O uso de modelos ocultos de Markov no estudo do fluxo de rios intermitentes

In this work, we present our understanding about the article of Aksoy [1], which uses Markov chains to model the flow of intermittent rivers. Then, we executed an application of his model in order to generate data for intermittent streamflows, based on a data set of Brazilian streams. After that, we build a hidden Markov model as a proposed new approach to the problem of simulation of such flows. We used the Gamma distribution to simulate the increases and decreases in river flows, along with a two-state Markov chain. The motivation for us to use a hidden Markov model comes from the possibility of obtaining the same information that the Aksoy’s model provides, but using a single tool capable of treating the problem as a whole, and not through multiple independent processes

A relação entre desempenho e a forma legal das instituições de microcrédito

This work test the relationship of performance and legal form of microfinance institutions (MFI), in our work MFI can be banks, non-governmental organizations (NGO), cooperatives, non-banks financial institutions (NBFI) or rural banks. We use linear regression model, panel data and variables dummy for the legal forms. Our samples are 243 MFI from all continents, except North America, in the period from 2007 to 2012. We found that bigger MFI generates higher profit, higher returns and higher self-sufficiency rates, so the growing can be a way for consolidation of MFI. For smaller MFI a way can be assimilation or merging with other MFI. Cooperatives, non-bank financial institutions and rural banks can serve more customers, causing greater impact on society, and get higher returns. This suggests the most appropriate legal form for microfinance market can be cooperatives, non-banks financial institutions or rural banks balancing social orientation and profit orientation.

Desempenho de analistas sell-side no mercado de ações brasileiro

The purpose of this study was to analyze the behavior of Sell-Side analysts and analysts propose a classification, considering the performance of the price forecasts and recom- mendations (sell-hold-buy) in the Brazilian stock market. For this, the first step was to analyze the consensus of analysts to understand the importance of this collective interven- tion in the market; the second was to analyze the analysts individually to understand how improve their analysis in time. Third was to understand how are the main methods of ranking used in markets. Finally, propose a form of classification that reflects the previous aspects discussed. To investigate the hypotheses proposed in the study were used linear models for panel to capture elements in time. The data of price forecasts and analyst recommendations individually and consensus, in the period 2005-2013 were obtained from Bloomberg R ○ . The main results were: (i) superior performance of consensus recommen- dations, compared with the individual analyzes; (ii) associating the number of analysts issuing recommendations with improved accuracy allows supposing that this number may be associated with increased consensus strength and hence accuracy; (iii) the anchoring effect of the analysts consensus revisions makes his predictions are biased, overvaluating the assets; (iv) analysts need to have greater caution in times of economic turbulence, noting also foreign markets such as the USA. For these may result changes in bias between optimism and pessimism; (v) effects due to changes in bias, as increased pessimism can cause excessive increase in purchase recommendations number. In this case, analysts can should be more cautious in analysis, mainly for consistency between recommendation and the expected price; (vi) the experience of the analyst with the asset economic sector and the asset contributes to the improvement of forecasts, however, the overall experience showed opposite evidence; (vii) the optimism associated with the overall experience, over time, shows a similar behavior to an excess of confidence, which could cause reduction of accuracy; (viii) the conflicting effect of general experience between the accuracy and the observed return shows evidence that, over time, the analyst has effects similar to the endowment bias on assets, which would result in a conflict analysis of recommendations and forecasts ; (ix) despite the focus on fewer sectors contribute to the quality of accuracy, the same does not occur with the focus on assets. So it is possible that analysts may have economies of scale when cover more assets within the same industry; and finally, (x) was possible to develop a proposal for classification analysts to consider both returns and the consistency of these predictions, called Analysis coefficient. This ranking resulted better results, considering the return / standard deviation.

Caracterização mecânica, térmica e acústica de um compósito que utiliza rejeitos de mármore, granito e EPS para a fabricação de blocos para a construção civil

The use of composite materials for the construction industry has been the subject of numerous scientific papers in Brazil and in the world. One of the factors that motivate this quest is the housing deficit that countries especially the third world face. In Brazil this deficit reaches more than 6.5 million homes, around 12% of all US households . This paper presents a composite that was obtained from waste generated in processes for the production of granite and marble slabs, cement, gypsum, sand, crushed EPS and water. These wastes cause great damage to the environment and are thrown into landfi lls in bulk. The novelty of the work is in the combined study thermal, mechanical and acoustic composite obtained in real situation of rooms that are part of an experimental housing. Many blocks were made from cement compositions, plaster, foam, sand, marb le and / or granite, preliminary tests of mechanical and thermal resistance were made by choosing the most appropriate proportion. Will be given the manufacturing processes and assembly units 500 units 10 x 80 x 28 cm produced for the construction of an ex perimental home. We studied what kind of block and residue, marble or granite, made it more feasible for the intended purpose. The mechanical strength of the produced blocks were above 3.0 MPa. The thermal resistance of the blocks was confirmed by the maxi mum temperature difference between the inner and outer walls of rooms built around 8.0 ° C. The sound absorption for optimal room was around 31%. Demonstrated the feasibility of using the blocks manufactured with composite material proposed for construction.

Fusões e aquisições no Brasil: análise dos efeitos em mercado de capitais

This study investigated the impact caused by events horizontal mergers and acquisitions (M&As) horizontal, in the stock returns of the participating companies and competitors regarding the creation or destruction of value for those firms in Brazil, from 2001 to 2012. For this, first was used the event study methodology to estimate abnormal returns in stock prices; after was conducted an analysis multiple regression. The results of the event study showed that using sub-periods for the data, before and after the crisis period, the effects were different for the target-before negative, after positive. Regarding the acquirer and competitors, the results were constant. For acquirer firms, the returns were close to zero, while for the competitors were negative. Furthermore, the regression results regarding the bidder showed that firms invested in processes of M&As to obtain a further increase its efficiency. Furthermore, this study indicated that the leverage of the bidder plays is important for creating value in acquisitions, when they has a higher Tobin’s Q. The results of target firms showed that a small firm had a better return than large firm did.

Acompanhamento coletivo do crescimento e desenvolvimento infantil: participação de mães/cuidadores

This study aimed to analyze the participation of mothers/caregivers from the perspective of the health care model that directs the collective monitoring of child growth and development. This is an exploratory and descriptive research with qualitative approach, carried out in two Family Health Units located in the city of Natal/RN. Data were collected between August and September 2014, through participant observation and semi-structured interview technique, with mothers of infants seen at follow-up visits collective child growth and development. A total of 13 mothers were included who met the following inclusion criteria: being a mother/caregiver responsible for the care of children who have attended one or more meeting of collective monitoring of child growth and development. Exclusion criteria was established: users outside the area covered by the Health Unit Family and who did not use the National Health System as the primary health care service. For the treatment of the collected material, the content analysis was used, thematic Bardin. The study followed the ethical and legal principles governing the scientific research on human subjects recommended by Resolution nº. 466/2012 of the National Health Council and its realization occurred with the approval of the project in the Research Ethics Committee of the Federal University of Rio Grande do North, which was approved by Opinion Embodied nº. 719 949, of June 27, 2014, and Certificate Presentation of Findings Ethics No 32510514.7.0000.5537. Although not conceptualize theoretically mothers demonstrated that collective consultations of child growth and development are actions aimed at health surveillance model, since most pointed monitoring your child to actions that can be measured. Even with that, it was established the existence of health promotion actions by reporting the exchange of experience and leadership of the subjects in collective action, factor facilitated by the link established between users and professionals and users. In this action there is the induction of permanent horizontal relationship where we seek to combine popular knowledge to scientific knowledge in order to promote the integral care for the child. However, it is still possible to find professionals who directs its assistance only to pathological processes and fail to create comprehensive care alternatives. In addition, there is still embezzlement in multi that should provide care to the child population. This factor may be related to their professional training, and thus an issue that can last for a few years. We conclude that it is necessary to incorporate alternatives and models of care that support overcoming limitations and enhancing the health of the population, involving it in the prospect of a better quality of life and therefore health.

Templo Central da Igreja Evangélica Assembleia de Deus do Natal/RN: um estudo sobre música e educação musical

This study aims to investigate the music and the existing music education in Central Temple of the Evangelical Assembly of God Church of Natal/RN. The research question asks how are the musical practices, teaching and learning music that happens in this place. I used the qualitative approach conducting a case study. The theoretical framework were Arroyo (1999, 2000a, 2000b, 2002), Kraemer (2000), Souza (1996), Souza (2000, 2008, 2009), Green (1997), Queiroz (2004a, 2004b, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2013), Geertz (1989), Nettl (1992) and Merrian (1964). I conducted semi-structured interviews and participant observation with the direction of the music department, teaching coordination, students, teachers, musicians and conductors of the church. The study revealed that the relationship between music and education is beyond just a musical training, there are many relationships established as faith, belief in God and devotion. It was found that the views of musicians and conductors think the music teaching in the church to play in worship and praise God. In the musical training of students, he was working not only musical content; It was understood that music is a mediator of meanings that go beyond experiences and musical practices. The worship of God and the worship featuring musical practices and their effects are direct music classes. The research contributes to reflection and understanding of music and music education happens in the evangelical church and a greater understanding in the relationship between music education and the cultural context where it happens.

Um estudo sobre a variabilidade do vento no nordeste do Brasil através de métodos estatísticos e via modelos dinâmicos de meso e micro escala

The objective of this study was to determine the seasonal and interannual variability and calculate the trends of wind speed in NEB and then validate the mesoscale numerical model for after engage with the microscale numerical model in order to get the wind resource at some locations in the NEB. For this we use two data sets of wind speed (weather stations and anemometric towers) and two dynamic models; one of mesoscale and another of microscale. We use statistical tools to evaluate and validate the data obtained. The simulations of the dynamic mesoscale model were made using data assimilation methods (Newtonian Relaxation and Kalman filter). The main results show: (i) Five homogeneous groups of wind speed in the NEB with higher values in winter and spring and with lower in summer and fall; (ii) The interannual variability of the wind speed in some groups stood out with higher values; (iii) The large-scale circulation modified by the El Niño and La Niña intensified wind speed for the groups with higher values; (iv) The trend analysis showed more significant negative values for G3, G4 and G5 in all seasons and in the annual average; (v) The performance of dynamic mesoscale model showed smaller errors in the locations Paracuru and São João and major errors were observed in Triunfo; (vi) Application of the Kalman filter significantly reduce the systematic errors shown in the simulations of the dynamic mesoscale model; (vii) The wind resource indicate that Paracuru and Triunfo are favorable areas for the generation of energy, and the coupling technique after validation showed better results for Paracuru. We conclude that the objective was achieved, making it possible to identify trends in homogeneous groups of wind behavior, and to evaluate the quality of both simulations with the dynamic model of mesoscale and microscale to answer questions as necessary before planning research projects in Wind-Energy area in the NEB

Intercompreensão de línguas românicas: uma proposta para a leitura literária plurilíngue no ensino fundamental

The developed research aimed to investigate how students behave on elementary school in a plurilingual context, based on Intercomprehension of Romanic Languages with literary texts in the classroom. The theoretical framework prioritizes authors who consider reading literary text as an essential tool to the formation of reading and writing skills for students, such as: Amarilha (1997; 2003; 2007), Resende (1993), Kleiman, (1999), Villardi (1997), Aguiar (1991), Perrone-Moisés (2000), Lajolo (1993), Zilberman (1991), Cosson (2006), Andrade, Melo-Pfeifer, Santos, (2009), Sá; De Carlo; Antoine (2011), Alas Martins (2014), Doyé (2005), Souza, (2013), and others, according to the intercomprehension approach and plurilingualism. We use questionnaires as a methodological resources for this research, and we applied some activities that was developed based on intercomprehension from literary texts which represent three types of Romanic languages (Spanish, French and Italian), in addition to the participant observation in classes with students of the 8th grade from an elementary public school in the city of Natal (RN). The students could read and (inter) understand some texts of classic literature in those Latin languages and also in Portuguese, whose titles include “D. Quixote de la mancha” by Miguel de Cervantes; “O pequeno príncipe” by Antoine de Saint-Exupéry; and “Pinóquio” by Carlo Collodi. The data analysis shows that students understood the lessons with plurilingual texts as something which goes beyond the structure of language teaching, awakening themselves to the knowledge of new languages and cultures, and linguistic diversity as motivation at the time of understanding and literature as transforming element to Citizen formation of students.

Segurança do paciente em terapia intensiva neonatal: identificação e análise de eventos adversos

The patient safety is a major concern in health services for its global dimension, as evidenced by the fragility of care processes that predispose an occurrence of adverse events. These events in a neonatal intensive care unit are considered serious and hazardous to lives of newborns. The present study aimed to identify and analyze adverse events in a neonatal intensive care unit based in Trigger Tool. It is an epidemiological, cross-sectional , exploratory, retrospective study with quantitative, descriptive and analytical approach, performed in 2015 at a school hospital. The sample was not probabilistic, involving 116 newborns who met the eligibility criteria. Data collection was performed by retrospective review of medical records, using a specific kind of "trigger" instrument, composed of sentinel events in neonatology, adapted from the American model used by the Vermont-Oxford Network. Data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The chi-square test for linear trend was used to assess the associations between the variables of interest. The research received a favorable agreement from Ethics Committee of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, under number 1055533, and Presentation Certificate for Ethics Assessment 43894515.6.0000.5537. The results show among investigated newborns, 110 experienced at least one adverse event during their stay, with a total of 391 medical records analyzed and rate of 3.37 events per patient. Prevailed the preterm newborns with low birth weight, from mother who had hypertensive diseases during pregnancy and urinary tract infection. The average hospitalization time was 25 days, associated with hospital-acquired infections events (p = 0.01). Among the identified adverse events stood out the events related to thermoregulation disorders (39.0%), with prevalence of hypothermia (26.0%), followed by health care-related infections (16.4%) and blood glucose disorders, hypoglycemia (9.00%) and hyperglycemia (6.64%). Most of these incidents were classified in categories E and F, which represents that there was damage small proportion. Due to these damages come from the care practice with newborn, 78% were classified as avoidable. There was statistically significant association between the variable birth weight with infections (p = 0.006) as well as peri/intraventricular bleeding (p = 0.02), hypoglycemia (p = 0.021), hyperglycemia (p = 0.001), hyperthermia (p = 0.39) and death (p=0,02). Gestational age was associated with seizures (p = 0.002), hyperglycemia (p=0.017) e hyperthermia (p=0.027). The security institution culture was reported by the health workers as intermediate, even though the number of adverse events found in only one unit of service indicates that there is much to be done. Thus the high rate of adverse events identified in the neonatal intensive care unit reinforces the necessity to elaborate specific preventive strategies for this risk environment.

Segurança do paciente em terapia intensiva neonatal: identificação e análise de eventos adversos

The patient safety is a major concern in health services for its global dimension, as evidenced by the fragility of care processes that predispose an occurrence of adverse events. These events in a neonatal intensive care unit are considered serious and hazardous to lives of newborns. The present study aimed to identify and analyze adverse events in a neonatal intensive care unit based in Trigger Tool. It is an epidemiological, cross-sectional , exploratory, retrospective study with quantitative, descriptive and analytical approach, performed in 2015 at a school hospital. The sample was not probabilistic, involving 116 newborns who met the eligibility criteria. Data collection was performed by retrospective review of medical records, using a specific kind of "trigger" instrument, composed of sentinel events in neonatology, adapted from the American model used by the Vermont-Oxford Network. Data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The chi-square test for linear trend was used to assess the associations between the variables of interest. The research received a favorable agreement from Ethics Committee of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, under number 1055533, and Presentation Certificate for Ethics Assessment 43894515.6.0000.5537. The results show among investigated newborns, 110 experienced at least one adverse event during their stay, with a total of 391 medical records analyzed and rate of 3.37 events per patient. Prevailed the preterm newborns with low birth weight, from mother who had hypertensive diseases during pregnancy and urinary tract infection. The average hospitalization time was 25 days, associated with hospital-acquired infections events (p = 0.01). Among the identified adverse events stood out the events related to thermoregulation disorders (39.0%), with prevalence of hypothermia (26.0%), followed by health care-related infections (16.4%) and blood glucose disorders, hypoglycemia (9.00%) and hyperglycemia (6.64%). Most of these incidents were classified in categories E and F, which represents that there was damage small proportion. Due to these damages come from the care practice with newborn, 78% were classified as avoidable. There was statistically significant association between the variable birth weight with infections (p = 0.006) as well as peri/intraventricular bleeding (p = 0.02), hypoglycemia (p = 0.021), hyperglycemia (p = 0.001), hyperthermia (p = 0.39) and death (p=0,02). Gestational age was associated with seizures (p = 0.002), hyperglycemia (p=0.017) e hyperthermia (p=0.027). The security institution culture was reported by the health workers as intermediate, even though the number of adverse events found in only one unit of service indicates that there is much to be done. Thus the high rate of adverse events identified in the neonatal intensive care unit reinforces the necessity to elaborate specific preventive strategies for this risk environment.

Potencialidade do tratamento eletroquímico oxidativo associado à adsorção para remediação de corantes têxteis

This study aimed to evaluate the potential of oxidative electrochemical treatment coupled with adsorption process using expanded perlite as adsorbent in the removal of textile dyes, Red Remazol and Novacron Blue on synthetic effluent. Dyes and perlite were characterized by thermogravimetry techniques (TG), Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC), Spectroscopy infrared (IR), Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), X-ray diffraction (XRD) and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) techniques. Electrochemical treatments used as anodes, Ti/Pt and Pb/PbO2 under different conditions: 60 minutes, current density 20, 40 e 60 mAcm-2, pH 1, 4.5 e 8 and temperature variation 20, 40 e 60 ºC. In the case of adsorption tests, contact time of 30 minutes for the Remazol Red dye and 20 minutes for Novacron Blue were established, while pH 1, 4.5 e 8, 500 mg adsorbent and temperature variation 20, 40 e 60 ºC were used for both treatments. The results indicated that both treatments, electroxidation/adsorption and the adsorption/electroxidation, were effective for removing color from synthetic solutions. The consumption of electricity allowed to evaluate the applicability of the electrochemical process, providing very acceptable values, which allowed us to estimate the cost. Total organic carbon (TOC) and Gas Chromatography linked mass spectrometer (GC-MS) analyzes were performed, showing that the better combination for removing organic matter is by Pb/PbO2 and perlite. Meanwhile, GC-MS indicated that the by-products formed are benzoic acid, phthalic acid, thiocarbamic acid, benzene, chlorobenzene, phenol-2-ethyl and naphthalene when Remazol Red was degraded. Conversely, aniline, phthalic acid, 1, 6 - dimethylnaphthalene, naphthalene and ion hidroxobenzenosulfonat was detected when Novacron Blue was studied. Analyses obtained through atomic absorption spectrometry showed that there was release of lead in the electrochemical oxidation of analyzes that were performed with the anode Pb/PbO2, but these values are reduced by subjecting the effluent to adsorption analysis. According to these results, sequential techniques electroxidation/adsorption and adsorption/electroxidation are to treat solutions containing dyes.

Potencialidade do tratamento eletroquímico oxidativo associado à adsorção para remediação de corantes têxteis

This study aimed to evaluate the potential of oxidative electrochemical treatment coupled with adsorption process using expanded perlite as adsorbent in the removal of textile dyes, Red Remazol and Novacron Blue on synthetic effluent. Dyes and perlite were characterized by thermogravimetry techniques (TG), Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC), Spectroscopy infrared (IR), Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), X-ray diffraction (XRD) and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) techniques. Electrochemical treatments used as anodes, Ti/Pt and Pb/PbO2 under different conditions: 60 minutes, current density 20, 40 e 60 mAcm-2, pH 1, 4.5 e 8 and temperature variation 20, 40 e 60 ºC. In the case of adsorption tests, contact time of 30 minutes for the Remazol Red dye and 20 minutes for Novacron Blue were established, while pH 1, 4.5 e 8, 500 mg adsorbent and temperature variation 20, 40 e 60 ºC were used for both treatments. The results indicated that both treatments, electroxidation/adsorption and the adsorption/electroxidation, were effective for removing color from synthetic solutions. The consumption of electricity allowed to evaluate the applicability of the electrochemical process, providing very acceptable values, which allowed us to estimate the cost. Total organic carbon (TOC) and Gas Chromatography linked mass spectrometer (GC-MS) analyzes were performed, showing that the better combination for removing organic matter is by Pb/PbO2 and perlite. Meanwhile, GC-MS indicated that the by-products formed are benzoic acid, phthalic acid, thiocarbamic acid, benzene, chlorobenzene, phenol-2-ethyl and naphthalene when Remazol Red was degraded. Conversely, aniline, phthalic acid, 1, 6 - dimethylnaphthalene, naphthalene and ion hidroxobenzenosulfonat was detected when Novacron Blue was studied. Analyses obtained through atomic absorption spectrometry showed that there was release of lead in the electrochemical oxidation of analyzes that were performed with the anode Pb/PbO2, but these values are reduced by subjecting the effluent to adsorption analysis. According to these results, sequential techniques electroxidation/adsorption and adsorption/electroxidation are to treat solutions containing dyes.

Association of the XPD and XRCC3 gene polymorphisms with oral squamous cell carcinoma in a Northeastern Brazilian population: A pilot study

Objective to evaluate the association between XPD and XRCC3 polymorphisms and oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). Design the sample consisted of 54 cases of OSCC and 40 cases of inflammatory fibrous hyperplasia (IFH). Genotypes were determined by the polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) method. Results XPD-Lys/Gln was more common in IFH (n = 28; 70%) than in OSCC (n = 24; 44.4%) (OR: 0.3; p < 0.05). XPD-Gln was more frequent in high-grade lesions (0.48) than in low-grade lesions (0.21) (OR: 3.4; p < 0.05). The Gln/Gln genotype was associated with III and IV clinical stages (OR: 0.07; p < 0.05). XRCC3-Met was more frequent in OSCC (0.49) than in IFH (0.35) (OR: 2.6; p < 0.05). The Met/Met genotype was associated with the presence of metastases (OR: 8.1; p < 0.05) and with III and IV clinical stages (OR: 0.07; p < 0.05). Conclusions in this sample, the frequency of XPD-Gln in IFH suggests that this variant may protect against OSCC. The presence of the XRCC3-Met allele seems to contribute to the development of OSCC, metastases and more advanced stages in these lesions.

Association of the XPD and XRCC3 gene polymorphisms with oral squamous cell carcinoma in a Northeastern Brazilian population: A pilot study

Objective to evaluate the association between XPD and XRCC3 polymorphisms and oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). Design the sample consisted of 54 cases of OSCC and 40 cases of inflammatory fibrous hyperplasia (IFH). Genotypes were determined by the polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) method. Results XPD-Lys/Gln was more common in IFH (n = 28; 70%) than in OSCC (n = 24; 44.4%) (OR: 0.3; p < 0.05). XPD-Gln was more frequent in high-grade lesions (0.48) than in low-grade lesions (0.21) (OR: 3.4; p < 0.05). The Gln/Gln genotype was associated with III and IV clinical stages (OR: 0.07; p < 0.05). XRCC3-Met was more frequent in OSCC (0.49) than in IFH (0.35) (OR: 2.6; p < 0.05). The Met/Met genotype was associated with the presence of metastases (OR: 8.1; p < 0.05) and with III and IV clinical stages (OR: 0.07; p < 0.05). Conclusions in this sample, the frequency of XPD-Gln in IFH suggests that this variant may protect against OSCC. The presence of the XRCC3-Met allele seems to contribute to the development of OSCC, metastases and more advanced stages in these lesions.