The role of consumer's risk aversion on price rigidity

This paper aims at contributing to the research agenda on the sources of price stickiness, showing that the adoption of nominal price rigidity may be an optimal firms' reaction to the consumers' behavior, even if firms have no adjustment costs. With regular broadly accepted assumptions on economic agents behavior, we show that firms' competition can lead to the adoption of sticky prices as an (sub-game perfect) equilibrium strategy. We introduce the concept of a consumption centers model economy in which there are several complete markets. Moreover, we weaken some traditional assumptions used in standard monetary policy models, by assuming that households have imperfect information about the ineflicient time-varying cost shocks faced by the firms, e.g. the ones regarding to inefficient equilibrium output leveIs under fiexible prices. Moreover, the timing of events are assumed in such a way that, at every period, consumers have access to the actual prices prevailing in the market only after choosing a particular consumption center. Since such choices under uncertainty may decrease the expected utilities of risk averse consumers, competitive firms adopt some degree of price stickiness in order to minimize the price uncertainty and fi attract more customers fi.'

A systematic component of the jump-risk premium in an AJD model

We develop an affine jump diffusion (AJD) model with the jump-risk premium being determined by both idiosyncratic and systematic sources of risk. While we maintain the classical affine setting of the model, we add a finite set of new state variables that affect the paths of the primitive, under both the actual and the risk-neutral measure, by being related to the primitive's jump process. Those new variables are assumed to be commom to all the primitives. We present simulations to ensure that the model generates the volatility smile and compute the "discounted conditional characteristic function'' transform that permits the pricing of a wide range of derivatives.

Information on disaster risk management: case study of five countries: Jamaica

Incluye Bibliografía

Risk factors and presence of antibodies to Brucella canis and smooth Brucella in dogs from the municipality of Araguaina, Tocantins, Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Cardiac risk stratification in cardiac rehabilitation programs: a review of protocols

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Risk factors that may signify a propensity to the use of drugs in students at a public university

Introduction: We sought to evaluate the risk factors that may increase the propensity to use licit and illicit drugs among students at a public university. Methods: The project involved students (n = 268) enrolled in the first and fourth years of courses in the areas of the social and biological sciences at a public university. Data collection was conducted by means of self-administered, semistructured questionnaires, based on such standardized assessment instruments as Audit, Assist, Cage and Duse. Collected data were analyzed quantitatively by calculating the percentages and evaluating the data in terms of categories of risk, classifying them by age, gender, religion, schooling, use (before or after entering university) and contexts of use. By means of this survey the researchers were able to correlate the use of drugs to the risk factors that might increase the students’ propensity to use these substances. Results: The results revealed a high proportion of current drug-using students, but showed no significant differences between the first and fourth year students as regards contexts of use. However, 67% of students regarded the university environment as encouraging the use of drugs. Students pointed to such major risk factors as friends’ and fellow-students’ influence, university parties, excessive curiosity and desire to experiment. Conclusion: Due to the high rate of drug use among university students, by the determination of the risk factors related to the university environment and also knowing that the process of addiction is one of growing chemical dependence, the importance of the development and implementation of public health policies at all levels, especially in terms of approaches and specific interventions addressing this population, should be noted.

Prevalence and possible risk factors of peri-implantitis: a concept review

The purpose of this review is to estimate the prevalence of peri-implantitis, as well as to determine possible risk factors associated with its development in patients treated with oral implants. Although implant therapy has been identified as a successful and predictable treatment for partially and fully edentulous patients, complications and failures can occur. Peri-implantitis is considered a biologic complication that results in bone loss around implants and may lead to implant treatment failure. A great variation has been observed in the literature regarding the prevalence of peri-implantitis according to the diagnostic criteria used to define peri-implantitis. The prevalence ranges from 4.7 to 43% at implant level, and from 8.9 to > 56% at patient level. Many risk factors that may lead to the establishment and progression of peri-implantitis have been suggested. There is strong evidence that presence and history of periodontitis are potential risk factors for peri-implantitis. Cigarette smoking has not yet been conclusively established as a risk factor for peri-implantitis, although extra care should be taken with dental implant in smokers. Other risk factors, such as diabetes, genetic traits, implant surface roughness and presence of keratinized mucosa still require further investigation. Peri-implantitis is not an uncommon complication following implant therapy. A higher prevalence of peri-implantitis has been identified for patients with presence or history of periodontal disease and for smokers. Until now, a true risk factor for peri-implantitis has not been established. Supportive maintenance program is essential for the long-term success of treatments with oral implants. The knowledge of the real impact of peri-implantitis on the outcome of treatments with oral implants as well as the identification of risk factors associated to this inflammatory condition are essential for the development of supportive maintenance programs and the establishment of prevention protocols.

Risk Factors Associated With the Prevalence of Tuberculosis-Like Lesions in Fenced Wild Boar and Red Deer in South Central Spain

In recent decades the management of large game mammals has become increasingly intensive in south central Spain (SCS), resulting in complex epidemiological scenarios for disease maintenance, and has probably impeded schemes to eradicate tuberculosis (TB) in domestic livestock. We conducted an analysis of risk factors which investigated associations between the pattern of tuberculosis-like lesions (TBL) in wild boar (Sus scrofa) and red deer (Cervus elaphus) across 19 hunting estates from SCS and an extensive set of variables related to game management, land use and habitat structure. The aggregation of wild boar at artificial watering sites was significantly associated with an increasing risk of detecting TBL in both species, which probably relates to enhanced opportunities for transmission. Aggregation of wild boar at feeding sites was also associated with increased risks of TBL in red deer. Hardwood Quercus spp. forest availability was marginally associated with an increased risk of TB in both species, whereas scrubland cover was associated with a reduced individual risk of TBL in the wild boar. It is concluded that management practices that encourage the aggregation of hosts, and some characteristics of Mediterranean habitats could increase the frequency and probability of both direct and indirect transmission of TB. These findings are of concern for both veterinary and public health authorities, and reveal tuberculosis itself as a potential limiting factor for the development and sustainability of such intensive game management systems in Spanish Mediterranean habitats.

Prevalence and risk factors of Hepatitis C virus infection in Brazil, 2005 through 2009: a cross-sectional study

Abstract Background Hepatitis C chronic liver disease is a major cause of liver transplant in developed countries. This article reports the first nationwide population-based survey conducted to estimate the seroprevalence of HCV antibodies and associated risk factors in the urban population of Brazil. Methods The cross sectional study was conducted in all Brazilian macro-regions from 2005 to 2009, as a stratified multistage cluster sample of 19,503 inhabitants aged between 10 and 69 years, representing individuals living in all 26 State capitals and the Federal District. Hepatitis C antibodies were detected by a third-generation enzyme immunoassay. Seropositive individuals were retested by Polymerase Chain Reaction and genotyped. Adjusted prevalence was estimated by macro-regions. Potential risk factors associated with HCV infection were assessed by calculating the crude and adjusted odds ratios, 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) and p values. Population attributable risk was estimated for multiple factors using a case–control approach. Results The overall weighted prevalence of hepatitis C antibodies was 1.38% (95% CI: 1.12%–1.64%). Prevalence of infection increased in older groups but was similar for both sexes. The multivariate model showed the following to be predictors of HCV infection: age, injected drug use (OR = 6.65), sniffed drug use (OR = 2.59), hospitalization (OR = 1.90), groups socially deprived by the lack of sewage disposal (OR = 2.53), and injection with glass syringe (OR = 1.52, with a borderline p value). The genotypes 1 (subtypes 1a, 1b), 2b and 3a were identified. The estimated population attributable risk for the ensemble of risk factors was 40%. Approximately 1.3 million individuals would be expected to be anti-HCV-positive in the country. Conclusions The large estimated absolute numbers of infected individuals reveals the burden of the disease in the near future, giving rise to costs for the health care system and society at large. The known risk factors explain less than 50% of the infected cases, limiting the prevention strategies. Our findings regarding risk behaviors associated with HCV infection showed that there is still room for improving strategies for reducing transmission among drug users and nosocomial infection, as well as a need for specific prevention and control strategies targeting individuals living in poverty.

Risk analysis of tractor rollover in the normal operation in field

Tractor rollover represent a primary cause of death or serious injury in agriculture and despite the mandatory Roll-Over Protective Structures (ROPS), that reduced the number of injuries, tractor accidents are still of great concern. Because of their versatility and wide use many studies on safety are concerned with the stability of tractors, but they often prefer controlled tests or laboratory tests. The evaluation of tractors working in field, instead, is a very complex issue because the rollover could be influenced by the interaction among operator, tractor and environment. Recent studies are oriented towards the evaluation of the actual working conditions developing prototypes for driver assistance and data acquisition. Currently these devices are produced and sold by manufacturers. A warning device was assessed in this study with the aim to evaluate its performance and to collect data on different variables influencing the dynamics of tractors in field by monitoring continuously the working conditions of tractors operating at the experimental farm of the Bologna University. The device consists of accelerometers, gyroscope, GSM/GPRS, GPS for geo-referencing and a transceiver for the automatic recognition of tractor-connected equipment. A microprocessor processes data and provides information, through a dedicated algorithm requiring data on the geometry of the tested tractor, on the level of risk for the operator in terms of probable loss of stability and suggests corrective measures to reduce the potential instability of the tractor.

Significance of Periodontal Risk Assessment in the recurrence of periodontitis and tooth loss

Aim: To investigate the association of the Periodontal Risk Assessment (PRA) model categories with periodontitis recurrence and tooth loss during supportive periodontal therapy (SPT) and to explore the role of patient compliance. Material and Methods: In a retrospective cohort, PRA was performed for 160 patients after active periodontal therapy (APT) and after 9.5 ± 4.5 years of SPT. The recurrence of periodontitis and tooth loss were analysed according to the patient's risk profile (low, moderate or high) after APT and compliance with SPT. The association of risk factors with tooth loss and recurrence of periodontitis was investigated using logistic regression analysis. Results: In 18.2% of patients with a low-risk profile, in 42.2% of patients with a moderate-risk profile and in 49.2% of patients with a high-risk profile after APT, periodontitis recurred. During SPT, 1.61 ± 2.8 teeth/patient were lost. High-risk profile patients lost significantly more teeth (2.59 ± 3.9) than patients with moderate- (1.02 ± 1.8) or low-risk profiles (1.18 ± 1.9) (Kruskal–Wallis test, p=0.0229). Patients with erratic compliance lost significantly (Kruskal–Wallis test, p=0.0067) more teeth (3.11 ± 4.5) than patients compliant with SPT (1.07 ± 1.6). Conclusions: In multivariate logistic regression analysis, a high-risk patient profile according to the PRA model at the end of APT was associated with recurrence of periodontitis. Another significant factor for recurrence of periodontitis was an SPT duration of more than 10 years.

Risk stratification of normotensive patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism

Treatment guidelines recommend strong consideration of thrombolysis in patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism (PE) that present with arterial hypotension or shock because of the high risk of death in this setting. For haemodynamically stable patients with PE, the categorization of risk for subgroups may assist with decision-making regarding PE therapy. Clinical models [e.g. Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI)] may accurately identify those at low risk of overall death in the first 3 months after the diagnosis of PE, and such patients might benefit from an abbreviated hospital stay or outpatient therapy. Though some evidence suggests that a subset of high-risk normotensive patients with PE may have a reasonable risk to benefit ratio for thrombolytic therapy, single markers of right ventricular dysfunction (e.g. echocardiography, spiral computed tomography, or brain natriuretic peptide testing) and myocardial injury (e.g. cardiac troponin T or I testing) have an insufficient positive predictive value for PE-specific mortality to drive decision-making toward such therapy. Recommendations for outpatient treatment or thrombolytic therapy for patients with PE necessitate further development of prognostic models and conduct of clinical trials that assess various treatment strategies.

Duration of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus carriage, according to risk factors for acquisition

OBJECTIVE: To examine the duration of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) carriage and its determinants and the influence of eradication regimens. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: A 1,033-bed tertiary care university hospital in Bern, Switzerland, in which the prevalence of methicillin resistance among S. aureus isolates is less than 5%. PATIENTS: A total of 116 patients with first-time MRSA detection identified at University Hospital Bern between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2003, were followed up for a mean duration of 16.2 months. RESULTS: Sixty-eight patients (58.6%) cleared colonization, with a median time to clearance of 7.4 months. Independent determinants for shorter carriage duration were the absence of any modifiable risk factor (receipt of antibiotics, use of an indwelling device, or presence of a skin lesion) (hazard ratio [HR], 0.20 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.09-0.42]), absence of immunosuppressive therapy (HR, 0.49 [95% CI, 0.23-1.02]), and hemodialysis (HR, 0.08 [95% CI, 0.01-0.66]) at the time MRSA was first MRSA detected and the administration of decolonization regimen in the absence of a modifiable risk factor (HR, 2.22 [95% CI, 1.36-3.64]). Failure of decolonization treatment was associated with the presence of risk factors at the time of treatment (P=.01). Intermittent screenings that were negative for MRSA were frequent (26% of patients), occurred early after first detection of MRSA (median, 31.5 days), and were associated with a lower probability of clearing colonization (HR, 0.34 [95% CI, 0.17-0.67]) and an increased risk of MRSA infection during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Risk factors for MRSA acquisition should be carefully assessed in all MRSA carriers and should be included in infection control policies, such as the timing of decolonization treatment, the definition of MRSA clearance, and the decision of when to suspend isolation measures.

Book Review of “At Risk: Social Justice in Child Welfare and Other Human Services” by Karen J. Swift and Marilyn Callahan, 2009, Toronto: University of Toronto Press

The newest book by Canadian social work scholars Karen Swift and Marilyn Callahan is exemplary of how other disciplines can invigorate social work theory. “At Risk” uses child welfare practice as an entry point for exploring the continuing movement away from addressing needs and towards the management of risk in the human services.