Risk and global change : developing scientific methods for advocacy and awareness raising

Les catastrophes sont souvent perçues comme des événements rapides et aléatoires. Si les déclencheurs peuvent être soudains, les catastrophes, elles, sont le résultat d'une accumulation des conséquences d'actions et de décisions inappropriées ainsi que du changement global. Pour modifier cette perception du risque, des outils de sensibilisation sont nécessaires. Des méthodes quantitatives ont été développées et ont permis d'identifier la distribution et les facteurs sous- jacents du risque.¦Le risque de catastrophes résulte de l'intersection entre aléas, exposition et vulnérabilité. La fréquence et l'intensité des aléas peuvent être influencées par le changement climatique ou le déclin des écosystèmes, la croissance démographique augmente l'exposition, alors que l'évolution du niveau de développement affecte la vulnérabilité. Chacune de ses composantes pouvant changer, le risque est dynamique et doit être réévalué périodiquement par les gouvernements, les assurances ou les agences de développement. Au niveau global, ces analyses sont souvent effectuées à l'aide de base de données sur les pertes enregistrées. Nos résultats montrent que celles-ci sont susceptibles d'être biaisées notamment par l'amélioration de l'accès à l'information. Elles ne sont pas exhaustives et ne donnent pas d'information sur l'exposition, l'intensité ou la vulnérabilité. Une nouvelle approche, indépendante des pertes reportées, est donc nécessaire.¦Les recherches présentées ici ont été mandatées par les Nations Unies et par des agences oeuvrant dans le développement et l'environnement (PNUD, l'UNISDR, la GTZ, le PNUE ou l'UICN). Ces organismes avaient besoin d'une évaluation quantitative sur les facteurs sous-jacents du risque, afin de sensibiliser les décideurs et pour la priorisation des projets de réduction des risques de désastres.¦La méthode est basée sur les systèmes d'information géographique, la télédétection, les bases de données et l'analyse statistique. Une importante quantité de données (1,7 Tb) et plusieurs milliers d'heures de calculs ont été nécessaires. Un modèle de risque global a été élaboré pour révéler la distribution des aléas, de l'exposition et des risques, ainsi que pour l'identification des facteurs de risque sous- jacent de plusieurs aléas (inondations, cyclones tropicaux, séismes et glissements de terrain). Deux indexes de risque multiples ont été générés pour comparer les pays. Les résultats incluent une évaluation du rôle de l'intensité de l'aléa, de l'exposition, de la pauvreté, de la gouvernance dans la configuration et les tendances du risque. Il apparaît que les facteurs de vulnérabilité changent en fonction du type d'aléa, et contrairement à l'exposition, leur poids décroît quand l'intensité augmente.¦Au niveau local, la méthode a été testée pour mettre en évidence l'influence du changement climatique et du déclin des écosystèmes sur l'aléa. Dans le nord du Pakistan, la déforestation induit une augmentation de la susceptibilité des glissements de terrain. Les recherches menées au Pérou (à base d'imagerie satellitaire et de collecte de données au sol) révèlent un retrait glaciaire rapide et donnent une évaluation du volume de glace restante ainsi que des scénarios sur l'évolution possible.¦Ces résultats ont été présentés à des publics différents, notamment en face de 160 gouvernements. Les résultats et les données générées sont accessibles en ligne (http://preview.grid.unep.ch). La méthode est flexible et facilement transposable à des échelles et problématiques différentes, offrant de bonnes perspectives pour l'adaptation à d'autres domaines de recherche.¦La caractérisation du risque au niveau global et l'identification du rôle des écosystèmes dans le risque de catastrophe est en plein développement. Ces recherches ont révélés de nombreux défis, certains ont été résolus, d'autres sont restés des limitations. Cependant, il apparaît clairement que le niveau de développement configure line grande partie des risques de catastrophes. La dynamique du risque est gouvernée principalement par le changement global.¦Disasters are often perceived as fast and random events. If the triggers may be sudden, disasters are the result of an accumulation of actions, consequences from inappropriate decisions and from global change. To modify this perception of risk, advocacy tools are needed. Quantitative methods have been developed to identify the distribution and the underlying factors of risk.¦Disaster risk is resulting from the intersection of hazards, exposure and vulnerability. The frequency and intensity of hazards can be influenced by climate change or by the decline of ecosystems. Population growth increases the exposure, while changes in the level of development affect the vulnerability. Given that each of its components may change, the risk is dynamic and should be reviewed periodically by governments, insurance companies or development agencies. At the global level, these analyses are often performed using databases on reported losses. Our results show that these are likely to be biased in particular by improvements in access to information. International losses databases are not exhaustive and do not give information on exposure, the intensity or vulnerability. A new approach, independent of reported losses, is necessary.¦The researches presented here have been mandated by the United Nations and agencies working in the development and the environment (UNDP, UNISDR, GTZ, UNEP and IUCN). These organizations needed a quantitative assessment of the underlying factors of risk, to raise awareness amongst policymakers and to prioritize disaster risk reduction projects.¦The method is based on geographic information systems, remote sensing, databases and statistical analysis. It required a large amount of data (1.7 Tb of data on both the physical environment and socio-economic parameters) and several thousand hours of processing were necessary. A comprehensive risk model was developed to reveal the distribution of hazards, exposure and risk, and to identify underlying risk factors. These were performed for several hazards (e.g. floods, tropical cyclones, earthquakes and landslides). Two different multiple risk indexes were generated to compare countries. The results include an evaluation of the role of the intensity of the hazard, exposure, poverty, governance in the pattern and trends of risk. It appears that the vulnerability factors change depending on the type of hazard, and contrary to the exposure, their weight decreases as the intensity increases.¦Locally, the method was tested to highlight the influence of climate change and the ecosystems decline on the hazard. In northern Pakistan, deforestation exacerbates the susceptibility of landslides. Researches in Peru (based on satellite imagery and ground data collection) revealed a rapid glacier retreat and give an assessment of the remaining ice volume as well as scenarios of possible evolution.¦These results were presented to different audiences, including in front of 160 governments. The results and data generated are made available online through an open source SDI (http://preview.grid.unep.ch). The method is flexible and easily transferable to different scales and issues, with good prospects for adaptation to other research areas. The risk characterization at a global level and identifying the role of ecosystems in disaster risk is booming. These researches have revealed many challenges, some were resolved, while others remained limitations. However, it is clear that the level of development, and more over, unsustainable development, configures a large part of disaster risk and that the dynamics of risk is primarily governed by global change.

Fever of unknown origin in a Swiss-born child: don't miss tuberculosis!

Tuberculosis incidence is low in Switzer land. We report here on a Swiss-born toddler. Tuberculosis manifested with a fever of unknown origin, mimicking an inflammatory or autoimmune disorder triggering a high dose of corticosteroid treatment. The disease went unrecognized for several weeks until development of a miliary tuberculosis with advanced central nervous system involvement. This case highlights the difficulties encountered in diagnosing tuberculosis and in identifying the origin of this case. It reminds us that this disease must never be forgotten when facing a child with persistent fever who must be screened for, before starting immunosuppressive therapy.

Prematurity, maternal stress and mother-child interactions.

OBJECTIVE: Previous studies have shown that premature birth and the immaturity of the child can affect the quality of the parent-child relationship. The present study examines the relationship between maternal and infant interactional behavior over time and infant perinatal risk factors as well as maternal perinatal recollected traumatic experience. Few studies have explored the relationship between maternal stress and the quality of parent-infant interaction. DESIGN: Mother-child interaction was recorded at 6 and 18 months of infant's age, in a population of 47 preterm infants (GA<34 weeks) and 25 full-term infants, born in 1998, during a play interaction. According to the Care Index, sensitivity, control and unresponsiveness have been used to code maternal interactional characteristics, and cooperation, compliance-compulsiveness, difficulty and passivity have been used to code the infant's interactional characteristics. The level of maternal stress was evaluated with the Perinatal Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Questionnaire (PPQ), and the infant's perinatal risk factors were assessed with the Perinatal Risk Inventory (PERI). RESULTS: Mothers of high-risk infants, as well as mothers that had experienced traumatic stress in the perinatal period, were less sensitive and more controlling at 6 months. The interactional behavior of the preterm infant was different from that of the full-term infant at 18 months of age, and was correlated with maternal traumatic stress but not with perinatal risk factors. CONCLUSION: These results underline the importance of maternal traumatic experience related to premature birth and its potential long lasting influence on mother-child interactional behavior.

Type I osteogenesis imperfecta and multiple osteochondromas in the same child.

A male infant showed a humeral diaphysis fracture at 5 months of age and a distal tibial physis fracture at 2 years of age. A specialized consultant ruled out child abuse. This child had the characteristic features of type I osteogenesis imperfecta: blue sclerae, osseous fragility, and presumably autosomal dominant inheritance, as his father suffered from similar disorders. Later on, multiple painful osteochondromas were also found and some of these were surgically treated. The child's mother showed several peripheral osteochondromas. We describe the follow-up of this patient up to the age of 18 years. To our knowledge, the fortuitous association of these two inherited conditions has not been reported in medical literature.

The Child Occupational Self Assessment (COSA, version 2.1) : lasten toimintamahdollisuuksien itsearviointi COSA:n esittely ja suomentamisprosessi

Tämän opinnäytetyön tarkoituksena on aloittaa lapsille ja nuorille suunnatun The Child Occupational Self Assessment (COSA, version 2.1) itsearviointimenetelmän suomenkielisen version käännöstyö. COSA on asiakaslähtöinen itsearviointi, jolla kartoitetaan lasten ja nuorten kokemusta toiminnallisesta pätevyydestään ja jokapäiväisten toimintojen tärkeydestä heille. COSA pohjaa Inhimillisen toiminnan malliin ja sen toteutus seuraa asiakaslähtöistä teoriaa. COSA:n avulla voidaan asettaa toimintaterapialle tavoitteet ja tarkastella niiden toteutumista. Työssämme suomennamme arviointimenetelmän nimen muotoon; Lasten toimintamahdollisuuksien itsearviointi COSA. Arviointimenetelmän käännöstyö tehdään Helsingin ammattikorkeakoulu Stadian toimintaterapian koulutusohjelmalle. Opinnäytetyössä esittelemme ensin arviointia ja tavoitteiden asettamista lasten toimintaterapiassa sekä itsearvioinnin käyttämistä arviointimenetelmänä. Esittelemme COSA itsearviointimenetelmän sekä sen taustalla vaikuttavat Inhimillisen toiminnan mallin sisällön ja asiakaslähtöisyyden. Kartoitamme myös The Child Occupational Self Assessment (COSA, version 2.1 )itsearviointimenetelmän kehittymistä, sitä edeltäneitä arviointimenetelmiä ja COSA:sta aiemmin tehtyjä tutkimuksia. Opinnäytetyössä suomennamme COSA:n arviointilomakkeen. Arviointilomakkeessa on 25 lasten ja nuorten toiminnallista pätevyyttä ja jokapäiväisten toimintojen tärkeyttä kartoittava väittämää. Suomentamisprosessissa selvitämme COSA:n arviointilomakkeen väittämien suomennosten ymmärrettävyyden onnistumista kahdeksan käyttökokeiluun ja haastatteluun osallistuvan lapsen avulla. Saimme arviointilomakkeen suomentamisprosessiin apua neljältä lasten kanssa työskentelevältä toimintaterapeutilta sekä koulutusohjelmamme koulutuspäälliköltä. Käyttökokeiluiden sekä toimintaterapeuttien palautteiden avulla viimeistelimme suomennetun arviointilomakkeen väittämät. Opinnäytetyön lopuksi pohdimme arviointilomakkeen suomentamisprosessin vaiheita sekä mahdollisia jatkotutkimusehdotuksia. Luovutimme Lasten toimintamahdollisuuksien itsearviointi COSA:n arviointilomakkeen koulutusohjelmamme käyttöön ja mahdollisten jatkotutkimusten kohteeksi.

Cervical nerve root synovial sarcoma in a child with chromosomal (X;18) translocation. Case report and review of the literature.

We report on an 11-year-old female with a history of cervicobrachialgia and progressive weakness of the right arm. Cervical spine MRI showed an enhancing heterogeneous intradural mass occupying the right C6-C7 foramen. She underwent a right C6-C7 foraminotomy with a complete macroscopic removal of the lesion. Pathological examination revealed a synovial sarcoma. Treatment was completed by chemotherapy and proton radiotherapy, and the girl remained free of symptoms for 3 years. After appearance of new symptoms, a local recurrence was confirmed, and despite aggressive treatment with salvage chemotherapy and radiotherapy, the disease progressed beyond medical control, and the child died, 6 years after diagnosis. Early recognition of this rare entity compared to its more benign differential diagnosis is crucial, as an aggressive management is needed.

When is a child with status epilepticus likely to have Dravet syndrome?

PURPOSE: To identify clinical risk factors for Dravet syndrome (DS) in a population of children with status epilepticus (SE). MATERIAL AND METHODS: Children aged between 1 month and 16 years with at least one episode of SE were referred from 6 pediatric neurology centers in Switzerland. SE was defined as a clinical seizure lasting for more than 30min without recovery of normal consciousness. The diagnosis of DS was considered likely in previously healthy patients with seizures of multiple types starting before 1 year and developmental delay on follow-up. The presence of a SCN1A mutation was considered confirmatory for the diagnosis. Data such as gender, age at SE, SE clinical presentation and recurrence, additional seizure types and epilepsy diagnosis were collected. SCN1A analyses were performed in all patients, initially with High Resolution Melting Curve Analysis (HRMCA) and then by direct sequencing on selected samples with an abnormal HRMCA. Clinical and genetic findings were compared between children with DS and those with another diagnosis, and statistical methods were applied for significance analysis. RESULTS: 71 children with SE were included. Ten children had DS, and 61 had another diagnosis. SCN1A mutations were found in 12 of the 71 patients (16.9%; ten with DS, and two with seizures in a Generalized Epilepsy with Febrile Seizures+(GEFS+) context). The median age at first SE was 8 months in patients with DS, and 41 months in those with another epilepsy syndrome (p<0.001). Nine of the 10 DS patients had their initial SE before 18 months. Among the 26 patients aged 18 months or less at initial SE, the risk of DS was significantly increased for patients with two or more episodes (56.3%), as compared with those who had only one episode (0.0%) (p=0.005). CONCLUSION: In a population of children with SE, patients most likely to have DS are those who present their initial SE episode before 18 months, and who present with recurrent SE episodes.

Rousseau's Child: Preschoolers Expect Strangers to Favor Prosocial Actions

Modern thinking about human nature is notoriously divided between two contradictory notions: The Hobbesian tradition portrays men as driven by selfish desires, while the Rousseauian tradition recognizes altruistic proclivities as truemotivations to cooperate. We tested preschoolers' predictions about the prosocial or antisocial manner in which people would behave toward each other. Four stories were presented to 3- and 4-year-old children. In each story, the protagonists could either cooperate, act in terms of their own interests, or adopt a behavior unrelated to the ongoing scenario. Children as young as 3 years of age expected the protagonists to behave prosocially - and even more so if the protagonists were female. The results suggest that, even at an early age, children are inclined to adopt a "Rousseau-like" stance rather than a "suspicious" or "pessimistic" Hobbesian stance.

Family Alliance as a Moderator of the Link Between Maternal Postpartum Depression and Child Symptoms Assessed by Both Parents

We investigated the moderating effect of family relationships on the links between maternal postpartum depression and child symptoms in a low-risk community sample of families with 3-month-old infants (n = 57). The level of maternal depression was assessed by the Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale from a clinical interview, child symptoms by the Symptom Check List completed by both parents, and family relationships by direct observation of father-mother-baby interactions (Lausanne Trilogue Play). Families were categorized as high coordination or low coordination from their overall coordination level throughout the play. Results showed no significant links between maternal depression level and child symptoms reported by both parents. Mothers with a high depressive level in high coordination families tended to report more symptoms in their child than did mothers with lower depressive scores, whereas this link was not found in low coordination families. Prevention perspectives and clinical implications of these results are discussed.

Traumatic symptoms in sexually abused children : implications for school counselors

School counselors have a duty to formulate strategies that aid in the detection and prevention of child sexual abuse (American School Counselor Association, 2003). School counselors are charged with helping sexually abused children by recognizing sexual abuse indicators based on a child's symptomology and/or behavior, and understanding how this trauma may affect children in the school setting. Mandated reporting issues, talking with children and adolescents about sexual abuse suspicions, and understanding trauma symptoms and their contribution to the difficulties that sexually abused children have in school are highlighted. In addition, how school counselors can collaborate with clinicians treating sexually abused children through role-appropriate advocacy, intervention, and aftercare strategies is described.

Associations of baroreflex sensitivity, heart rate variability, and initial orthostatic hypotension with prenatal and recent postnatal methylmercury exposure in the Seychelles Child Development Study at age 19 years.

BACKGROUND: A few studies have suggested an association between prenatal exposure to methylmercury and decreased heart rate variability (HRV) related to autonomic heart function, but no study has examined this association using baroreflex sensitivity (BRS). In this study we assessed the distribution of BRS and immediate orthostatic hypotension (IOH) in young Seychellois adults and their associations with exposure to prenatal and recent postnatal methylmercury. METHODS: Subjects in the Seychelles Child Development Study (SCDS) main cohort were evaluated at age 19 years. Non-invasive beat-to-beat blood pressure (BP) monitoring (Finapres, Ohmeda) was performed at rest and during active standing in 95 consecutive subjects. Recent postnatal mercury exposure was measured in subjects' hair at the age of 19 years and prenatal exposure in maternal hair grown during pregnancy. BRS was estimated by sequence analysis to identify spontaneous ascending and descending BP ramps. HRV was estimated by the following markers: PNN50 (relative numbers of normal-to-normal intervals which are shorter by more than 50 ms than the immediately following normal-to-normal intervals); rMSSD (root mean of the squared sum of successive interval differences); LF/HF (low frequency/high frequency component ratio); ratio of the mean expiratory/inspiratory RR intervals (EI ratio); and the ratio between the longest RR interval 30 s after active standing and the shortest RR interval at 15 s (Max30/Min15). IOH was estimated by the deepest BP fall within the first 15 s after active standing up. RESULTS: Prenatal MeHg exposures were similar in boys and girls (6.7±4.3, 6.7±3.8 ng/g) but recent postnatal mercury levels were higher in males than females (11.2±5.8 vs 7.9±4.3 ng/g, p=0.003). Markers of autonomic heart rate control were within the normal range (BRS: 24.8±7 ms/mm Hg, PNN50: 24.9±6.8%, rMSSD: 68±22, LF/HF: 0.61±0.28) in both sexes. After standing, 51.4% of subjects had a transient systolic BP drop>40 mm Hg, but only 5.3% reported dizziness or had syncope. Prenatal and recent postnatal MeHg levels, overall, were not associated with BRS, E/I ratio, PNN50, rMSSD, LF/HF ratio, Max30/Min15 ratio, and IOH. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides no support for the hypothesis that prenatal or recent postnatal MeHg exposure from fish consumption is associated with impaired autonomic heart rate control.