On the solution of first excursion problems by simulation with applications to probabilistic seismic performance assessment

In a probabilistic assessment of the performance of structures subjected to uncertain environmental loads such as earthquakes, an important problem is to determine the probability that the structural response exceeds some specified limits within a given duration of interest. This problem is known as the first excursion problem, and it has been a challenging problem in the theory of stochastic dynamics and reliability analysis. In spite of the enormous amount of attention the problem has received, there is no procedure available for its general solution, especially for engineering problems of interest where the complexity of the system is large and the failure probability is small.

The application of simulation methods to solving the first excursion problem is investigated in this dissertation, with the objective of assessing the probabilistic performance of structures subjected to uncertain earthquake excitations modeled by stochastic processes. From a simulation perspective, the major difficulty in the first excursion problem comes from the large number of uncertain parameters often encountered in the stochastic description of the excitation. Existing simulation tools are examined, with special regard to their applicability in problems with a large number of uncertain parameters. Two efficient simulation methods are developed to solve the first excursion problem. The first method is developed specifically for linear dynamical systems, and it is found to be extremely efficient compared to existing techniques. The second method is more robust to the type of problem, and it is applicable to general dynamical systems. It is efficient for estimating small failure probabilities because the computational effort grows at a much slower rate with decreasing failure probability than standard Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation methods are applied to assess the probabilistic performance of structures subjected to uncertain earthquake excitation. Failure analysis is also carried out using the samples generated during simulation, which provide insight into the probable scenarios that will occur given that a structure fails.

Sistemas complexos, séries temporais e previsibilidade

Para qualquer sistema observado, físico ou qualquer outro, geralmente se deseja fazer predições para sua evolução futura. Algumas vezes, muito pouco é conhecido sobre o sistema. Se uma série temporal é a única fonte de informação no sistema, predições de valores futuros da série requer uma modelagem da lei da dinâmica do sistema, talvez não linear. Um interesse em particular são as capacidades de previsão do modelo global para análises de séries temporais. Isso pode ser um procedimento muito complexo e computacionalmente muito alto. Nesta dissertação, nos concetraremos em um determinado caso: Em algumas situações, a única informação que se tem sobre o sistema é uma série sequencial de dados (ou série temporal). Supondo que, por detrás de tais dados, exista uma dinâmica de baixa dimensionalidade, existem técnicas para a reconstrução desta dinâmica.O que se busca é desenvolver novas técnicas para poder melhorar o poder de previsão das técnicas já existentes, através da programação computacional em Maple e C/C++.

Estudo do comportamento caótico e determinação de dimensão fractal em modelos pré-inflacionários não compactos

O caos determinístico é um dos aspectos mais interessantes no que diz respeito à teoria moderna dos sistemas dinâmicos, e está intrinsecamente associado a pequenas variações nas condições iniciais de um dado modelo. Neste trabalho, é feito um estudo acerca do comportamento caótico em dois casos específicos. Primeiramente, estudam-se modelos préinflacionários não-compactos de Friedmann-Robertson-Walker com campo escalar minimamente acoplado e, em seguida, modelos anisotrópicos de Bianchi IX. Em ambos os casos, o componente material é um fluido perfeito. Tais modelos possuem constante cosmológica e podem ser estudados através de uma descrição unificada, a partir de transformações de variáveis convenientes. Estes sistemas possuem estruturas similares no espaço de fases, denominadas centros-sela, que fazem com que as soluções estejam contidas em hipersuperfícies cuja topologia é cilíndrica. Estas estruturas dominam a relação entre colapso e escape para a inflação, que podem ser tratadas como bacias cuja fronteira pode ser fractal, e que podem ser associadas a uma estrutura denominada repulsor estranho. Utilizando o método de contagem de caixas, são calculadas as dimensões características das fronteiras nos modelos, o que envolve técnicas e algoritmos de computação numérica, e tal método permite estudar o escape caótico para a inflação.

Learning to perceive in the sensor motor approach: Piaget's theory of equilibration interpreted dynamically

Learning to perceive is faced with a classical paradox: if understanding is required for perception, how can we learn to perceive something new, something we do not yet understand? According to the sensorimotor approach, perception involves mastery of regular sensorimotor co-variations that depend on the agent and the environment, also known as the "laws" of sensorimotor contingencies (SMCs). In this sense, perception involves enacting relevant sensorimotor skills in each situation. It is important for this proposal that such skills can be learned and refined with experience and yet up to this date, the sensorimotor approach has had no explicit theory of perceptual learning. The situation is made more complex if we acknowledge the open-ended nature of human learning. In this paper we propose Piaget's theory of equilibration as a potential candidate to fulfill this role. This theory highlights the importance of intrinsic sensorimotor norms, in terms of the closure of sensorimotor schemes. It also explains how the equilibration of a sensorimotor organization faced with novelty or breakdowns proceeds by re-shaping pre-existing structures in coupling with dynamical regularities of the world. This way learning to perceive is guided by the equilibration of emerging forms of skillful coping with the world. We demonstrate the compatibility between Piaget's theory and the sensorimotor approach by providing a dynamical formalization of equilibration to give an explicit micro-genetic account of sensorimotor learning and, by extension, of how we learn to perceive. This allows us to draw important lessons in the form of general principles for open-ended sensorimotor learning, including the need for an intrinsic normative evaluation by the agent itself. We also explore implications of our micro-genetic account at the personal level.

A genealogical map of the concept of habit

The notion of information processing has dominated the study of the mind for over six decades. However, before the advent of cognitivism, one of the most prominent theoretical ideas was that of Habit. This is a concept with a rich and complex history, which is again starting to awaken interest, following recent embodied, enactive critiques of computationalist frameworks. We offer here a very brief history of the concept of habit in the form of a genealogical network-map. This serves to provide an overview of the richness of this notion and as a guide for further re-appraisal. We identify 77 thinkers and their influences, and group them into seven schools of thought. Two major trends can be distinguished. One is the associationist trend, starting with the work of Locke and Hume, developed by Hartley, Bain, and Mill to be later absorbed into behaviorism through pioneering animal psychologists (Morgan and Thorndike). This tradition conceived of habits atomistically and as automatisms (a conception later debunked by cognitivism). Another historical trend we have called organicism inherits the legacy of Aristotle and develops along German idealism, French spiritualism, pragmatism, and phenomenology. It feeds into the work of continental psychologists in the early 20th century, influencing important figures such as Merleau-Ponty, Piaget, and Gibson. But it has not yet been taken up by mainstream cognitive neuroscience and psychology. Habits, in this tradition, are seen as ecological, self-organizing structures that relate to a web of predispositions and plastic dependencies both in the agent and in the environment. In addition, they are not conceptualized in opposition to rational, volitional processes, but as transversing a continuum from reflective to embodied intentionality. These are properties that make habit a particularly attractive idea for embodied, enactive perspectives, which can now re-evaluate it in light of dynamical systems theory and complexity research.

Nash equilibria in multi-agent motor interactions.

Social interactions in classic cognitive games like the ultimatum game or the prisoner's dilemma typically lead to Nash equilibria when multiple competitive decision makers with perfect knowledge select optimal strategies. However, in evolutionary game theory it has been shown that Nash equilibria can also arise as attractors in dynamical systems that can describe, for example, the population dynamics of microorganisms. Similar to such evolutionary dynamics, we find that Nash equilibria arise naturally in motor interactions in which players vie for control and try to minimize effort. When confronted with sensorimotor interaction tasks that correspond to the classical prisoner's dilemma and the rope-pulling game, two-player motor interactions led predominantly to Nash solutions. In contrast, when a single player took both roles, playing the sensorimotor game bimanually, cooperative solutions were found. Our methodology opens up a new avenue for the study of human motor interactions within a game theoretic framework, suggesting that the coupling of motor systems can lead to game theoretic solutions.

Shock transmission and eigenvalue veering within a coupled system.

The operation of dynamical systems in harsh environments requires continuous monitoring. Internal sensors may be used to monitor the conditions in real time. A typical example is the sensor and electronic components used in space structures which, especially during launch, are subject to huge g force. The paper will present an experimental and theoretical study on a simplified model used to analyze the possible cause of high acceleration on the enclosed sensors and equipments due to impulsive loading. The model system consists of two beams coupled using compliant connections. An impulse hammer excites one beam, and vibrations are transmitted to the indirectly driven beam. A theoretical model is developed using a Rayleigh-Ritz approach and validated using experimental results in both the frequency and time domains. Monto Carlo simulation was done with random masses positioned on the indirectly driven beam to determine the worst-case conditions for maximum peak acceleration. Highest acceleration levels were found when mode matching in the two beams led to veering behavior in the coupled modes. The results suggest guidelines for the detailed design of internal components of a structure exposed to shock loading from its environment. [The authors thank Schlumberger Cambridge Research for financial support.].

The post-processed Galerkin method applied to non-linear shell vibrations

We present the results of a computational study of the post-processed Galerkin methods put forward by Garcia-Archilla et al. applied to the non-linear von Karman equations governing the dynamic response of a thin cylindrical panel periodically forced by a transverse point load. We spatially discretize the shell using finite differences to produce a large system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). By analogy with spectral non-linear Galerkin methods we split this large system into a 'slowly' contracting subsystem and a 'quickly' contracting subsystem. We then compare the accuracy and efficiency of (i) ignoring the dynamics of the 'quick' system (analogous to a traditional spectral Galerkin truncation and sometimes referred to as 'subspace dynamics' in the finite element community when applied to numerical eigenvectors), (ii) slaving the dynamics of the quick system to the slow system during numerical integration (analogous to a non-linear Galerkin method), and (iii) ignoring the influence of the dynamics of the quick system on the evolution of the slow system until we require some output, when we 'lift' the variables from the slow system to the quick using the same slaving rule as in (ii). This corresponds to the post-processing of Garcia-Archilla et al. We find that method (iii) produces essentially the same accuracy as method (ii) but requires only the computational power of method (i) and is thus more efficient than either. In contrast with spectral methods, this type of finite-difference technique can be applied to irregularly shaped domains. We feel that post-processing of this form is a valuable method that can be implemented in computational schemes for a wide variety of partial differential equations (PDEs) of practical importance.

Robust variable horizon MPC with move blocking

This paper introduces a new formulation of variable horizon model predictive control (VH-MPC) that utilises move blocking for reducing computational complexity. Various results pertaining to move blocking are derived, following which, a generalised blocked VH-MPC controller is formulated for linear discrete-time systems. Robustness to bounded disturbances is ensured through the use of tightened constraints. The resulting time-varying control scheme is shown to guarantee robust recursive feasibility and finite-time completion. An example is then presented for a particular choice of blocking regime, as would be applicable to vehicle manœuvring problems. Simulations demonstrate the efficacy of the formulation. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Robust predictive control with feasible contingencies for fault tolerance

This paper introduces the notion of M-step robust fault tolerance for discrete-time systems where finite-time completion of a control manoeuvre is desired. It considers a scenario with two distinct objectives; a primary and secondary target are specified as sets to be reached in finite-time, whilst satisfying operating constraints on the states and inputs. The primary target is switched to the secondary target when a fault affects the system. As it is unknown when or if the fault will occur, the trajectory to the primary target is constrained to ensure reachability of the secondary target within M steps. A variable-horizon linear MPC formulation is developed to illustrate the concept. The formulation is then extended to provide robustness to bounded disturbances by use of tightened constraints. Simulations demonstrate the efficacy of the controller formulation on a double-integrator model. © 2011 IFAC.

An organizing center in a planar model of neuronal excitability

This paper studies the excitability properties of a generalized FitzHugh-Nagumo model. The model differs from the classical FitzHugh-Nagumo model in that it accounts for the effect of cooperative gating variables such as activation of calcium currents. Excitability is explored by unfolding a pitchfork bifurcation that is shown to organize five different types of excitability. In addition to the three classical types of neuronal excitability, two novel types are described and distinctly associated to the presence of cooperative variables. © 2012 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.

Nonlinear drillstring dynamics analysis

This paper studies the dynamical response of a rotary drilling system with a drag bit, using a lumped parameter model that takes into consideration the axial and torsional vibration modes of the bit. These vibrations are coupled through a bit-rock interaction law. At the bit-rock interface, the cutting process introduces a state-dependent delay, while the frictional process is responsible for discontinuous right-hand sides in the equations governing the motion of the bit. This complex system is characterized by a fast axial dynamics compared to the slow torsional dynamics. A dimensionless formulation exhibits a large parameter in the axial equation, enabling a two-time-scales analysis that uses a combination of averaging methods and a singular perturbation approach. An approximate model of the decoupled axial dynamics permits us to derive a pseudoanalytical expression of the solution of the axial equation. Its averaged behavior influences the slow torsional dynamics by generating an apparent velocity weakening friction law that has been proposed empirically in earlier work. The analytical expression of the solution of the axial dynamics is used to derive an approximate analytical expression of the velocity weakening friction law related to the physical parameters of the system. This expression can be used to provide recommendations on the operating parameters and the drillstring or the bit design in order to reduce the amplitude of the torsional vibrations. Moreover, it is an appropriate candidate model to replace empirical friction laws encountered in torsional models used for control. © 2009 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.

Analysis of interconnected oscillators by dissipativity theory

This paper employs dissipativity theory for the global analysis of limit cycles in particular dynamical systems of possibly high dimension. Oscillators are regarded as open systems that satisfy a particular dissipation inequality. It is shown that this characterization has implications for the global stability analysis of limit cycle oscillations: i) in isolated oscillators, ii) in interconnections of oscillators, and iii) for the global synchrony analysis in interconnections of identical oscillators. © 2007 IEEE.