948 resultados para BAYESIAN NETWORK


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Islanded operation, protection, reclosing and arc extinguishing are some of the challenging issues related to the connection of converter interfaced distributed generators (DGs) into a distribution network. The isolation of upstream faults in grid connected mode and fault detection in islanded mode using overcurrent devices are difficult. In the event of an arc fault, all DGs must be disconnected in order to extinguish the arc. Otherwise, they will continue to feed the fault, thus sustaining the arc. However, the system reliability can be increased by maximising the DG connectivity to the system: therefore, the system protection scheme must ensure that only the faulted segment is removed from the feeder. This is true even in the case of a radial feeder as the DG can be connected at various points along the feeder. In this paper, a new relay scheme is proposed which, along with a novel current control strategy for converter interfaced DGs, can isolate permanent and temporary arc faults. The proposed protection and control scheme can even coordinate with reclosers. The results are validated through PSCAD/EMTDC simulation and MATLAB calculations.

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Regional safety program managers face a daunting challenge in the attempt to reduce deaths, injuries, and economic losses that result from motor vehicle crashes. This difficult mission is complicated by the combination of a large perceived need, small budget, and uncertainty about how effective each proposed countermeasure would be if implemented. A manager can turn to the research record for insight, but the measured effect of a single countermeasure often varies widely from study to study and across jurisdictions. The challenge of converting widespread and conflicting research results into a regionally meaningful conclusion can be addressed by incorporating "subjective" information into a Bayesian analysis framework. Engineering evaluations of crashes provide the subjective input on countermeasure effectiveness in the proposed Bayesian analysis framework. Empirical Bayes approaches are widely used in before-and-after studies and "hot-spot" identification; however, in these cases, the prior information was typically obtained from the data (empirically), not subjective sources. The power and advantages of Bayesian methods for assessing countermeasure effectiveness are presented. Also, an engineering evaluation approach developed at the Georgia Institute of Technology is described. Results are presented from an experiment conducted to assess the repeatability and objectivity of subjective engineering evaluations. In particular, the focus is on the importance, methodology, and feasibility of the subjective engineering evaluation for assessing countermeasures.

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This paper considers the use of servo-mechanisms as part of a tightly integrated homogeneous Wireless Multi- media Sensor Network (WMSN). We describe the design of our second generation WMSN node platform, which has increased image resolution, in-built audio sensors, PIR sensors, and servo- mechanisms. These devices have a wide disparity in their energy consumption and in the information quality they return. As a result, we propose a framework that establishes a hierarchy of devices (sensors and actuators) within the node and uses frequent sampling of cheaper devices to trigger the activation of more energy-hungry devices. Within this framework, we consider the suitability of servos for WMSNs by examining the functional characteristics and by measuring the energy consumption of 2 analog and 2 digital servos, in order to determine their impact on overall node energy cost. We also implement a simple version of our hierarchical sampling framework to evaluate the energy consumption of servos relative to other node components. The evaluation results show that: (1) the energy consumption of servos is small relative to audio/image signal processing energy cost in WMSN nodes; (2) digital servos do not necessarily consume as much energy as is currently believed; and (3) the energy cost per degree panning is lower for larger panning angles.

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The proposals arising from the agreement reached between the Rudd government and the States and Territories (except Western Australia) in April 2010 represent the most fundamental realignment of health responsibilities since the creation of Medicare in 1984. They will change the health system, and the structures that will craft its future direction and design. These proposals will have a significant impact on Emergency Medicine; an impact from not only the system-wide effects of the proposals but also those that derive from the specific recommendations to create an activity-based funding mechanism for EDs, to implement the four hour rule and to develop a performance indicator framework for EDs. The present paper will examine the potential impact of the proposals on Emergency Medicine to inform those who work within the system and to help guide further developments. More work is required to better evaluate the proposals and to guide the design and development of specific reform instruments. Any such efforts should be based upon a proper analysis of the available evidence, and a structured approach to research and development so as to deliver on improved services to the community, and on improved quality and safety of emergency medical care.

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This paper describes the formalization and application of a methodology to evaluate the safety benefit of countermeasures in the face of uncertainty. To illustrate the methodology, 18 countermeasures for improving safety of at grade railroad crossings (AGRXs) in the Republic of Korea are considered. Akin to “stated preference” methods in travel survey research, the methodology applies random selection and laws of large numbers to derive accident modification factor (AMF) densities from expert opinions. In a full Bayesian analysis framework, the collective opinions in the form of AMF densities (data likelihood) are combined with prior knowledge (AMF density priors) for the 18 countermeasures to obtain ‘best’ estimates of AMFs (AMF posterior credible intervals). The countermeasures are then compared and recommended based on the largest safety returns with minimum risk (uncertainty). To the author's knowledge the complete methodology is new and has not previously been applied or reported in the literature. The results demonstrate that the methodology is able to discern anticipated safety benefit differences across candidate countermeasures. For the 18 at grade railroad crossings considered in this analysis, it was found that the top three performing countermeasures for reducing crashes are in-vehicle warning systems, obstacle detection systems, and constant warning time systems.