La transformación de los grupos armados ilegales en Argelia, un desafío en materia de seguridad y defensa para Francia. (2007-2013)

Este estudio de caso busca evaluar las consecuencias de la transformación de los grupos armados ilegales en Argelia para la seguridad y defensa francesa. Se analiza y explica cómo a raíz del cambio de denominación del GIA al GSPC, y este último al actual AQMI, el gobierno francés ha modificado su perspectiva sobre las amenazas hacia su Estado, conllevando a que las herramientas para la protección de su seguridad nacional presenten cambios con el objetivo de contrarrestar esos nuevos escenarios de inseguridad. Para ello se expondrán autores como Walter Laqueur Mohammed Ayoob y Barry Buzan con el fin de establecer un contexto teórico que permita avanzar hacia el objetivo de esta investigación, el cual se centra en demostrar el cambio de la política de seguridad y defensa de Francia a partir de los grupos armados ilegales en Argelia durante el periodo de 2007 a 2013.

Simón Rodríguez: un pensamiento americano (Dossier: Bicentenario, rastros y revelaciones de la Independencia)

El autor sostiene que Simón Rodríguez se propuso crear un pensamiento americano, que conociera y llegara a resolver los problemas de la región. Estos últimos tenían que ver con la vida social, las instituciones, las conductas e ideas, las perspectivas del pasado y del futuro. Era importante crear una conciencia del “ser social” en América por medio de la Razón, y no basarse en proyectos civilizatorios inspirados en ideas importadas y en la política del exterminio, como los de Andrés Bello y Faustino Sarmiento. Guzmán enfatiza que Rodríguez fue defensor de la república, inspirado en la Revolución francesa y en las utopías sociales europeas, que sus ideas pedagógicas planteaban una instrucción social general, basada en la Razón que proviene del estudio de las cosas, y en una valoración por el trabajo útil. El autor resalta dos nociones de Rodríguez: que sin luces, no habría proyectos propios y los políticos estarían condenados a imitar, y que la realidad podía cambiarse con la unión, el desarrollo de las industrias y el derecho de propiedad, junto a la enseñanza de oficios útiles.

Challenges with minimising mercury pollution in the small-scale gold mining sector: Experiences from the Guianas

This paper examines the barriers to mitigating mercury pollution at small-scale gold mines in the Guianas (Guyana, French Guiana and Suriname), and prescribes recommendations for overcoming these obstacles. Whilst considerable attention has been paid to analysing the environmental impacts of operations in the region, minimal research has been undertaken to identify appropriate policy and educational initiatives for addressing the mounting mercury problem. Findings from recent fieldwork and selected interviews with operators from Guyanese and Surinamese gold mining regions reveal that legislative incapacity, the region's varied industry policy stances, various technological problems, and low environmental awareness on the part of communities are impeding efforts to facilitate improved mercury management at small-scale gold mines in the Guianas. Marked improvements can be achieved, however, if legislation, particularly that pertaining to mercury, is harmonised in the region; educational seminars continue to be held in important mining districts; and additional outlets for disseminating environmental equipment and mercury-free technologies are provided.

The uncertainty of valuation

Valuation is often said to be “an art not a science” but this relates to the techniques employed to calculate value not to the underlying concept itself. Valuation is the process of estimating price in the market place. Yet, such an estimation will be affected by uncertainties. Uncertainty in the comparable information available; uncertainty in the current and future market conditions and uncertainty in the specific inputs for the subject property. These input uncertainties will translate into an uncertainty with the output figure, the valuation. The degree of the uncertainties will vary according to the level of market activity; the more active a market, the more credence will be given to the input information. In the UK at the moment the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) is considering ways in which the uncertainty of the output figure, the valuation, can be conveyed to the use of the valuation, but as yet no definitive view has been taken apart from a single Guidance Note (GN5, RICS 2003) stressing the importance of recognising uncertainty in valuation but not proffering any particular solution. One of the major problems is that Valuation models (in the UK) are based upon comparable information and rely upon single inputs. They are not probability based, yet uncertainty is probability driven. In this paper, we discuss the issues underlying uncertainty in valuations and suggest a probability-based model (using Crystal Ball) to address the shortcomings of the current model.

Discounted cash flow: accounting for uncertainty

Valuation is the process of estimating price. The methods used to determine value attempt to model the thought processes of the market and thus estimate price by reference to observed historic data. This can be done using either an explicit model, that models the worth calculation of the most likely bidder, or an implicit model, that that uses historic data suitably adjusted as a short cut to determine value by reference to previous similar sales. The former is generally referred to as the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model and the latter as the capitalisation (or All Risk Yield) model. However, regardless of the technique used, the valuation will be affected by uncertainties. Uncertainty in the comparable data available; uncertainty in the current and future market conditions and uncertainty in the specific inputs for the subject property. These input uncertainties will translate into an uncertainty with the output figure, the estimate of price. In a previous paper, we have considered the way in which uncertainty is allowed for in the capitalisation model in the UK. In this paper, we extend the analysis to look at the way in which uncertainty can be incorporated into the explicit DCF model. This is done by recognising that the input variables are uncertain and will have a probability distribution pertaining to each of them. Thus buy utilising a probability-based valuation model (using Crystal Ball) it is possible to incorporate uncertainty into the analysis and address the shortcomings of the current model. Although the capitalisation model is discussed, the paper concentrates upon the application of Crystal Ball to the Discounted Cash Flow approach.

The uncertainty of valuation

Valuation is often said to be “an art not a science” but this relates to the techniques employed to calculate value not to the underlying concept itself. Valuation is the process of estimating price in the market place. Yet, such an estimation will be affected by uncertainties. Uncertainty in the comparable information available; uncertainty in the current and future market conditions and uncertainty in the specific inputs for the subject property. These input uncertainties will translate into an uncertainty with the output figure, the valuation. The degree of the uncertainties will vary according to the level of market activity; the more active a market, the more credence will be given to the input information. In the UK at the moment the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) is considering ways in which the uncertainty of the output figure, the valuation, can be conveyed to the use of the valuation, but as yet no definitive view has been taken. One of the major problems is that Valuation models (in the UK) are based upon comparable information and rely upon single inputs. They are not probability based, yet uncertainty is probability driven. In this paper, we discuss the issues underlying uncertainty in valuations and suggest a probability-based model (using Crystal Ball) to address the shortcomings of the current model.

La Francia sotto le bombe degli Alleati 1940-1945

This book chapter outlines the scope and strategies of Allied bombing raids on France between 1940 and 1945, as well as the reactions of the Vichy state, the French people, and the Resistance.

'A hideously difficult country': British propaganda to France in the early Cold War

This article examines British propaganda efforts in the early Cold War in the light of a developing relationship in which the senders' own strategies were to be modified and challenged.The article argues that initiatives to broadcast propaganda from Britain into France via the BBC operated within a broader and developing information policy context. Broadcasting from outside the country through the BBC was supplemented with attempts by British personnel stationed in France to embed positive messages directly within the contemporary French media. By 1950 however, the Britsih propaganda initiative seemed inappropriate and outmoded, taken over by the French themselves and by a British desire to prioritise countries outside Western Europe.

Des liaisons dangereuses? Réseaux donnés, réseaux supposés et réseaux déguisés d’une nonne vénitienne au XVIIe siècle

This article deals with Tarabotti's own family, her religious family within her nunnery and her ideal family, the so-called "République des lettres". Despite her permanent denial about her parents and siblings, she has ties with them all: she benifitted from her sister Camilla's and her mother's wills, she had a friendly relationship with one of her brothers-in-law, she took pity of her two sisters who remained spinsters. The same occurred with her religious family, where she developed close friendships with at least two of them. Moreover, her sisters in religion often belonged to patrician, well-off families and it is possible to argue that Tarabotti managed to expand her relationships with very important people via her sisters in religion. But the family she truly cherished, was her family d'election, the one she had been free to choose and to pursue: her literary family. However, this latter one was not a very recomandable family for a nun: therefore she kept silent with the most relevant elements of it, namely with the French priest and astronomer Ismael Boulliau who acted as the go-between for her last book, published abroad two years after her death. The article provides evidence to such connections, ties and knots, explaining at least in part Tarabotti's extraordinary success in life as a proto-feminist and political writer.

The history of the practice of strategy from Antiquity to Napoleon

This chapter outlines the history of the practice of strategy, predating the introduction of the term. It homes in on episodes of European history since Antiquity for which historians claim to have found evidence of the practice of strategy, defined by Kimberly Kagan as ‘the setting of a state’s objectives and of priorities among those objectives’ in order to allocate resources and choose the best means. While focusing only on Europe, this chapter covers case studies over nearly 2500 ranging from the wars of Ancient Greece, of the Romans to Medieval warfare (here with a focus on English history), the warfare of Philip II of Spain, Louis XIV of France, Frederick II of Prussia, the French Revolutionaries and Napoleon.