ASSESSING THE UNRELIABILITY OF THE MEDICAL LITERATURE: A RESPONSE TO "WHY MOST PUBLISHED RESEARCH FINDINGS ARE FALSE"

A recent article in this journal (Ioannidis JP (2005) Why most published research findings are false. PLoS Med 2: e124) argued that more than half of published research findings in the medical literature are false. In this commentary, we examine the structure of that argument, and show that it has three basic components: 1)An assumption that the prior probability of most hypotheses explored in medical research is below 50%. 2)Dichotomization of P-values at the 0.05 level and introduction of a “bias” factor (produced by significance-seeking), the combination of which severely weakens the evidence provided by every design. 3)Use of Bayes theorem to show that, in the face of weak evidence, hypotheses with low prior probabilities cannot have posterior probabilities over 50%. Thus, the claim is based on a priori assumptions that most tested hypotheses are likely to be false, and then the inferential model used makes it impossible for evidence from any study to overcome this handicap. We focus largely on step (2), explaining how the combination of dichotomization and “bias” dilutes experimental evidence, and showing how this dilution leads inevitably to the stated conclusion. We also demonstrate a fallacy in another important component of the argument –that papers in “hot” fields are more likely to produce false findings. We agree with the paper’s conclusions and recommendations that many medical research findings are less definitive than readers suspect, that P-values are widely misinterpreted, that bias of various forms is widespread, that multiple approaches are needed to prevent the literature from being systematically biased and the need for more data on the prevalence of false claims. But calculating the unreliability of the medical research literature, in whole or in part, requires more empirical evidence and different inferential models than were used. The claim that “most research findings are false for most research designs and for most fields” must be considered as yet unproven.

Tie2 receptor expression and phosphorylation in cultured cells and mouse tissues

Accumulating experimental evidence indicates that endothelial cell growth and blood vessel morphogenesis are processes that are governed by the activity of specifically expressed receptor tyrosine kinases (RTKs). We have used two new rat monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) to study the expression and phosphorylation of one such receptor, mouse Tie2 (tyrosine kinase that contains immunoglobulin-like loops and epidermal-growth-factor-similar domains 2]), in transfected cells, endothelioma cell lines and mouse tissues. The Tie2 receptor was found to be constitutively autophosphorylated when over-expressed in COS7 cells. In contrast, the endogenous Tie2 protein was not phosphorylated in endothelioma cell lines. However, in these cell lines, Tie2 could be induced to become tyrosine phosphorylated, and this activation was found to be independent of Tie1. Studying Tie2 receptor activity during angiogenesis in mouse development, the receptor was only weakly phosphorylated in the early postnatal mouse brain whereas a stronger activation could be detected in mouse embryos at day 10.5 post coitum.

[High altitude pulmonary edema. An experiment of nature to study the underlying mechanisms of hypoxic pulmonary hypertension and pulmonary edema in humans]

High altitude constitutes an exciting natural laboratory for medical research. Over the past decade, it has become clear that the results of high-altitude research may have important implications not only for the understanding of diseases in the millions of people living permanently at high altitude, but also for the treatment of hypoxemia-related disease states in patients living at low altitude. High-altitude pulmonary edema (HAPE) is a life-threatening condition occurring in predisposed, but otherwise healthy subjects, and, therefore, allows to study underlying mechanisms of pulmonary edema in humans, in the absence of confounding factors. Over the past decade, evidence has accumulated that HAPE results from the conjunction of two major defects, augmented alveolar fluid flooding resulting from exaggerated hypoxic pulmonary hypertension, and impaired alveolar fluid clearance related to defective respiratory transepithelial sodium transport. Here, after a brief presentation of the clinical features of HAPE, we review this novel concept. We provide experimental evidence for the novel concept that impaired pulmonary endothelial and epithelial nitric oxide synthesis and/or bioavailability may represent the central underlying defect predisposing to exaggerated hypoxic pulmonary vasoconstriction and alveolar fluid flooding. We demonstrate that exaggerated pulmonary hypertension, while possibly a condition sine qua non, may not be sufficient to cause HAPE, and how defective alveolar fluid clearance may represent a second important pathogenic mechanism. Finally, we outline how this insight gained from studies in HAPE may be translated into the management of hypoxemia related disease states in general.

Interactions of nanoparticles with pulmonary structures and cellular responses

Combustion-derived and synthetic nano-sized particles (NSP) have gained considerable interest among pulmonary researchers and clinicians for two main reasons: 1) Inhalation exposure to combustion-derived NSP was associated with increased pulmonary and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality as suggested by epidemiological studies. Experimental evidence has provided a mechanistic picture of the adverse health effects associated with inhalation of combustion-derived and synthetic NSP. 2) The toxicological potential of NSP contrasts with the potential application of synthetic NSP in technological as well as medicinal settings with the latter including the use of NSP as diagnostics or therapeutics. In order to shed light on this paradox, this article aims to highlight recent findings about the interaction of inhaled NSP with the structures of the respiratory tract including surfactant and alveolar macrophages and epithelial cells. Cellular responses to NSP exposure include the generation of reactive oxygen species and the induction of an inflammatory response. Furthermore, this review places special emphasis on methodological differences between experimental studies and the caveats associated with the dose metrics and points out ways to overcome inherent methodological problems. Key words: electron tomography, surfactant, translocation, oxidative stress, inflammation.

Integration of room temperature single electron transistor with CMOS subsystem

The single electron transistor (SET) is a charge-based device that may complement the dominant metal-oxide-semiconductor field effect transistor (MOSFET) technology. As the cost of scaling MOSFET to smaller dimensions are rising and the the basic functionality of MOSFET is encountering numerous challenges at dimensions smaller than 10nm, the SET has shown the potential to become the next generation device which operates based on the tunneling of electrons. Since the electron transfer mechanism of a SET device is based on the non-dissipative electron tunneling effect, the power consumption of a SET device is extremely low, estimated to be on the order of 10^-18J. The objectives of this research are to demonstrate technologies that would enable the mass produce of SET devices that are operational at room temperature and to integrate these devices on top of an active complementary-MOSFET (CMOS) substrate. To achieve these goals, two fabrication techniques are considered in this work. The Focus Ion Beam (FIB) technique is used to fabricate the islands and the tunnel junctions of the SET device. A Ultra-Violet (UV) light based Nano-Imprint Lithography (NIL) call Step-and-Flash- Imprint Lithography (SFIL) is used to fabricate the interconnections of the SET devices. Combining these two techniques, a full array of SET devices are fabricated on a planar substrate. Test and characterization of the SET devices has shown consistent Coulomb blockade effect, an important single electron characteristic. To realize a room temperature operational SET device that function as a logic device to work along CMOS, it is important to know the device behavior at different temperatures. Based on the theory developed for a single island SET device, a thermal analysis is carried out on the multi-island SET device and the observation of changes in Coulomb blockade effect is presented. The results show that the multi-island SET device operation highly depends on temperature. The important parameters that determine the SET operation is the effective capacitance Ceff and tunneling resistance Rt . These two parameters lead to the tunneling rate of an electron in the SET device, Γ. To obtain an accurate model for SET operation, the effects of the deviation in dimensions, the trap states in the insulation, and the background charge effect have to be taken into consideration. The theoretical and experimental evidence for these non-ideal effects are presented in this work.

Extracts of Lindera obtusiloba induce antifibrotic effects in hepatic stellate cells via suppression of a TGF-beta-mediated profibrotic gene expression pattern

Liver fibrosis is characterized by high expression of the key profibrogenic cytokine transforming growth factor (TGF)-beta and the natural tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases (TIMP)-1, leading to substantial accumulation of extracellular matrix. Liver fibrosis originates from various chronic liver diseases, such as chronic viral hepatitis that, to date, cannot be treated sufficiently. Thus, novel therapeutics, for example, those derived from Oriental medicine, have gained growing attention. In Korea, extracts prepared from Lindera obtusiloba are used for centuries for treatment of inflammation, improvement of blood circulation and prevention of liver damage, but experimental evidence of their efficacy is lacking. We studied direct antifibrotic effects in activated hepatic stellate cells (HSCs), the main target cell in the fibrotic liver. L. obtusiloba extract (135 mug/ml) reduced the de novo DNA synthesis of activated rat and human HSCs by about 90%, which was not accompanied by cytotoxicity of HSC, primary hepatocytes and HepG2 cells, pointing to induction of cellular quiescence. As determined by quantitative polymerase chain reaction, simultaneous treatment of HSCs with TGF-beta and L. obtusiloba extract resulted in reduction of TIMP-1 expression to baseline level, disruption of the autocrine loop of TGF-beta autoinduction and increased expression of fibrolytic matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-3. In addition, L. obtusiloba reduced gelatinolytic activity of HSC by interfering with profibrogenic MMP-2 activity. Since L. obtusiloba extract prevented intracellular oxidative stress experimentally induced by tert-butylhydroperoxide, we concluded that the direct antifibrotic effect of L. obtusiloba extract might be mediated by antioxidant activity. Thus, L. obtusiloba, traditionally used in Oriental medicine, may complement treatment of chronic liver disease.

Combined approach to hepatocellular carcinoma: a new treatment concept for nonresectable disease

Depending on tumor burden, hepatic function and patients' performance status, hepatocellular carcinoma is treated by surgery, local procedures, systemic therapy or palliation. The majority of patients are diagnosed at a stage where local therapy is the treatment of choice. Recently, the multikinase inhibitor sorafenib was found to improve the survival of patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma and conserved liver function. In this manuscript, we summarize the experimental evidence supporting the combination of a systemic targeted therapy with a local therapy. We also discuss the pros and cons of different schedules of combining such treatments. We conclude that there is enough of a theoretical argument to design clinical trials testing this strategy.

Apelin signaling modulates splanchnic angiogenesis and portosystemic collateral vessel formation in rats with portal hypertension

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Angiogenesis is a pathological hallmark of portal hypertension. Although VEGF is considered to be the most important proangiogenic factor in neoangiogenesis, this process requires the coordinated action of a variety of factors. Identification of novel molecules involved in angiogenesis is highly relevant, since they may represent potential new targets to suppress pathological neovascularization in angiogenesis-related diseases like portal hypertension. The apelin/APJ signaling pathway plays a crucial role in angiogenesis. Therefore, we determined whether the apelin system modulates angiogenesis-driven processes in portal hypertension. METHODS: Partial portal vein-ligated rats were treated with the APJ antagonist F13A for seven days. Splanchnic neovascularization and expression of angiogenesis mediators (Western blotting) was determined. Portosystemic collateral formation (microspheres), and hemodynamic parameters (flowmetry) were also assessed. RESULTS: Apelin and its receptor APJ were overexpressed in the splanchnic vasculature of portal hypertensive rats. F13A effectively decreased, by 52%, splanchnic neovascularization and expression of proangiogenic factors VEGF, PDGF and angiopoietin-2 in portal hypertensive rats. F13A also reduced, by 35%, the formation of portosystemic collateral vessels. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides the first experimental evidence showing that the apelin/APJ system contributes to portosystemic collateralization and splanchnic neovascularization in portal hypertensive rats, presenting a potential novel therapeutic target for portal hypertension.

Bovine Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection in McNay Farm Calves

Clinical respiratory disease occurs almost every year in fall calves in the McNay Farm herd. Diagnostic procedures have implicated Haemophilus somnus (H. somnus) and bovine respiratory syncyial virus (BRSV) as the infectious agents primarily associated with this disease. Therefore, the 1995 calves were closely monitored after weaning and during the course of a respiratory disease. Serologic evidence indicated the involvement of the same two agents in the pathogenesis of the disease. Also, experimental evidence suggested a role for a preexisting immediate hypersensitivity to H. somnus and the development of this type of response to BRSV. We theorize that the pathogenesis of the clinical disease involved infection with H. somnus, establishment of immediate hypersensitivity in the lungs, viral infection with associated pathologic lesions, and viral exacerbation of the immediate hypersensitivity reaction with resultant clinical signs and tissue damage.

Sweet Puppies and Cute Babies: Perceptual Adaptation to Babyfacedness Transfers across Species

Infant faces are very salient stimuli. The Kindchenschema describes specific features that characterize a cute infant face. In this study we used a visual adaptation paradigm to investigate the universality of the perceptual properties of the Kindchenschema. In Experiment 1, twenty-four participants adapted to cute and less cute human infant faces and in Experiment 2, twenty-four new participants adapted to cute and less cute faces of puppy dogs. In both experiments the task was to assess the cuteness of subsequently presented human infant faces. The results revealed cuteness after-effects for human infant faces in both adaptation conditions, suggesting a common mechanism coding cuteness in human and non-human faces. This study provides experimental evidence for the universality of the well-described concept of the Kindchenschema.

Tracking the Flow of Information through the Hippocampal Formation in the Rat

The hippocampus receives input from upper levels of the association cortex and is implicated in many mnemonic processes, but the exact mechanisms by which it codes and stores information is an unresolved topic. This work examines the flow of information through the hippocampal formation while attempting to determine the computations that each of the hippocampal subfields performs in learning and memory. The formation, storage, and recall of hippocampal-dependent memories theoretically utilize an autoassociative attractor network that functions by implementing two competitive, yet complementary, processes. Pattern separation, hypothesized to occur in the dentate gyrus (DG), refers to the ability to decrease the similarity among incoming information by producing output patterns that overlap less than the inputs. In contrast, pattern completion, hypothesized to occur in the CA3 region, refers to the ability to reproduce a previously stored output pattern from a partial or degraded input pattern. Prior to addressing the functional role of the DG and CA3 subfields, the spatial firing properties of neurons in the dentate gyrus were examined. The principal cell of the dentate gyrus, the granule cell, has spatially selective place fields; however, the behavioral correlates of another excitatory cell, the mossy cell of the dentate polymorphic layer, are unknown. This report shows that putative mossy cells have spatially selective firing that consists of multiple fields similar to previously reported properties of granule cells. Other cells recorded from the DG had single place fields. Compared to cells with multiple fields, cells with single fields fired at a lower rate during sleep, were less likely to burst, and were more likely to be recorded simultaneously with a large population of neurons that were active during sleep and silent during behavior. These data suggest that single-field and multiple-field cells constitute at least two distinct cell classes in the DG. Based on these characteristics, we propose that putative mossy cells tend to fire in multiple, distinct locations in an environment, whereas putative granule cells tend to fire in single locations, similar to place fields of the CA1 and CA3 regions. Experimental evidence supporting the theories of pattern separation and pattern completion comes from both behavioral and electrophysiological tests. These studies specifically focused on the function of each subregion and made implicit assumptions about how environmental manipulations changed the representations encoded by the hippocampal inputs. However, the cell populations that provided these inputs were in most cases not directly examined. We conducted a series of studies to investigate the neural activity in the entorhinal cortex, dentate gyrus, and CA3 in the same experimental conditions, which allowed a direct comparison between the input and output representations. The results show that the dentate gyrus representation changes between the familiar and cue altered environments more than its input representations, whereas the CA3 representation changes less than its input representations. These findings are consistent with longstanding computational models proposing that (1) CA3 is an associative memory system performing pattern completion in order to recall previous memories from partial inputs, and (2) the dentate gyrus performs pattern separation to help store different memories in ways that reduce interference when the memories are subsequently recalled.

Recovery from monocular deprivation using binocular deprivation.

Ocular dominance (OD) plasticity is a robust paradigm for examining the functional consequences of synaptic plasticity. Previous experimental and theoretical results have shown that OD plasticity can be accounted for by known synaptic plasticity mechanisms, using the assumption that deprivation by lid suture eliminates spatial structure in the deprived channel. Here we show that in the mouse, recovery from monocular lid suture can be obtained by subsequent binocular lid suture but not by dark rearing. This poses a significant challenge to previous theoretical results. We therefore performed simulations with a natural input environment appropriate for mouse visual cortex. In contrast to previous work, we assume that lid suture causes degradation but not elimination of spatial structure, whereas dark rearing produces elimination of spatial structure. We present experimental evidence that supports this assumption, measuring responses through sutured lids in the mouse. The change in assumptions about the input environment is sufficient to account for new experimental observations, while still accounting for previous experimental results.

Proton flux across artificial vesicle bilayers

The study of proton conductance across artificial membranes has revealed a surprisingly high permeability for H+, (Pnet H+). A high Pnet H+ is difficult to reconcile with the biological requirement for the maintenance of pH gradients across the plasma membranes of cells, organellar study was undertaken to examine the role played by cholesterol and phospholipid fatty acid side chain composition in determining how well a membrane will function as a barrier to acid. The effects of counter-ion movement on acidification rates were examined in order to interpret the data obtained from variations in membrane composition. In phosphate buffered saline solutions, vesicle membranes composed of unsaturated fatty acid phosphatidylcholines proved to be poorer barriers to acid than membranes composed of saturated fatty acids. The barrier properties of these membranes could be ranked in the following order: DPL, (palmitic) $>$ Egg PC, (mixed chains) $>$ DLL, (linoleic), with DPL being the most effective in maintaining a one pH unit gradient near neutrality. Cholesterol decreased acidification rates of membranes made from the unsaturated phosphatidylcholines Egg PC and DLL, but enhanced acidification rates in vesicle membranes composed of the saturated phospholipid DPL. The cholesterol and fatty acid side chain effects were mediated by changes in membrane fluidity, with more rigid bilayers forming better barriers to acid. Experimental evidence was obtained which confirmed the Pnet H+ is very high relative to the permeabilities of other ions. Counter-ion controlled acidification rates depended on the size and charge of the ion which was moving in order to maintain electroneutrality. The biological relevance of a high intrinsic Pnet H+ and the possible role of counter-ion controlled acidification were discussed. ^

Maintenance of phosphatidylserine asymmetry in erythroid cells during differentiation, aging, and its significance for macrophage recognition

Phosphatidylserine (PS) is distributed almost entirely in the inner leaflet of the erythrocyte membrane bilayer, and appears to be maintained by a 32 kDa integral membrane protein (PS translocase). The expression of PS on the outer leaflet may serve as a recognition signal for macrophages, since insertion of PS into erythrocytes enhances their adherence to macrophages and clearance from the circulation. Therefore I have hypothesized that erythroid cells display PS on their outer leaflet early in differentiation and upon aging. Analysis of murine erythroleukemia cells (MELC, undifferentiated erythroid progenitor cells) showed high levels of PS on the outer leaflet that decreased during differentiation, correlating with the pattern of macrophage adherence. The activity of the PS translocase during differentiation appears to be unchanged although the equilibrium distribution of PS differs. This difference may be due to qualitative changes in the PS translocase. $\sp{125}$I-Bolton/Hunter-labeled-pyridyldithioethylamine ($\sp{125}$I-B/H-PDA), a radiolabeled probe for the PS translocase, labeled a 32 kDa protein in mature erythrocytes whereas in MELC a 45 kDa protein as well as a 32 kDa protein was identified. The abundance of the 45 kDa protein in relation to the 32 kDa protein declined during differentiation, possibly indicating this protein was a precursor of the 32 kDa protein. Analysis of the 45 kDa protein by N-glycosidase F and endoproteinase cleavage suggested this protein was not a glycosylated form of the 32 kDa protein but appeared to share some structural homology. Aged murine erythrocytes had elevated levels of PS on their outer leaflet, as well as decreased PS translocase activity. $\sp{125}$I-B/H-PDA labeled a 32 kDa protein in both normal and aged erythrocytes. However, the latter cells also contained a 28 kDa protein. Experimental evidence suggests that the appearance of the 28 kDa protein may be due to increased oxidation of aged erythrocytes. Examination of PS distribution showed that the levels of PS on the outer leaflet were elevated early in differentiation, decreased during the mature state, and returned to high levels as the erythrocyte aged. In conclusion,the levels of outer leaflet PS correlated with the differentiation status and macrophage recognition of erythroid cells. ^

Cell surface $\beta$-1,4-galactosyltransferase function during invasion and metastasis

Metastasis is the complex process of tumor cell spread which is responsible for the majority of cancer-related deaths. Metastasis necessitates complex phenotypic changes, many of which are mediated by changes in the activities of cell surface molecules. One of these is cell surface $\beta$1,4-galactosyltransferase (GalTase), which is elevated on more highly metastatic cells. In this study, both molecular and biochemical methods were used to perturb and manipulate cell surface GalTase levels on K1735 murine melanoma cell lines in order to examine its function in metastasis.^ As expected, highly metastatic K1735 variants have higher cell surface GalTase than poorly metastatic variants. Stably transfected K1735 cell lines that overexpress surface GalTase were created. These cell lines were assayed for metastatic ability using an invasion chamber with Matrigel-coated filter inserts. Cells with increased surface GalTase were uniformly more invasive than neo transfected controls. With multiple cell lines, there was a direct correlation (r = 0.918) between surface GalTase activity and invasiveness. Homologous recombination was used to create K1735 cells with decreased levels of surface GalTase. These cells were uniformly less invasive than controls. Cell surface GalTase was inhibited using two different biochemical strategies. In both cases, inhibition of surface GalTase led to a decrease in in vivo metastatic ability of K1735 cells. This is the first direct experimental evidence addressing GalTase function in metastasis. These data provide several lines of independent evidence which show that cell surface GalTase facilitates invasion and metastasis. ^