Double or quits: should money found be risked?

This article examines social attitudes towards risk-preference and risk-aversion. First, we briefly discuss the theoretical approach to the analysis of risk-preference and risk-aversion that was developed within rational choice theory. Next, we present an approach to operationalise risk-preference using survey data. Our measurement of attitudes towards risk follows the usual strategy: respondents are asked to choose between a small amount of money they get for sure, and a large but risky amount. Drawing on the theoretical models and earlier empirical research, we formulate hypotheses about the social factors that have an impact on actual decision making in the situations under study. The hypotheses are tested using survey data. The article ends with a brief discussion. The novelty of our paper is that – to the best of our knowledge – neither previous Hungarian nor international research has attempted to examine attitudes towards risk using data from large-scale surveys.

Theory of foreign portfolio investment

This dissertation examines one category of international capital flows, private portfolio investments (private refers to the source of capital). There is an overall lack of a coherent and consistent definition of foreign portfolio investment. We clarify these definitional issues.^ Two main questions that pertain to private foreign portfolio investments (FPI) are explored. The first problem is the phenomenon of home preference, often referred to as home bias. Related to this are the observed cross-investment flows between countries that seem to contradict the textbook rendition of private FPI. A description of the theories purporting to resolve the home preference puzzle (and the cross-investment one) are summarized and evaluated. Most of this literature considers investors from major developed countries. I consider--as well--whether investors in less developed countries have home preference.^ The dissertation shows that home preference is indeed pervasive and profound across countries, in both developed and emerging markets. For the U.S., I examine home bias in both equity and bond holdings as well. I find that home bias is greater when we look at equity and bond holdings than equity holdings solely.^ In this dissertation a model is developed to explain home bias. This model is original and fills a gap in the literature as there have been no satisfactory models that handle at the same time both home preference and cross-border holdings in the context of information asymmetries. This model reflects what we see in the data and permits us to reach certain results by the use of comparative statics methods. The model suggests, counter-intuitively, that as the rate of return in a country relative to the world rate of return increases, home preference decreases. In the context of our relatively simple model we ascribe this result to the higher variance of the now higher return for home assets. We also find, this time as intended, that as risk aversion increases, investors diversify further so that home preference decreases.^ The second question that the dissertation deals with is the volatility of private foreign portfolio investment. Countries that are recipients of these flows have been wary of such flows because of their perceived volatility. Often the contrast is made with the perceived absence of volatility in foreign direct investment flows. I analyze the validity of these concerns using first net flow data and then gross flow data. The results show that FPI is not, in relative terms, more volatile than other flows in our sample of eight countries (half were developed countries and the rest were emerging markets).^ The implication therefore is that restricting FPI flows may be harmful in the sense that private capital may not be allocated efficiently worldwide to the detriment of capital poor economies. More to the point, any such restrictions would in fact be misguided. ^

Research on the influence of behavioral forces that motivate trader behavior and sentiment: A prospect theory exegesis

This study focuses on empirical investigations and seeks implications by utilizing three different methodologies to test various aspects of trader behavior. The first methodology utilizes Prospect Theory to determine trader behavior during periods of extreme wealth contracting periods. Secondly, a threshold model to examine the sentiment variable is formulated and thirdly a study is made of the contagion effect and trader behavior. ^ The connection between consumers' sense of financial well-being or sentiment and stock market performance has been studied at length. However, without data on actual versus experimental performance, implications based on this relationship are meaningless. The empirical agenda included examining a proprietary file of daily trader activities over a five-year period. Overall, during periods of extreme wealth altering conditions, traders "satisfice" rather than choose the "best" alternative. A trader's degree of loss aversion depends on his/her prior investment performance. A model that explains the behavior of traders during periods of turmoil is developed. Prospect Theory and the data file influenced the design of the model. ^ Additional research included testing a model that permitted the data to signal the crisis through a threshold model. The third empirical study sought to investigate the existence of contagion caused by declining global wealth effects using evidence from the mining industry in Canada. Contagion, where a financial crisis begins locally and subsequently spreads elsewhere, has been studied in terms of correlations among similar regions. The results provide support for Prospect Theory in two out of the three empirical studies. ^ The dissertation emphasizes the need for specifying precise, testable models of investors' expectations by providing tools to identify paradoxical behavior patterns. True enhancements in this field must include empirical research utilizing reliable data sources to mitigate data mining problems and allow researchers to distinguish between expectations-based and risk-based explanations of behavior. Through this type of research, it may be possible to systematically exploit "irrational" market behavior. ^

Three essays on asset pricing

In this dissertation, I investigate three related topics on asset pricing: the consumption-based asset pricing under long-run risks and fat tails, the pricing of VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) options and the market price of risk embedded in stock returns and stock options. These three topics are fully explored in Chapter II through IV. Chapter V summarizes the main conclusions. In Chapter II, I explore the effects of fat tails on the equilibrium implications of the long run risks model of asset pricing by introducing innovations with dampened power law to consumption and dividends growth processes. I estimate the structural parameters of the proposed model by maximum likelihood. I find that the stochastic volatility model with fat tails can, without resorting to high risk aversion, generate implied risk premium, expected risk free rate and their volatilities comparable to the magnitudes observed in data. In Chapter III, I examine the pricing performance of VIX option models. The contention that simpler-is-better is supported by the empirical evidence using actual VIX option market data. I find that no model has small pricing errors over the entire range of strike prices and times to expiration. In general, Whaley’s Black-like option model produces the best overall results, supporting the simpler-is-better contention. However, the Whaley model does under/overprice out-of-the-money call/put VIX options, which is contrary to the behavior of stock index option pricing models. In Chapter IV, I explore risk pricing through a model of time-changed Lvy processes based on the joint evidence from individual stock options and underlying stocks. I specify a pricing kernel that prices idiosyncratic and systematic risks. This approach to examining risk premia on stocks deviates from existing studies. The empirical results show that the market pays positive premia for idiosyncratic and market jump-diffusion risk, and idiosyncratic volatility risk. However, there is no consensus on the premium for market volatility risk. It can be positive or negative. The positive premium on idiosyncratic risk runs contrary to the implications of traditional capital asset pricing theory.

Social and seasonal plasticity of the electric fish, Brachyhypopomus gauderio

The South American electric knifefish, Brachyhypopomus gauderio, uses weakly electric fields to see and communicate in the dark. Only one study to date has investigated natural behavior in this species during the breeding season; this study proposed that B. guarerio has an exploded lek polygyny breeding system. To test this hypothesis, artificial marshes simulating the native vegetation, temperature, and water conductivities of the South American subtropics were created to study seasonal variation in associative behavior of B. gauderio during the breeding and non-breeding seasons. Mark/recapture methods were used to keep track of individual fish and their dispersion inside the experimental designs. The experimental design proved to be extremely successful at eliciting reproduction. Differences were found in seasonal variations of social behaviors between adult and juvenile populations. Although no apparent sex. differences in movement patterns were found during the breeding season; a trend for male-male aversion was found, suggesting male-male avoidance as a possible strategy guiding aspects of social behaviors in this species. Further, movement may be a tactic for mate seeking as the individuals who moved the most during the breeding season obtained the most opposite sex interactions. These findings support the exploded lek polygyny model. Social interactions are subject to complex regulation by social, physiologic and ecological factors; the extent to which these associations are repeatable may provide novel insights on the evolution of sociality as it has been shaped by natural selection.

Research on the influence of behavioral forces that motivate trader behavior and sentiment- a prospect theory exegesis

This study focuses on empirical investigations and seeks implications by utilizing three different methodologies to test various aspects of trader behavior. The first methodology utilizes Prospect Theory to determine trader behavior during periods of extreme wealth contracting periods. Secondly, a threshold model to examine the sentiment variable is formulated and thirdly a study is made of the contagion effect and trader behavior. The connection between consumers' sense of financial well-being or sentiment and stock market performance has been studied at length. However, without data on actual versus experimental performance, implications based on this relationship are meaningless. The empirical agenda included examining a proprietary file of daily trader activities over a five-year period. Overall, during periods of extreme wealth altering conditions, traders "satisfice" rather than choose the "best" alternative. A trader's degree of loss aversion depends on his/her prior investment performance. A model that explains the behavior of traders during periods of turmoil is developed. Prospect Theory and the data file influenced the design of the model. Additional research included testing a model that permitted the data to signal the crisis through a threshold model. The third empirical study sought to investigate the existence of contagion caused by declining global wealth effects using evidence from the mining industry in Canada. Contagion, where a financial crisis begins locally and subsequently spreads elsewhere, has been studied in terms of correlations among similar regions. The results provide support for Prospect Theory in two out of the three empirical studies. The dissertation emphasizes the need for specifying precise, testable models of investors' expectations by providing tools to identify paradoxical behavior patterns. True enhancements in this field must include empirical research utilizing reliable data sources to mitigate data mining problems and allow researchers to distinguish between expectations-based and risk-based explanations of behavior. Through this type of research, it may be possible to systematically exploit "irrational" market behavior.

Three Essays on Asset Pricing

In this dissertation, I investigate three related topics on asset pricing: the consumption-based asset pricing under long-run risks and fat tails, the pricing of VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) options and the market price of risk embedded in stock returns and stock options. These three topics are fully explored in Chapter II through IV. Chapter V summarizes the main conclusions. In Chapter II, I explore the effects of fat tails on the equilibrium implications of the long run risks model of asset pricing by introducing innovations with dampened power law to consumption and dividends growth processes. I estimate the structural parameters of the proposed model by maximum likelihood. I find that the stochastic volatility model with fat tails can, without resorting to high risk aversion, generate implied risk premium, expected risk free rate and their volatilities comparable to the magnitudes observed in data. In Chapter III, I examine the pricing performance of VIX option models. The contention that simpler-is-better is supported by the empirical evidence using actual VIX option market data. I find that no model has small pricing errors over the entire range of strike prices and times to expiration. In general, Whaley’s Black-like option model produces the best overall results, supporting the simpler-is-better contention. However, the Whaley model does under/overprice out-of-the-money call/put VIX options, which is contrary to the behavior of stock index option pricing models. In Chapter IV, I explore risk pricing through a model of time-changed Lévy processes based on the joint evidence from individual stock options and underlying stocks. I specify a pricing kernel that prices idiosyncratic and systematic risks. This approach to examining risk premia on stocks deviates from existing studies. The empirical results show that the market pays positive premia for idiosyncratic and market jump-diffusion risk, and idiosyncratic volatility risk. However, there is no consensus on the premium for market volatility risk. It can be positive or negative. The positive premium on idiosyncratic risk runs contrary to the implications of traditional capital asset pricing theory.

On the use of transgenic mice and optogenetics to characterize genetically defined subpopulations of neurons

Neuroscientists have a variety of perspectives with which to classify different parts of the brain. With the rise of genetic-based techniques such as optogenetics, it is increasingly important to identify whether a group of cells, defined by morphology, function or anatomical location possesses a distinct pattern of expression of one or more genetic promoters. This would allow for better ways to study of these genetically defined subpopulations of neurons. In this work, I present a theoretical discussion and threeexperimental studies in which this was the main question being addressed. Paper I discusses the issues involved in selecting a promoter to study structures and subpopulations in the Ventral Tegmental Area. Paper II characterizes a subpopulation of cells in the Ventral Tegmental Area that shares the expression of a promoter and is anatomically very restricted, and induces aversion when stimulated. Paper III utilizes a similar strategy to investigate a subpopulation in the subthalamic nucleus that expresses PITX2 and VGLUT2 which, when inactivated, causes hyperlocomotion. Paper IV exploits the fact that a previously identified group of cells in the ventral hippocampus expresses CHRNA2, and indicates that this population may be necessary and sufficient for the establishment of the theta rhythm (2-8 Hz) in the Local Field Potential of anesthetized mice. All of these studies were guided by the same strategy of characterizing and studying the role of a genetically defined subpopulation of cells, and they demonstrate the different ways in which this approach can generate new discoveries.

A COMUNICAÇÃO CORPORATIVA E O DISCURSO DO CONSUMIDOR CONTEMPORÂNEO NOS SITES SOCIAIS DE RECLAMAÇÃO: DECEPÇÃO E COABITAÇÃO NA REDE – DESAFIOS E OPORTUNIDADES

A expansão das redes sociais virtuais, o aperfeiçoamento das técnicas de informação, a penetrabilidade do capitalismo de concorrência e o fragmentado sujeito pós-moderno constituem, ao lado da sociedade de consumo, os pilares desta tese. Nossa hipótese central é que as redes sociais da Internet ampliam os espaços de participação, compartilhamento, colaboração e manifestação das decepções do consumidor, mas não diminuem as descontinuidades, a incompreensão e o desrespeito oriundos das relações e práticas de consumo, podendo, muitas vezes, aceleraremasconflitualidades. A abertura para o diálogo, o incitamento à tomada de poder do sujeito e a multiplicação das trocas entre empresas e consumidores representam a oportunidade e o desafio de valorizarmos a concepção normativa da comunicação, admitindo as dificuldades da intercompreensão, a urgência da coabitação e a realidade da incomunicação. Recorremos à Análise de Discurso de tradição francesa (AD) como campo teórico-metodológico para analisar o discurso do consumidor inscrito na plataforma Reclame AQUI e construir uma crítica à comunicação corporativa contemporânea; a partir dos conceitos de cenografia, ethos e esquematização enunciativa, verificamos como a ideologia opera no interior das cenas daenunciação do consumo, constituindo uma ordem própria ao discurso do reclamante decepcionado. Esta análise ratificou as discussões teóricas que levamos a cabo, servindo de suporte para a problematização e o debate das sete cenografias que se evidenciaram no/pelo discurso do sujeito/consumidor: respeito/desrespeito, ameaça, promessa e frustração, mau atendimento e problema não resolvido, negociação, clientes novos x antigos e consumidor enganado; a imbricação do nosso corpuse o arcabouço teórico coloca na ribalta a necessidade de políticas de comunicação organizacional norteadas pelo senso prático de outridade, transcendendo as relações puramente mercadológicas; ao mesmo tempo, lança luz sobre apremência de mais solidariedade, compaixão, capacidade de escuta, compreensão e coabitação para as corporações que funcionam em uma sociedade guiada pelo frenesi da ética da concorrência e da consumolatria. Esta tese evidencia que a atuação dos consumidores e das empresas no mundo on-line representa mais que um elemento circunstancial de (in) tolerância mútua; desenha um destino comum que pode ter como rumo a outridade solidária do próximo, aceitando a experiência da alteridade, o risco do fracasso e a esperança da confiança e do respeito que a comunicação pode conceber.

CLIMA ORGANIZACIONAL E BURNOUT: UM ESTUDO COM SERVIDORES PÚBLICOS FEDERAIS

As condições inadequadas vivenciadas nas organizações afligem não só os trabalhadores da iniciativa privada, pois são igualmente encontradas no segmento estatal, contrariando a expectativa de que o aparato governamental eliminaria as condições insalubres e criaria outras melhores nas quais prevalecesse à promoção de saúde. Diante desse panorama questionou-se porque, uma vez que, pelo menos do ponto de vista da sociedade leiga, esses servidores estão submetidos a condições privilegiadas de trabalho. O presente estudo objetivou identificar e descrever possíveis relações entre o clima organizacional e o burnout em servidores públicos de uma instituição federal de ensino. Objetivou-se ainda descrever o clima organizacional predominante. A pesquisa realizada teve cunho quantitativo, tipo estudo de caso e exploratória. A coleta de dados deu-se por meio das escalas ECO (escala de clima organizacional), ECB (escala de caracterização do burnout) e um questionário sociodemográfico, todos os instrumentos autoaplicáveis eletronicamente disponíveis à instituição. Participaram do estudo 201 servidores públicos federais, com idade média de 37 anos, majoritariamente de nível superior e casados. Os resultados revelaram que cerca de um quarto dos participantes raramente experimentaram burnout, no entanto outra quarta parte deles frequentemente experimentaram altos níveis de burnout, resultado bastante expressivo. Os servidores perceberam clima organizacional mediano, destacando-se a boa coesão entre os colegas de trabalho e a percepção de baixa recompensa. Merece destaque a grande dispersão entre as percepções de clima, o que permite inferir haver subclimas não identificados nesta investigação, possivelmente ocasionados por uma força de clima fraca e pela participação dos servidores de unidades de ensino geograficamente distintas, geridas por gestores locais com relativa autonomia. Os resultados dos cálculos de correlação revelaram que, quanto menos os participantes percebem apoio da chefia e da organização, coesão entre colegas, e mais controle/pressão, mais exaustos se sentem, mais desumanizam as pessoas com quem tratam e mais se decepcionam no trabalho e vice-versa. Conforto físico menor está associado a maior desumanização e a mais decepção no trabalho e vice-versa; e que controle/pressão, relaciona-se positiva e fracamente com desumanização e vice-versa. Desta forma, a hipótese de que existe associação entre burnout e clima organizacional foi confirmada. Os resultados também revelaram que os servidores com burnout, perceberam pior clima organizacional que os seus pares sem burnout, confirmando a segunda hipótese. Esses servidores também se mostraram neutros quanto à percepção de apoio da chefia e conforto físico; não percebem controle pressão, nem recompensa; todavia percebem coesão entre os colegas. Esses resultados sugerem que os participantes têm se apoiado nessas relações para suportar a indiferença e ausência de estímulos experimentados no trabalho. Os resultados obtidos nesse estudo permitiram concluir que o clima organizacional é fraco, provavelmente influenciado por uma cultura organizacional fraca, explicando a heterogeneidade da percepção do clima organizacional pelos servidores. Além disso, embora haja burnout entre poucos participantes, há que se atentar que cerca de um quarto deles, encontra-se acometido desta síndrome e isto poderá contagiar os demais.

Are long gamma-ray bursts biased tracers of star formation? Clues from the host galaxies of the Swift/BAT6 complete sample of bright LGRBs II. Star formation rates and metallicities at z < 1

Aims. Long gamma-ray bursts (LGRBs) are associated with the deaths of massive stars and might therefore be a potentially powerful tool for tracing cosmic star formation. However, especially at low redshifts (z< 1.5) LGRBs seem to prefer particular types of environment. Our aim is to study the host galaxies of a complete sample of bright LGRBs to investigate the effect of the environment on GRB formation. Methods. We studied host galaxy spectra of the Swift/BAT6 complete sample of 14 z< 1 bright LGRBs. We used the detected nebular emission lines to measure the dust extinction, star formation rate (SFR), and nebular metallicity (Z) of the hosts and supplemented the data set with previously measured stellar masses M_*. The distributions of the obtained properties and their interrelations (e.g. mass-metallicity and SFR-M_* relations) are compared to samples of field star-forming galaxies. Results. We find that LGRB hosts at z< 1 have on average lower SFRs than if they were direct star formation tracers. By directly comparing metallicity distributions of LGRB hosts and star-forming galaxies, we find a good match between the two populations up to 12 +log (O/H)~8.4−8.5, after which the paucity of metal-rich LGRB hosts becomes apparent. The LGRB host galaxies of our complete sample are consistent with the mass-metallicity relation at similar mean redshift and stellar masses. The cutoff against high metallicities (and high masses) can explain the low SFR values of LGRB hosts. We find a hint of an increased incidence of starburst galaxies in the Swift/BAT6 z< 1 sample with respect to that of a field star-forming population. Given that the SFRs are low on average, the latter is ascribed to low stellar masses. Nevertheless, the limits on the completeness and metallicity availability of current surveys, coupled with the limited number of LGRB host galaxies, prevents us from investigating more quantitatively whether the starburst incidence is such as expected after taking into account the high-metallicity aversion of LGRB host galaxies.

A Study of How Economic Attitudes Are Shaped by Environmental Shocks and Life Experiences

Social attitudes, attitudes toward financial risk and attitudes toward deferred gratification are thought to influence many important economic decisions over the life-course. In economic theory, these attitudes are key components in diverse models of behavior, including collective action, saving and investment decisions and occupational choice. The relevance of these attitudes have been confirmed empirically. Yet, the factors that influence them are not well understood. This research evaluates how these attitudes are affected by large disruptive events, namely, a natural disaster and a civil conflict, and also by an individual-specific life event, namely, having children.

By implementing rigorous empirical strategies drawing on rich longitudinal datasets, this research project advances our understanding of how life experiences shape these attitudes. Moreover, compelling evidence is provided that the observed changes in attitudes are likely to reflect changes in preferences given that they are not driven just by changes in financial circumstances. Therefore the findings of this research project also contribute to the discussion of whether preferences are really fixed, a usual assumption in economics.

In the first chapter, I study how altruistic and trusting attitudes are affected by exposure to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami as long as ten years after the disaster occurred. Establishing a causal relationship between natural disasters and attitudes presents several challenges as endogenous exposure and sample selection can confound the analysis. I take on these challenges by exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in exposure to the tsunami and by relying on a longitudinal dataset representative of the pre-tsunami population in two districts of Aceh, Indonesia. The sample is drawn from the Study of the Tsunami Aftermath and Recovery (STAR), a survey with data collected both before and after the disaster and especially designed to identify the impact of the tsunami. The altruistic and trusting attitudes of the respondents are measured by their behavior in the dictator and trust games. I find that witnessing closely the damage caused by the tsunami but without suffering severe economic damage oneself increases altruistic and trusting behavior, particularly towards individuals from tsunami affected communities. Having suffered severe economic damage has no impact on altruistic behavior but may have increased trusting behavior. These effects do not seem to be caused by the consequences of the tsunami on people’s financial situation. Instead they are consistent with how experiences of loss and solidarity may have shaped social attitudes by affecting empathy and perceptions of who is deserving of aid and trust.

In the second chapter, co-authored with Ryan Brown, Duncan Thomas and Andrea Velasquez, we investigate how attitudes toward financial risk are affected by elevated levels of insecurity and uncertainty brought on by the Mexican Drug War. To conduct our analysis, we pair the Mexican Family Life Survey (MxFLS), a rich longitudinal dataset ideally suited for our purposes, with a dataset on homicide rates at the month and municipality-level. The homicide rates capture well the overall crime environment created by the drug war. The MxFLS elicits risk attitudes by asking respondents to choose between hypothetical gambles with different payoffs. Our strategy to identify a causal effect has two key components. First, we implement an individual fixed effects strategy which allows us to control for all time-invariant heterogeneity. The remaining time variant heterogeneity is unlikely to be correlated with changes in the local crime environment given the well-documented political origins of the Mexican Drug War. We also show supporting evidence in this regard. The second component of our identification strategy is to use an intent-to-treat approach to shield our estimates from endogenous migration. Our findings indicate that exposure to greater local-area violent crime results in increased risk aversion. This effect is not driven by changes in financial circumstances, but may be explained instead by heightened fear of victimization. Nonetheless, we find that having greater economic resources mitigate the impact. This may be due to individuals with greater economic resources being able to avoid crime by affording better transportation or security at work.

The third chapter, co-authored with Duncan Thomas, evaluates whether attitudes toward deferred gratification change after having children. For this study we also exploit the MxFLS, which elicits attitudes toward deferred gratification (commonly known as time discounting) by asking individuals to choose between hypothetical payments at different points in time. We implement a difference-in-difference estimator to control for all time-invariant heterogeneity and show that our results are robust to the inclusion of time varying characteristics likely correlated with child birth. We find that becoming a mother increases time discounting especially in the first two years after childbirth and in particular for those women without a spouse at home. Having additional children does not have an effect and the effect for men seems to go in the opposite direction. These heterogeneous effects suggest that child rearing may affect time discounting due to generated stress or not fully anticipated spending needs.

The Political Economy of Climate Adaptation and Environmental Health: The Case of Ethiopia

The environment affects our health, livelihoods, and the social and political institutions within which we interact. Indeed, nearly a quarter of the global disease burden is attributed to environmental factors, and many of these factors are exacerbated by global climate change. Thus, the central research question of this dissertation is: How do people cope with and adapt to uncertainty, complexity, and change of environmental and health conditions? Specifically, I ask how institutional factors, risk aversion, and behaviors affect environmental health outcomes. I further assess the role of social capital in climate adaptation, and specifically compare individual and collective adaptation. I then analyze how policy develops accounting for both adaptation to the effects of climate and mitigation of climate-changing emissions. In order to empirically test the relationships between these variables at multiple levels, I combine multiple methods, including semi-structured interviews, surveys, and field experiments, along with health and water quality data. This dissertation uses the case of Ethiopia, Africa’s second-most populous nation, which has a large rural population and is considered very vulnerable to climate change. My fieldwork included interviews and institutional data collection at the national level, and a three-year study (2012-2014) of approximately 400 households in 20 villages in the Ethiopian Rift Valley. I evaluate the theoretical relationships between households, communities, and government in the process of adaptation to environmental stresses. Through my analyses, I demonstrate that water source choice varies by individual risk aversion and institutional context, which ultimately has implications for environmental health outcomes. I show that qualitative measures of trust predict cooperation in adaptation, consistent with social capital theory, but that measures of trust are negatively related with private adaptation by the individual. Finally, I describe how Ethiopia had some unique characteristics, significantly reinforced by international actors, that led to the development of an extensive climate policy, and yet with some challenges remaining for implementation. These results suggest a potential for adaptation through the interactions among individuals, communities, and government in the search for transformative processes when confronting environmental threats and climate change.

Fearonomics and the Role of Nigeria's Private Sector in the Nigerian Ebola Response

Background: Outbreaks of infectious diseases such as Ebola have dramatic economic impacts on affected nations due to significant direct costs and indirect costs, as well as increased expenditure by the government to meet the health and security crisis. Despite its dense population, Nigeria was able to contain the outbreak swiftly and was declared Ebola free on 13th October 2014. Although Nigeria’s Ebola containment success was multifaceted, the private sector played a key role in Nigeria’s fight against Ebola. An epidemic of a disease like Ebola, not only consumes health resources but also detrimentally disrupts trade and travel to impact both public and private sector resulting in the ‘fearonomic’ effect of the contagion. In this thesis, I have defined ‘fearonomics’ or the ‘fearonomic effects’ of a disease as the intangible and intangible economic effects of both informed and misinformed aversion behavior exhibited by individuals, organizations, or countries during an outbreak. During an infectious disease outbreak, there is a significant potential for public-private sector collaborations that can help offset some of the government’s cost of controlling the epidemic.

Objective: The main objective of this study is to understand the ‘fearonomics’ of Ebola in Nigeria and to evaluate the role of the key private sector stakeholders in Nigeria’s Ebola response.

Methods: This retrospective qualitative study was conducted in Nigeria and utilizes grounded theory to look across different economic sectors in Nigeria to understand the impact of Ebola on Nigeria’s private sector and how it dealt with the various challenges posed by the disease and its ‘fearonomic effects'.

Results: Due to swift containment of Ebola in Nigeria, the economic impact of the disease was limited especially in comparison to the other Ebola-infected countries such as Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea. However, the 2014 Ebola outbreak had more than a just direct impact on the country’s economy and despite the swift containment, no economic sector was immune to the disease’s fearonomic impact. The potential scale of the fearonomic impact of a disease like Ebola was one of the key motivators for the private sector engagement in the Ebola response.

The private sector in Nigeria played an essential role in facilitating the country’s response to Ebola. The private sector not only provided in-cash donations but significant in-kind support to both the Federal and State governments during the outbreak. Swift establishment of an Ebola Emergency Operation Centre (EEOC) was essential to the country’s response and was greatly facilitated by the private sector, showcasing the crucial role of private sector in the initial phase of an outbreak. The private sector contributed to Nigeria’s fight against Ebola not only by donating material assets but by continuing operations and partaking in knowledge sharing and advocacy. Some sector such as the private health sector, telecom sector, financial sector, oil and gas sector played a unique role in orchestrating the Nigerian Ebola response and were among the first movers during the outbreak.

This paper utilizes the lessons from Nigeria’s containment of Ebola to highlight the potential of public-private partnerships in preparedness, response, and recovery during an outbreak.

Student Financial Aid:The Roles of Loans and Grants (Working Paper 37)

This paper addresses the roles of loans and grants as forms of student financial aid. It begins with a simple choice model where individuals decide to pursue post-secondary studies if i) the net benefits of doing so are positive and ii) no financing or liquidity constraints stand in their way. The effects of loans and grants on these two elements of the schooling decision are then discussed. It is argued that based on equity, efficiency, and fiscal considerations, loans are generally best suited for helping those who want to go but face financing constraints, whereas grants are more appropriate for increasing the incentives for individuals from disadvantaged backgrounds to further their studies. Loan subsidies, which make loans part-loan and part-grant, are also discussed, including how they might be used to address “debt aversion”. Given that subsidised loans have a grant (subsidy) element, while grants help overcome the credit constraints upon which loans are targeted, the paper then attempts to establish some general rules for providing loans, for subsidising the loans awarded, and for giving “pure” grants. It concludes with an application of these principles in the form of a recent proposal for reforming the student financial system in Canada. *