An assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the energy sector in the Caribbean

The present report assesses the economic and social impacts of climate change on the energy sector in Antigua and Barbuda, the Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cuba, Dominica, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago. In the study, the Artificial Neural Network methodology was employed to model the relationship between climate change and energy demand. The viability of the actions proposed were assessed using cost benefit analyses based on models from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) of the United States of America.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Energy Sector in Trinidad and Tobago

The energy sector is a dominant one in Trinidad and Tobago and it plays an important role in the twin-island republic‟s economy. In 2008, the share of the energy sector in gross domestic product (GDP) amounted to approximately 48% while contributing 57% to total Government revenue. In that same year, the sector‟s share of merchandise exports was 88%, made up mainly of refined oil products including petroleum, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids (Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago, 2009). Trinidad and Tobago is the main exporter of oil in the Caribbean region and the main producer of liquefied natural gas in Latin America and the Caribbean. The role of the country‟s energy sector is, therefore, not limited to serving as the engine of growth for the national economy but also includes providing energy security for the small island developing States of the Caribbean. However, with its hydrocarbon-based economy, Trinidad and Tobago is ranked seventh in the world in terms of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita, producing an estimated 40 million tonnes of CO2 annually. Almost 90% of these CO2 emissions are attributed directly to the energy sector through petrochemical production (56%), power generation (30%) and flaring (3%). Trinidad and Tobago is a ratified signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. Although, as a non-Annex 1 country, Trinidad and Tobago is not required to cut its greenhouse gas emissions under the Protocol, it is currently finalizing a climate change policy document as well as a national energy policy with specific strategies to address climate change. The present study complements the climate change policy document by providing an economic analysis of the impact that climate change could have on the energy sector in Trinidad and Tobago under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change alternative climate scenarios (A2 and B2) as compared to a baseline situation of no climate change. Results of analyses indicate that, in the short-run, climate change, represented by change in temperature, is not a significant determinant of domestic consumption of energy, electricity in particular, in Trinidad and Tobago. With energy prices subsidized domestically and fixed for years at a time, energy price does not play a role in determining electricity demand. Economic growth, as indicated by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is the single major determinant of electricity consumption in the short-run. In the long-run, temperature, GDP, and patterns of electricity use, jointly determine electricity consumption. Variations in average annual temperature due to climate change for the A2 scenario are expected to lead to an increase in electricity consumption per capita, equivalent to an annual increase of 1.07% over the 2011 baseline value of electricity consumption per capita. Under the B2 scenario, the average annual increase in electricity consumption per capita over the 2011 baseline value is expected to be 1.01%. The estimated economic impact of climate change on electricity consumption for the period 2011-2050 is valued at US$ 142.88 million under the A2 scenario and US$ 134.83million under the B2 scenario. These economic impact estimates are equivalent to a loss of 0.737% of 2009 GDP under the A2 climate scenario and a loss of 0.695% of 2009 GDP under the B2 scenario. On the energy supply side, sea level rise and storm surges present significant risks to oil installations and infrastructure at the Petroleum Company of Trinidad and Tobago (PETROTRIN) Pointe-a-Pierre facilities (Singh and El Fouladi, 2006). However, data limitations do not permit the conduct of an economic analysis of the impact of projected sea level rise on oil and gas production.

Nonlinear dynamics and control strategies: On a energy harvester vibrating system with a linear form to non-ideal motor torque

In this paper, we deal with the research of a vibrating model of an energy harvester device, including the nonlinearities in the model of the piezoelectric coupling and the non-ideal excitation. We show, using numerical simulations, in the analysis of the dynamic responses, that the harvested power is influenced by non-linear vibrations of the structure. Chaotic behavior was also observed, causing of the loss of energy throughout the simulation time. Using a perturbation technique, we find an approximate analytical solution for the non-ideal system. Then, we apply both two control techniques, to keep the considered system, into a stable condition. Both the State Dependent Ricatti Equation (SDRE) control as the feedback control by changing the energy of the oscillator, were efficient in controlling of the considered non-ideal system.

Effects of railway track vibration induced by passing trains on an energy harvesting device

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEIS

On an energy exchange process and appearance of chaos in a non-ideal portal frame dynamical system

In this paper, we consider non-ideal excitation devices such as DC motors with restrictenergy output capacity. When such motors are attached to structures which needexcitation power levels similar to the source power capacity, jump phenomena and theincrease in power required near resonance characterize the Sommerfeld Effect, actingas a sort of an energy sink. One of the problems often faced by designers of suchstructures is how to drive the system through resonance and avoid this energy sink.Our basic structural model is a simple portal frame driven by a num-ideal powersource-(NIPF). We also investigate the absorption of resonant vibrations (nonlinearand chaotic) by means of a nonlinear sub-structure known as a Nonlinear Energy Sink(NES). An energy exchange process between the NIPF and NES in the passagethrough resonance is investigated, as well the suppression of chaos.

On the energy conversion efficiency in magnetic hyperthermia applications: A new perspective to analyze the departure from the linear regime

The success of magnetic hyperthermia cancer treatments rely strongly on the magnetic properties of the nanoparticles and their intricate dependence on the externally applied field. This is particularly more so as the response departs from the low field linear regime. In this paper we introduce a new parameter, referred to as the efficiency in converting electromagnetic energy into thermal energy, which is shown to be remarkably useful in the analysis of the system response, especially when the power loss is investigated as a function of the applied field amplitude. Using numerical simulations of dynamic hysteresis, through the stochastic Landau-Lifshitz model, we map in detail the efficiency as a function of all relevant parameters of the system and compare the results with simple-yet powerful-predictions based on heuristic arguments about the relaxation time. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4705392]

Impact of long-term moderate hypercapnia and elevated temperature on the energy budget of isolated gills and branchial in vivo and in vitro enzyme capacities of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua)

Effects of severe hypercapnia have been extensively studied in marine fishes, while knowledge on the impacts of moderately elevated CO2 levels and their combination with warming is scarce. Here we investigate ion regulation mechanisms and energy budget in gills from Atlantic cod acclimated long-term to elevated PCO2 levels (2500 µatm) and temperature (18 °C). Isolated perfused gill preparations established to determine gill thermal plasticity during acute exposures (10-22 °C) and in vivo costs of Na+/K+-ATPase activity, protein and RNA synthesis. Maximum enzyme capacities of F1Fo-ATPase, H+-ATPase and Na+/K+-ATPase were measured in vitro in crude gill homogenates. After whole animal acclimation to elevated PCO2 and/or warming, branchial oxygen consumption responded more strongly to acute temperature change. The fractions of gill respiration allocated to protein and RNA synthesis remained unchanged. In gills of fish CO2-exposed at both temperatures, energy turnover associated with Na+/K+-ATPase activity was reduced by 30% below rates of control fish. This contrasted in vitro capacities of Na+/K+-ATPase, which remained unchanged under elevated CO2 at 10 °C, and earlier studies which had found a strong upregulation under severe hypercapnia. F1Fo-ATPase capacities increased in hypercapnic gills at both temperatures, whereas Na+/K+ATPase and H+-ATPase capacities only increased in response to elevated CO2 and warming indicating the absence of thermal compensation under CO2. We conclude that in vivo ion regulatory energy demand is lowered under moderately elevated CO2 levels despite the stronger thermal response of total gill respiration and the upregulation of F1Fo-ATPase. This effect is maintained at elevated temperature.

Cup Anemometer's loss of performance due to ageing process, and its effect on Annual energy Production (AEP) estimates

The deviation of calibration coefficients from five cup anemometer models over time was analyzed. The analysis was based on a series of laboratory calibrations between January 2001 and August 2010. The analysis was performed on two different groups of anemometers: (1) anemometers not used for any industrial purpose (that is, just stored); and (2) anemometers used in different industrial applications (mainly in the field—or outside—applications like wind farms). Results indicate a loss of performance of the studied anemometers over time. In the case of the unused anemometers the degradation shows a clear pattern. In the case of the anemometers used in the field, the data analyzed also suggest a loss of performance, yet the degradation does not show a clear trend. A recalibration schedule is proposed based on the observed performances variations