Application of compositional data analysis to geochemical data of marine sediments

In an earlier investigation (Burger et al., 2000) five sediment cores near the RodriguesTriple Junction in the Indian Ocean were studied applying classical statistical methods(fuzzy c-means clustering, linear mixing model, principal component analysis) for theextraction of endmembers and evaluating the spatial and temporal variation ofgeochemical signals. Three main factors of sedimentation were expected by the marinegeologists: a volcano-genetic, a hydro-hydrothermal and an ultra-basic factor. Thedisplay of fuzzy membership values and/or factor scores versus depth providedconsistent results for two factors only; the ultra-basic component could not beidentified. The reason for this may be that only traditional statistical methods wereapplied, i.e. the untransformed components were used and the cosine-theta coefficient assimilarity measure.During the last decade considerable progress in compositional data analysis was madeand many case studies were published using new tools for exploratory analysis of thesedata. Therefore it makes sense to check if the application of suitable data transformations,reduction of the D-part simplex to two or three factors and visualinterpretation of the factor scores would lead to a revision of earlier results and toanswers to open questions . In this paper we follow the lines of a paper of R. Tolosana-Delgado et al. (2005) starting with a problem-oriented interpretation of the biplotscattergram, extracting compositional factors, ilr-transformation of the components andvisualization of the factor scores in a spatial context: The compositional factors will beplotted versus depth (time) of the core samples in order to facilitate the identification ofthe expected sources of the sedimentary process.Kew words: compositional data analysis, biplot, deep sea sediments

Compositional analysis of bivariate discrete probabilities

A joint distribution of two discrete random variables with finite support can be displayed as a two way table of probabilities adding to one. Assume that this table hasn rows and m columns and all probabilities are non-null. This kind of table can beseen as an element in the simplex of n · m parts. In this context, the marginals areidentified as compositional amalgams, conditionals (rows or columns) as subcompositions. Also, simplicial perturbation appears as Bayes theorem. However, the Euclideanelements of the Aitchison geometry of the simplex can also be translated into the tableof probabilities: subspaces, orthogonal projections, distances.Two important questions are addressed: a) given a table of probabilities, which isthe nearest independent table to the initial one? b) which is the largest orthogonalprojection of a row onto a column? or, equivalently, which is the information in arow explained by a column, thus explaining the interaction? To answer these questionsthree orthogonal decompositions are presented: (1) by columns and a row-wise geometric marginal, (2) by rows and a columnwise geometric marginal, (3) by independenttwo-way tables and fully dependent tables representing row-column interaction. Animportant result is that the nearest independent table is the product of the two (rowand column)-wise geometric marginal tables. A corollary is that, in an independenttable, the geometric marginals conform with the traditional (arithmetic) marginals.These decompositions can be compared with standard log-linear models.Key words: balance, compositional data, simplex, Aitchison geometry, composition,orthonormal basis, arithmetic and geometric marginals, amalgam, dependence measure,contingency table

Intracortical connectivity of layer VI pyramidal neurons in the somatosensory cortex of normal and barrelless mice.

In mice, barrels in layer IV of the somatosensory cortex correspond to the columnar representations of whisker follicles. In barrelless (BRL) mice, barrels are absent, but functionally, a columnar organization persists. Previously we characterized the aberrant geometry of thalamic projection of BRL mice using axonal reconstructions of individual neurons. Here we proceeded with the analysis of the intracortical projections from layer VI pyramidal neurons, to assess their contribution to the columnar organization. From series of tangential sections we reconstructed the axon collaterals of individual layer VI pyramidal neurons in the C2 barrel column that were labelled with biocytin [controls from normal (NOR) strain, 19 cells; BRL strain, nine cells]. Using six morphological parameters in a cluster analysis, we showed that layer VI neurons in NOR mice are distributed into four clusters distinguished by the radial and tangential extent of their intracortical projections. These clusters correlated with the cortical or subcortical projection of the main axon. In BRL mice, neurons were distributed within the same four clusters, but their projections to the granular and supragranular layers were significantly smaller and their tangential projection was less columnar than in NOR mice. However, in both strains the intracortical projections had a preference for the appropriate barrel column (C2), indicating that layer VI pyramidal cells could participate in the functional columnar organization of the barrel cortex. Correlative light and electron microscopy analyses provided morphometric data on the intracortical synaptic boutons and synapses of layer VI pyramidal neurons and revealed that projections to layer IV preferentially target excitatory dendritic spines and shafts.

Strong reproductive barriers in a narrow hybrid zone of West-Mediterranean green toads (Bufo viridis subgroup) with Plio-Pleistocene divergence

Background One key question in evolutionary biology deals with the mode and rate at which reproductive isolation accumulates during allopatric speciation. Little is known about secondary contacts of recently diverged anuran species. Here we conduct a multi-locus field study to investigate a contact zone between two lineages of green toads with an estimated divergence time of 2.7 My, and report results from preliminary experimental crosses. Results The Sicilian endemic Bufo siculus and the Italian mainland-origin B. balearicus form a narrow hybrid zone east of Mt. Etna. Despite bidirectional mtDNA introgression over a ca. 40 km North-South cline, no F1 hybrids could be found, and nuclear genomes display almost no admixture. Populations from each side of the contact zone showed depressed genetic diversity and very strong differentiation (FST = 0.52). Preliminary experimental crosses point to a slightly reduced fitness in F1 hybrids, a strong hybrid breakdown in backcrossed offspring (F1 x parental, with very few reaching metamorphosis) and a complete and early mortality in F2 (F1 x F1). Conclusion Genetic patterns at the contact zone are molded by drift and selection. Local effective sizes are reduced by the geography and history of the contact zone, B. balearicus populations being at the front wave of a recent expansion (late Pleistocene). Selection against hybrids likely results from intrinsic genomic causes (disruption of coadapted sets of genes in backcrosses and F2-hybrids), possibly reinforced by local adaptation (the ranges of the two taxa roughly coincide with the borders of semiarid and arid climates). The absence of F1 in the field might be due to premating isolation mechanisms. Our results, show that these lineages have evolved almost complete reproductive isolation after some 2.7 My of divergence, contrasting sharply with evidence from laboratory experiments that some anuran species may still produce viable F1 offspring after > 20 My of divergence.

Detailed 3D seismic imaging of a fault zone beneath Lake Geneva, Switzerland

An efficient high-resolution (HR) three-dimensional (3D) seismic reflection system for small-scale targets in lacustrine settings was developed. In Lake Geneva, near the city of Lausanne, Switzerland, the offshore extension of a complex fault zone well mapped on land was chosen for testing our system. A preliminary two-dimensional seismic survey indicated structures that include a thin (<40 m) layer of subhorizontal Quaternary sediments that unconformably overlie south-east-dipping Tertiary Molasse beds and a major fault zone (Paudeze Fault Zone) that separates Plateau and Subalpine Molasse (SM) units. A 3D survey was conducted over this test site using a newly developed three-streamer system. It provided high-quality data with a penetration to depths of 300 m below the water bottom of non-aliased signal for dips up to 30degrees and with a maximum vertical resolution of 1.1 m. The data were subjected to a conventional 3D processing sequence that included post-stack time migration. Tests with 3D pre-stack depth migration showed that such techniques can be applied to HR seismic surveys. Delineation of several horizons and fault surfaces reveals the potential for small-scale geologic and tectonic interpretation in three dimensions. Five major seismic facies and their detailed 3D geometries can be distinguished. Three fault surfaces and the top of a molasse surface were mapped in 3D. Analysis of the geometry of these surfaces and their relative orientation suggests that pre-existing structures within the Plateau Molasse (PM) unit influenced later faulting between the Plateau and SM. In particular, a change in strike of the PM bed dip may indicate a fold formed by a regional stress regime, the orientation of which was different from the one responsible for the creation of the Paudeze Fault Zone. This structure might have later influenced the local stress regime and caused the curved shape of the Paudeze Fault in our surveyed area.

The effect of counterpoise correction and relaxation energy term to the internal rotation barriers: application to the BF3 ...NH3 and C2H4 ...SO2 dimers

The relevance of the fragment relaxation energy term and the effect of the basis set superposition error on the geometry of the BF3⋯NH3 and C2H4⋯SO2 van der Waals dimers have been analyzed. Second-order Møller-Plesset perturbation theory calculations with the d95(d,p) basis set have been used to calculate the counterpoise-corrected barrier height for the internal rotations. These barriers have been obtained by relocating the stationary points on the counterpoise-corrected potential energy surface of the processes involved. The fragment relaxation energy can have a large influence on both the intermolecular parameters and barrier height. The counterpoise correction has proved to be important for these systems

Petrology and chemistry of the Chalten Plutonic Complex and implications on the magmatic and tectonic evolution of the Southernmost Andes (Patagonia) during the Miocene

Résumé Scientific:Pétrologie et Géochimie du Complexe Plutonique de Chaltén et les conséquences pour l'évolution magmatique et tectonique du Andes du Sud (Patagonia) pendant le MiocèneLe sujet de cette thèse est le Complexe Plutonique de Chaltén (CHPC), situé à la frontière entre le Chili et l'Argentine, en Patagonie (49°15'S). Ce complexe s'est mis en place au début du Miocène, dans un contexte de changements tectoniques importants. La géométrie et la vitesse de migration des plaques en Patagonie a été modifiée suite l'ouverture de la plaque Farallon il y a 25Ma (Pardo-Casas and Molnar 1987) et la subduction de la ride active du Chili sous la plaque sud-américaine il y a 14Ma (Cande and Leslie 1986). Les effets de cette reconfiguration tectonique sur la morphologie et le magmatisme de la plaque supérieure sont encore sujets à discussion. Dans ce contexte, un groupe d'intrusions miocènes - telle que le CHPC - est particulièrement intriguant, car en position transitionnelle entre le batholithe patagonien et l'arc volcanique cénozoïque et récent à l'ouest, et les laves de plateau de Patagonie à l'est (Fig. 1). A cause de leur position tectonique transitoire, ces plutons isolés hors du batholithe représentent un endroit clé pour comprendre les interactions entre la tectonique à large échelle et le magmatisme en Patagonie. Ici, je présente de nouvelles données de terrain, petrologiques, géochimiques et géochronologiques dans le but de caractériser la nature du CHPC, qui était largement inconnu avant cette étude, dans le but de tester l'hypothèse de migration de l'arc et erosion par subduction.Les résultats de l'investigation géochimique (chapitre 2) montrent que le CHPC n'est qu'un exemple parmi les plutons isolés d'arrière arc ave une composition calco-alcaline caractéristique, c-à-d une signature d'arc. La plupart de ces plutons isolés ont une composition alcaline. Le CHPC, contrairement, a une signature calco-alcaline avec Κ intermédiaire, tel que le batholithe patagonien et la plupart des roches volcaniques quaternaires liées à l'arc le long des Andes.De nouvelles données géochronologiques U-Pb de haute précision sur des zircons, acquis par TIMS, sur le CHPC donnent des âges entre 17.0 et 16.4Ma. Les âges absolus sont en accord avec la séquence intrusive déduite des relations de terrain (chapitre 1). Ces données sont les premières contraintes d'âge U-Pb sur le CHPC. Elles montrent clairement que l'histoire magmatique du CHPC n'a pas de lien direct avec la subduction de la ride à cette latitude (Cande and Leslie 1986), car le complexe est au moins 6Ma plus ancien.Une comparaison en profondeur avec les autres intrusions d'âge Miocène en Patagonie révèlent - pour la première fois - une évolution temporelle intéressante. Il y a une tendance E-W distincte au magmatisme calco-alcalin entre 20-16Ma avec une diminution de l'âge vers l'est - le CHPC est l'expression la plus orientale de cette tendance. Je suggère que la relation espace-temps reflète une migration vers l'est (vers le continent) de l'arc magmatique. Je propose que le facteur principal contrôlant cette migration est la subduction rapide suite à la reconfiguration de la vitesse des plaques tectoniques après l'ouverture la plaque Farallon (à ~26Ma) qui résulterait en une déformation importante ainsi qu'à des taux élevés d'érosion dans la fosse de subduction.Les rapports d'isotopes radiogéniques (Pb, Sr, Nd) élevés, une signature 6018 basse et un rapport Th/La élevé sont des paramètres distinctifs pour les roches mafiques du CHPC. Le modèle isotopique présenté (chapitre 2) suggère que cette signature reflète une contamination de la source, dans le coin de manteau, plutôt qu'une contamination crustale. La signature des éléments en trace du CHPC indiquent que le coin de manteau a été contaminé par des composés terrigènes, le plus vraisemblablement par des sédiments paléozoïques.Les travaux de terrain, la pétrographie et la géothermobarométrie ont été utilisés dans le but de comprendre l'histoire interne du CHPC (chapitre 3). Ces données suggèrent deux niveaux distincts de cristallisation : l'un dans la croûte moyenne (6 à 4.5kbar) et l'autre à un niveau peu profond (3.5 à 2kbar). La modélisation isotopique AFC de la contamination crustale indique des taux variables d'assimilation, qui ne sont pas corrélés avec le degré de différenciation. Cela suggère que différents volumes de magma se sont différenciés en profondeur, de façon indépendante. Cela implique que le CHPC se serait formés en plusieurs puises de magmas provenant d'au moins trois sources différentes. Les textures des granodiorites et des granites indiquent des teneurs élevées en cristaux avant la mise en place et, par conséquent, des températures d'emplacement faibles. Les observations de terrain montrent que les roches mafiques sont déformées, alors que ce n'est pas le cas pour les granodiorites et granites (plus jeunes). La déformation des roches mafiques est encore sujet de recherche, afin de savoir si elle est liée à la déformation régionale en régime compressif ou à l'emplacement lui-même. Cependant, la mise en place de grand volume de magma felsique riche en cristaux suggère un régime d'extension.Scientific Abstract:Petrology and chemistry of the Chaltén Plutonic Complex and implications on the magmatic and tectonic evolution of the Southernmost Andes (Patagonia) during the MioceneThe subject of this thesis is the Chaltén Plutonic Complex (CHPC) located at the frontier between Chile and Argentina in Patagonia (at 49° 15 'Southern latitude). This complex intruded during early Miocene in a context of major tectonics changes. The plate geometry of Patagonia has been modified by changes in the plate motions after the break up of the Farallôn plate at 25Ma (Pardo-Casas and Molnar 1987) and by the subduction of the Chile spreading Ridge beneath South-America at 14 Ma (Cande and Leslie 1986). The effects of this tectonic setting on the morphology and the magmatism of the overriding plate are a matter of on-going discussion. Particularly intriguing in this context is a group of isolated Miocene intrusions - like the CHPC - which are located in a transitional position between the Patagonian Batholith and the Cenozoic and Recent volcanic arc in the West, and the Patagonian plateau lavas in the East (Fig. 1). Due to their transient tectonic position these isolated plutons outside the batholith represent a key to understanding the interaction between global-scale tectonics and magmatism in Patagonia. Here, I present new field, penological, geochemical and geochronological data to characterize the nature of the CHPC, which was largely unknown before this study, in order to test the hypothesis of time- transgressive magmatism.The results of the geochemical investigation (Chapter 2) show that the CHPC is only one among these isolated back-arc plutons with a characteristic calc-alkaline composition, i.e. arc signature. Most of these isolated intrusives have an alkaline character. The CHPC, in contrast, has a medium Κ calc-alkaline signature, like the Patagonian batholith and most of the Quaternary arc-related volcanic rocks along the Andes.New high precision TIMS U-Pb zircon dating of the CHPC yield ages between 17.0 to 16.4 Ma. The absolute ages support the sequence of intrusion relations established in the field (Chapter 1). These data are the first U-Pb age constraints on the CHPC, and clearly show that the magmatic history of CHPC has no direct link to the subduction of the ridge, since this complex is at least 6 Ma older than the time of collision of the Chile ridge at this latitude (Cande and Leslie 1986).An in-depth comparison with other intrusion of Miocene age in Patagonia reveals - for the first time - an interesting temporal pattern. There is a distinct E-W trend of calc-alkaline magmatism between 20-16 Ma with the younging of ages in the East - the CHPC is the easternmost expression of this trend. I suggest that this time-space relation reflects an eastward (landward) migration of the magmatic arc. I propose that main factor controlling this migration is the fast rates of subduction after the major reconfigurations of the plate tectonic motions after the break up of the Farallôn Plate (at -26 ) resulting in strong deformation and high rates of subduction erosion.High radiogenic isotope ratios (Pb, Sr, Nd) ratios, low 5018 signature and high Th/La ratios in mafic rocks are distinctive features of the CHPC. The presented isotopic models (Chapter 2) suggest that this signature reflects source contamination of the mantle wedge rather than crustal contamination. The trace element signature of the CHPC indicates that the mantle wedge was contaminated with a terrigenous component, most likely from Paleozoic sediments.Fieldwork, petrography and geothermobarometry were used to further unravel the internal history of the CHPC (Chapter 3). These data suggest two main levels of crystallization: one a mid crustal levels (6 to 4.5 kbar) and other a shallow level (3.5 to 2 kbar). Isotopic AFC modeling of crustal contamination indicate variable rates of assimilation, which are not correlated with the degree of differentiation. This suggests that different batches of magma differentiate independently at depths. This implies that the CHPC would have formed by several pulses of magmas from at least 3 different sources. Textures of granodiorites and granites indicate a high content of crystals previous to the emplacement and consequently low emplacement temperatures. Field observations show that the mafic rocks are deformed, whereas the (younger) granodiorites and granites are not. It is still subject of investigation whether the deformation of the mafic rocks is related to regional deformation during a compressional regime or to the emplacement it self. However, the emplacement of huge amount of crystal rich felsic magmas suggests an extensional regime.Résumé Grand PublicPétrologie et Géochimie du Complexe Plutonique de Chaltén et les conséquences pour l'évolution magmatique et tectonique du Andes du Sud (Patagonia) pendant le MiocèneLe Complexe Plutonique de Chaltén (CHPC) est un massif montagneux situé à 49°S à la frontière entre le Chili et l'Argentine, en Patagonie (région la plus au sud de l'Amérique du Sud). Il est composé de montagnes qui peuvent atteindre plus de 3000 mètres d'altitude, telles que le Cerro Fitz Roy (3400m) et le Cerro Torre (3100m). Ces montagnes sont composées de roches plutoniques, c.-à-d. des magmas qui se sont refroidis et ont cristallisés sous la surface terrestre.La composition chimique de ces roches montre que les magmas, qui ont formé ce complexe plutonique, font partie d'un volcanisme d'arc. Celui-ci se forme lorsqu'une plaque océanique plonge sous une plaque continentale. Les géologues appellent ce processus « subduction ». Dans un tel scénario, le manteau terrestre, qui se fait prendre entre ces deux plaques, fond pour former ainsi du magma. Ce magma remonte à travers la plaque continentale vers la surface. Si celui-ci atteint la surface, il forme les roches volcaniques, comme par exemple des laves. S'il n'atteint pas la surface, le magma se refroidit pour former finalement les roches plutoniques.Le long de la marge ouest d'Amérique du Sud, la plaque Nazca - qui se situe au sud-est de la plaque océanique pacifique - passe en dessous de la plaque d'Amérique du Sud. La bordure ouest du sud de la plaque sud-américaine a également été affectée par d'autres processus tectoniques, tels que des changements dramatiques dans les déplacements de plaques (il y a 25Ma) et la collision de la ride du Chili (depuis 15 Ma jusqu'à aujourd'hui). Ces caractéristiques tectoniques et magmatiques font de cette région un haut lieu pour les géologues. La plaque Nazca, s'est formée suite à l'ouverture d'une plaque océanique plus ancienne, il y a 25Ma. Cette ouverture est liée aux vitesses de subduction les plus rapides jamais connues. La ride du Chili est l'endroit où le sol de l'Océan Pacifique s'ouvre, formant deux plaques océaniques : les plaques Nazca et Antarctique. La ride du Chili subducte sous la plaque sud-américaine depuis 15Ma, en association avec la formation de grands volumes de magma ainsi que des changements morphologiques importants. La question de savoir lequel de ces changements tectoniques globaux affecte la géologie et la géographie de Patagonie a été, et est encore, discutée pendant de nombreuses années. De nombreux chercheurs suggèrent que la plupart des caractéristiques morphologiques et magmatiques en Patagonie sont liés à la subduction de la ride du Chili, mais cette suggestion est encore débattue comme le montre notre étude.Le batholithe de Patagonie du sud (SPB) est un énorme massif composé de roches plutoniques et il s'étend tout au long de la côte ouest de Patagonie (au sud de 47°S). Ces roches correspondent certainement aux racines d'un ancien arc volcanique, qui a été soulevé et érodé. Le CHPC, ainsi que d'autres petites intrusions dans la région, se situe dans une position exotique, à 100km à l'est du SPB. Certains chercheurs suggèrent que ces intrusions pourraient être liées à la subduction de la ride du Chili.Afin de débattre de cette problématique, nous avons utilisé différentes méthodes géochronologiques pour déterminer l'âge du CHPC et le comparer (a) à l'âge des roches intrusives similaires du SPB et (b) à l'âge de la collision de la ride du Chili. Dans ce travail, nous prouvons que le CHPC s'est formé au moins 7Ma avant la collision avec la ride du Chili. Sur la base des âges du CHPC et de la composition chimique de ses roches et minéraux, nous proposons que le CHPC fait partie d'un arc volcanique ancien. La migration de l'arc volcanique plus profondément dans le continent résulte de la grande vitesse de subduction entre 25 et lOMa. Des caractéristiques évidentes pour un tel processus - telles qu'une déformation importante et une vitesse d'érosion élevée - peuvent être rencontrées tout au long de la bordure ouest de l'Amérique du sud.

A genomic analysis identifies a novel component in the genetic structure of sub-Saharan African populations

Studies of large sets of SNP data have proven to be a powerful tool in the analysis of the genetic structure of human populations. In this work, we analyze genotyping data for 2,841 SNPs in 12 Sub-Saharan African populations, including a previously unsampled region of south-eastern Africa (Mozambique). We show that robust results in a world-wide perspective can be obtained when analyzing only 1,000 SNPs. Our main results both confirm the results of previous studies, and show new and interesting features in Sub-Saharan African genetic complexity. There is a strong differentiation of Nilo-Saharans, much beyond what would be expected by geography. Hunter-gatherer populations (Khoisan and Pygmies) show a clear distinctiveness with very intrinsic Pygmy (and not only Khoisan) genetic features. Populations of the West Africa present an unexpected similarity among them, possibly the result of a population expansion. Finally, we find a strong differentiation of the south-eastern Bantu population from Mozambique, which suggests an assimilation of a pre-Bantu substrate by Bantu speakers in the region.

Quantifying urban attractiveness from the distribution and density of digital footprints

In the past, sensors networks in cities have been limited to fixed sensors, embedded in particular locations, under centralised control. Today, new applications can leverage wireless devices and use them as sensors to create aggregated information. In this paper, we show that the emerging patterns unveiled through the analysis of large sets of aggregated digital footprints can provide novel insights into how people experience the city and into some of the drivers behind these emerging patterns. We particularly explore the capacity to quantify the evolution of the attractiveness of urban space with a case study of in the area of the New York City Waterfalls, a public art project of four man-made waterfalls rising from the New York Harbor. Methods to study the impact of an event of this nature are traditionally based on the collection of static information such as surveys and ticket-based people counts, which allow to generate estimates about visitors’ presence in specific areas over time. In contrast, our contribution makes use of the dynamic data that visitors generate, such as the density and distribution of aggregate phone calls and photos taken in different areas of interest and over time. Our analysis provides novel ways to quantify the impact of a public event on the distribution of visitors and on the evolution of the attractiveness of the points of interest in proximity. This information has potential uses for local authorities, researchers, as well as service providers such as mobile network operators.

Sequential estimation of time-varying multipath channel for MIMO-OFDM systems

In this paper, we introduce a pilot-aided multipath channel estimator for Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (MIMO) Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) systems. Typical estimation algorithms assume the number of multipath components and delays to be known and constant, while theiramplitudes may vary in time. In this work, we focus on the more realistic assumption that also the number of channel taps is unknown and time-varying. The estimation problem arising from this assumption is solved using Random Set Theory (RST), which is a probability theory of finite sets. Due to the lack of a closed form of the optimal filter, a Rao-Blackwellized Particle Filter (RBPF) implementation of the channel estimator is derived. Simulation results demonstrate the estimator effectiveness.

Aitchison Geometry for Probability and Likelihood as a new approach to mathematical statistics

The Aitchison vector space structure for the simplex is generalized to a Hilbert space structure A2(P) for distributions and likelihoods on arbitrary spaces. Centralnotations of statistics, such as Information or Likelihood, can be identified in the algebraical structure of A2(P) and their corresponding notions in compositional data analysis, such as Aitchison distance or centered log ratio transform.In this way very elaborated aspects of mathematical statistics can be understoodeasily in the light of a simple vector space structure and of compositional data analysis. E.g. combination of statistical information such as Bayesian updating,combination of likelihood and robust M-estimation functions are simple additions/perturbations in A2(Pprior). Weighting observations corresponds to a weightedaddition of the corresponding evidence.Likelihood based statistics for general exponential families turns out to have aparticularly easy interpretation in terms of A2(P). Regular exponential families formfinite dimensional linear subspaces of A2(P) and they correspond to finite dimensionalsubspaces formed by their posterior in the dual information space A2(Pprior).The Aitchison norm can identified with mean Fisher information. The closing constant itself is identified with a generalization of the cummulant function and shown to be Kullback Leiblers directed information. Fisher information is the local geometry of the manifold induced by the A2(P) derivative of the Kullback Leibler information and the space A2(P) can therefore be seen as the tangential geometry of statistical inference at the distribution P.The discussion of A2(P) valued random variables, such as estimation functionsor likelihoods, give a further interpretation of Fisher information as the expected squared norm of evidence and a scale free understanding of unbiased reasoning

On prediction of individual sequences

Sequential randomized prediction of an arbitrary binary sequence isinvestigated. No assumption is made on the mechanism of generating the bit sequence. The goal of the predictor is to minimize its relative loss, i.e., to make (almost) as few mistakes as the best ``expert'' in a fixed, possibly infinite, set of experts. We point out a surprising connection between this prediction problem and empirical process theory. First, in the special case of static (memoryless) experts, we completely characterize the minimax relative loss in terms of the maximum of an associated Rademacher process. Then we show general upper and lower bounds on the minimaxrelative loss in terms of the geometry of the class of experts. As main examples, we determine the exact order of magnitude of the minimax relative loss for the class of autoregressive linear predictors and for the class of Markov experts.

The genome of the fire ant Solenopsis invicta.

Ants have evolved very complex societies and are key ecosystem members. Some ants, such as the fire ant Solenopsis invicta, are also major pests. Here, we present a draft genome of S. invicta, assembled from Roche 454 and Illumina sequencing reads obtained from a focal haploid male and his brothers. We used comparative genomic methods to obtain insight into the unique features of the S. invicta genome. For example, we found that this genome harbors four adjacent copies of vitellogenin. A phylogenetic analysis revealed that an ancestral vitellogenin gene first underwent a duplication that was followed by possibly independent duplications of each of the daughter vitellogenins. The vitellogenin genes have undergone subfunctionalization with queen- and worker-specific expression, possibly reflecting differential selection acting on the queen and worker castes. Additionally, we identified more than 400 putative olfactory receptors of which at least 297 are intact. This represents the largest repertoire reported so far in insects. S. invicta also harbors an expansion of a specific family of lipid-processing genes, two putative orthologs to the transformer/feminizer sex differentiation gene, a functional DNA methylation system, and a single putative telomerase ortholog. EST data indicate that this S. invicta telomerase ortholog has at least four spliceforms that differ in their use of two sets of mutually exclusive exons. Some of these and other unique aspects of the fire ant genome are likely linked to the complex social behavior of this species.

How well do individuals predict the selling prices of their homes?

Self-reported home values are widely used as a measure of housing wealth by researchers employing a variety of data sets and studying a number of different individual and household level decisions. The accuracy of this measure is an open empirical question, and requires some type of market assessment of the values reported. In this research, we study the predictive power of self-reported housing wealth when estimating sales prices utilizing the Health and Retirement Study. We find that homeowners, on average, overestimate the value of their properties by between 5% and 10%. More importantly, we are the first to document a strong correlation between accuracy and the economic conditions at the time of the purchase of the property (measured by the prevalent interest rate, the growth of household income, and the growth of median housing prices). While most individuals overestimate the value of their properties, those who bought during more difficult economic times tend to be more accurate, and in some cases even underestimate the value of their house. These results establish a surprisingly strong, likely permanent, and in many cases long-lived, effect of the initial conditions surrounding the purchases of properties, on how individuals value them. This cyclicality of the overestimation of house prices can provide some explanations for the difficulties currently faced by many homeowners, who were expecting large appreciations in home value to rescue them in case of increases in interest rates which could jeopardize their ability to live up to their financial commitments.

Tectonics of the Simplon massif and Lepontine gneiss dome: deformation structures due to collision between the underthrusting European plate and the Adriatic indenter

this study presents a review of published geological data, combined with original observations on the tectonics of the simplon massif and the Lepontine gneiss dome in the Western Alps. New observations concern the geometry of the Oligocene Vanzone back fold, formed under amphibolite facies conditions, and of its root between Domodossola and Locarno, which is cut at an acute angle by the Miocene, epi- to anchizonal, dextral centovalli strike-slip fault. the structures of the simplon massif result from collision over 50 Ma between two plate boundaries with a different geometry: the underthrusted European plate and the Adriatic indenter. Detailed mapping and analysis of a complex structural interference pattern, combined with observations on the metamorphic grade of the superimposed structures and radiometric data, allow a kinematic model to be developed for this zone of oblique continental collision. the following main Alpine tectonic phases and structures may be distinguished: 1. NW-directed nappe emplacement, starting in the Early Eocene (similar to 50 Ma); 2. W, SW and S- verging transverse folds; 3. transpressional movements on the dextral simplon ductile shear zone since similar to 32 Ma; 4. formation of the Bergell - Vanzone backfolds and of the southern steep belt during the Oligocene, emplacement of the mantle derived 31 - 29 Ma Bergell and Biella granodiorites and porphyritic andesites as well as intrusions of 29-25 Ma crustal aplites and pegmatites; 5. formation of the dextral discrete Rhone-Simplon line and the centovalli line during the Miocene, accompanied by the pull-apart development of the Lepontine gneiss dome - Dent blanche (Valpelline) depression. It is suggested that movements of shortening in fan shaped NW, W and sW directions accompanied the more regular NW- to WNW-directed displacement of the Adriatic indenter during continental collision.