Analyzing Multiple Outcomes: Is it Really Worth the use of Multivariate Linear Regression?

In health related research it is common to have multiple outcomes of interest in a single study. These outcomes are often analysed separately, ignoring the correlation between them. One would expect that a multivariate approach would be a more efficient alternative to individual analyses of each outcome. Surprisingly, this is not always the case. In this article we discuss different settings of linear models and compare the multivariate and univariate approaches. We show that for linear regression models, the estimates of the regression parameters associated with covariates that are shared across the outcomes are the same for the multivariate and univariate models while for outcome-specific covariates the multivariate model performs better in terms of efficiency.

Oral Contraceptive Use and Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Multiple Sclerosis

Experimental and clinical data suggest a role of sex steroids in the pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis (MS). Scant information is available about the potential effect of oral contraceptive (OC) use on the prognosis of the disease. We aimed to evaluate this. The study population consisted of 132 women with relapsing-remitting MS before receiving disease modifying treatment and a mean disease duration 6.2 (SD 5.1) years. Three groups of patients were distinguished according to their OC behavior: [1] never-users, patients who never used OC [2] past-users, patients who stopped OC use before disease onset, and [3] after-users, those who used these drugs after disease onset. Multiple linear and logistic regression models were used to analyze the association between oral contraceptive use and annualized relapse rates, disability accumulation and severity of the disease. After-user patients had lower Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) and Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS) values than never users (p<0.001 and p=0.002, respectively) and past users (p=0.010 and p=0.002, respectively). These patients were also more likely to have a benign disease course (MSSS<2.5) than never and past users together (OR: 4.52, 95%CI: 2.13-9.56, p<0.001). This effect remained significant after adjustment for confounders, including smoking and childbirths (OR: 2.97, 95%CI: 1.24, 6.54, p=0.011 and for MSSS β: -1.04; 95% C.I. -1.78, -0.30, p=0.006). These results suggest that OC use in women with relapsing-remitting MS is possible associated with a milder disabling disease course.

RISK FACTORS OF HIV-1 VERTICAL TRANSMISSION (VT) AND THE INFLUENCE OF ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY (ART) IN PREGNANCY OUTCOME

In the absence of intervention, the rate of vertical transmission of HIV can range from 15-45%. With the inclusion of antiretroviral drugs during pregnancy and the choice of delivery route this amounts to less than 2%. However ARV use during pregnancy has generated several questions regarding the adverse effects of the gestational and neonatal outcome. This study aims to analyze the risk factors for vertical transmission of HIV-1 seropositive pregnant women living in Rio Grande and the influence of the use of ARVs in pregnancy outcome. Among the 262 pregnant women studied the rate of vertical transmission of HIV was found to be 3.8%. Regarding the VT, there was a lower risk of transmission when antiretroviral drugs were used and prenatal care was conducted at the referral service. However, the use of ART did not influence the outcome of pregnancy. However, initiation of prenatal care after the first trimester had an influence on low birth weight, as well as performance of less than six visits increased the risk of prematurity. Therefore, the risk factors analyzed in this study appear to be related to the realization of inadequate pre-natal and maternal behavior.

DENGUE DURING PREGNANCY: ASSOCIATION WITH LOW BIRTH WEIGHT AND PREMATURITY

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of dengue virus infection during pregnancy and its correlation with low birth weight, prematurity, and asphyxia. A non-concurrent cohort study reveals the association of dengue during pregnancy with prematurity and low birth weight, when birth occurred during the maternal-fetal viremia period (p = 0.016 and p < 0.0001, respectively).

Food Allergy and Anaphylaxis in Infants and Preschool-Age Children

Food allergy (FA) prevalence data in infants and preschool-age children are sparse, and proposed risk factors lack confirmation. In this study, 19 children’s day care centers (DCC) from 2 main Portuguese cities were selected after stratification and cluster analysis. An ISAAC’s (International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood) derived health questionnaire was applied to a sample of children attending DCCs. Outcomes were FA parental report and anaphylaxis. Logistic regression was used to explore potential risk factors for reported FA. From the 2228 distributed questionnaires, 1217 were included in the analysis (54.6%). Children’s median age was 3.5 years, and 10.8% were described as ever having had FA. Current FA was reported in 5.7%. Three (0.2%) reports compatible with anaphylaxis were identified. Reported parental history of FA, personal history of atopic dermatitis, and preterm birth increased the odds for reported current FA. A high prevalence of parental-perceived FA in preschool-age children was identified. Risk factor identification may enhance better prevention.

Clinical Outcomes and Genetic Expression Profile in Human Liver Graft Dysfunction During Ischemia/Reperfusion Injury

Introduction. This study aims to compare the molecular gene expression during ischemia reperfusion injury. Several surgical times were considered: in the beginning of the harvesting (T0), at the end of the cold ischemia period (T1), and after reperfusion (T2) and compared with graft dysfunction after liver transplant (OLT). Methods. We studied 54 patients undergoing OLT. Clinical, laboratory data, and histologic data (Suzuki classification) as well as the Survival Outcomes Following Liver Transplantation (SOFT) score were used and compared with the molecular gene expression of the following genes: Interleukin (IL)-1b, IL-6, tumor necrosis factor-a, perforin, E-selectin (SELE), Fas-ligand, granzyme B, heme oxygenase-1, and nitric oxide synthetase. Results. Fifteen patients presented with graft dysfunction according to SOFT criteria. No relevant data were obtained by comparing the variables graft dysfunction and histologic variables. We observed a statistically significant relation between SELE at T0 (P ¼ .013) and IL-1b at T0 (P ¼ .028) and early graft dysfunction. Conclusions. We conclude that several genetically determined proinflammatory expressions may play a critical role in the development of graft dysfunction after OLT.

Acute Kidney Injury after Pediatric Cardiac Surgery: Risk Factors and Outcomes. Proposal for a Predictive Model

Objectives: To characterize the epidemiology and risk factors for acute kidney injury (AKI) after pediatric cardiac surgery in our center, to determine its association with poor short-term outcomes, and to develop a logistic regression model that will predict the risk of AKI for the study population. Methods: This single-center, retrospective study included consecutive pediatric patients with congenital heart disease who underwent cardiac surgery between January 2010 and December 2012. Exclusion criteria were a history of renal disease, dialysis or renal transplantation. Results: Of the 325 patients included, median age three years (1 day---18 years), AKI occurred in 40 (12.3%) on the first postoperative day. Overall mortality was 13 (4%), nine of whom were in the AKI group. AKI was significantly associated with length of intensive care unit stay, length of mechanical ventilation and in-hospital death (p<0.01). Patients’ age and postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were included in the logistic regression model as predictor variables. The model accurately predicted AKI in this population, with a maximum combined sensitivity of 82.1% and specificity of 75.4%. Conclusions: AKI is common and is associated with poor short-term outcomes in this setting. Younger age and higher postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were powerful predictors of renal injury in this population. The proposed model could be a useful tool for risk stratification of these patients.

The Effect of Long-Chain Polyunsaturated Fatty Acids Intake During Pregnancy on Adiposity of Healthy Full-Term Offspring at Birth

OBJECTIVE: The adjusted effect of long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acid (LCPUFA) intake during pregnancy on adiposity at birth of healthy full-term appropriate-for-gestational age neonates was evaluated. STUDY DESIGN: In a cross-sectional convenience sample of 100 mother and infant dyads, LCPUFA intake during pregnancy was assessed by food frequency questionnaire with nutrient intake calculated using Food Processor Plus. Linear regression models for neonatal body composition measurements, assessed by air displacement plethysmography and anthropometry, were adjusted for maternal LCPUFA intakes, energy and macronutrient intakes, prepregnancy body mass index and gestational weight gain. RESULT: Positive associations between maternal docosahexaenoic acid intake and ponderal index in male offspring (β=0.165; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.031-0.299; P=0.017), and between n-6:n-3 LCPUFA ratio intake and fat mass (β=0.021; 95% CI: 0.002-0.041; P=0.034) and percentage of fat mass (β=0.636; 95% CI: 0.125-1.147; P=0.016) in female offspring were found. CONCLUSION: Using a reliable validated method to assess body composition, adjusted positive associations between maternal docosahexaenoic acid intake and birth size in male offspring and between n-6:n-3 LCPUFA ratio intake and adiposity in female offspring were found, suggesting that maternal LCPUFA intake strongly influences fetal body composition.

Volume hospitalar e outcomes : uma análise a dados administrativos portugueses

RESUMO - Objetivos: Estudos anteriores demonstraram a existência de uma relação inversa entre melhores outcomes e volume hospitalar. Tendo este fenómeno em consideração, o objetivo deste estudo foi analisar esta relação a um nível populacional em Portugal. Métodos: Análise da base de dados Portuguesa dos GDH relativos ao ano financeiro de 2009. Todas as STA e STJ foram contabilizadas e critérios de exclusão determinados, para selecionar duas amostras homogéneas, analisadas por volume hospitalar. O volume hospitalar foi definido em três grupos: HVB, HVM, HVE de acordo com o volume anual de procedimentos efetuado por cada hospital individual durante o período do estudo. Os outcomes avaliados incluíram a mortalidade, presença de pelo menos uma complicação cirúrgica, estadia prolongada assim como a média de dias de internamento. A idade e sexo foram controlados como possíveis fatores de confundimento. Resultados: A investigação principal consistiu na análise de 4615 STA e 5904 STJ. Os resultados indicam que os eventos adversos (mortalidade e complicações cirúrgicas) são pouco comuns nestes procedimentos, produzindo resultados sem significância estatística. A estadia prolongada estabeleceu uma clara e significativa relação inversa com o volume hospitalar. A estadia prolongada foi superior em hospitais de volume baixo (STA OR 2.71; STJ OR 2.17) e hospitais de volume médio (STA OR 1.72; STJ OR 1.73) quando comparados com hospitais de volume elevado. Os dias de internamento médios produziram uma associação semelhante, sendo possível estimar quase oito milhões e meio de euros de custos evitáveis no ano de 2009, em ambos os procedimentos. Conclusões: O volume hospitalar não apresentou relações significativas com a mortalidade e complicações cirúrgicas, devido ao baixo número de eventos adversos registados. Verificou-se, no entanto, uma associação significativa com os dias de internamento e estadia prolongada. As STA e STJ realizadas em hospitais de volume elevado poderão reduzir custos, ao diminuir os dias de internamento.

Outcomes of communication competence: A study on a Portuguese restaurant chain

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Pattern of acquisition of rotavirus antibody in children followed up from birth to the age of three years

Nine hundred and forty-eight serum samples from 83 children living in Belem, Brazil, collected'within their first three years of life, were testedfor the presence of group- specific rotavirus-antibody by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) blocking-test. Passively transferred maternal antibody lasted about two and half months; subsequentely, low levels of rotavirus antibody started to appear at seven months, reaching a peak at eleven months of age. From one year onwards positivity gradually increased, reaching highest values at 34 months of life. Individual responses were examined in sera from 61 children who were followed up since birth to three years of age: 38 (62,3%) ofthem developed a long-term immunity following first infection; eleven (18.0%) children developed a short-term immunity after first infection by rotavirus; seven (11.5%) had no antibody response within their first three years of life; and 5 (8.2%) showed positive antibody response from birth to three years old.

Relação entre despesas em saúde e a saúde das populações : análise da base de dados da OCDE 2012

RESUMO - Introdução: A despesa em saúde aumentou consideravelmente nas últimas décadas na maioria dos países industrializados. Por outro lado, os indicadores de saúde melhoraram. A evidência empírica sobre a relação entre as despesas em saúde e a saúde das populações tem sido inconclusiva. Este estudo aborda a relação entre as despesas em saúde e a saúde das populações através de dados agregados para 34 países para o período 1980-2010. Metodologia: Utilizou-se o coeficiente de correlação de Pearson para avaliar a correlação entre as variáveis explicativas e os indicadores de saúde. Procedeuse ainda à realização de uma regressão multivariada com dados em painel para cada indicador de saúde utilizado como variável dependente: esperança de vida à nascença e aos 65 anos para mulheres e homens, anos de vida potencialmente perdidos para mulheres e homens e mortalidade infantil. A principal variável explicativa utilizada foi a despesa em saúde, mas consideraram-se também vários fatores de confundimento, nomeadamente a riqueza, fatores estilo de vida, e oferta de cuidados. Resultados: A despesa per capita tem impacto nos indicadores de saúde mas ao adicionarmos a variável PIB per capita deixa de ser estatisticamente significativa. Outros fatores têm um impacto significativo para quase todos os indicadores de saúde utilizados: consumo de álcool e tabaco, gordura, o número de médicos e a imunização, confirmando vários resultados da literatura. Conclusão: Os resultados vão ao encontro de alguns estudos que afirmam o impacto marginal das despesas em saúde e do progresso da medicina nos resultados em saúde desde os anos 80 nos países industrializados.

Referenda outcomes and the influence of polls: A social network feedback process

This paper proposes a model to explain the differences between outcomes of referenda and the voting trends suggested by polls. Two main effects are at stake. First, the evolution of the voters' attitudes is conditional on the public information made available to them. Second, the predisposition toward abstention among individuals within each voting group may be different. Our model describes how these two aspects of decision making may interact, showing how publicly available information may amplify the distinct tendency toward abstention between both groups and thus affect the outcome of the referendum.