Evaluating the Bank of England density forecasts of inflation

We consider evaluating the UK Monetary Policy Committee's inflation density forecasts using probability integral transform goodness-of-fit tests. These tests evaluate the whole forecast density. We also consider whether the probabilities assigned to inflation being in certain ranges are well calibrated, where the ranges are chosen to be those of particular relevance to the MPC, given its remit of maintaining inflation rates in a band around per annum. Finally, we discuss the decision-based approach to forecast evaluation in relation to the MPC forecasts

Identification of forged Bank of England £20 banknotes using IR spectroscopy

Bank of England notes of £20 denomination have been studied using infrared spectroscopy in order to generate a method to identify forged notes. An aim of this work was to develop a non-destructive method so that a small, compact Fourier transform infrared spectrometer (FT-IR) instrument could be used by bank workers, police departments or others such as shop assistants to identify forged notes in a non-lab setting. The ease of use of the instrument is the key to this method, as well as the relatively low cost. The presence of a peak at 1400 cm−1 arising from νasym () from the blank paper section of a forged note proved to be a successful indicator of the note’s illegality for the notes that we studied. Moreover, differences between the spectra of forged and genuine £20 notes were observed in the ν(OH) (ca. 3500 cm−1), ν(CH) (ca. 2900 cm−1) and ν(CO) (ca. 1750 cm−1) regions of the IR spectrum recorded for the polymer film covering the holographic strip. In cases where these simple tests fail, we have shown how an infrared microscope can be used to further differentiate genuine and forged banknotes by producing infrared maps of selected areas of the note contrasting inks with background paper.

Ethics of care in supporting disabled forced migrants: interactions with professionals and ethical dilemmas in health and social care in the South-East of England

This article explores the interactions between disabled forced migrants with care needs and professionals and the restrictive legal, policy and practice context that health and social care professionals have to confront, based on the findings of a qualitative study with 45 participants in the South-East of England. In-depth interviews were conducted with 15 forced migrants who had diverse impairments and chronic illnesses (8 women and 7 men), 13 family caregivers and 17 support workers and strategic professionals working in social care and the third sector in Slough, Reading and London. The legal status of forced migrants significantly affects their entitlements to health and social care provision, resulting in prolonged periods of destitution for many families. National asylum support policies, difficult working relationships with UK Border Agency, higher eligibility thresholds and reduced social care budgets of local authorities were identified as significant barriers in responding to the support needs of disabled forced migrants and family caregivers. In this context, social workers experienced considerable ethical dilemmas. The research raises profound questions about the potential and limitations of health and social care policies, provision, and practice as means of protection and support in fulfilling the human rights of forced migrants with care needs.

Factors influencing the use of antitumoral chemotherapy in the South East of England

Influences on the use of chemotherapy for the treatment of cancer within the South East region of England for patients diagnosed with colorectal, lung, breast and prostate cancer were investigated. The variables investigated as possibly influencing the selection of chemotherapy were the sex of the patients, their age, the year of diagnosis, the cancer site, the cancer stage, the index of multiple deprivation (IMD) and the cancer network of residence. Logistic regression used to adjust the proportion receiving chemotherapy in relation to other variables considered showed significant differences in the proportion of patients receiving chemotherapy between different cancer sites and different networks. There was also a highly significant trend seen in use of chemotherapy over time; the adjusted proportion of patients receiving chemotherapy increasing from 10.6% in 1993 to 24.3% in 2002. Age, stage and cancer site seemed to have the most influence on the use of chemotherapy.

Effect of feeding intensity and milking system on nutritionally relevant milk components in dairy farming systems in the North East of England

There is increasing concern that the intensification of dairy production reduces the concentrations of nutritionally desirable compounds in milk. This study therefore compared important quality parameters (protein and fatty acid profiles; α-tocopherol and carotenoid concentrations) in milk from four dairy systems with contrasting production intensities (in terms of feeding regimens and milking systems). The concentrations of several nutritionally desirable compounds (β-lactoglobulin, omega-3 fatty acids, omega-3/omega-6 ratio, conjugated linoleic acid c9t11, and/or carotenoids) decreased with increasing feeding intensity (organic outdoor ≥ conventional outdoor ≥ conventional indoors). Milking system intensification (use of robotic milking parlors) had a more limited effect on milk composition, but increased mastitis incidence. Multivariate analyses indicated that differences in milk quality were mainly linked to contrasting feeding regimens and that milking system and breed choice also contributed to differences in milk composition between production systems.

TOWARD UNDERSTANDING THE B[e] PHENOMENON. III. PROPERTIES OF THE OPTICAL COUNTERPART OF IRAS 00470+6429

FS CMa type stars are a group of Galactic objects with the B[e] phenomenon. They exhibit strong emission-line spectra and infrared excesses, which are most likely due to recently formed circumstellar dust. The group content and identification criteria were described in the first two papers of the series. In this paper we report our spectroscopic and photometric observations of the optical counterpart of IRAS 00470+6429 obtained in 2003-2008. The optical spectrum is dominated by emission lines, most of which have P Cyg type profiles. We detected significant brightness variations, which may include a regular component, and variable spectral line profiles in both shape and position. The presence of a weak Li I 6708 angstrom line in the spectrum suggests that the object is most likely a binary system with a B2-B3 spectral-type primary companion of a luminosity log L/L(circle dot) = 3.9 +/- 0.3 and a late-type secondary companion. We estimate a distance toward the object to be 2.0 +/- 0.3 kpc from the Sun.

Diruthenium(II, III) complexes of ibuprofen, aspirin, naproxen and indomethacin non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs: Synthesis, characterization and their effects on tumor-cell proliferation

[Ru-2(dNSAID)(4)Cl] and novel [Ru-2(dNSAID)(4)(H2O)(2)]PF6 complexes, where dNSAID = deprotonated carboxylate from the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSIDs), respectively: ibuprofen, Hibp (1) and aspirin, Hasp (2); naproxen, Hnpx (3) and indomethacin, Hind (4), have been prepared and characterized by optical spectroscopic methods. All of the compounds exhibit mixed valent Ru-2(II, III) cores where metal-metal bonds are stabilized by four drug-carboxylate bridging ligands in paddlewheel type structures. The diruthenium complexes and their parent NSAIDs showed no significant effects for Hep2 human larynx or T24/83 human bladder tumor. In contrast, the coordination of Ru-2(II,III) core led to synergistic effects that increased significantly the inhibition of C6 rat glioma proliferation in relation to the organic NSAIDs naproxen and ibuprofen, The possibility that the complexes Ru-2-ibp and Ru-2-npx may exert effects (anti-angiogenic and anti-matrix metalloprotease) that are similar to those exhibited by NAMI-A opens new horizons for in vivo C6 glioma model studies. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamics in dumbbell domains III. Continuity of attractors

In this paper we conclude the analysis started in [J.M. Arrieta, AN Carvalho, G. Lozada-Cruz, Dynamics in dumbbell domains I. Continuity of the set of equilibria, J. Differential Equations 231 (2006) 551-597] and continued in [J.M. Arrieta, AN Carvalho, G. Lozada-Cruz, Dynamics in dumbbell domains II. The limiting problem, J. Differential Equations 247 (1) (2009) 174-202 (this issue)] concerning the behavior of the asymptotic dynamics of a dissipative reaction-diffusion equation in a dumbbell domain as the channel shrinks to a line segment. In [J.M. Arrieta, AN Carvalho. G. Lozada-Cruz, Dynamics in dumbbell domains I. Continuity of the set of equilibria, J. Differential Equations 231 (2006) 551-597], we have established an appropriate functional analytic framework to address this problem and we have shown the continuity of the set of equilibria. In [J.M. Arrieta, AN Carvalho, G. Lozada-Cruz. Dynamics in dumbbell domains II. The limiting problem, J. Differential Equations 247 (1) (2009) 174-202 (this issue)], we have analyzed the behavior of the limiting problem. In this paper we show that the attractors are Upper semicontinuous and, moreover, if all equilibria of the limiting problem are hyperbolic, then they are lower semicontinuous and therefore, continuous. The continuity is obtained in L(p) and H(1) norms. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Haematological characteristics of Brazilian Teleosts: III. Parameters of the hybrid tambacu (Piaractus mesopotamicus Holmberg x Colossoma macropomum Cuvier) (Osteichthyes, Characidae)

Fifty six specimens of the hybrid tambacu (Piaractus mesopotamicus Holmberg, 1887 male x Colossoma macropomum Cuvier, 1818 female) were collected from fishfarm of Guariba, São Paulo, to evaluate their haematology. Fishes presented 400.0 to 3,100.0 g total weight and 20.0 to 52.0 cm total length. Haemoglobin, haematocrit, mean corpuscular haemoglobin content (MCHC) and percentage of defense blood cells including leucocytes and thrombocytes, were studied. Statistical analysis showed positive correlation (P<0.01) between haematocrit, MCHC and haemoglobin rate. Nevertheless, thrombocytes and lymphocytes showed negative correlation (P<0.01).

Searching for gallium bioactive compounds: Gallium(III) complexes of tridentate salicylaldehyde semicarbazone derivatives

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Dens invaginatus type III: report of a case and 10-year radiographic follow-up

Aim the purpose of this article is to report the 10-year follow-up of a right mandibular central incisor with 'dens invaginatus' that was root filled.Summary 'Dens invaginatus ' is a rare malformation of teeth, probably resulting from an infolding of the dental papilla during tooth development. It has alternatively been called 'dens in dente' and 'dilated composite odontome'. Radiographic examination may clearly demonstrate this feature, although no signs may be recognized clinically. If no entrance to the invagination can be detected and there are no signs of pulp pathosis, then no treatment is required other than fissure sealing of the invagination. In deep invaginations, it is likely that root-canal treatment may be required. Occasionally, when the tooth has an immature root, apexification is necessary. Root-canal treatment of a right mandibular central incisor with 'dens invaginatus ' is described along with 10-year follow-up.Key learning pointsBoth clinical and radiographic examinations are necessary to determine morphological features of teeth before root-canal treatment.Sensibility testing to determine the pulp condition is critical prior to treatment.

Thermal Behaviour Studies of Solid State Lanthanide (III) and Yttrium (III) Compounds of Cinnamylidenepyruvic Acid in an Atmosphere of Air

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)