrum presents a scaling range (Ultra High Frequency “UHF”) for f = 25-100 mHz, with an exponent consistent with the presence of turbulent motions. The UHF power, is concentrated at the locations of magnetic bright points in the intergranular lanes, it is highly intermittent in time and characterized by a positive kurtosis κ. Combining values of G-band and K-line intensities, the UHF power, and κ, reveals two distinct “states” of the internetwork solar atmosphere. State 1, with κ ≍ 6, which includes almost all the data, is characterized by low intensities and low UHF power. State 2, with κ ≍ 3, including a very small fraction of the data, is characterized by high intensities and high UHF power. Superposed epoch analysis shows that for State 1, the K-line intensity presents 3.5 min chromospheric oscillations with maxima occurring 21 s after G-band intensity maxima implying a 150-210 km effective height difference. For State 2, the G-band and K-line intensity maxima are simultaneous, suggesting that in the highly magnetized environment sites of G-band and K-line emission may be spatially close together. Analysis of observations obtained with Hinode/SOT confirm a scaling range in the G-band spectrum up to 53 mHz also consistent with turbulent motions as well as the identification of two distinct states in terms of the H-line intensity and G-band power as functions of G-band intensity.

Dimensions of Suicide Research: Substance misuse in life and death in a 2-year cohort of suicides

Background
While substance misuse is a key risk factor in suicide relatively little is known about the relationship between lifetime misuse and misuse in suicide.

Aim
To examine the relationship between a history of substance misuse and misuse at the time of a suicide.

Method
Linkage of Coroner reports of 403 suicides occurring over two years with associated primary care records. History of substance misuse was defined as alcohol misuse and/or prescription or illicit drug misuse, for which medical help was sought.

Results
With alcohol misuse: 65% of the cohort had previously sought help and 42% were intoxicated at the suicide (with 30% of these seeing their GP in the previous year). With misuse of other substances: 54% of the cohort were tested for blood toxicology (37% of these tested positive) - with positive toxicology defined as an excess of prescription drugs over the therapeutic minima and/or detection of illicit substances. Those tested were more likely to be young and have a history of drug abuse.

Conclusion
Understanding the links between substance misuse and the use of substances in conjunction with the act of suicide is discussed in light of the study results and current pathology and coroner practices.

Atmospheric Concentrations of Alternaria, Cladosporium, Ganoderma and Didymella Spores Monitored in Cork (Ireland) and Worcester (England) During the Summer of 2010

This study represents the first international intercomparison of fungal spore observations since 1990, focusing on atmospheric concentrations of Alternaria, Cladosporium, Ganoderma and Didymella spores. The campaigns were performed at sites located in Cork (Ireland) and Worcester (England) during summer 2010. Observations were made using Hirst-type volumetric spore traps and corresponding optical identification at the genus level by microscope. The measurements at both sites (including meteorological parameters) were compared and contrasted. The relationships between the fungal spore concentrations with selected meteorological parameters were investigated using statistical methods and multivariate regression trees (MRT). The results showed high correlations between the two sites with respect to daily variations. Statistically significant higher spore concentrations for Alternaria, Cladosporium and Ganoderma were monitored at the Worcester site. This result was most likely due to the differences in precipitation and local fungal spore sources at the two sites. Alternaria and Cladosporium reached their maxima a month earlier in Cork than in Worcester, and Didymella with Ganoderma peaked simultaneously with similar diurnal trends found for all the investigated spore types. MRT analysis helped to determine threshold values of the meteorological parameters that exerted most influence on the presence of spores: they were found to vary at the two sites. Our results suggest that the aeromycological profile is quite uniform over the British Isles, but a description of bioaerosols with respect to overall load and daily concentration can be quite diverse although the geographical difference between sites is relatively small. These variations in the concentrations therefore need to be explored at the national level

An analysis of the methyl rotation dynamics in the So (x' A) and T (a A) states of thioacetaldehyde from Pyrolysis jet spectra /

Jet-cooled, laser-induced phosphorescence excitation spectra (LIP) of thioacetaldehyde CH3CHS, CH3CDS, CD3CHS and CD3CDS have been observed over the region 15800 - 17300 cm"^ in a continuous pyrolysis jet. The vibronic band structure of the singlet-triplet n -* n* transition were attributed to the strong coupling of the methyl torsion and aldehydic hydrogen wagging modes . The vibronic peaks have been assigned in terms of two upper electronic state (T^) vibrations; the methyl torsion mode v^g, and the aldehydic hydrogen wagging mode v^^. The electronic origin O^a^ is unequivocally assigned as follows: CH3CHS (16294.9 cm"'' ), CH3CDS (16360.9 cm"'' ), CD3CHS (16299.7 cm"^ ), and CD3CDS (16367.2 cm"'' ). To obtain structural and dynamical information about the two electronic states, potential surfaces V(e,a) for the 6 (methyl torsion) and a (hydrogen wagging) motions were generated by ab initio quantum mechanical calculations with a 6-3 IG* basis in which the structural parameters were fully relaxed. The kinetic energy coefficients BQ(a,e) , B^(a,G) , and the cross coupling term B^(a,e) , were accurately represented as functions of the two active coordinates, a and 9. The calculations reveal that the molecule adopts an eclipsed conformation for the lower Sq electronic state (a=0°,e=0"') with a barrier height to internal rotation of 541.5 cm"^ which is to be compared to 549.8 cm"^ obtained from the microwave experiment. The conformation of the upper T^ electronic state was found to be staggered (a=24 . 68° ,e=-45. 66° ) . The saddle point in the path traced out by the aldehyde wagging motion was calculated to be 175 cm"^ above the equilibrium configuration. The corresponding maxima in the path taken by methyl torsion was found to be 322 cm'\ The small amplitude normal vibrational modes were also calculated to aid in the assignment of the spectra. Torsional-wagging energy manifolds for the two states were derived from the Hamiltonian H(a,e) which was solved variationally using an extended two dimensional Fourier expansion as a basis set. A torsionalinversion band spectrum was derived from the calculated energy levels and Franck-Condon factors, and was compared with the experimental supersonic-jet spectra. Most of the anomalies which were associated with the interpretation of the observed spectrum could be accounted for by the band profiles derived from ab initio SCF calculations. A model describing the jet spectra was derived by scaling the ab initio potential functions. The global least squares fitting generates a triplet state potential which has a minimum at (a=22.38° ,e=-41.08°) . The flatter potential in the scaled model yielded excellent agreement between the observed and calculated frequency intervals.

Some Applications of Markov Additive Processes as Models in Insurance and Financial Mathematics

Cette thèse est principalement constituée de trois articles traitant des processus markoviens additifs, des processus de Lévy et d'applications en finance et en assurance. Le premier chapitre est une introduction aux processus markoviens additifs (PMA), et une présentation du problème de ruine et de notions fondamentales des mathématiques financières. Le deuxième chapitre est essentiellement l'article "Lévy Systems and the Time Value of Ruin for Markov Additive Processes" écrit en collaboration avec Manuel Morales et publié dans la revue European Actuarial Journal. Cet article étudie le problème de ruine pour un processus de risque markovien additif. Une identification de systèmes de Lévy est obtenue et utilisée pour donner une expression de l'espérance de la fonction de pénalité actualisée lorsque le PMA est un processus de Lévy avec changement de régimes. Celle-ci est une généralisation des résultats existant dans la littérature pour les processus de risque de Lévy et les processus de risque markoviens additifs avec sauts "phase-type". Le troisième chapitre contient l'article "On a Generalization of the Expected Discounted Penalty Function to Include Deficits at and Beyond Ruin" qui est soumis pour publication. Cet article présente une extension de l'espérance de la fonction de pénalité actualisée pour un processus subordinateur de risque perturbé par un mouvement brownien. Cette extension contient une série de fonctions escomptée éspérée des minima successives dus aux sauts du processus de risque après la ruine. Celle-ci a des applications importantes en gestion de risque et est utilisée pour déterminer la valeur espérée du capital d'injection actualisé. Finallement, le quatrième chapitre contient l'article "The Minimal entropy martingale measure (MEMM) for a Markov-modulated exponential Lévy model" écrit en collaboration avec Romuald Hervé Momeya et publié dans la revue Asia-Pacific Financial Market. Cet article présente de nouveaux résultats en lien avec le problème de l'incomplétude dans un marché financier où le processus de prix de l'actif risqué est décrit par un modèle exponentiel markovien additif. Ces résultats consistent à charactériser la mesure martingale satisfaisant le critère de l'entropie. Cette mesure est utilisée pour calculer le prix d'une option, ainsi que des portefeuilles de couverture dans un modèle exponentiel de Lévy avec changement de régimes.

Étude des maxima de champs gaussiens corrélés.

Ce mémoire porte sur l’étude des maxima de champs gaussiens. Plus précisément, l’étude portera sur la convergence en loi, la convergence du premier ordre et la convergence du deuxième ordre du maximum d’une collection de variables aléatoires gaussiennes. Les modèles de champs gaussiens présentés sont le modèle i.i.d., le modèle hiérarchique et le champ libre gaussien. Ces champs gaussiens diffèrent par le degré de corrélation entre les variables aléatoires. Le résultat principal de ce mémoire sera que la convergence en probabilité du premier ordre du maximum est la même pour les trois modèles. Quelques résultats de simulations seront présentés afin de corroborer les résultats théoriques obtenus.

Detection of microcalcifications in mammograms using local maxima andadaptive wavelet transform analysis

A method for computer- aided diagnosis of micro calcification clusters in mammograms images presented . Micro calcification clus.eni which are an early sign of bread cancer appear as isolated bright spots in mammograms. Therefore they correspond to local maxima of the image. The local maxima of the image is lint detected and they are ranked according to it higher-order statistical test performed over the sub band domain data