Anxiety, Depression, and General Psychological Distress in Patients with Coronary Slow Flow

AbstractBackground:The relationship between psychiatric illness and heart disease has been frequently discussed in the literature. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between anxiety, depression and overall psychological distress, and coronary slow flow (CSF).Methods:In total, 44 patients with CSF and a control group of 50 patients with normal coronary arteries (NCA) were prospectively recruited. Clinical data, admission laboratory parameters, and echocardiographic and angiographic characteristics were recorded. Symptom Checklist 90 Revised (SCL-90-R), Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), and Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI) scales were administered to each patient.Results:The groups were comparable with respect to age, sex, and atherosclerotic risk factors. In the CSF group, BAI score, BDI score, and general symptom index were significantly higher than controls (13 [18.7] vs. 7.5 [7], p = 0.01; 11 [14.7] vs. 6.5 [7], p = 0.01; 1.76 [0.81] vs. 1.1[0.24], p = 0.01; respectively). Patients with CSF in more than one vessel had the highest test scores. In univariate correlation analysis, mean thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) frame counts were positively correlated with BAI (r = 0.56, p = 0.01), BDI (r = 0.47, p = 0.01), and general symptom index (r = 0.65, p = 0.01). The psychiatric tests were not correlated with risk factors for atherosclerosis.Conclusion:Our study revealed higher rates of depression, anxiety, and overall psychological distress in patients with CSF. This conclusion warrants further studies.

Rapid high-performance liquid chromatographic determination with fluorescence detection of furosemide in human body fluids and its confirmation by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry.

Furosemide (FD: Lasix) is a loop diuretic which strongly increases both urine flow and electrolyte urinary excretion. Healthy volunteers were administered 40 mg orally (dissolved in water) and concentrations of FD were determined in serum and urine for up to 6 h for eight subjects, who absorbed water at a rate of 400 ml/h. Quantification was performed by HPLC with fluorescence detection (excitation at 233 nm, emission at 389 nm) with a limit of detection of 5 ng/ml for a 300-microliters sample. The elution of FD was completed within 4 min using a gradient of acetonitrile concentration rising from 30 to 50% in 0.08 M phosphoric acid. The delay to the peak serum concentration ranged from 60 to 120 min. FD was still easily measurable in the sera from all subjects 6 h after administration. In urine, the excretion rates reached their maximum between 1 and 3 h. The total amount of FD excreted in the urine averaged 11.2 mg (range 7.6-14.0 mg), with a mean urine volume of 3024 ml (range 2620-3596 ml). Moreover, the urine density was lower than 1.010 (recommended as an upper limit in doping analysis to screen diuretics) only for 2 h. An additional volunteer was administered 40 mg of FD and his urine was collected over a longer period. FD was still detectable 48 h after intake. Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry with different types of ionization was used to confirm the occurrence of FD after permethylation of the extract. Negative-ion chemical ionization, with ammonia as reactant gas, was found to be the most sensitive method of detection.

Relationship of aerobic fitness and motor skills with memory and attention in preschoolers (Ballabeina): a cross-sectional and longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: The debate about a possible relationship between aerobic fitness and motor skills with cognitive development in children has recently re-emerged, because of the decrease in children's aerobic fitness and the concomitant pressure of schools to enhance cognitive performance. As the literature in young children is scarce, we examined the cross-sectional and longitudinal relationship of aerobic fitness and motor skills with spatial working memory and attention in preschool children. METHODS: Data from 245 ethnically diverse preschool children (mean age: 5.2 (0.6) years, girls: 49.4%) analyzed at baseline and 9 months later. Assessments included aerobic fitness (20 m shuttle run) and motor skills with agility (obstacle course) and dynamic balance (balance beam). Cognitive parameters included spatial working memory (IDS) and attention (KHV-VK). All analyses were adjusted for age, sex, BMI, migration status, parental education, native language and linguistic region. Longitudinal analyses were additionally adjusted for the respective baseline value. RESULTS: In the cross-sectional analysis, aerobic fitness was associated with better attention (r=0.16, p=0.03). A shorter time in the agility test was independently associated with a better performance both in working memory (r=-0.17, p=0.01) and in attention (r=-0.20, p=0.01). In the longitudinal analyses, baseline aerobic fitness was independently related to improvements in attention (r=0.16, p=0.03), while baseline dynamic balance was associated with improvements in working memory (r=0.15, p=0.04). CONCLUSIONS: In young children, higher baseline aerobic fitness and motor skills were related to a better spatial working memory and/or attention at baseline, and to some extent also to their future improvements over the following 9 months. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov NCT00674544.

Line search multilevel optimization as computational methods for dense optical flow

We evaluate the performance of different optimization techniques developed in the context of optical flowcomputation with different variational models. In particular, based on truncated Newton methods (TN) that have been an effective approach for large-scale unconstrained optimization, we develop the use of efficient multilevel schemes for computing the optical flow. More precisely, we evaluate the performance of a standard unidirectional multilevel algorithm - called multiresolution optimization (MR/OPT), to a bidrectional multilevel algorithm - called full multigrid optimization (FMG/OPT). The FMG/OPT algorithm treats the coarse grid correction as an optimization search direction and eventually scales it using a line search. Experimental results on different image sequences using four models of optical flow computation show that the FMG/OPT algorithm outperforms both the TN and MR/OPT algorithms in terms of the computational work and the quality of the optical flow estimation.

New bench test for venous cannula performance assessment.

Cannula design is of prime importance for venous drainage during cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB). To evaluate cannulas intended for CPB, an in vitro circuit was set up with silicone tubing between the test cannula encased in a movable preload reservoir and another static reservoir. The pressure-drop (DeltaP) value (P-drainage - P-preload) was measured using Millar pressure transducers. Flow rate (Q) was measured using an ultrasound flowmeter. Data display and data recording were controlled using a LabView application, custom made particularly for our experiments. Our results demonstrated that DeltaP, Q, and cannula resistance (DeltaP/Q) values were significantly decreased when the cannula diameter was increased for Smart and Medtronic cannulas. Smartcanula showed 36% and 43% less resistance compared to Medtronic venous and Medtronic femoral cannulas, respectively. The cannula shape (straight- or curved-tips) did not affect the DLP cannula resistance. Out of five cannulas tested, the Smartcanula outperforms the other commercially available cannulas. The mean (DeltaP/Q) values were 3.3 +/- 0.08, 4.07 +/- 0.08, 5.58 +/- 0.10, 5.74 +/- 0.15, and 6.45 +/- 0.15 for Smart, Medtronic, Edwards, Sarns, and Gambro cannulas, respectively (two-way ANOVA, p < 0.0001). In conclusion, the present assay allows discrimination between different forms of cannula with high or low lumen resistance.

Comparison of dengue infection in human mononuclear leukocytes with mosquito C6/36 and mammalian Vero cells using flow cytometry to detect virus antigen

Fluorescent activated cell sorter (FACS) analysis is useful for the detection of cellular surface antigens and intracellular proteins. We used this methodology in order to detect and quantify dengue antigens in highly susceptible cells such as clone C6/36 (Aedes albopictus) and Vero cells (green monkey kidney). Additionally, we analyzed the infection in vitro of human peripheral blood mononuclear leukocytes (PBML). FACS analysis turned out to be a reliable technique to quantify virus growth in traditional cell cultures of C6/36 as well as Vero cells. High rates of infection were achieved with a good statistical correlation between the virus amount used in infection and the percentage of dengue antigen containing cells detected in infected cultures. We also showed that human monocytes (CD14+) are preferred target cells for in vitro dengue infection among PBML. Monocytes were much less susceptible to virus infection than cell lines but they displayed dengue antigens detected by FACS five days after infection. In contrast, lymphocytes showed no differences in their profile for dengue specific immunofluorescence. Without an animal model to reproduce dengue disease, alternative assays have been sought to correlate viral virulence with clinical manifestations and disease severity. Study of in vitro interaction of virus and host cells may highlight this relationship.

Hybrid Multiscale Finite Volume method for two-phase flow in porous media

We present a novel hybrid (or multiphysics) algorithm, which couples pore-scale and Darcy descriptions of two-phase flow in porous media. The flow at the pore-scale is described by the Navier?Stokes equations, and the Volume of Fluid (VOF) method is used to model the evolution of the fluid?fluid interface. An extension of the Multiscale Finite Volume (MsFV) method is employed to construct the Darcy-scale problem. First, a set of local interpolators for pressure and velocity is constructed by solving the Navier?Stokes equations; then, a coarse mass-conservation problem is constructed by averaging the pore-scale velocity over the cells of a coarse grid, which act as control volumes; finally, a conservative pore-scale velocity field is reconstructed and used to advect the fluid?fluid interface. The method relies on the localization assumptions used to compute the interpolators (which are quite straightforward extensions of the standard MsFV) and on the postulate that the coarse-scale fluxes are proportional to the coarse-pressure differences. By numerical simulations of two-phase problems, we demonstrate that these assumptions provide hybrid solutions that are in good agreement with reference pore-scale solutions and are able to model the transition from stable to unstable flow regimes. Our hybrid method can naturally take advantage of several adaptive strategies and allows considering pore-scale fluxes only in some regions, while Darcy fluxes are used in the rest of the domain. Moreover, since the method relies on the assumption that the relationship between coarse-scale fluxes and pressure differences is local, it can be used as a numerical tool to investigate the limits of validity of Darcy's law and to understand the link between pore-scale quantities and their corresponding Darcy-scale variables.

Does falls efficacy predict gait performance in high-functioning older people?

Introduction: Falls efficacy, defined as confidence in performing activities without falling, is a measure of fear of falling associated with gait impairment, falls and functional decline in frail older people. This relationship has not been well studied in high-functioning older people. Objective: To evaluate the relationship between falls efficacy and gait performance in a cohort of high-functioning older people. Methods: Subjects (N = 864) were a subsample of communitydwelling older people aged 65 to 70 years, enrolled in the "Lc65+" cohort, who completed gait assessment at baseline. Data were collected on demographics, functional, cognitive, affective, and health status. Falls efficacy was assessed using the Falls Efficacy Scale- International (FES-I) that measures confidence in performing 16 activities of daily life (ADL) without falling (score from 16 to 64, higher score indicates lower confidence). Gait parameters were measured over a 20 m walk at preferred gait speed using Physilog, an ambulatory gait monitoring system. Results: Participants (mean age 68.0 ± 1.4 years, 55.0% women) had excellent physical (92.2% independent in basic ADL, mean gait speed 1.13 ± 0.16 m/sec) and cognitive (98.0% with MMSE 024) performance. Nevertheless, 22.1% reported depressive symptoms and 16.1% one or more fall in the previous year. Mean FES-I score was 18.8 ± 4.1. Falls efficacy was associated with gait speed (Spearman rho -0.23, P <.001) and gait variability (Spearman rho 0.10, P = .006), measured by the coefficient of variation of stride velocity. These associations remained in multivariate analysis for both gait speed (adj [beta] coeff: -0.008, 95%CI -0.005 to -0.010, P <.001) and gait variability (adj [beta] coeff 0.024, 95%CI 0.003 to 0.045, P = .023) independent of gender, falls, functional, affective, cognitive, and frailty (Fried's criteria) status. On average, compared to subjects with poor confidence in performing one ADL without falling, those with full confidence had a 0.02 m/sec (2%) faster gait speed and a 2% decrease in gait variability. Conclusion: Even in high-functioning older people, poor falls efficacy is associated with reduced gait speed and stability, independent of health, functional, and frailty status. The direction of this relationship needs to be investigated prospectively to determine causality and design interventions to improve gait performance, reduce fall risk, and prevent functional decline.

Performance of an ICU ventilator and two turbin-based ventilators dedicated to non invasive ventilation (NIV) in simulated high inspiratory effort and rate: a NIV-bench-study.

INTRODUCTION. The role of turbine-based NIV ventilators (TBV) versus ICU ventilators with NIV mode activated (ICUV) to deliver NIV in case of severe respiratory failure remains debated. OBJECTIVES. To compare the response time and pressurization capacity of TBV and ICUV during simulated NIV with normal and increased respiratory demand, in condition of normal and obstructive respiratory mechanics. METHODS. In a two-chamber lung model, a ventilator simulated normal (P0.1 = 2 mbar, respiratory rate RR = 15/min) or increased (P0.1 = 6 mbar, RR = 25/min) respiratory demand. NIV was simulated by connecting the lung model (compliance 100 ml/mbar; resistance 5 or 20 l/mbar) to a dummy head equipped with a naso-buccal mask. Connections allowed intentional leaks (29 ± 5 % of insufflated volume). Ventilators to test: Servo-i (Maquet), V60 and Vision (Philips Respironics) were connected via a standard circuit to the mask. Applied pressure support levels (PSL) were 7 mbar for normal and 14 mbar for increased demand. Airway pressure and flow were measured in the ventilator circuit and in the simulated airway. Ventilator performance was assessed by determining trigger delay (Td, ms), pressure time product at 300 ms (PTP300, mbar s) and inspiratory tidal volume (VT, ml) and compared by three-way ANOVA for the effect of inspiratory effort, resistance and the ventilator. Differences between ventilators for each condition were tested by oneway ANOVA and contrast (JMP 8.0.1, p\0.05). RESULTS. Inspiratory demand and resistance had a significant effect throughout all comparisons. Ventilator data figure in Table 1 (normal demand) and 2 (increased demand): (a) different from Servo-i, (b) different from V60.CONCLUSION. In this NIV bench study, with leaks, trigger delay was shorter for TBV with normal respiratory demand. By contrast, it was shorter for ICUV when respiratory demand was high. ICUV afforded better pressurization (PTP 300) with increased demand and PSL, particularly with increased resistance. TBV provided a higher inspiratory VT (i.e., downstream from the leaks) with normal demand, and a significantly (although minimally) lower VT with increased demand and PSL.

Copwatching et perception publique de la police. L'intervention policière comme performance sous surveillance

Envisagée comme une situation sociale de rassemblement en rue, l'intervention policière se caractérise par sa nature publique et observable. Le « copwatching », en tant que pratique amateur de captation vidéo des interventions de police, problématise la visibilité des agents sur la voie publique en les soumettant à une surveillance médiatique. M'appuyant sur des exemples vidéos, j'explore les dimensions visuelles et symboliques du travail policier. De la performance policière en rue à la figuration médiatique du policier, l'étude des médiations entre action et image permet d'interroger la perception publique de la police engagée dans les rassemblements. Abstract Cop-watching and the public perception of the police. Police intervention as performance under surveillance. This paper deals with police work as a public performance on the street. Cop-watching, a way of publicly observing and documenting police activities, reveals the complex relationship between public perceptions of law enforcement and the visual nature of much police work. Three methodological approaches to cop-watching videos allow us to highlight the visual dimensions of police work : the study of mass-media images of cops, the study of street performance by real cops, and the study of the ways people make sense of the visual symbolic environment present in everyday police work.

Cytostatic lung perfusion results in heterogeneous spatial regional blood flow and drug distribution: evaluation of different cytostatic lung perfusion techniques in a porcine model.

OBJECTIVES: Comparison of doxorubicin uptake, leakage and spatial regional blood flow, and drug distribution was made for antegrade, retrograde, combined antegrade and retrograde isolated lung perfusion, and pulmonary artery infusion by endovascular inflow occlusion (blood flow occlusion), as opposed to intravenous administration in a porcine model. METHODS: White pigs underwent single-pass lung perfusion with doxorubicin (320 mug/mL), labeled 99mTc-microspheres, and Indian ink. Visual assessment of the ink distribution and perfusion scintigraphy of the perfused lung was performed. 99mTc activity and doxorubicin levels were measured by gamma counting and high-performance liquid chromatography on 15 tissue samples from each perfused lung at predetermined localizations. RESULTS: Overall doxorubicin uptake in the perfused lung was significantly higher (P = .001) and the plasma concentration was significantly lower (P < .0001) after all isolated lung perfusion techniques, compared with intravenous administration, without differences between them. Pulmonary artery infusion (blood flow occlusion) showed an equally high doxorubicin uptake in the perfused lung but a higher systemic leakage than surgical isolated lung perfusion (P < .0001). The geometric coefficients of variation of the doxorubicin lung tissue levels were 175%, 279%, 226%, and 151% for antegrade, retrograde, combined antegrade and retrograde isolated lung perfusion, and pulmonary artery infusion by endovascular inflow occlusion (blood flow occlusion), respectively, compared with 51% for intravenous administration (P = .09). 99mTc activity measurements of the samples paralleled the doxorubicin level measurements, indicating a trend to a more heterogeneous spatial regional blood flow and drug distribution after isolated lung perfusion and blood flow occlusion compared with intravenous administration. CONCLUSIONS: Cytostatic lung perfusion results in a high overall doxorubicin uptake, which is, however, heterogeneously distributed within the perfused lung.

The Network Company in Catalonia : ICT, Productivity, Competitiveness, Salaries and Performance in Catalonia's Companies. Research report (synthesis document)

Resum en anglès del projecte de recerca L'empresa xarxa a Catalunya. TIC, productivitat, competitivitat, salaris i beneficis a l'empresa catalana té com a objectiu principal constatar que la consolidació d'un nou model estratègic, organitzatiu i d'activitat empresarial, vinculat amb la inversió i l'ús de les TIC (o empresa xarxa), modifica substancialment els patrons de comportament dels resultats empresarials, en especial la productivitat, la competitivitat, les retribucions dels treballadors i el benefici. La contrastació empírica de les hipòtesis de treball l'hem feta per mitjà de les dades d'una enquesta a una mostra representativa de 2.038 empreses catalanes. Amb la perspectiva de l'impacte de la inversió i l'ús de les TIC no s'aprecia una relació directa entre els processos d'innovació digital i els resultats de l'activitat de l'empresa catalana. En aquest sentit, hem hagut de segmentar el teixit productiu català per a buscar les organitzacions en què el procés de coinnovació tecnològica digital i organitzativa és més present i en què la intensitat de l'ús del coneixement és un recurs molt freqüent per a poder copsar impactes rellevants en els principals resultats empresarials. Això és així perquè l'economia catalana, avui, presenta una estructura productiva dual.

The allometry of non-employment. What can compositional data analysis tell us about labour market performance across the UK's regions?

The low levels of unemployment recorded in the UK in recent years are widely cited asevidence of the country’s improved economic performance, and the apparent convergence of unemployment rates across the country’s regions used to suggest that the longstanding divide in living standards between the relatively prosperous ‘south’ and the more depressed ‘north’ has been substantially narrowed. Dissenters from theseconclusions have drawn attention to the greatly increased extent of non-employment(around a quarter of the UK’s working age population are not in employment) and themarked regional dimension in its distribution across the country. Amongst these dissenters it is generally agreed that non-employment is concentrated amongst oldermales previously employed in the now very much smaller ‘heavy’ industries (e.g. coal,steel, shipbuilding).This paper uses the tools of compositiona l data analysis to provide a much richer picture of non-employment and one which challenges the conventional analysis wisdom about UK labour market performance as well as the dissenters view of the nature of theproblem. It is shown that, associated with the striking ‘north/south’ divide in nonemployment rates, there is a statistically significant relationship between the size of the non-employment rate and the composition of non-employment. Specifically, it is shown that the share of unemployment in non-employment is negatively correlated with the overall non-employment rate: in regions where the non-employment rate is high the share of unemployment is relatively low. So the unemployment rate is not a very reliable indicator of regional disparities in labour market performance. Even more importantly from a policy viewpoint, a significant positive relationship is found between the size ofthe non-employment rate and the share of those not employed through reason of sicknessor disability and it seems (contrary to the dissenters) that this connection is just as strong for women as it is for men

Loco-regional administration of anticancer agents : isolated lung perfusion with doxorubicin hypoxic abdominal stop-flow perfusion with gemcitabine

SUMMARY Regional drug delivery is an approach designed to improve the selectivity of anticancer chemotherapy. The advantage of regional treatments lies in increasing the drug concentration in the affected organ, while the rest of the organism is spared, thus improving efficacy and limiting treatment toxicity. The goal of this thesis was to assess the distribution throughout the body and the disposition (pharmacokinetics) of two anticancer agents, doxorubicin and gemcitabine, administered by two different regional administration modalities: isolated lung perfusion (ILP) for pulmonary metastases from soft tissue sarcomas and abdominal stop-flow hypoxic perfusion for advanced pancreatic cancers, respectively. For this purpose, two high-performance liquid chromatography methods were developed and validated. The first enabled the determination of doxorubicin in four different biological matrices: serum, reconstituted effluent, tissues with low levels of doxorubicin and tissues with high levels of doxorubicin. The second allows the analysis of gemcitabine and its principal metabolite dFdU in plasma. The administration of doxorubicin by ILP was studied in three preclinical studies (one on pigs and two on rats). It was first shown that, regardless of the administration mode, doxorubicin was not homogeneously distributed throughout the lung and that some regions remained out of reach. Secondly, it was demonstrated that doxorubicin did not adequately reach the tumours despite very high levels found in the lung. Finally, an attempt to enhance the doxorubicin tumoural uptake by pharmacologic modulation using two P-glycoprotein inhibitors, cyclosporin and valspodar, was unsuccessful. The last part of this work involves the administration of gemcitabine by abdominal stop-flow as a part of a phase I clinical trial in patients with advanced pancreatic disease or resistant malignant ascites. The study has demonstrated that the regional exposure to gemcitabine was increased while the exposure of the entire organism was similar to standard intravenous administrations. From a toxicological perspective, the procedure was rather well tolerated. However, even if no clinical response is expected from a phase I study, no hints of clinical responses were unfortunately observed. In conclusion, even if loco-regional therapies may afford the pharmacological advantage of increasing anticancer drug levels at the tumour site, further studies of these investigational treatment modalities are warranted to ascertain whether they can provide a significant improvement of the cancer therapy for patients, in terms of treatment tolerability, improved responses and survival rates. RÉSUMÉ L'administration locorégionale d'agents anticancéreux est une approche destinée à augmenter la sélectivité du traitement. L'avantage des traitements régionaux repose sur le fait que la concentration du médicament cytostatique est augmentée dans l'organe où est localisée la tumeur, alors que le reste de l'organisme est épargné, améliorant ainsi en théorie l'efficacité du traitement et en limitant sa toxicité. Le but de ce travail de thèse avait pour objectif de préciser, la pharmacocinétique au sein de l'organisme de deux agents anticancéreux, la doxorubicine et la gemcitabine, administrés par deux types de perfusions loco-régionales: la perfusion isolée du poumon (ILP) pour les métastases pulmonaires de sarcomes des tissus mous, et la perfusion hypoxique (stop-flow) abdominale pour les cancers avancés du pancréas. Dans cette optique, deux méthodes de chromatographie liquide à haute performance ont été développées et validées. La première permet le dosage de la doxorubicine dans quatre milieux biologiques: le sérum, l'effluent reconstitué, ainsi que des tissus contenant des concentrations faibles et élevées en doxorubicine. La seconde méthode permet le dosage dans le plasma de la gemcitabine et de son principal métabolite, le dFdU. L'administration de doxorubicine par ILP a été étudiée dans trois études précliniques (une chez le porc et deux chez le rat). Il a été montré, dans un premier temps, que la doxorubicine n'était pas distribuée de façon homogène au sein du poumon, quel que soit son mode d'administration. Dans un deuxième temps, il a été démontré que le médicament n'atteignait pas les tumeurs de façon adéquate, malgré des concentrations très élevées au sein du tissu pulmonaire. Finalement, une tentative d'augmenter la pénétration tumorale de la doxorubicine par une modulation pharmacologique de la P-glycoprotéine en utilisant la cyclosporine et le valspodar n'a pas abouti. La dernière partie de ce travail concernait l'administration de gemcitabine par stop-flow abdominal dans le cadre d'une étude clinique de phase I menée auprès de patients atteints de cancers avancés du pancréas ou d'ascites malignes réfractaires. Cette étude a démontré que l'exposition régionale à la gemcitabine était augmentée, alors que l'exposition de l'organisme était similaire à une administration de dose standard par voie intraveineuse. D'un point de vue toxicologique la procédure fut relativement bien tolérée. Cependant, même s'il n'est pas attendu de réponses cliniques dans une étude de phase I, aucun signe de réponse au traitement n'a pu être malheureusement observé. En conclusion, même si les thérapies loco-régionales présentent -en théorie- l'avantage pharmacologique d'augmenter les taux du médicaments anticancéreux sur le site de la tumeur, d'autres études précliniques et cliniques sont nécessaires pour démontrer que ces nouvelles modalités de traitement, de nature investigationelle à présent, apportent une réelle amélioration pour la prise en charge des patients cancéreux, en terme de tolérance au traitement et de l'augmentation des taux de réponses et de survie.

Spatial relationship between the atmospheric circulation and the precipitation measured in the western Swiss Alps by means of the analogue method

An adaptation technique based on the synoptic atmospheric circulation to forecast local precipitation, namely the analogue method, has been implemented for the western Swiss Alps. During the calibration procedure, relevance maps were established for the geopotential height data. These maps highlight the locations were the synoptic circulation was found of interest for the precipitation forecasting at two rain gauge stations (Binn and Les Marécottes) that are located both in the alpine Rhône catchment, at a distance of about 100 km from each other. These two stations are sensitive to different atmospheric circulations. We have observed that the most relevant data for the analogue method can be found where specific atmospheric circulation patterns appear concomitantly with heavy precipitation events. Those skilled regions are coherent with the atmospheric flows illustrated, for example, by means of the back trajectories of air masses. Indeed, the circulation recurrently diverges from the climatology during days with strong precipitation on the southern part of the alpine Rhône catchment. We have found that for over 152 days with precipitation amount above 50 mm at the Binn station, only 3 did not show a trajectory of a southerly flow, meaning that such a circulation was present for 98% of the events. Time evolution of the relevance maps confirms that the atmospheric circulation variables have significantly better forecasting skills close to the precipitation period, and that it seems pointless for the analogue method to consider circulation information days before a precipitation event as a primary predictor. Even though the occurrence of some critical circulation patterns leading to heavy precipitation events can be detected by precursors at remote locations and 1 week ahead (Grazzini, 2007; Martius et al., 2008), time extrapolation by the analogue method seems to be rather poor. This would suggest, in accordance with previous studies (Obled et al., 2002; Bontron and Obled, 2005), that time extrapolation should be done by the Global Circulation Model, which can process atmospheric variables that can be used by the adaptation method.