Subseasonal extremes of precipitation and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon in a climate-change scenario

Changes to the behaviour of subseasonal precipitation extremes and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon are assessed in this study using pre-industrial and 2 × CO2 integrations of the Hadley Centre coupled model HadCM3, which is able to simulate the monsoon seasonal cycle reasonably. At 2 × CO2, mean summer rainfall increases slightly, especially over central and northern India. The mean intensity of daily precipitation during the monsoon is found to increase, consistent with fewer wet days, and there are increases to heavy rain events beyond changes in the mean alone. The chance of reaching particular thresholds of heavy rainfall is found to approximately double over northern India, increasing the likelihood of damaging floods on a seasonal basis. The local distribution of such projections is uncertain, however, given the large spread in mean monsoon rainfall change and associated extremes amongst even the most recent coupled climate models. The measured increase of the heaviest precipitation events over India is found to be broadly in line with the degree of atmospheric warming and associated increases in specific humidity, lending a degree of predictability to changes in rainfall extremes. Active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon, important particularly due to their effect on agricultural output, are shown to be reasonably represented in HadCM3, in particular with some degree of northward propagation. We note an intensification of both active and break events, particularly when measured against the annual cycle, although there is no suggestion of any change to the duration or likelihood of monsoon breaks. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Using idealized snow forcing to test teleconnections with the Indian summer monsoon in the Hadley Centre GCM

Anomalous heavy snow during winter or spring has long been regarded as a possible precursor of deficient Indian monsoon rainfall during the subsequent summer. However previous work in this field is inconclusive, in terms of the mechanism that communicates snow anomalies to the monsoon summer, and even the region from which snow has the most impact. In this study we explore these issues in coupled and atmosphere-only versions of the Hadley Centre model. A 1050-year control integration of the HadCM3 coupled model, which well represents the seasonal cycle of snow cover over the Eurasian continent, is analysed and shows evidence for weakened monsoons being preceded by strong snow forcing (in the absence of ENSO) over either the Himalaya/Tibetan Plateau or north/west Eurasia regions. However, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of springtime interannual variability in snow depth shows the leading mode to have opposite signs between these two regions, suggesting that competing mechanisms may be possible. To determine the dominant region, ensemble integrations are carried out using HadAM3, the atmospheric component of HadCM3, and a variety of anomalous snow forcing initial conditions obtained from the control integration of the coupled model. Forcings are applied during spring in separate experiments over the Himalaya/Tibetan Plateau and north/west Eurasia regions, in conjunction with climatological SSTs in order to avoid the direct effects of ENSO. With the aid of idealized forcing conditions in sensitivity tests, we demonstrate that forcing from the Himalaya region is dominant in this model via a Blanford-type mechanism involving reduced surface sensible heat and longwave fluxes, reduced heating of the troposphere over the Tibetan Plateau and consequently a reduced meridional tropospheric temperature gradient which weakens the monsoon during early summer. Snow albedo is shown to be key to the mechanism, explaining around 50% of the perturbation in sensible heating over the Tibetan Plateau, and accounting for the majority of cooling through the troposphere.

Introducing improved cultivars: Understanding farmers' seed drying and storage practices in central Ghana

Improved upland rice cultivars introduced in Volta Region, Ghana, have been perceived to store poorly compared to farmers' traditional cultivars. A survey was conducted in 2003 in the Hohoc district of this region, where a participatory Varietal Selection programme had started in 1997, to gain insight into fanners' seed production and storage practices that are likely to affect seed quality in storage. Farmers rated keeping quality (p < 0.001), tolerance to storage pests (p < 0.001), seed quality (p < 0.001) and establishment of their local cultivars Kawomo, Viono and Wuwulili as much better than the improved cultivar IDSA 85. Initial seed moisture content ranged from 12.8 to 18% and germination from 0 to 82%. There was a significant relationship between seed moisture content and duration of drying prior to storage (p < 0.001) and storage method (p = 0.015). Germination loss in storage was rapid at high moisture content and slow at low moisture content. Between 60 and 80% of seeds germinated after six Months storage at 12.8% moisture content. The viability equation predicted accurately germination of farmer-saved seed stored under ambient temperature in Ghana. Except for the japonica rice cultivar WAB 126-18-HB, the traditional cultivars Kawomo, Viono and Wuwulili survived better in storage than improved cultivars. There is a need to improve seed quality of improved cultivars if farmers are to benefit from their higher yields and grain quality and to improve storage practices.

Improving educational functions in botanic gardens by employing landscape narratives

Landscape narrative, combining landscape and narrative, has been employed to create storytelling layouts and interpretive information in some famous botanic gardens. In order to assess the educational effectiveness of using "landscape narrative" in landscape design, the Heng-Chun Tropical Botanical Garden in Taiwan was chosen as research target for an empirical study. Based on cognitive theory and the affective responses of environmental psychology, computer simulations and video recordings were used to create five themed display areas with landscape narrative elements. Two groups of pupils watched simulated films. The pupils were then given an evaluation test and questionnaire, to determine the effectiveness of the landscape narrative. When the content was well associated and matched with the narrative landscape, the comprehension and retention of content was increased significantly. The results also indicated that visual preference of narrative landscape scenes was increased. This empirical study can be regarded as a successful model of integrating landscape narrative and interpretation practice that can be applied to the design of new theme displays in botanic gardens to improve both the effectiveness of interpretation plans and the visual preference of visitors. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Knowledge practices in design: The role of visual representations as 'epistemic objects'

We use a detailed study of the knowledge work around visual representations to draw attention to the multidimensional nature of `objects'. Objects are variously described in the literatures as relatively stable or in flux; as abstract or concrete; and as used within or across practices. We clarify these dimensions, drawing on and extending the literature on boundary objects, and connecting it with work on epistemic and technical objects. In particular, we highlight the epistemic role of objects, using our observations of knowledge work on an architectural design project to show how, in this setting, visual representations are characterized by a `lack' or incompleteness that precipitates unfolding. The conceptual design of a building involves a wide range of technical, social and aesthetic forms of knowledge that need to be developed and aligned. We explore how visual representations are used, and how these are meaningful to different stakeholders, eliciting their distinct contributions. As the project evolves and the drawings change, new issues and needs for knowledge work arise. These objects have an `unfolding ontology' and are constantly in flux, rather than fully formed. We discuss the implications for wider understandings of objects in organizations and for how knowledge work is achieved in practice.

The nature of exhibits about acoustics in Science and Technology centres

This is a study of the opportunities currently provided by interactive science and technology centres for visitors' engagement in the field of acoustics. E-mails, requesting a description of exhibits on acoustics (sound and hearing) in use, were sent to members of staff of interactive science and technology centres around the world as well as to companies that design and sell exhibits. Eighty-seven descriptions of distinctive interactive exhibits were received and analysed. Results show that: there are few analogy-based exhibits concerning the more complex aspects of acoustics; narratives involving visitors' everyday lives, that might provide continuity between and beyond the situations presented by exhibits, are not generally provided; science is emphasised at the expense of technology; the risks, benefits and ethical implications of relevant technological artefacts are rarely mentioned; the majority of the exhibits are concerned with the fields of fundamental acoustics, hearing, and psychoacoustics. It is suggested that interactive science and technology centres need to rethink the design of exhibits about acoustics if their mission includes some appreciation of this important branch of science and technology.