Aranyszabály helyett adósságfék - a német példa = Debt-brake instead of the golden rule - the case of Germany

Az Európai Unió megújuló gazdasági kormányzási rendszerének egyik meghatározó pillére a diszkrecionális gazdaságpolitikával szemben megfogalmazott szabályalapúság lesz. A minden korábbinál erősebb és vélhetően hatékonyabb szabályok bevezetésének legelkötelezettebb híve Németország. Az elmúlt évtizedekben a folyó költségvetési kiadások hiányból történő finanszírozásának tilalmát előíró aranyszabályt inkább kevesebb, mint több sikerrel alkalmazó Németország most arra vállalkozott, hogy nem csak saját hatáskörben vezeti be az ún. adósságféket, hanem követendő példaként állítja azt a többi tagország elé is. Írásunkban az aranyszabály, illetve az adósságfék előnyeit és hátrányait vesszük számba a német tapasztalatok felhasználásával. / === / The need to strengthen rules-based fiscal policy has emerged as a widely shared consensus amongst policy-makers in the recent economic and financial crisis. Germany has become the most devoted advocator of the new regime, where more innovative and effective fiscal rules are supposed to play an even bigger role than before. Germany supports such a move however not only in rhetoric but also in practice. It decided to abandon its several decade old golden rule and to adopt a more sophisticated one, the so-called debt-brake. This article provides a cost-benefit analysis of both the previous and the new fiscal rule.

The use of methane as automotive fuel – a step to sustainable economy?

The introduction of CNG (Compressed Natural Gas) as automotive fuel began in Italy as early as in mid- 1930s, and ever since the Italian market has always been highly advanced in this regard. Many other countries followed, some of them quite recently, but nevertheless with impressive results. The appeal of this automotive fuel is based on the fact that compared to gasoline, diesel and LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas), CNG is cleaner and cheaper; even more so, this fuel is renewable – it can be produced locally from biogas. Despite its obvious benefits, CNG is barely present in Hungary. This article provides an insight into the topic, highlights obstacles to introduction and suggests appropriate governmental steps. The information is intended to support the activities and the decision-making process of governmental officials, municipalities, car-fleet managers, car dealers and their service departments.

Az autóipar szerkezeti átrendeződése – Vállalati stratégiák és a válság hatásai (Structural change in the automotive industry – corporate strategies and the impact of the crisis)

Az írás a globális értékláncok élén álló autóipari cégek világgazdasági válságra adott reakcióit foglalja össze. Megállapítja, hogy a válságnak messze nincs vége: az iparág globális átrendeződése folytatódik. A globális értékláncokba sikeresen betagozódott közép-európai autóipari klaszter ezeknek a folyamatoknak mindmáig nyertese volt. Számolni kell azonban azzal, hogy továbbra is sok a technológiai és a piaci bizonytalanság: az új szereplők belépése, új üzleti modellek elterjedése hosszabb távon felboríthatja a jelenlegi status quo-t, és veszélyeztetheti a hagyományos autóipari befektetőiket munkabér-alapú versenyképességgel megtartani próbáló közép- és kelet-európai országok pozícióit. Az autóipari működő tőkét fogadó közép-kelet-európai országok számára hosszabb távon veszélyt jelenthet az autóipari üzleti modellek átalakulása, a gyártás teljes kiszervezése komplex gyártási szolgáltatást vállaló cégekhez, mivel ez esetben az értéklánc vezető vállalatai bezárhatják a régióban működő gyártóbázisaikat. Az értékláncok élén álló globális cégek „menekülés a minőségbe” stratégiája helyi szinten is követhető, követendő, a működő tőkét fogadó országok versenyképessége kizárólag a helyi leányvállalatok állandó „feljebb lépésével” tartható fenn. ______ This paper summarizes lead firms’ reactions to crisis in global automotive value chains. The paper advances five theses. Author argues that crisis is not over yet, the global restructuring of the industry continues. Actors in the CEE automotive cluster have successfully become integrated into global value chains and have thereby been the winners of past restructuring processes. Nevertheless, technological and market uncertainties prevail: entry of new economic actors and the diffusion of new business models may, in the long run, disrupt the current status quo and jeopardise the world economic position of CEE countries that have been relying solely on their labour cost advantages to sustain direct investment inflows in their automotive industries. In the long run the automotive industries of Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies may become threatened by the transformation of the prevailing automotive business model, the outsourcing of manufacturing and related support activities to complex manufacturing services providers, which could lead to the closure of lead firms’ manufacturing facilities in CEE. Lead firms’ increased focus on high quality high value adding activities strategy can and should be followed by local subsidiaries through a continuous strive for upgrading.

The Philippines in the Automotive Global Value Chain

This report uses the Duke CGGC Global Value Chain (GVC) framework to examine the role of the Philippines in the global automotive industry and identify opportunities for upgrading. The country’s strength in the sector is in electrical and electronic automotive components, with approximately two-thirds of its US$3.98 billion exports in 2014 falling in one of these categories. The Philippines has a particularly strong foothold in wire harnesses, exports of which increased by 129% from 2007 to 2014 to allow it to become the world’s fourth largest global exporter. The prominence of the cluster affords the country a number of upgrading opportunities moving forward. Otherwise, the relatively small size of the domestic market has constrained the development of the industry, with local companies unable to generate the economies of scale necessary to compete in an increasingly consolidated global environment.

Investigation of the effects of flow conditions at rotor inlet on mixed flow turbine performance for automotive applications

Current trends in the automotive industry have placed increased importance on engine downsizing for passenger vehicles. Engine downsizing often results in reduced power output and turbochargers have been relied upon to restore the power output and maintain drivability. As improved power output is required across a wide range of engine operating conditions, it is necessary for the turbocharger to operate effectively at both design and off-design conditions. One off-design condition of considerable importance for turbocharger turbines is low velocity ratio operation, which refers to the combination of high exhaust gas velocity and low turbine rotational speed. Conventional radial flow turbines are constrained to achieve peak efficiency at the relatively high velocity ratio of 0.7, due the requirement to maintain a zero inlet blade angle for structural reasons. Several methods exist to potentially shift turbine peak efficiency to lower velocity ratios. One method is to utilize a mixed flow turbine as an alternative to a radial flow turbine. In addition to radial and circumferential components, the flow entering a mixed flow turbine also has an axial component. This allows the flow to experience a non-zero inlet blade angle, potentially shifting peak efficiency to a lower velocity ratio when compared to an equivalent radial flow turbine.
This study examined the effects of varying the flow conditions at the inlet to a mixed flow turbine and evaluated the subsequent impact on performance. The primary parameters examined were average inlet flow angle, the spanwise distribution of flow angle across the inlet and inlet flow cone angle. The results have indicated that the inlet flow angle significantly influenced the degree of reaction across the rotor and the turbine efficiency. The rotor studied was a custom in-house design based on a state-of-the-art radial flow turbine design. A numerical approach was used as the basis for this investigation and the numerical model has been validated against experimental data obtained from the cold flow turbine test rig at Queen’s University Belfast. The results of the study have provided a useful insight into how the flow conditions at rotor inlet influence the performance of a mixed flow turbine.

Advanced Non-Destructive Inspections focused on composite materials application for the automotive and marine sectors

The goal of this master thesis is to explain in detail the application of Non-Destructive-Inspection on the Automotive and the Marine sectors. Nowadays, these two particular industries faces many challenges, including increased global competition, the need for higher performance, a reduction in costs and tighter environmental and safety requirements. The materials used for these applications play key roles in overcoming these challenges. So, also an NDI procedure need to be planned in order to avoid problems during the manufacturing process and the after sale life of the structures. The entire thesis work has been done in collaboration with Vetorix Engineering.

Analisi delle microstrutture generate su ingranaggi per uso automotive da processi di rettifica a secco

Il contenuto della tesi riguarda un progetto di ricerca avente come scopo l’eliminazione degli olii di rettifica dal processo di taglio, avviato da alcune aziende del territorio emiliano, con la collaborazione dell’Università di Bologna e di Genova. In particolare essa tratta la rettifica degli ingranaggi a secco, poiché molte aziende del territorio emiliano si occupano della produzione di macchine per la realizzazione degli ingranaggi, oppure della fabbricazione vera e propria degli stessi. Inoltre viene trattato con particolare attenzione uno dei problemi fondamentali che si possono manifestare con la rettifica: le bruciature. Viene eseguita un’analisi dettagliata delle microstrutture dei materiali e di quali sono gli effetti provocati dalle bruciature nel processo di rettifica a secco degli ingranaggi.

A long-term energy efficiency prediction model for the Brazilian automotive industry

According to law number 12.715/2012, Brazilian government instituted guidelines for a program named Inovar-Auto. In this context, energy efficiency is a survival requirement for Brazilian automotive industry from September 2016. As proposed by law, energy efficiency is not going to be calculated by models only. It is going to be calculated by the whole universe of new vehicles registered. In this scenario, the composition of vehicles sold in market will be a key factor on profits of each automaker. Energy efficiency and its consequences should be taken into consideration in all of its aspects. In this scenario, emerges the following question: which is the efficiency curve of one automaker for long term, allowing them to adequate to rules, keep balancing on investment in technologies, increasing energy efficiency without affecting competitiveness of product lineup? Among several variables to be considered, one can highlight the analysis of manufacturing costs, customer value perception and market share, which characterizes this problem as a multi-criteria decision-making. To tackle the energy efficiency problem required by legislation, this paper proposes a framework of multi-criteria decision-making. The proposed framework combines Delphi group and Analytic Hierarchy Process to identify suitable alternatives for automakers to incorporate in main Brazilian vehicle segments. A forecast model based on artificial neural networks was used to estimate vehicle sales demand to validate expected results. This approach is demonstrated with a real case study using public vehicles sales data of Brazilian automakers and public energy efficiency data.

Analysis of Automotive Cybersecurity - Attack surfaces and users’ privacy concerns

Modern automobiles are no longer just mechanical tools. The electronics and computing services they are shipping with are making them not less than a computer. They are massive kinetic devices with sophisticated computing power. Most of the modern vehicles are made with the added connectivity in mind which may be vulnerable to outside attack. Researchers have shown that it is possible to infiltrate into a vehicle’s internal system remotely and control the physical entities such as steering and brakes. It is quite possible to experience such attacks on a moving vehicle and unable to use the controls. These massive connected computers can be life threatening as they are related to everyday lifestyle. First part of this research studied the attack surfaces in the automotive cybersecurity domain. It also illustrated the attack methods and capabilities of the damages. Online survey has been deployed as data collection tool to learn about the consumers’ usage of such vulnerable automotive services. The second part of the research portrayed the consumers’ privacy in automotive world. It has been found that almost hundred percent of modern vehicles has the capabilities to send vehicle diagnostic data as well as user generated data to their manufacturers, and almost thirty five percent automotive companies are collecting them already. Internet privacy has been studies before in many related domain but no privacy scale were matched for automotive consumers. It created the research gap and motivation for this thesis. A study has been performed to use well established consumers privacy scale – IUIPC to match with the automotive consumers’ privacy situation. Hypotheses were developed based on the IUIPC model for internet consumers’ privacy and they were studied by the finding from the data collection methods. Based on the key findings of the research, all the hypotheses were accepted and hence it is found that automotive consumers’ privacy did follow the IUIPC model under certain conditions. It is also found that a majority of automotive consumers use the services and devices that are vulnerable and prone to cyber-attacks. It is also established that there is a market for automotive cybersecurity services and consumers are willing to pay certain fees to avail that.

Terminal defect analysis and classification methodology for automotive industry

The impact of end customer quality complaints with direct relationship with automotive components has presented negative trend at European level for the entire automotive industry. Thus, this research proposal is to concentrate efforts on the most important items of Pareto chart and understand the failure type and the mechanism involved, link and impact of the project and parameters on the process, ending it with the development of one of the company’s most desired tool, that hosted this project – European methodology of terminals defects classification, and listing real opportunities for improvement based on measurement and analysis of actual data. Through the development of terminals defects classification methodology, which is considered a valuable asset to the company, all the other companies of the YAZAKI’s group will be able to characterize terminals as brittle or ductile, in order to put in motion, more efficiently, all the other different existing internal procedures for the safeguarding of the components, improving manufacturing efficiency. Based on a brief observation, nothing can be said in absolute sense, concerning the failure causes. Base materials, project, handling during manufacture and storage, as well as the cold work performed by plastic deformation, all play an important role. However, it was expected that this failure has been due to a combination of factors, in detriment of the existence of a single cause. In order to acquire greater knowledge about this problem, unexplored by the company up to the date of commencement of this study, was conducted a thorough review of existing literature on the subject, real production sites were visited and, of course, the actual parts were tested in lab environment. To answer to many of the major issues raised throughout the investigation, were used extensively some theoretical concepts focused on the literature review, with a view to realizing the relationship existing between the different parameters concerned. Should here be stated that finding technical studies on copper and its alloys is really hard, not being given all the desirable information. This investigation has been performed as a YAZAKI Europe Limited Company project and as a Master Thesis for Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto, conducted during 9 months between 2012/2013.

A future dynamically reconfigurable automotive software system

Embedded software systems in vehicles are of rapidly increasing commercial importance for the automotive industry. Current systems employ a static run-time environment; due to the difficulty and cost involved in the development of dynamic systems in a high-integrity embedded control context. A dynamic system, referring to the system configuration, would greatly increase the flexibility of the offered functionality and enable customised software configuration for individual vehicles, adding customer value through plug-and-play capability, and increased quality due to its inherent ability to adjust to changes in hardware and software. We envisage an automotive system containing a variety of components, from a multitude of organizations, not necessarily known at development time. The system dynamically adapts its configuration to suit the run-time system constraints. This paper presents our vision for future automotive control systems that will be regarded in an EU research project, referred to as DySCAS (Dynamically Self-Configuring Automotive Systems). We propose a self-configuring vehicular control system architecture, with capabilities that include automatic discovery and inclusion of new devices, self-optimisation to best-use the processing, storage and communication resources available, self-diagnostics and ultimately self-healing. Such an architecture has benefits extending to reduced development and maintenance costs, improved passenger safety and comfort, and flexible owner customisation. Specifically, this paper addresses the following issues: The state of the art of embedded software systems in vehicles, emphasising the current limitations arising from fixed run-time configurations; and the benefits and challenges of dynamic configuration, giving rise to opportunities for self-healing, self-optimisation, and the automatic inclusion of users’ Consumer Electronic (CE) devices. Our proposal for a dynamically reconfigurable automotive software system platform is outlined and a typical use-case is presented as an example to exemplify the benefits of the envisioned dynamic capabilities.

Intelligent pipeline control - a simulation study in the automotive sector

Automotive producers are aiming to make their order fulfilment processes more flexible. Opening the pipeline of planned products for dynamic allocation to dealers/ customers is a significant step to be more flexible but the behaviour of such Virtual-Build-To-Order systems are complex to predict and their performance varies significantly as product variety levels change. This study investigates the potential for intelligent control of the pipeline feed, taking into account the current status of inventory (level and mix) and of the volume and mix of unsold products in the planning pipeline, as well as the demand profile. Five ‘intelligent’ methods for selecting the next product to be planned into the production pipeline are analysed using a discrete event simulation model and compared to the unintelligent random feed. The methods are tested under two conditions, firstly when customers must be fulfilled with the exact product they request, and secondly when customers trade-off a shorter waiting time for compromise in specification. The two forms of customer behaviour have a substantial impact on the performance of the methods and there are also significant differences between the methods themselves. When the producer has an accurate model of customer demand, methods that attempt to harmonise the mix in the system to the demand distribution are superior.

Configuring an open pipeline fulfilment system - a simulation study in an automotive context

Automotive producers are adopting multi-modal fulfillment models in which customers can be fulfilled by products from stock, by allocating as yet unmade products that are in the planning pipeline, or by building a product to order. This study explores how fulfillment is sensitive to several parameters of the system and how they interact with different methods for sequencing products into the production plan.