993 resultados para sub-seasonal prediction
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Most of distribution generation and smart grid research works are dedicated to the study of network operation parameters, reliability among others. However, many of this research works usually uses traditional test systems such as IEEE test systems. This work proposes a voltage magnitude study in presence of fault conditions considering the realistic specifications found in countries like Brazil. The methodology considers a hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzyprobabilistic models and a remedial action algorithm which is based on optimal power flow. To illustrate the application of the proposed method, the paper includes a case study that considers a real 12 bus sub-transmission network.
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Most of distributed generation and smart grid research works are dedicated to network operation parameters studies, reliability, etc. However, many of these works normally uses traditional test systems, for instance, IEEE test systems. This paper proposes voltage magnitude and reliability studies in presence of fault conditions, considering realistic conditions found in countries like Brazil. The methodology considers a hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models and a remedial action algorithm which is based on optimal power flow. To illustrate the application of the proposed method, the paper includes a case study that considers a real 12-bus sub-transmission network.
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Dissertação apresentada para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Doutor em História (Especialidade em História Económica e Social Medieval)
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The respiratory viruses are recognized as the most frequent lower respiratory tract pathogens for infants and young children in developed countries but less is known for developing populations. The authors conducted a prospective study to evaluate the occurrence, clinical patterns, and seasonal trends of viral infections among hospitalized children with lower respiratory tract disease (Group A). The presence of respiratory viruses in children's nasopharyngeal was assessed at admission in a pediatric ward. Cell cultures and immunofluorescence assays were used for viral identification. Complementary tests included blood and pleural cultures conducted for bacterial investigation. Clinical data and radiological exams were recorded at admission and throughout the hospitalization period. To better evaluate the results, a non- respiratory group of patients (Group B) was also constituted for comparison. Starting in February 1995, during a period of 18 months, 414 children were included- 239 in Group A and 175 in Group B. In Group A, 111 children (46.4%) had 114 viruses detected while only 5 children (2.9%) presented viruses in Group B. Respiratory Syncytial Virus was detected in 100 children from Group A (41.8%), Adenovirus in 11 (4.6%), Influenza A virus in 2 (0.8%), and Parainfluenza virus in one child (0.4%). In Group A, aerobic bacteria were found in 14 cases (5.8%). Respiratory Syncytial Virus was associated to other viruses and/or bacteria in six cases. There were two seasonal trends for Respiratory Syncytial Virus cases, which peaked in May and June. All children affected by the virus were younger than 3 years of age, mostly less than one year old. Episodic diffuse bronchial commitment and/or focal alveolar condensation were the clinical patterns more often associated to Respiratory Syncytial Virus cases. All children from Group A survived. In conclusion, it was observed that Respiratory Syncytial Virus was the most frequent pathogen found in hospitalized children admitted for severe respiratory diseases. Affected children were predominantly infants and boys presenting bronchiolitis and focal pneumonias. Similarly to what occurs in other subtropical regions, the virus outbreaks peak in the fall and their occurrence extends to the winter, which parallels an increase in hospital admissions due to respiratory diseases.
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Hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection constitutes a major public health problem in Brazil. The transmission of HAV is primarily by fecal-oral route so the water is an important vehicle of HAV dissemination. There is a great incidence of acute cases of hepatitis A in some areas of Brazil however the seasonal variation of these cases was not documented. The aim of this study was to determine the seasonality of HAV infection in Rio de Janeiro. From January 1999 to December 2001, 1731 blood samples were collected at the National Reference Center for Hepatitis Viruses in Brazil (NRCHV). These samples were tested by a commercial enzyme-immunoassay to detect anti-HAV IgM antibodies. Yearly positive rates were 33.74% in 1999, 32.19% in 2000, and 30.63% in 2001. A seasonal variation was recognized with the highest incidence in spring and summer. Furthermore a seasonal increase in incidence of HAV infection was found during the rainy season (December to March) because the index of rains is very high. It is concluded that HAV infections occur all year round with a peak during hot seasons with great number of rains.
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This article investigates the limit cycle (LC) prediction of systems with backlash by means of the describing function (DF) when using discrete fractional-order (FO) algorithms. The DF is an approximate method that gives good estimates of LCs. The implementation of FO controllers requires the use of rational approximations, but such realizations produce distinct dynamic types of behavior. This study analyzes the accuracy in the prediction of LCs, namely their amplitude and frequency, when using several different algorithms. To illustrate this problem we use FO-PID algorithms in the control of systems with backlash.
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Data Mining (DM) methods are being increasingly used in prediction with time series data, in addition to traditional statistical approaches. This paper presents a literature review of the use of DM with time series data, focusing on short- time stocks prediction. This is an area that has been attracting a great deal of attention from researchers in the field. The main contribution of this paper is to provide an outline of the use of DM with time series data, using mainly examples related with short-term stocks prediction. This is important to a better understanding of the field. Some of the main trends and open issues will also be introduced.
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INTRODUCTION: Carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) is considered an early marker for atherosclerosis, but there are few studies on the expression of this marker in younger populations. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate cIMT in younge patients (aged 30-50 years) and its expression according to cardiovascular risk factors. METHODS: We analyzed individuals admitted for an invasive cardiac procedure. Normal cIMT was defined as < 0.90 mm, thickened as 0.90-1.50 mm and atherosclerotic plaque as > 1.50 mm. Lipid profile, anthropometric parameters, fasting blood glucose and estimated GFR were also determined. RESULTS: A total of 106 patients were included (59% male), with a mean age of 43 +/- 5 years, 36% with hypertension, 22% smokers, 32% with known hyperlipidemia, 16% with diabetes, 39% under statin therapy and 40% with metabolic syndrome (AHA/NHLBI definition). Mean cIMT was 0.69 +/- 0.26 mm, and was normal in 74% of the patients, thickened in 20% and with atherosclerotic plaques in 6%. cIMT correlated directly with age (r = 0.26, p = 0.007), log fasting glucose (r = 0.21, p = 0.04), and log triglycerides (r = 0.24, p = 0.017), and tended to correlate with the number of components of metabolic syndrome (r = 0.17, p = 0.08). However, on multivariate analysis, only age remained as an independent predictor (r = 0.29, p = 0.005). Diabetic patients had greater cIMT (0.81 +/- 0.22 vs. 0.67 +/- 0.26 mm, p = 0.039) and there was a trend for greater cIMT in those with metabolic syndrome (0.75 +/- 0.29 vs. 0.66 +/- 0.23 mm, p = 0.09). There were no differences for the other risk factors, A higher number of risk factors in a single patient showed a trend for increased cIMT (p = 0.083) CONCLUSIONS: Age is the only independent determinant of cIMT in a young population. Diabetic patients have greater cIMT and a trend was seen in those with metabolic syndrome, possibly influenced by its relation with diabetes, one of the components of the metabolic syndrome.
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The authors observed an injury caused by the sting of a false tocandira ant in the hand of an amateur fisherman and they describe the clinical findings and the evolution of the envenoming, which presented an acute and violent pain, cold sweating, nausea, a vomiting episode, malaise, tachycardia and left axillary's lymphadenopathy. About three hours after the accident, still feeling intense pain in the place of the sting, he presented an episode of great amount of blood in the feces with no history of digestive, hematological or vascular problems. The intense pain decreased after eight hours, but the place stayed moderately painful for about 24 hours. In that moment, he presented small grade of local edema and erythema. The authors still present the folkloric, pharmacological and clinical aspects related to the tocandiras stings, a very interesting family of ants, which presents the largest and more venomous ants of the world.
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Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.
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The integrity of multi-component structures is usually determined by their unions. Adhesive-bonding is often used over traditional methods because of the reduction of stress concentrations, reduced weight penalty, and easy manufacturing. Commercial adhesives range from strong and brittle (e.g., Araldite® AV138) to less strong and ductile (e.g., Araldite® 2015). A new family of polyurethane adhesives combines high strength and ductility (e.g., Sikaforce® 7888). In this work, the performance of the three above-mentioned adhesives was tested in single lap joints with varying values of overlap length (LO). The experimental work carried out is accompanied by a detailed numerical analysis by finite elements, either based on cohesive zone models (CZM) or the extended finite element method (XFEM). This procedure enabled detailing the performance of these predictive techniques applied to bonded joints. Moreover, it was possible to evaluate which family of adhesives is more suited for each joint geometry. CZM revealed to be highly accurate, except for largely ductile adhesives, although this could be circumvented with a different cohesive law. XFEM is not the most suited technique for mixed-mode damage growth, but a rough prediction was achieved.
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Adhesive bonding is an excellent alternative to traditional joining techniques such as welding, mechanical fastening or riveting. However, there are many factors that have to be accounted for during joint design to accurately predict the joint strength. One of these is the adhesive layer thickness (tA). Most of the results are for epoxy structural adhesives, tailored to perform best with small values of tA, and these show that the lap joint strength decreases with increase of tA (the optimum joint strength is usually obtained with tA values between 0.1 and 0.2 mm). Recently, polyurethane adhesives were made available in the market, designed to perform with larger tA values, and whose fracture behaviour is still not studied. In this work, the effect of tA on the tensile fracture toughness (View the MathML source) of a bonded joint is studied, considering a novel high strength and ductile polyurethane adhesive for the automotive industry. This work consists on the fracture characterization of the bond by a conventional and the J-integral techniques, which accurately account for root rotation effects. An optical measurement method is used for the evaluation of crack tip opening (δn) and adherends rotation at the crack tip (θo) during the test, supported by a Matlab® sub-routine for the automated extraction of these parameters. As output of this work, fracture data is provided in traction for the selected adhesive, enabling the subsequent strength prediction of bonded joints.
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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática
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Doente 69 anos, sexo masculino com patologia respiratória restritiva e com o diagnóstico de hérnia discal lombar L3-L4 recidivada submetido a laminectomia bilateral de L3, foraminectomia bilateral de L3-L4, discectomia L3-L4 e artrodese com sistema transpedicular de barras e parafusos, sob bloqueio subaracnoideu ao nível de L2-L3 com 10 mg de levobupivacaína e sedação com midazolam e propofol em bólus (grau 4/5 de Ramsay). Ao fim de 2:15 h de bloqueio subaracnoideu e de conseguida a artrodese, o neurocirurgião colocou um cateter no espaço epidural a nível lombar sob visão directa, por intermédio do qual foram administrados 7 ml de levobupivacaína a 0,25%, acrescido de outros 7 ml passados 35 min. A analgesia foi complementada com tramadol 100 mg iv e parecoxib 40 mg iv. Não houve complicações anestésico-cirúrgicas. Esta abordagem anestésica, raramente utilizada, visou acima de tudo, minimizar o impacto da anestesia numa doença concomitante – doença pulmonar restritiva, e foi bem sucedida.