859 resultados para Analytical Model


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Background Cost-effectiveness studies have been increasingly part of decision processes for incorporating new vaccines into the Brazilian National Immunisation Program. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) in the universal childhood immunisation programme in Brazil. Methods A decision-tree analytical model based on the ProVac Initiative pneumococcus model was used, following 25 successive cohorts from birth until 5 years of age. Two strategies were compared: (1) status quo and (2) universal childhood immunisation programme with PCV10. Epidemiological and cost estimates for pneumococcal disease were based on National Health Information Systems and literature. A 'top-down' costing approach was employed. Costs are reported in 2004 Brazilian reals. Costs and benefits were discounted at 3%. Results 25 years after implementing the PCV10 immunisation programme, 10 226 deaths, 360 657 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), 433 808 hospitalisations and 5 117 109 outpatient visits would be avoided. The cost of the immunisation programme would be R$10 674 478 765, and the expected savings on direct medical costs and family costs would be R$1 036 958 639 and R$209 919 404, respectively. This resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of R$778 145/death avoided and R$22 066/DALY avoided from the society perspective. Conclusion The PCV10 universal infant immunisation programme is a cost-effective intervention (1-3 GDP per capita/DALY avoided). Owing to the uncertain burden of disease data, as well as unclear long-term vaccine effects, surveillance systems to monitor the long-term effects of this programme will be essential.

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Analysis of thermohaline properties and currents sampled at an anchor station in the Piacaguera Channel (Santos Estuary) in the austral winter was made in terms of tidal (neap and spring tidal cycles) and non-tidal conditions, with the objective to characterize the stratification, circulation and salt transport due to the fortnightly tidal modulation. Classical methods of observational data analysis of hourly and nearly synoptic observations and analytical simulations of nearly steady-state salinity and longitudinal velocity profiles were used. During the neap tidal cycle the flood (v<0) and ebb (v>0) velocities varied in the range of -0.20 m/s to 0.30 m/s associated with a small salinity variation from surface to bottom (26.4 psu to 30.7 psu). In the spring tidal cycle the velocities increased and varied in the range of -0.40 m/s to 0.45 m/s, but the salinity stratification remained almost unaltered. The steady-state salinity and velocity profiles simulated with an analytical model presented good agreement (Skill near 1.0), in comparison with the observational profiles. During the transitional fortnightly tidal modulation period there was no changes in the channel classification (type 2a - partially mixed and weakly stratified), because the potential energy rate was to low to enhance the halocline erosion. These results, associated with the high water column vertical stability (RiL > 20) and the low estuarine Richardson number (RiE = 1.6), lead to the conclusions: i) the driving mechanism for the estuary circulation and mixing was mainly balanced by the fresh water discharge and the tidal forcing associated with the baroclinic component of the gradient pressure force; ii) there was no changes in the thermohaline and circulation characteristics due to the forthnigtly tidal modulation; and iii) the nearly steady-state of the vertical salinity and velocity profiles were well simulated with a theoretical classical analytical model.

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The expansion of soybean cultivation into the Amazon in Brazil has potential hydrological effects at local to regional scales. To determine the impacts of soybean agriculture on hydrology, a comparison of net precipitation (throughfall, stemflow) in undisturbed tropical forest and soybean fields on the southern edge of the Amazon Basin in the state of Mato Grosso is needed. This study measured throughfall with troughs and stemflow with collar collectors during two rainy seasons. The results showed that in forest 91.6% of rainfall was collected as throughfall and 0.3% as stemflow, while in soybean fields with two-month old plants, 46.2% of rainfall was collected as throughfall and 9.0% as stemflow. Hence, interception of precipitation in soybean fields was far greater than in intact forests. Differences in throughfall, stemflow and net precipitation were found to be mainly associated with differences in plant structure and stem density in transitional forest and soybean cropland. Because rainfall interception in soybean fields is higher than previously believed and because both the area of cropland and the frequency of crop cycles (double cropping) are increasing rapidly, interception needs to be reconsidered in regional water balance models when consequences of land cover changes are analyzed in the Amazon soybean frontier region. Based on the continued expansion of soybean fields across the landscape and the finding that net precipitation is lower in soy agriculture, a reduction in water availability in the long term can be assumed. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Analysis of thermohaline properties and currents sampled at an anchor station in the Piaçaguera Channel (Santos Estuary) in the austral winter was made in terms of tidal (neap and spring tidal cycles) and non-tidal conditions, with the objective to characterize the stratification, circulation and salt transport due to the fortnightly tidal modulation. Classical methods of observational data analysis of hourly and nearly synoptic observations and analytical simulations of nearly steady-state salinity and longitudinal velocity profiles were used. During the neap tidal cycle the flood (v<0) and ebb (v>0) velocities varied in the range of -0.20 m/s to 0.30 m/s associated with a small salinity variation from surface to bottom (26.4 psu to 30.7 psu). In the spring tidal cycle the velocities increased and varied in the range of -0.40 m/s to 0.45 m/s, but the salinity stratification remained almost unaltered. The steady-state salinity and velocity profiles simulated with an analytical model presented good agreement (Skill near 1.0), in comparison with the observational profiles. During the transitional fortnightly tidal modulation period there was no changes in the channel classification (type 2a - partially mixed and weakly stratified), because the potential energy rate was to low to enhance the halocline erosion. These results, associated with the high water column vertical stability (RiL >20) and the low estuarine Richardson number (RiE=1.6), lead to the conclusions: i) the driving mechanism for the estuary circulation and mixing was mainly balanced by the fresh water discharge and the tidal forcing associated with the baroclinic component of the gradient pressure force; ii) there was no changes in the thermohaline and circulation characteristics due to the forthnigtly tidal modulation; and iii) the nearly steady-state of the vertical salinity and velocity profiles were well simulated with a theoretical classical analytical model.

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When compared to our Solar System, many exoplanet systems exhibit quite unusual planet configurations; some of these are hot Jupiters, which orbit their central stars with periods of a few days, others are resonant systems composed of two or more planets with commensurable orbital periods. It has been suggested that these configurations can be the result of a migration processes originated by tidal interactions of the planets with disks and central stars. The process known as planet migration occurs due to dissipative forces which affect the planetary semi-major axes and cause the planets to move towards to, or away from, the central star. In this talk, we present possible signatures of planet migration in the distribution of the hot Jupiters and resonant exoplanet pairs. For this task, we develop a semi-analytical model to describe the evolution of the migrating planetary pair, based on the fundamental concepts of conservative and dissipative dynamics of the three-body problem. Our approach is based on an analysis of the energy and the orbital angular momentum exchange between the two-planet system and an external medium; thus no specific kind of dissipative forces needs to be invoked. We show that, under assumption that dissipation is weak and slow, the evolutionary routes of the migrating planets are traced by the stationary solutions of the conservative problem (Birkhoff, Dynamical systems, 1966). The ultimate convergence and the evolution of the system along one of these modes of motion are determined uniquely by the condition that the dissipation rate is sufficiently smaller than the roper frequencies of the system. We show that it is possible to reassemble the starting configurations and migration history of the systems on the basis of their final states, and consequently to constrain the parameters of the physical processes involved.

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Two types of mesoscale wind-speed jet and their effects on boundary-layer structure were studied. The first is a coastal jet off the northern California coast, and the second is a katabatic jet over Vatnajökull, Iceland. Coastal regions are highly populated, and studies of coastal meteorology are of general interest for environmental protection, fishing industry, and for air and sea transportation. Not so many people live in direct contact with glaciers but properties of katabatic flows are important for understanding glacier response to climatic changes. Hence, the two jets can potentially influence a vast number of people. Flow response to terrain forcing, transient behavior in time and space, and adherence to simplified theoretical models were examined. The turbulence structure in these stably stratified boundary layers was also investigated. Numerical modeling is the main tool in this thesis; observations are used primarily to ensure a realistic model behavior. Simple shallow-water theory provides a useful framework for analyzing high-velocity flows along mountainous coastlines, but for an unexpected reason. Waves are trapped in the inversion by the curvature of the wind-speed profile, rather than by an infinite stability in the inversion separating two neutral layers, as assumed in the theory. In the absence of blocking terrain, observations of steady-state supercritical flows are not likely, due to the diurnal variation of flow criticality. In many simplified models, non-local processes are neglected. In the flows studied here, we showed that this is not always a valid approximation. Discrepancies between simulated katabatic flow and that predicted by an analytical model are hypothesized to be due to non-local effects, such as surface inhomogeneity and slope geometry, neglected in the theory. On a different scale, a reason for variations in the shape of local similarity scaling functions between studies is suggested to be differences in non-local contributions to the velocity variance budgets.

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Reinforced concrete columns might fail because of buckling of the longitudinal reinforcing bar when exposed to earthquake motions. Depending on the hoop stiffness and the length-over-diameter ratio, the instability can be local (in between two subsequent hoops) or global (the buckling length comprises several hoop spacings). To get insight into the topic, an extensive literary research of 19 existing models has been carried out including different approaches and assumptions which yield different results. Finite element fiberanalysis was carried out to study the local buckling behavior with varying length-over-diameter and initial imperfection-over-diameter ratios. The comparison of the analytical results with some experimental results shows good agreement before the post buckling behavior undergoes large deformation. Furthermore, different global buckling analysis cases were run considering the influence of different parameters; for certain hoop stiffnesses and length-over-diameter ratios local buckling was encountered. A parametric study yields an adimensional critical stress in function of a stiffness ratio characterized by the reinforcement configuration. Colonne in cemento armato possono collassare per via dell’instabilità dell’armatura longitudinale se sottoposte all’azione di un sisma. In funzione della rigidezza dei ferri trasversali e del rapporto lunghezza d’inflessione-diametro, l’instabilità può essere locale (fra due staffe adiacenti) o globale (la lunghezza d’instabilità comprende alcune staffe). Per introdurre alla materia, è proposta un’esauriente ricerca bibliografica di 19 modelli esistenti che include approcci e ipotesi differenti che portano a risultati distinti. Tramite un’analisi a fibre e elementi finiti si è studiata l’instabilità locale con vari rapporti lunghezza d’inflessione-diametro e imperfezione iniziale-diametro. Il confronto dei risultati analitici con quelli sperimentali mostra una buona coincidenza fino al raggiungimento di grandi spostamenti. Inoltre, il caso d’instabilità globale è stato simulato valutando l’influenza di vari parametri; per certe configurazioni di rigidezza delle staffe e lunghezza d’inflessione-diametro si hanno ottenuto casi di instabilità locale. Uno studio parametrico ha permesso di ottenere un carico critico adimensionale in funzione del rapporto di rigidezza dato dalle caratteristiche dell’armatura.

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The convergence of information technology and consumer electronics towards battery powered portable devices has increased the interest in high efficiency, low dissipation amplifiers. Class D amplifiers are the state of the art in low power consumption and high performance amplification. In this thesis we explore the possibility of exploiting nonlinearities introduced by the PWM modulation, by designing an optimized modulation law which scales its carrier frequency adaptively with the input signal's average power while preserving the SNR, thus reducing power consumption. This is achieved by means of a novel analytical model of the PWM output spectrum, which shows how interfering harmonics and their bandwidth affect the spectrum. This allows for frequency scaling with negligible aliasing between the baseband spectrum and its harmonics. We performed low noise power spectrum measurements on PWM modulations generated by comparing variable bandwidth, random test signals with a variable frequency triangular wave carrier. The experimental results show that power-optimized frequency scaling is both feasible and effective. The new analytical model also suggests a new PWM architecture that can be applied to digitally encoded input signals which are predistorted and compared with a cosine carrier, which is accurately synthesized by a digital oscillator. This approach has been simulated in a realistic noisy model and tested in our measurement setup. A zero crossing search on the obtained PWM modulation law proves that this approach yields an equivalent signal quality with respect to traditional PWM schemes, while entailing the use of signals whose bandwidth is remarkably smaller due to the use of a cosine instead of a triangular carrier.

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X-ray laser fluorescence spectroscopy of the 2s-2p transition in Li-like ions is promising to become a widely applicable tool to provide information on the nuclear charge radii of stable and radioactive isotopes. For performing such experiments at the Experimental Storage Ring ESR, and the future NESR within the FAIR Project, a grazing incidence pumped (GRIP) x-ray laser (XRL) was set up at GSI Darmstadt using PHELIX (Petawatt High Energy Laser for heavy Ions eXperiments). The experiments demonstrated that lasing using the GRIP geometry could be achieved with relatively low pump energy, a prerequisite for higher repetition rate. In the first chapter the need of a plasma XRL is motivated and a short history of the plasma XRL is presented. The distinctive characteristic of the GRIP method is the controlled deposition of the pump laser energy into the desired plasma density region. While up to now the analysis performed were mostly concerned with the plasma density at the turning point of the main pump pulse, in this thesis it is demonstrated that also the energy deposition is significantly modified for the GRIP method, being sensitive in different ways to a large number of parameters. In the second chapter, the theoretical description of the plasma evolution, active medium and XRL emission properties are reviewed. In addition an innovative analysis of the laser absorption in plasma which includes an inverse Bremsstrahlung (IB) correction factor is presented. The third chapter gives an overview of the experimental set-up and diagnostics, providing an analytical formula for the average and instantaneous traveling wave speed generated with a tilted, on-axis spherical mirror, the only focusing system used up to now in GRIP XRL. The fourth chapter describes the experimental optimization and results. The emphasis is on the effect of the incidence angle of the main pump pulse on the absorption in plasma and on output and gain in different lasing lines. This is compared to the theoretical results for two different incidence angles. Significant corrections for the temperature evolution during the main pump pulse due to the incidence angle are demonstrated in comparison to a simple analytical model which does not take into account the pumping geometry. A much better agreement is reached by the model developed in this thesis. An interesting result is also the appearance of a central dip in the spatially resolved keV emission which was observed in the XRL experiments for the first time and correlates well with previous near field imaging and plasma density profile measurements. In the conclusion also an outlook to the generation of shorter wavelength XRL’s is given.

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The optical resonances of metallic nanoparticles placed at nanometer distances from a metal plane were investigated. At certain wavelengths, these “sphere-on-plane” systems become resonant with the incident electromagnetic field and huge enhancements of the field are predicted localized in the small gaps created between the nanoparticle and the plane. An experimental architecture to fabricate sphere-on-plane systems was successfully achieved in which in addition to the commonly used alkanethiols, polyphenylene dendrimers were used as molecular spacers to separate the metallic nanoparticles from the metal planes. They allow for a defined nanoparticle-plane separation and some often are functionalized with a chromophore core which is therefore positioned exactly in the gap. The metal planes used in the system architecture consisted of evaporated thin films of gold or silver. Evaporated gold or silver films have a smooth interface with their substrate and a rougher top surface. To investigate the influence of surface roughness on the optical response of such a film, two gold films were prepared with a smooth and a rough side which were as similar as possible. Surface plasmons were excited in Kretschmann configuration both on the rough and on the smooth side. Their reflectivity could be well modeled by a single gold film for each individual measurement. The film has to be modeled as two layers with significantly different optical constants. The smooth side, although polycrystalline, had an optical response that was very similar to a monocrystalline surface while for the rough side the standard response of evaporated gold is retrieved. For investigations on thin non-absorbing dielectric films though, this heterogeneity introduces only a negligible error. To determine the resonant wavelength of the sphere-on-plane systems a strategy was developed which is based on multi-wavelength surface plasmon spectroscopy experiments in Kretschmann-configuration. The resonant behavior of the system lead to characteristic changes in the surface plasmon dispersion. A quantitative analysis was performed by calculating the polarisability per unit area /A treating the sphere-on-plane systems as an effective layer. This approach completely avoids the ambiguity in the determination of thickness and optical response of thin films in surface plasmon spectroscopy. Equal area densities of polarisable units yielded identical response irrespective of the thickness of the layer they are distributed in. The parameter range where the evaluation of surface plasmon data in terms of /A is applicable was determined for a typical experimental situation. It was shown that this analysis yields reasonable quantitative agreement with a simple theoretical model of the sphere-on-plane resonators and reproduces the results from standard extinction experiments having a higher information content and significantly increased signal-to-noise ratio. With the objective to acquire a better quantitative understanding of the dependence of the resonance wavelength on the geometry of the sphere-on-plane systems, different systems were fabricated in which the gold nanoparticle size, type of spacer and ambient medium were varied and the resonance wavelength of the system was determined. The gold nanoparticle radius was varied in the range from 10 nm to 80 nm. It could be shown that the polyphenylene dendrimers can be used as molecular spacers to fabricate systems which support gap resonances. The resonance wavelength of the systems could be tuned in the optical region between 550 nm and 800 nm. Based on a simple analytical model, a quantitative analysis was developed to relate the systems’ geometry with the resonant wavelength and surprisingly good agreement of this simple model with the experiment without any adjustable parameters was found. The key feature ascribed to sphere-on-plane systems is a very large electromagnetic field localized in volumes in the nanometer range. Experiments towards a quantitative understanding of the field enhancements taking place in the gap of the sphere-on-plane systems were done by monitoring the increase in fluorescence of a metal-supported monolayer of a dye-loaded dendrimer upon decoration of the surface with nanoparticles. The metal used (gold and silver), the colloid mean size and the surface roughness were varied. Large silver crystallites on evaporated silver surfaces lead to the most pronounced fluorescence enhancements in the order of 104. They constitute a very promising sample architecture for the study of field enhancements.

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Progress in miniaturization of electronic components and design of wireless systems paved the way towards ubiquitous and pervasive communications, enabling anywhere and anytime connectivity. Wireless devices present on, inside, around the human body are becoming commonly used, leading to the class of body-centric communications. The presence of the body with all its peculiar characteristics has to be properly taken into account in the development and design of wireless networks in this context. This thesis addresses various aspects of body-centric communications, with the aim of investigating network performance achievable in different scenarios. The main original contributions pertain to the performance evaluation for Wireless Body Area Networks (WBANs) at the Medium Access Control layer: the application of Link Adaptation to these networks is proposed, Carrier Sense Multiple Access with Collision Avoidance algorithms used for WBAN are extensively investigated, coexistence with other wireless systems is examined. Then, an analytical model for interference in wireless access network is developed, which can be applied to the study of communication between devices located on humans and fixed nodes of an external infrastructure. Finally, results on experimental activities regarding the investigation of human mobility and sociality are presented.

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A two-dimensional model to analyze the distribution of magnetic fields in the airgap of a PM electrical machines is studied. A numerical algorithm for non-linear magnetic analysis of multiphase surface-mounted PM machines with semi-closed slots is developed, based on the equivalent magnetic circuit method. By using a modular structure geometry, whose the basic element can be duplicated, it allows to design whatever typology of windings distribution. In comparison to a FEA, permits a reduction in computing time and to directly changing the values of the parameters in a user interface, without re-designing the model. Output torque and radial forces acting on the moving part of the machine can be calculated. In addition, an analytical model for radial forces calculation in multiphase bearingless Surface-Mounted Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors (SPMSM) is presented. It allows to predict amplitude and direction of the force, depending on the values of torque current, of levitation current and of rotor position. It is based on the space vectors method, letting the analysis of the machine also during transients. The calculations are conducted by developing the analytical functions in Fourier series, taking all the possible interactions between stator and rotor mmf harmonic components into account and allowing to analyze the effects of electrical and geometrical quantities of the machine, being parametrized. The model is implemented in the design of a control system for bearingless machines, as an accurate electromagnetic model integrated in a three-dimensional mechanical model, where one end of the motor shaft is constrained to simulate the presence of a mechanical bearing, while the other is free, only supported by the radial forces developed in the interactions between magnetic fields, to realize a bearingless system with three degrees of freedom. The complete model represents the design of the experimental system to be realized in the laboratory.

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Die Kapillarkraft entsteht durch die Bildung eines Meniskus zwischen zwei Festkörpen. In dieser Doktorarbeit wurden die Auswirkungen von elastischer Verformung und Flϋssigkeitadsorption auf die Kapillarkraft sowohl theoretisch als auch experimentell untersucht. Unter Verwendung eines Rasterkraftmikroskops wurde die Kapillarkraft zwischen eines Siliziumoxid Kolloids von 2 µm Radius und eine weiche Oberfläche wie n.a. Polydimethylsiloxan oder Polyisopren, unter normalen Umgebungsbedingungen sowie in variierende Ethanoldampfdrϋcken gemessen. Diese Ergebnisse wurden mit den Kapillarkräften verglichen, die auf einem harten Substrat (Silizium-Wafer) unter denselben Bedingungen gemessen wurden. Wir beobachteten eine monotone Abnahme der Kapillarkraft mit zunehmendem Ethanoldampfdruck (P) fϋr P/Psat > 0,2, wobei Psat der Sättigungsdampfdruck ist.rnUm die experimentellen Ergebnisse zu erklären, wurde ein zuvor entwickeltes analytisches Modell (Soft Matter 2010, 6, 3930) erweitert, um die Ethanoladsorption zu berϋcksichtigen. Dieses neue analytische Modell zeigte zwei verschiedene Abhängigkeiten der Kapillarkraft von P/Psat auf harten und weichen Oberflächen. Fϋr die harte Oberfläche des Siliziumwafers wird die Abhängigkeit der Kapillarkraft vom Dampfdruck vom Verhältnis der Dicke der adsorbierten Ethanolschicht zum Meniskusradius bestimmt. Auf weichen Polymeroberflächen hingegen hängt die Kapillarkraft von der Oberflächenverformung und des Laplace-Drucks innerhalb des Meniskus ab. Eine Abnahme der Kapillarkraft mit zunehmendem Ethanoldampfdruck hat demnach eine Abnahme des Laplace-Drucks mit zunehmendem Meniskusradius zur folge. rnDie analytischen Berechnungen, fϋr die eine Hertzsche Kontakt-deformation angenommen wurde, wurden mit Finit Element Methode Simulationen verglichen, welche die reale Deformation des elastischen Substrats in der Nähe des Meniskuses explizit berϋcksichtigen. Diese zusätzliche nach oben gerichtete oberflächenverformung im Bereich des Meniskus fϋhrt zu einer weiteren Erhöhung der Kapillarkraft, insbesondere fϋr weiche Oberflächen mit Elastizitätsmodulen < 100 MPa.rn

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Laser Shock Peening (LSP) is a surface enhancement treatment which induces a significant layer of beneficial compressive residual stresses up to several mm underneath the surface of metal components in order to improve the detrimental effects of crack growth behavior rate in it. The aim of this thesis is to predict the crack growth behavior of thin Aluminum specimens with one or more LSP stripes defining a compressive residual stress area. The LSP treatment has been applied as crack retardation stripes perpendicular to the crack growing direction, with the objective of slowing down the crack when approaching the LSP patterns. Different finite element approaches have been implemented to predict the residual stress field left by the laser treatment, mostly by means of the commercial software Abaqus/Explicit. The Afgrow software has been used to predict the crack growth behavior of the component following the laser peening treatment and to detect the improvement in fatigue life comparing to the specimen baseline. Furthermore, an analytical model has been implemented on the Matlab software to make more accurate predictions on fatigue life of the treated components. An educational internship at the Research and Technologies Germany- Hamburg department of Airbus helped to achieve knowledge and experience to write this thesis. The main tasks of the thesis are the following: -To up to date Literature Survey related to laser shock peening in metallic structures -To validate the FE models developed against experimental measurements at coupon level -To develop design of crack growth slow down in centered and edge cracked tension specimens based on residual stress engineering approach using laser peened patterns transversal to the crack path -To predict crack growth behavior of thin aluminum panels -To validate numerical and analytical results by means of experimental tests.

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The present study investigates the feasibility of a new application able to check the heart failure status in a patient through the estimation of the venous distension. In this way it would be possible to follow up patients, avoiding invasive or expensive exams such as cardiac catheterization and echocardiography. Moreover, the devices would also be able to diagnose the decline of the disease, in order to allow a new adaptation to therapy, and vice versa to check the improvement in the patient’s conditions after the CRT device implant. This thesis is essentially divided into three parts: an analytical model was used to obtain an estimation of the error committed for the calculation of the CSA and to understand how the accuracy and sensitivity depend on the different configurations of the electrodes and the catheter position inside the vein; secondly, an in-vitro experiment was carried out in order to verify the practical feasibility for these kinds of measurements, in a very simplified model; in the end, several animal experiments were done to test the in-vivo practicability of the proposed method. The obtained results showed the feasibility of this approach. In fact, the error committed in the estimation of CSA, during the animal experiments, can be considered acceptable (CSAerror_max ≈ -14%). Moreover, it has been demonstrated that the conductance catheter allows assessing, not only the vein CSA, but also the breathing of the animal.