Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

Effects of six carbohydrate sources on dog diet digestibility and post-prandial glucose and insulin response

The effects of six extruded diets with different starch sources (cassava flour, brewer`s rice, corn, sorghum, peas or lentils) on dog total tract apparent digestibility and glycemic and insulinemic response were investigated. The experiment was carried out on thirty-six dogs with six dogs per diet in a completely randomized design. The diets containing brewer`s rice and cassava flour presented the greatest digestibility of dry matter, organic matter and gross energy (p < 0.05), followed by corn and sorghum; pea and lentil diets had the lowest. Starch digestibility was greater than 98% in all diets and was greater for brewer`s rice and cassava flour than for lentils and peas diets (p < 0.05). Dogs` immediate post-prandial glucose and insulin responses (AUC <= 30 min) were greater for brewer`s rice, corn, and cassava flour diets (p < 0.05), and later meal responses (AUC >= 30 min) were greater for sorghum, lentil and pea diets (p < 0.05). Variations in diet digestibility and post-prandial response can be explained by differences in chemical composition of each starch source including fibre content and starch granule structure. The nutritional particularities of each starch ingredient can be explored through diet formulations designed to modulate glycemic response. However, more studies are required to support these.

Effects of six carbohydrate sources on diet digestibility and postprandial glucose and insulin responses in cats

The effects of diets with different starch sources on the total tract apparent digestibility and glucose and insulin responses in cats were investigated. Six experimental diets consisting of 35% starch were extruded, each containing one of the following ingredients: cassava flour, brewers rice, corn, sorghum, peas, or lentils. The experiment was carried out on 36 cats with 6 replications per diet in a completely randomized block design. The brewers rice diet offered greater DM, OM, and GE digestibility than the sorghum, corn, lentil, and pea diets (P < 0.05). For starch digestibility, the brewers rice diet had greater values (98.6%) than the sorghum (93.9%), lentil (95.2%), and pea (96.3%) diets (P < 0.05); however, starch digestibility was > 93% for all the diets, proving that despite the low carbohydrate content of carnivorous diets, cats can efficiently digest this nutrient when it is properly processed into kibble. Mean and maximum glucose concentration and area under the glucose curve were greater for the corn-based diet than the cassava flour, sorghum, lentil, and pea diets (P < 0.05). The corn-based diets led to greater values for the mean glucose incremental concentration (10.2 mg/dL), maximum glucose incremental concentration (24.8 mg/dL), and area under the incremental glucose curve (185.5 mg.dL(-1).h(-1)) than the lentil diet (2.9 mg/dL, 3.1 mg/dL, and -40.4 mg.dL(-1).h(-1), respectively; P < 0.05). When compared with baseline values, only the corn diet stimulated an increase in the glucose response, occurring at 4 and 10 h postmeal (P < 0.05). The corn-based diet resulted in greater values for maximum incremental insulin concentration and area under the incremental insulin curve than the lentil-based diet (P < 0.05). However, plasma insulin concentrations rose in relation to the basal values for cats fed corn, sorghum, pea, and brewers rice diets (P < 0.05). Variations in diet digestibility and postprandial response can be explained by differences in the chemical composition of the starch source, including fiber content and granule structure, and also differences in the chemical compositions of the diets. The data suggest that starch has less of an effect on the cat postprandial glucose and insulin responses than on those of dogs and humans. This can be explained by the metabolic peculiarities of felines, which may slow and prolong starch digestion and absorption, leading to the delayed, less pronounced effects on their blood responses.