O nexo causal entre crédito rural e crescimento do produto agropecuário na economia brasileira

O nexo causal entre desenvolvimento financeiro e crescimento econômico vem ganhando destaque na literatura desde o início dos anos 1990. As principais linhas teóricas nessa área buscam demonstrar qual a significância da relação e o sentido da causalidade, se houver. Causalidade unidirecional no sentido do desenvolvimento financeiro para o crescimento econômico, bicausalidade entre ambos, e causalidade reversa, no sentido do crescimento para o desenvolvimento financeiro, são as principais hipóteses testadas nas pesquisas empíricas. O presente trabalho de tese tem por objetivo avaliar o nexo causal entre crédito (como um indicador do desenvolvimento financeiro) e crescimento no setor agropecuário brasileiro. O crédito rural como proporção do PIB agropecuário cresceu substancialmente desde meados da década de 90, passando de 15,44% em 1996 para 65,24% em 2014. Ao longo do período 1969-2014, a razão média anual entre crédito rural e PIB agropecuário foi de 43,87%. No mesmo período, o produto agropecuário cresceu em média 3,76% ao ano. Questiona-se se no mercado rural o crédito causa o crescimento agropecuário, se ocorre causalidade reversa ou se se opera a hipótese de bicausalidade. Para avaliar o nexo causal entre essas duas variáveis econômica foram empregados quatro procedimentos metodológicos: teste de causalidade de Granger em uma representação VAR com a abordagem de Toda e Yamamoto, teste de causalidade de Granger em um modelo FMOLS (Fully Modified OLS), teste de causalidade de Granger em um modelo ARDL (Autoregressive-Distributed Lag) e teste de causalidade de Granger no domínio da frequência, com o uso do método de Breitung e Candelon. Os resultados mostram de forma uniforme a presença de causalidade unidirecional do crédito rural para o crescimento do produto agropecuário. Causalidade reversa, no sentido do crescimento agropecuário para o crédito rural, não foi detectada de forma significativa em nenhum dos quatro métodos empregados. A não detecção de bicausalidade pode ser uma evidência do impacto da forte política de subsídio governamental ao crédito rural. A decisão do Governo quanto ao montante anual de crédito rural disponível a taxas de juros subsidiadas pode estar impedindo que o desempenho do setor, medido pela sua taxa de crescimento, exerça uma influência significativa na dinâmica do crédito rural. Os resultados também abrem a possibilidade a testar a hipótese de exogeneidade do crédito rural, o que seria uma extensão direta dos resultados obtidos.

Controle cooperativo aplicado a sistemas de posicionamento dinâmico.

Hoje em dia com o crescente aumento da exploração de petróleo e gás em águas profundas, há um aumento na demanda por operações offshore envolvendo a cooperação entre unidades flutuantes. Tais operações requerem um alto nível de planejamento e coordenação, o que na maioria dos casos é feito com a troca de informação no nível de operação, com cada unidade flutuante comandada independentemente. Exemplos de operações deste tipo vão desde operações de alívio passando por operações de instalação de equipamento submarino, até operações de pesquisa envolvendo múltiplas unidades flutuantes dotadas de sistema de posicionamento dinâmico (DP). As vantagens do controle cooperativo surgem com a redução do erro da distância relativa durante a manutenção do posicionamento ou durante a execução de manobras de posicionamento conjuntas. No presente trabalho, os conceitos de controle de consenso são aplicados de forma combinada com o sistema DP de cada navio. A influência dos ganhos do controlador cooperativo no sistema como um todo será discutida, utilizando-se técnicas de análise da resposta em frequência. Simulações completas no domínio do tempo e experimentos usando modelos em escala serão utilizados para se demonstrar o funcionamento do controle cooperativo. Todas as simulações serão conduzidas no simulador Dynasim e os ensaios experimentais no tanque de provas da Engenharia Naval da Escola Politécnica da Universidade de São Paulo. Além disso, serão feitas comparações entre os experimentos em tanque de provas e simulações numéricas equivalentes, demonstrando-se a validade dos ensaios numéricos. Será também demonstrado que os requisitos de projetos adotados são atendidos pelos ensaios em tanque de provas. .

A finite element model of perforated panel absorbers including viscothermal effects

Most of the analytical models devoted to determine the acoustic properties of a rigid perforated panel consider the acoustic impedance of a single hole and then use the porosity to determine the impedance for the whole panel. However, in the case of not homogeneous hole distribution or more complex configurations this approach is no longer valid. This work explores some of these limitations and proposes a finite element methodology that implements the linearized Navier Stokes equations in the frequency domain to analyse the acoustic performance under normal incidence of perforated panel absorbers. Some preliminary results for a homogenous perforated panel show that the sound absorption coefficient derived from the Maa analytical model does not match those from the simulations. These differences are mainly attributed to the finite geometry effect and to the spatial distribution of the perforations for the numerical case. In order to confirm these statements, the acoustic field in the vicinities of the perforations is analysed for a more complex configuration of perforated panel. Additionally, experimental studies are carried out in an impedance tube for the same configuration and then compared to previous methods. The proposed methodology is shown to be in better agreement with the laboratorial measurements than the analytical approach.

3D numerical modelling of acoustic horns using the method of fundamental solutions

In the present work, a three-dimensional (3D) formulation based on the method of fundamental solutions (MFS) is applied to the study of acoustic horns. The implemented model follows and extends previous works that only considered two-dimensional and axisymmetric horn configurations. The more realistic case of 3D acoustic horns with symmetry regarding two orthogonal planes is addressed. The use of the domain decomposition technique with two interconnected sub-regions along a continuity boundary is proposed, allowing for the computation of the sound pressure generated by an acoustic horn installed on a rigid screen. In order to reduce the model discretization requirements for these cases, Green’s functions derived with the image source methodology are adopted, automatically accounting for the presence of symmetry conditions. A strategy for the calculation of an optimal position of the virtual sources used by the MFS to define the solution is also used, leading to improved reliability and flexibility of the proposed method. The responses obtained by the developed model are compared to reference solutions, computed by well-established models based on the boundary element method. Additionally, numerically calculated acoustic parameters, such as directivity and beamwidth, are compared with those evaluated experimentally.

Ultrasonic and X-ray computed tomography characterization of progressive fracture damage in low-porous carbonate rocks

This paper studies the fracturing process in low-porous rocks during uniaxial compressive tests considering the original defects and the new mechanical cracks in the material. For this purpose, five different kinds of rocks have been chosen with carbonate mineralogy and low porosity (lower than 2%). The characterization of the fracture damage is carried out using three different techniques: ultrasounds, mercury porosimetry and X-ray computed tomography. The proposed methodology allows quantifying the evolution of the porous system as well as studying the location of new cracks in the rock samples. Intercrystalline porosity (the smallest pores with pore radius < 1 μm) shows a limited development during loading, disappearing rapidly from the porosimetry curves and it is directly related to the initial plastic behaviour in the stress–strain patterns. However, the biggest pores (corresponding to the cracks) suffer a continuous enlargement until the unstable propagation of fractures. The measured crack initiation stress varies between 0.25 σp and 0.50 σp for marbles and between 0.50 σp and 0.85 σp for micrite limestone. The unstable propagation of cracks is assumed to occur very close to the peak strength. Crack propagation through the sample is completely independent of pre-existing defects (porous bands, stylolites, fractures and veins). The ultrasonic response in the time-domain is less sensitive to the fracture damage than the frequency-domain. P-wave velocity increases during loading test until the beginning of the unstable crack propagation. This increase is higher for marbles (between 15% and 30% from initial vp values) and lower for micrite limestones (between 5% and 10%). When the mechanical cracks propagate unstably, the velocity stops to increase and decreases only when rock damage is very high. Frequency analysis of the ultrasonic signals shows clear changes during the loading process. The spectrum of treated waveforms shows two main frequency peaks centred at low (~ 20 kHz) and high (~ 35 kHz) values. When new fractures appear and grow the amplitude of the high-frequency peak decreases, while that of the low-frequency peak increases. Besides, a slight frequency shift is observed towards higher frequencies.

Parameters of the Earths orbit for the last 5 Million years in 1 kyr resolution

New values for the astronomical parameters of the Earth's orbit and rotation (eccentricity, obliquity and precession) are proposed for paleoclimatic research related to the Late Miocene, the Pliocene and the Quaternary. They have been obtained from a numerical solution of the Lagrangian system of the planetary point masses and from an analytical solution of the Poisson equations of the Earth-Moon system. The analytical expansion developed in this paper allows the direct determination of the main frequencies with their phase and amplitude. Numerical and analytical comparisons with the former astronomical solution BER78 are performed so that the accuracy and the interval of time over which the new solution is valid can be estimated. The corresponding insolation values have also been computed and compared to the former ones. This analysis leads to the conclusion that the new values are expected to be reliable over the last 5 Ma in the time domain and at least over the last 10 Ma in the frequency domain.

Experimental muscle pain changes feedforward postural responses of the trunk muscles

Many studies have identified changes in trunk muscle recruitment in clinical low back pain (LBP). However, due to the heterogeneity of the LBP population these changes have been variable and it has been impossible to identify a cause-effect relationship. Several studies have identified a consistent change in the feed-forward postural response of transversus abdominis (TrA), the deepest abdominal muscle, in association with arm movements in chronic LBP. This study aimed to determine whether the feedforward recruitment of the trunk muscles in a postural task could be altered by acute experimentally induced LBP. Electromyographic (EMG) recordings of the abdominal and paraspinal muscles were made during arm movements in a control trial, following the injection of isotonic (non-painful) and hypertonic (painful) saline into the longissimus muscle at L4, and during a 1-h follow-up. Movements included rapid arm flexion in response to a light and repetitive arm flexion-extension. Temporal and spatial EMG parameters were measured. The onset and amplitude of EMG of most muscles was changed in a variable manner during the period of experimentally induced pain. However, across movement trials and subjects the activation of TrA was consistently reduced in amplitude or delayed. Analyses in the time and frequency domain were used to confirm these findings. The results suggest that acute experimentally induced pain may affect feedforward postural activity of the trunk muscles. Although the response was variable, pain produced differential changes in the motor control of the trunk muscles, with consistent impairment of TrA activity.

Analysis of the free vibration of rectangular plates with central cut-outs using the discrete Ritz method

We present an analysis of the free vibration of plates with internal discontinuities due to central cut-outs. A numerical formulation for a basic L-shaped element which is divided into appropriate sub-domains that are dependent upon the location of the cut-out is used as the basic building element. Trial functions formed to satisfy certain boundary conditions are employed to define the transverse deflection of each sub-domain. Mathematical treatments in terms of the continuities in displacement, slope, moment, and higher derivatives between the adjacent sub-domains are enforced at the interconnecting edges. The energy functional results, from the proper assembly of the coupled strain and kinetic energy contributions of each sub-domain, are minimized via the Ritz procedure to extract the vibration frequencies and. mode shapes of the plates. The procedures are demonstrated by considering plates with central cut-outs that are subjected to two types of boundary conditions. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rainfall variability at decadal and longer time scales: signal or noise?

Rainfall variability occurs over a wide range of temporal scales. Knowledge and understanding of such variability can lead to improved risk management practices in agricultural and other industries. Analyses of temporal patterns in 100 yr of observed monthly global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure data show that the single most important cause of explainable, terrestrial rainfall variability resides within the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) frequency domain (2.5-8.0 yr), followed by a slightly weaker but highly significant decadal signal (9-13 yr), with some evidence of lesser but significant rainfall variability at interclecadal time scales (15-18 yr). Most of the rainfall variability significantly linked to frequencies tower than ENSO occurs in the Australasian region, with smaller effects in North and South America, central and southern Africa, and western Europe. While low-frequency (LF) signals at a decadal frequency are dominant, the variability evident was ENSO-like in all the frequency domains considered. The extent to which such LF variability is (i) predictable and (ii) either part of the overall ENSO variability or caused by independent processes remains an as yet unanswered question. Further progress can only be made through mechanistic studies using a variety of models.

Computational modeling of optical trapping of vaterite microspheres

The ability to grow microscopic spherical birefringent crystals of vaterite, a calcium carbonate mineral, has allowed the development of an optical microrheometer based on optical tweezers. However, since these crystals are birefringent, and worse, are expected to have non-uniform birefringence, computational modeling of the microrheometer is a highly challenging task. Modeling the microrheometer - and optical tweezers in general - typically requires large numbers of repeated calculations for the same trapped particle. This places strong demands on the efficiency of computational methods used. While our usual method of choice for computational modelling of optical tweezers - the T-matrix method - meets this requirement of efficiency, it is restricted to homogeneous isotropic particles. General methods that can model complex structures such as the vaterite particles, such as finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) or finite-difference frequency-domain (FDFD) methods, are inefficient. Therefore, we have developed a hybrid FDFD/T-matrix method that combines the generality of volume-discretisation methods such as FDFD with the efficiency of the T-matrix method. We have used this hybrid method to calculate optical forces and torques on model vaterite spheres in optical traps. We present and compare the results of computational modelling and experimental measurements.

Sviluppo e applicazione di nuovi criteri per la verifica a fatica multiassiale di componenti strutturali in leghe di acciaio e alluminio

La presente Tesi ha per oggetto lo sviluppo e la validazione di nuovi criteri per la verifica a fatica multiassiale di componenti strutturali metallici . In particolare, i nuovi criteri formulati risultano applicabili a componenti metallici, soggetti ad un’ampia gamma di configurazioni di carico: carichi multiassiali variabili nel tempo, in modo ciclico e random, per alto e basso/medio numero di cicli di carico. Tali criteri costituiscono un utile strumento nell’ambito della valutazione della resistenza/vita a fatica di elementi strutturali metallici, essendo di semplice implementazione, e richiedendo tempi di calcolo piuttosto modesti. Nel primo Capitolo vengono presentate le problematiche relative alla fatica multiassiale, introducendo alcuni aspetti teorici utili a descrivere il meccanismo di danneggiamento a fatica (propagazione della fessura e frattura finale) di componenti strutturali metallici soggetti a carichi variabili nel tempo. Vengono poi presentati i diversi approcci disponibili in letteratura per la verifica a fatica multiassiale di tali componenti, con particolare attenzione all'approccio del piano critico. Infine, vengono definite le grandezze ingegneristiche correlate al piano critico, utilizzate nella progettazione a fatica in presenza di carichi multiassiali ciclici per alto e basso/medio numero di cicli di carico. Il secondo Capitolo è dedicato allo sviluppo di un nuovo criterio per la valutazione della resistenza a fatica di elementi strutturali metallici soggetti a carichi multiassiali ciclici e alto numero di cicli. Il criterio risulta basato sull'approccio del piano critico ed è formulato in termini di tensioni. Lo sviluppo del criterio viene affrontato intervenendo in modo significativo su una precedente formulazione proposta da Carpinteri e collaboratori nel 2011. In particolare, il primo intervento riguarda la determinazione della giacitura del piano critico: nuove espressioni dell'angolo che lega la giacitura del piano critico a quella del piano di frattura vengono implementate nell'algoritmo del criterio. Il secondo intervento è relativo alla definizione dell'ampiezza della tensione tangenziale e un nuovo metodo, noto come Prismatic Hull (PH) method (di Araújo e collaboratori), viene implementato nell'algoritmo. L'affidabilità del criterio viene poi verificata impiegando numerosi dati di prove sperimentali disponibili in letteratura. Nel terzo Capitolo viene proposto un criterio di nuova formulazione per la valutazione della vita a fatica di elementi strutturali metallici soggetti a carichi multiassiali ciclici e basso/medio numero di cicli. Il criterio risulta basato sull'approccio del piano critico, ed è formulato in termini di deformazioni. In particolare, la formulazione proposta trae spunto, come impostazione generale, dal criterio di fatica multiassiale in regime di alto numero di cicli discusso nel secondo Capitolo. Poiché in presenza di deformazioni plastiche significative (come quelle caratterizzanti la fatica per basso/medio numero di cicli di carico) è necessario conoscere il valore del coefficiente efficace di Poisson del materiale, vengono impiegate tre differenti strategie. In particolare, tale coefficiente viene calcolato sia per via analitica, che per via numerica, che impiegando un valore costante frequentemente adottato in letteratura. Successivamente, per validarne l'affidabilità vengono impiegati numerosi dati di prove sperimentali disponibili in letteratura; i risultati numerici sono ottenuti al variare del valore del coefficiente efficace di Poisson. Inoltre, al fine di considerare i significativi gradienti tensionali che si verificano in presenza di discontinuità geometriche, come gli intagli, il criterio viene anche esteso al caso dei componenti strutturali intagliati. Il criterio, riformulato implementando il concetto del volume di controllo proposto da Lazzarin e collaboratori, viene utilizzato per stimare la vita a fatica di provini con un severo intaglio a V, realizzati in lega di titanio grado 5. Il quarto Capitolo è rivolto allo sviluppo di un nuovo criterio per la valutazione del danno a fatica di elementi strutturali metallici soggetti a carichi multiassiali random e alto numero di cicli. Il criterio risulta basato sull'approccio del piano critico ed è formulato nel dominio della frequenza. Lo sviluppo del criterio viene affrontato intervenendo in modo significativo su una precedente formulazione proposta da Carpinteri e collaboratori nel 2014. In particolare, l’intervento riguarda la determinazione della giacitura del piano critico, e nuove espressioni dell'angolo che lega la giacitura del piano critico con quella del piano di frattura vengono implementate nell'algoritmo del criterio. Infine, l’affidabilità del criterio viene verificata impiegando numerosi dati di prove sperimentali disponibili in letteratura.

O EFEITO DO CONTROLE RESPIRATÓRIO EM VARIÁVEIS ELETROFISIOLÓGICAS DA ATENÇÃO

A prática do ioga tem se tornado cada vez mais popular, não apenas pelos benefícios físicos, mas principalmente pelo bem-estar psicológico trazido pela sua prática. Um dos componentes do ioga é o Prãnãyama, ou controle da respiração. A atenção e a respiração são dois mecanismos fisiológicos e involuntários requeridos para a execução do Prãnãyama. O principal objetivo desse estudo foi verificar se variáveis contínuas do EEG (potência de diferentes faixas que o compõem) seriam moduladas pelo controle respiratório, comparando-se separadamente as duas fases do ciclo respiratório (inspiração e expiração), na situação de respiração espontânea e controlada. Fizeram parte do estudo 19 sujeitos (7 homens/12 mulheres, idade média de 36,89 e DP = ± 14,46) que foram convidados a participar da pesquisa nas dependências da Faculdade de Saúde da Universidade Metodista de São Paulo. Para o registro do eletroencefalograma foi utilizado um sistema de posicionamento de cinco eletrodos Ag AgCl (FPz, Fz, Cz, Pz e Oz) fixados a uma touca de posicionamento rápido (Quick-Cap, Neuromedical Supplies®), em sistema 10-20. Foram obtidos valores de máxima amplitude de potência (espectro de potência no domínio da frequência) nas frequências teta, alfa e beta e delta e calculada a razão teta/beta nas diferentes fases do ciclo respiratório (inspiração e expiração), separadamente, nas condições de respiração espontânea e de controle respiratório. Para o registro do ciclo respiratório, foi utilizada uma cinta de esforço respiratório M01 (Pletismógrafo). Os resultados mostram diferenças significativas entre as condições de respiração espontânea e de controle com valores das médias da razão teta/beta menores na respiração controlada do que na respiração espontânea e valores de média da potência alfa sempre maiores no controle respiratório. Diferenças significativas foram encontradas na comparação entre inspiração e expiração da respiração controlada com diminuição dos valores das médias da razão teta/beta na inspiração e aumento nos valores das médias da potência alfa, sobretudo na expiração. Os achados deste estudo trazem evidências de que o controle respiratório modula variáveis eletrofisiológicas relativas à atenção refletindo um estado de alerta, porém mais relaxado do que na situação de respiração espontânea.

Autonomic dysfunction in unselected and untreated primary open angle glaucoma patients:A pilot study

Purpose: To investigate the presence of silent cardiac ischaemic episodes and the status of autonomic function in consecutive, newly diagnosed and untreated primary open-angle glaucoma patients. Methods: Twenty-four consecutively diagnosed glaucoma patients and 22 age-matched controls were subjected to ambulatory 24-h blood pressure (BP) and electrocardiogram (ECG) monitoring by using Cardiotens-01 (Meditech Ltd). Based on the ECG recordings, heart rate variability (HRV) frequency domain parameters [low-frequency (LF), high-frequency (HF) and LF/HF ratio] were calculated and analysed in the two study groups. Results: Glaucoma patients demonstrated higher LF and LF/HF values than normal subjects for both the active period (p = 0.020 and 0.029) and the passive period (p = 0.044 and 0.049 respectively). HRV parameters were similar in patients and controls suffering from silent cardiac ischaemia (p > 0.05); however, glaucoma patients with normal ECG demonstrated higher LF and LF/HF values during the active period of the 24-h measurement period than control subjects characterized by the same cardiac activity (p = 0.010 and 0.021 respectively). Conclusion: Independent of a history and/or clinical signs of cardiovascular disease, glaucoma patients exhibit abnormal autonomic function. © 2007 The Authors.

Writing and characterisation methods for UV-photosensitivity based devices and their applications

The underlying work to this thesis focused on the exploitation and investigation of photosensitivity mechanisms in optical fibres and planar waveguides for the fabrication of advanced integrated optical devices for telecoms and sensing applications. One major scope is the improvement of grating fabrication specifications by introducing new writing techniques and the use of advanced characterisation methods for grating testing. For the first time the polarisation control method for advanced grating fabrication has successfully been converted to apodised planar waveguide fabrication and the development of a holographic method for the inscription of chirped gratings at arbitrary wavelength is presented. The latter resulted in the fabrication of gratings for pulse-width suppression and wavelength selection in diode lasers. In co-operation with research partners a number of samples were tested using optical frequency domain and optical low coherence reflectometry for a better insight into the limitations of grating writing techniques. Using a variety of different fabrication methods, custom apodised and chirped fibre Bragg gratings were written for the use as filter elements for multiplexer-demultiplexer devices, as well as for short pulse generation and wavelength selection in telecommunication transmission systems. Long period grating based devices in standard, speciality and tapered fibres are presented, showing great potential for multi-parameter sensing. One particular scope is the development of vectorial curvature and refractive index sensors with potential for medical, chemical and biological sensing. In addition the design of an optically tunable Mach-Zehnder based multiwavelength filter is introduced. The discovery of a Type IA grating type through overexposure of hydrogen loaded standard and Boron-Germanium co-doped fibres strengthened the assumption of UV-photosensitivity being a highly non-linear process. Gratings of this type show a significantly lower thermal sensitivity compared to standard gratings, which makes them useful for sensing applications. An Oxford Lasers copper-vapour laser operating at 255 nm in pulsed mode was used for their inscription, in contrast to previous work using CW-Argon-Ion lasers and contributing to differences in the processes of the photorefractive index change

Electromechanical resonators as measuring transducers

With the increasing use of digital computers for data acquisition and digital process control, frequency domain transducers have become very attractive due to their virtual digital output. Essentially they are electrically maintained oscillators where the sensor is the controlling resonator.They are designed to make the frequency a function of the physical parameter being measured. Because of their high quality factor, mechanical resonators give very good frequency stability and are widely used as sensors. For this work symmetrical mechanical resonators such as the tuning fork were considered, to be the most promising. These are dynamically clamped and can be designed to have extensive regions where no vibrations occur.This enables the resonators to be robustly mounted in a way convenient for various applications. Designs for the measurement of fluid density and tension have been produced. The principle of the design of the resonator for fluid density measurement is a thin gap (trapping a lamina of fluid) between its two members which vibrate in antiphase.An analysis of the inter­ action between this resonator and the fluid lamina has carried out.In gases narrow gaps are needed for a good sensitivity and the use of the material fused quartz, because of its low density and very low temperature coefficient, is ideally suitable. In liquids an adequate sensitivity is achieved even with a wide lamina gap. Practical designs of such transducers have been evolved. The accuracy for liquid measurements is better than 1%. For gases it was found that, in air, a change of atmospheric pressure of 0.3% could be detected. In constructing a tension transducer using such a mechanical sensor as a wire or a beam, major difficulties are encountered in making an efficient clamping arrangement for the sensor. The use of dynamically clamped beams has been found to overcome the problem and this is the basis of the transducer investigated.