Climate variability of the mid- and high-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in ensemble simulations from 1500 to 2000 AD

To increase the sparse knowledge of long-term Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate variability, we assess an ensemble of 4 transient simulations over the last 500 yr performed with a state-of-the-art atmosphere ocean general circulation model. The model is forced with reconstructions of solar irradiance, greenhouse gas (GHG) and volcanic aerosol concentrations. A 1990 control simulation shows that the model is able to represent the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and to some extent the South Pacific Dipole (SPD) and the Zonal Wave 3 (ZW3). During the past 500 yr we find that SPD and ZW3 variability remain stable, whereas SAM shows a significant shift towards its positive state during the 20th century. Regional temperatures over South America are strongly influenced by changing both GHG concentrations and volcanic eruptions, whereas precipitation shows no significant response to the varying external forcing. For temperature this stands in contrast to proxy records, suggesting that SH climate is dominated by internal variability rather than external forcing. The underlying dynamics of the temperature changes generally point to a combination of several modes, thus, hampering the possibilities of regional reconstructing the modes from proxy records. The linear imprint of the external forcing is as expected, i.e. a warming for increase in the combined solar and GHG forcing and a cooling after volcanic eruptions. Dynamically, only the increase in SAM with increased combined forcing is simulated.

Mid-Holocene Climate and Culture Change in the South Central Ande

This chapter reviews the history of study and the current status of Mid-Holocene climatic and cultural change in the South Central Andes, which host a wide range of different habitats from Pacific coastal areas up to extremely harsh cold and dry environments of the high mountain plateau, the altiplano or the puna. Paleoenvironmental information reveals high amplitude and rapid changes in effective moisture during the Holocene period and, consequently, dramatically changing environmental conditions. Therefore, this area is suitable to study the response of hunting and gathering societies to environmental changes, because the smallest variations in the climatic conditions have large impacts on resources and the living space of humans. This chapter analyzes environmental and paleoclimatic information from lake sediments, ice cores, pollen profiles, and geomorphic processes and relates these with the cultural and geographic settlement patterns of human occupation in the different habitats in the area of southern Peru, southwest Bolivia, northwest Argentina, and north Chile and puts in perspective of the early and late Holocene to present a representative range of environmental and cultural changes. It has been found that the largest changes took place around 9000 cal yr BP when the humid early Holocene conditions were replaced by extremely arid but highly variable climatic conditions. These resulted in a marked decrease of human occupation, “ecological refuges,” increased mobility, and an orientation toward habitats with relatively stable resources (such as the coast, the puna seca, and “ecological refuges”).

The effects of a changing climate on root respiration of woody plants in sugar maple forests and northern peatlands

Global climate change might significantly impact future ecosystems. The purpose of this thesis was to investigate potential changes in woody plant fine root respiration in response to a changing climate. In a sugar maple dominated northern hardwood forest, the soil was experimentally warmed (+4 °C) to determine if the tree roots could metabolically acclimate to warmer soil conditions. After one and a half years of soil warming, there was an indication of slight acclimation in the fine roots of sugar maple, helping the ecosystem avoid excessive C loss to the atmosphere. In a poor fen northern peatland in northern Michigan, the impacts of water level changes on woody plant fine root respiration were investigated. In areas of increased and also decreased water levels, there were increases in the CO2 efflux from ecosystem fine root respiration. These studies show the importance of investigating further the impacts climate change may have on C balance in northern ecosystems.

INSTANTANEOUS PHOTOSYNTHETIC RESPONSE TO TEMPERATURE OF MATURE FOREST CANOPIES AND EXPERIMENTALLY WARMED SEEDLINGS

Tropical trees have been shown to be more susceptible to warming compared to temperate species, and have shown growth and photosynthetic declines at elevated temperatures as little as 3oC above ambient. However, regional and global vegetation models lack the data needed to accurately represent physiological response to increased temperatures in tropical forests. We compared the instantaneous photosynthetic responses to elevated temperatures of four mature tropical rainforest tree species in Puerto Rico and the temperate broadleaf species sugar maple (Acer saccharum) in Michigan. Contrary to expectations, leaves in the upper canopy of both temperate and tropical forests had temperature optima that are already exceeded by mean daily leaf temperatures. This indicates that tropical and temperate forests are already seeing photosynthesis decline at mid-day temperature. This decline may worsen as air temperatures rise with climate change if trees are unable to acclimate, increasing the likelihood that forests may shift from carbon sinks to sources. A secondary study was conducted on experimentally warmed sugar maple seedlings to determine if photosynthesis had been able to acclimate to +5oC air temperature over four years. Species abundance models had predicted a decline of sugar maple within the Upper Peninsula of Michigan over the next 100 years, due to elevated temperature and altered precipitation. Instantaneous photosynthetic temperature response curves on both control and heated seedlings showed that the differences between treatments were not statistically significant, though there was a 16% increase in temperature optima and a 3% increase in maximum rates of photosynthesis in warmed plots. Though evidence of acclimation was not significant, the seedlings did not fare poorly as the models suggest.

Response of temperate grasslands at different altitudes to simulated summer drought differed but scaled with annual precipitation

Water is an important resource for plant life. Since climate scenarios for Switzerland predict an average reduction of 20% in summer precipitation until 2070, understanding ecosystem responses to water shortage, e.g. in terms of plant productivity, is of major concern. Thus, we tested the effects of simulated summer drought on three managed grasslands along an altitudinal gradient in Switzerland from 2005 to 2007, representing typical management intensities at the respective altitude. We assessed the effects of experimental drought on above- and below-ground productivity, stand structure (LAI and vegetation height) and resource use (carbon and water). Responses of community above-ground productivity to reduced precipitation input differed among the three sites but scaled positively with total annual precipitation at the sites (R2=0.85). Annual community above-ground biomass productivity was significantly reduced by summer drought at the alpine site receiving the least amount of annual precipitation, while no significant decrease (rather an increase) was observed at the pre-alpine site receiving highest precipitation amounts in all three years. At the lowland site (intermediate precipitation sums), biomass productivity significantly decreased in response to drought only in the third year, after showing increased abundance of a drought tolerant weed species in the second year. No significant change in below-ground biomass productivity was observed at any of the sites in response to simulated summer drought. However, vegetation carbon isotope ratios increased under drought conditions, indicating an increase in water use efficiency. We conclude that there is no general drought response of Swiss grasslands, but that sites with lower annual precipitation seem to be more vulnerable to summer drought than sites with higher annual precipitation, and thus site-specific adaptation of management strategies will be needed, especially in regions with low annual precipitation.

Species-specific stomatal response of trees to drought - a link to vegetation dynamics?

Question: Is stomatal regulation specific for climate and tree species, and does it reveal species-specific responses to drought? Is there a link to vegetation dynamics? Location: Dry inner alpine valley, Switzerland Methods: Stomatal aperture (θE) of Pinus sylvestris, Quercus pubescens, Juniperus communis and Picea abies were continuously estimated by the ratio of measured branch sap flow rates to potential transpiration rates (adapted Penman-Monteith single leaf approach) at 10-min intervals over four seasons. Results: θE proved to be specific for climate and species and revealed distinctly different drought responses: Pinus stomata close disproportionately more than neighbouring species under dry conditions, but has a higher θE than the other species when weather was relatively wet and cool. Quercus keeps stomata more open under drought stress but has a lower θE under humid conditions. Juniperus was most drought-tolerant, whereas Picea stomata close almost completely during summer. Conclusions: The distinct microclimatic preferences of the four tree species in terms of θE strongly suggest that climate (change) is altering tree physiological performances and thus species-specific competitiveness. Picea and Pinus currently live at the physiological limit of their ability to withstand increasing temperature and drought intensities at the sites investigated, whereas Quercus and Juniperus perform distinctly better. This corresponds, at least partially, with regional vegetation dynamics: Pinus has strongly declined, whereas Quercus has significantly increased in abundance in the past 30 years. We conclude that θE provides an indication of a species' ability to cope with current and predicted climate.

Imminent ocean acidification in the Arctic projected with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model

Ocean acidification from the uptake of anthropogenic carbon is simulated for the industrial period and IPCC SRES emission scenarios A2 and B1 with a global coupled carbon cycle-climate model. Earlier studies identified seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite, a mineral phase of calcium carbonate, as a key variable governing impacts on corals and other shell-forming organisms. Globally in the A2 scenario, water saturated by more than 300%, considered suitable for coral growth, vanishes by 2070 AD (CO2≈630 ppm), and the ocean volume fraction occupied by saturated water decreases from 42% to 25% over this century. The largest simulated pH changes worldwide occur in Arctic surface waters, where hydrogen ion concentration increases by up to 185% (ΔpH=−0.45). Projected climate change amplifies the decrease in Arctic surface mean saturation and pH by more than 20%, mainly due to freshening and increased carbon uptake in response to sea ice retreat. Modeled saturation compares well with observation-based estimates along an Arctic transect and simulated changes have been corrected for remaining model-data differences in this region. Aragonite undersaturation in Arctic surface waters is projected to occur locally within a decade and to become more widespread as atmospheric CO2 continues to grow. The results imply that surface waters in the Arctic Ocean will become corrosive to aragonite, with potentially large implications for the marine ecosystem, if anthropogenic carbon emissions are not reduced and atmospheric CO2 not kept below 450 ppm.

Lessons for Science from the "Year without a Summer" of 1816. What does it take for science to respond to climate change?

Science is responding in manifold ways to current climate change. What are the perquisites for response, and how can we structure the response? By studying the historical climatic event “Year without a Summer” of 1816 and by relating to Fleck’s theory of genesis and development of a scientific fact, we posit that responding refers to making interlinkages between different notions of climatic change.

Safety climate and its association with office type and team involvement in primary care

OBJECTIVE To assess differences in safety climate perceptions between occupational groups and types of office organization in primary care. METHODS Primary care physicians and nurses working in outpatient offices were surveyed about safety climate. Explorative factor analysis was performed to determine the factorial structure. Differences in mean climate scores between staff groups and types of office were tested. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine predictors for a 'favorable' safety climate. RESULTS 630 individuals returned the survey (response rate, 50%). Differences between occupational groups were observed in the means of the 'team-based error prevention'-scale (physician 4.0 vs. nurse 3.8, P < 0.001). Medical centers scored higher compared with single-handed offices and joint practices on the 'team-based error prevention'-scale (4.3 vs. 3.8 vs. 3.9, P < 0.001) but less favorable on the 'rules and risks'-scale (3.5 vs. 3.9 vs. 3.7, P < 0.001). Characteristics on the individual and office level predicted favorable 'team-based error prevention'-scores. Physicians (OR = 0.4, P = 0.01) and less experienced staff (OR 0.52, P = 0.04) were less likely to provide favorable scores. Individuals working at medical centers were more likely to provide positive scores compared with single-handed offices (OR 3.33, P = 0.001). The largest positive effect was associated with at least monthly team meetings (OR 6.2, P < 0.001) and participation in quality circles (OR 4.49, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Results indicate that frequent quality circle participation and team meetings involving all team members are effective ways to strengthen safety climate in terms of team-based strategies and activities in error prevention.

Atmospheric CO₂ response to volcanic eruptions: The role of ENSO, season, and variability

Tropical explosive volcanism is one of the most important natural factors that significantly impact the climate system and the carbon cycle on annual to multi-decadal time scales. The three largest explosive eruptions in the last 50�years�Agung, El Chichón, and Pinatubo�occurred in spring/summer in conjunction with El Niño events and left distinct negative signals in the observational temperature and CO2 records. However, confounding factors such as seasonal variability and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may obscure the forcing-response relationship. We determine for the first time the extent to which initial conditions, i.e., season and phase of the ENSO, and internal variability influence the coupled climate and carbon cycle response to volcanic forcing and how this affects estimates of the terrestrial and oceanic carbon sinks. Ensemble simulations with the Earth System Model (Climate System Model 1.4-carbon) predict that the atmospheric CO2 response is �60 larger when a volcanic eruption occurs during El Niño and in winter than during La Niña conditions. Our simulations suggest that the Pinatubo eruption contributed 11�±�6 to the 25�Pg terrestrial carbon sink inferred over the decade 1990�1999 and �2�±�1 to the 22�Pg oceanic carbon sink. In contrast to recent claims, trends in the airborne fraction of anthropogenic carbon cannot be detected when accounting for the decadal-scale influence of explosive volcanism and related uncertainties. Our results highlight the importance of considering the role of natural variability in the carbon cycle for interpretation of observations and for data-model intercomparison.

Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.

Long-term climate change commitment and reversibility: An EMIC Intercomparison

This paper summarizes the results of an intercomparison project with Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) undertaken in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The focus is on long-term climate projections designed to 1) quantify the climate change commitment of different radiative forcing trajectories and 2) explore the extent to which climate change is reversible on human time scales. All commitment simulations follow the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their extensions to year 2300. Most EMICs simulate substantial surface air temperature and thermosteric sea level rise commitment following stabilization of the atmospheric composition at year-2300 levels. The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is weakened temporarily and recovers to near-preindustrial values in most models for RCPs 2.6-6.0. The MOC weakening is more persistent for RCP8.5. Elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions after 2300 results in slowly decreasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. At year 3000 atmospheric CO2 is still at more than half its year-2300 level in all EMICs for RCPs 4.5-8.5. Surface air temperature remains constant or decreases slightly and thermosteric sea level rise continues for centuries after elimination of CO2 emissions in all EMICs. Restoration of atmospheric CO2 from RCP to preindustrial levels over 100-1000 years requires large artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere and does not result in the simultaneous return to preindustrial climate conditions, as surface air temperature and sea level response exhibit a substantial time lag relative to atmospheric CO2.

Temperature and Resource Availability May Interactively Affect Over-Wintering Success of Juvenile Fish in a Changing Climate

The predicted global warming may affect freshwater systems at several organizational levels, from organism to ecosystem. Specifically, in temperate regions, the projected increase of winter temperatures may have important effects on the over-winter biology of a range of organisms and especially for fish and other ectothermic animals. However, temperature effects on organisms may be directed strongly by resource availability. Here, we investigated whether over-winter loss of biomass and lipid content of juvenile roach (Rutilus rutilus) was affected by the physiologically relatively small (2-5°C) changes of winter temperatures predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), under both natural and experimental conditions. This was investigated in combination with the effects of food availability. Finally, we explored the potential for a correlation between lake temperature and resource levels for planktivorous fish, i.e., zooplankton biomass, during five consecutive winters in a south Swedish lake. We show that small increases in temperature (+2°C) affected fish biomass loss in both presence and absence of food, but negatively and positively respectively. Temperature alone explained only a minor part of the variation when food availability was not taken into account. In contrast to other studies, lipid analyses of experimental fish suggest that critical somatic condition rather than critical lipid content determined starvation induced mortality. Our results illustrate the importance of considering not only changes in temperature when predicting organism response to climate change but also food-web interactions, such as resource availability and predation. However, as exemplified by our finding that zooplankton over-winter biomass in the lake was not related to over-winter temperature, this may not be a straightforward task.

Paleoclimate data-model comparison and the role of climate forcings over the past 1500 years

The past 1500 years provide a valuable opportunity to study the response of the climate system to external forcings. However, the integration of paleoclimate proxies with climate modeling is critical to improving the understanding of climate dynamics. In this paper, a climate system model and proxy records are therefore used to study the role of natural and anthropogenic forcings in driving the global climate. The inverse and forward approaches to paleoclimate data–model comparison are applied, and sources of uncertainty are identified and discussed. In the first of two case studies, the climate model simulations are compared with multiproxy temperature reconstructions. Robust solar and volcanic signals are detected in Southern Hemisphere temperatures, with a possible volcanic signal detected in the Northern Hemisphere. The anthropogenic signal dominates during the industrial period. It is also found that seasonal and geographical biases may cause multiproxy reconstructions to overestimate the magnitude of the long-term preindustrial cooling trend. In the second case study, the model simulations are compared with a coral δ18O record from the central Pacific Ocean. It is found that greenhouse gases, solar irradiance, and volcanic eruptions all influence the mean state of the central Pacific, but there is no evidence that natural or anthropogenic forcings have any systematic impact on El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The proxy climate relationship is found to change over time, challenging the assumption of stationarity that underlies the interpretation of paleoclimate proxies. These case studies demonstrate the value of paleoclimate data–model comparison but also highlight the limitations of current techniques and demonstrate the need to develop alternative approaches.

European summer temperature response to annually dated volcanic eruptions over the past nine centuries

The drop in temperature following large volcanic eruptions has been identified as an important component of natural climate variability. However, due to the limited number of large eruptions that occurred during the period of instrumental observations, the precise amplitude of post-volcanic cooling is not well constrained. Here we present new evidence on summer temperature cooling over Europe in years following volcanic eruptions. We compile and analyze an updated network of tree-ring maximum latewood density chronologies, spanning the past nine centuries, and compare cooling signatures in this network with exceptionally long instrumental station records and state-of-the-art general circulation models. Results indicate post-volcanic June–August cooling is strongest in Northern Europe 2 years after an eruption (−0.52 ± 0.05 °C), whereas in Central Europe the temperature response is smaller and occurs 1 year after an eruption (−0.18 ± 0.07 °C). We validate these estimates by comparison with the shorter instrumental network and evaluate the statistical significance of post-volcanic summer temperature cooling in the context of natural climate variability over the past nine centuries. Finding no significant post-volcanic temperature cooling lasting longer than 2 years, our results question the ability of large eruptions to initiate long-term temperature changes through feedback mechanisms in the climate system. We discuss the implications of these findings with respect to the response seen in general circulation models and emphasize the importance of considering well-documented, annually dated eruptions when assessing the significance of volcanic forcing on continental-scale temperature variations.