An equity wealth preservation strategy: Following the macro trend

Financial crisis have happened in the past and will continue to do so in the future. In the most recent 2008 crisis, global equities (as measured by the MSCI ACWI index) lost a staggering 54.2% in USD, on the year. During those periods wealth preservation becomes at the top of most investor’s concerns. The purpose of this paper is to develop a strategy that protects the investment during bear markets and significant market corrections, generates capital appreciation, and that can support Millennium BCP’s Wealth Management Unit on their asset allocation procedures. This strategy extends the Dual Momentum approach introduced by Gary Antonacci (2014) in two ways. First, the investable set of securities in the equities space increases from two to four. Besides the US it will comprise the Japanese, European (excl. UK) and EM equity indices. Secondly, it adds a volatility filter as well as three indicators related to the business cycle and the state of the economy, which are relevant to decide on the strategy’s exposure to equities. Overall the results attest the resiliency of the strategy before, during and after historical financial crashes, as it drastically reduces the downside exposure and consistently outperforms the benchmark index by providing higher mean returns with lower variance.

Trading the changes of stock market index composition: Evidence from European markets

This paper studies the changes in European stock market indexes composition from 1995 to 2015. It was found that there are mixed price effects producing abnormal returns around the effective replacement of added and deleted stocks. The price pressure hypothesis seems to hold for added stocks in some indexes but not for deleted stocks as there is not a clear inversion of behaviour after the replacement. Finally, the building and back testing of a trading strategy aiming to capture some of those abnormal returns shows it yields a Sharpe Ratio of 1.4 and generates an annualised alpha of 11%.

Sustained competitive advantage of different sized multinational corporations in rural base of the pyramid markets

This thesis explores how multinational corporations of different sizes create barriers to imitation and therefore sustain competitive advantage in rural and informal Base of the Pyramid economies. These markets require close cooperation with local partners in a dynamic environment that lacks imposable property rights and follows a different rationale than developed markets. In order to explore how competitive advantage is sustained by different sized multinational corporations at the Base of the Pyramid, the natural-resource-based view and the dynamic capabilities perspective are integrated. Based on this integration the natural-resource-based view is extended by identifying critical dynamic capabilities that are assumed to be sources of competitive advantage at the Base of the Pyramid. Further, a contrasting case study explores how the identified dynamic capabilities are protected and their competitive advantage is sustained by isolating mechanisms that create barriers to imitation for a small to medium sized and a large multinational corporation. The case study results give grounds to assume that most resource-based isolating mechanisms create barriers to imitation that are fairly high for large and established multinational corporations that operate at the rural Base of the Pyramid and have a high product and business model complexity. On the contrary, barriers to imitation were found to be lower for young and small to medium sized multinational corporations with low product and business model complexity that according to some authors represent the majority of rural Base of the Pyramid companies. Particularly for small to medium sized multinational corporations the case study finds a relationship- and transaction-based unwillingness of local partners to act opportunistically rather than a resource-based inability to imitate. By offering an explanation of sustained competitive advantage for small to medium sized multinational corporations at the rural Base of the Pyramid this thesis closes an important research gap and recommends to include institutional and transaction-based research perspectives.

How do global born companies ignite their internationalization and survive in international markets?

Over the last decades, the born global firms or the international new ventures (“INVs”) have assumed a growing role in international business, including in Portugal. The rise of this new type of multinational has challenged several theories concerning the development of multinational companies and the origin of companies’ competitive advantage. This qualitative, case-based research explores the most relevant traits shown by some Portuguese born-global firms. More concretely, the aim of this work is to compare some Portuguese international new ventures in order to understand the role of leadership, culture and strategy in their rapid internationalization and the source of their lasting competitive advantage. It was noticed that these firms’ lasting competitive advantage results from a singular combination of resources and dynamic capabilities that evolves over time. Moreover, it was found that these firms’ foreign subsidiaries and local networks may be essential to enhance the firms competitive advantage as it provides each firm a distinctive source of knowledge and capabilities. As a consequence, the effective assimilation of such resources and capabilities in these firms’ may become crucial for their lasting success. In addition, the leadership, strategy and culture in these firms seem to be quite aligned and form a quite virtuous cycle that contributed to the firms rapid internationalization and for the way the firms developed their own resources and dynamic capabilities and adapted to external environment.

Three essays on the psychology of investment and financial markets

Préface My thesis consists of three essays where I consider equilibrium asset prices and investment strategies when the market is likely to experience crashes and possibly sharp windfalls. Although each part is written as an independent and self contained article, the papers share a common behavioral approach in representing investors preferences regarding to extremal returns. Investors utility is defined over their relative performance rather than over their final wealth position, a method first proposed by Markowitz (1952b) and by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), that I extend to incorporate preferences over extremal outcomes. With the failure of the traditional expected utility models in reproducing the observed stylized features of financial markets, the Prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979) offered the first significant alternative to the expected utility paradigm by considering that people focus on gains and losses rather than on final positions. Under this setting, Barberis, Huang, and Santos (2000) and McQueen and Vorkink (2004) were able to build a representative agent optimization model which solution reproduced some of the observed risk premium and excess volatility. The research in behavioral finance is relatively new and its potential still to explore. The three essays composing my thesis propose to use and extend this setting to study investors behavior and investment strategies in a market where crashes and sharp windfalls are likely to occur. In the first paper, the preferences of a representative agent, relative to time varying positive and negative extremal thresholds are modelled and estimated. A new utility function that conciliates between expected utility maximization and tail-related performance measures is proposed. The model estimation shows that the representative agent preferences reveals a significant level of crash aversion and lottery-pursuit. Assuming a single risky asset economy the proposed specification is able to reproduce some of the distributional features exhibited by financial return series. The second part proposes and illustrates a preference-based asset allocation model taking into account investors crash aversion. Using the skewed t distribution, optimal allocations are characterized as a resulting tradeoff between the distribution four moments. The specification highlights the preference for odd moments and the aversion for even moments. Qualitatively, optimal portfolios are analyzed in terms of firm characteristics and in a setting that reflects real-time asset allocation, a systematic over-performance is obtained compared to the aggregate stock market. Finally, in my third article, dynamic option-based investment strategies are derived and illustrated for investors presenting downside loss aversion. The problem is solved in closed form when the stock market exhibits stochastic volatility and jumps. The specification of downside loss averse utility functions allows corresponding terminal wealth profiles to be expressed as options on the stochastic discount factor contingent on the loss aversion level. Therefore dynamic strategies reduce to the replicating portfolio using exchange traded and well selected options, and the risky stock.

I have faith in my thing, you know what I mean? Mixed method elements on individual investments on religious markets.

In contemporary society, religious signification and secular systems mix and influence each other. Holistic conceptions of a world in which man is integrated harmoniously with nature meet representations of a world run by an immanent God. On the market of the various systems, the individual goes from one system to another, following his immediate needs and expectations without necessarily leaving any marks in a meaningful long term system. This article presents the first results of an ongoing research in Switzerland on contemporary religion focusing on (new) paths of socialization of modern that individuals and the various (non-) belief systems that they simultaneously develop

Image and value of product brand in industrial markets: Case Stora Enso Consumer Packaging Boards

TUTKIMUKSEN TAVOITTEET Tutkielman tavoitteena oli luoda ensin yleiskäsitys tuotemerkkimarkkinoinnin roolista teollisilla markkinoilla, sekä suhdemarkkinoinnin merkityksestä teollisessa merkkituotemarkkinoinnissa. Toisena oleellisena tavoitteena oli kuvata teoreettisesti merkkituoteidentiteetin rakenne teollisessa yrityksessä ja sen vaikutukset myyntihenkilöstöön, ja lisäksi haluttiin tutkia tuotemerkkien lisäarvoa sekä asiakkaalle että myyjälle. Identiteetti ja sen vaikutukset, erityisesti imago haluttiin tutkia myös empiirisesti. LÄHDEAINEISTO JA TUTKIMUSMENETELMÄT Tämän tutkielman teoreettinen osuus perustuu kirjallisuuteen, akateemisiin julkaisuihin ja aikaisempiin tutkimuksiin; keskittyen merkkituotteiden markkinointiin, identiteettiin ja imagoon, sekä suhdemarkkinointiin osana merkkituotemarkkinointia. Tutkimuksen lähestymistapa on kuvaileva eli deskriptiivinen ja sekä kvalitatiivinen että kvantitatiivinen. Tutkimus on tapaustutkimus, jossa caseyritykseksi valittiin kansainvälinen pakkauskartonki-teollisuuden yritys. Empiirisen osuuden toteuttamiseen käytettiin www-pohjaista surveytä, jonka avulla tietoja kerättiin myyntihenkilöstöltä case-yrityksessä. Lisäksi empiiristä osuutta laajennettiin tutkimalla sekundäärilähteitä kuten yrityksen sisäisiä kirjallisia dokumentteja ja tutkimuksia. TULOKSET. Teoreettisen ja empiirisen tutkimuksen tuloksena luotiin malli jota voidaan hyödyntää merkkituotemarkkinoinnin päätöksenteon tukena pakkauskartonki-teollisuudessa. Teollisen brandinhallinnan tulee keskittyä erityisesti asiakas-suhteiden brandaukseen – tätä voisi kutsua teolliseksi suhdebrandaukseksi. Tuote-elementit ja –arvot, differointi ja positiointi, sisäinen yrityskuva ja viestintä ovat teollisen brandi-identiteetin peruskiviä, jotka luovat brandi-imagon. Case-yrityksen myyntihenkilöstön tuote- ja yritysmielikuvat osoittautuivat kokonaisuudessaan hyviksi. Paras imago on CKB tuotteilla, kun taas heikoin on WLC tuotteilla. Teolliset brandit voivat luoda monenlaisia lisäarvoja sekä asiakas- että myyjäyritykselle.

ASSESSING THE PERFORMANCE OF EMERGING MARKET MUTUAL FUNDS IN CANADA

Emerging markets have received wide attention from investors around the globe because of their return potential and risk diversification. This research examines the selection and timing performance of Canadian mutual funds which invest in fixed-income and equity securities in emerging markets. We use (un)conditional two- and five-factor benchmark models that accommodate the dynamics of returns in emerging markets. We also adopt the cross-sectional bootstrap methodology to distinguish between ‘skill’ and ‘luck’ for individual funds. All the tests are conducted using a comprehensive data set of bond and equity emerging funds over the period of 1989-2011. The risk-adjusted measures of performance are estimated using the least squares method with the Newey-West adjustment for standard errors that are robust to conditional heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. The performance statistics of the emerging funds before (after) management-related costs are insignificantly positive (significantly negative). They are sensitive to the chosen benchmark model and conditional information improves selection performance. The timing statistics are largely insignificant throughout the sample period and are not sensitive to the benchmark model. Evidence of timing and selecting abilities is obtained in a small number of funds which is not sensitive to the fees structure. We also find evidence that a majority of individual funds provide zero (very few provide positive) abnormal return before fees and a significantly negative return after fees. At the negative end of the tail of performance distribution, our resampling tests fail to reject the role of bad luck in the poor performance of funds and we conclude that most of them are merely ‘unlucky’.

Letter Estates Department to Securities Department Regarding H.K. Woodruff Estate

Letter from the estates department to the securities department regarding the estate of H.K. Woodruff consolidated trusts. The letter states that Mr. Woodruff was still the registered owner of 15,000 shares of Manor Gold Mines. This was signed by J.B. Watkinson, June 17, 1936.

Tests of Conditional Asset Pricing Models in the Brazilian Stock Market

In this paper, we test a version of the conditional CAPM with respect to a local market portfolio, proxied by the Brazilian stock index during the 1976-1992 period. We also test a conditional APT model by using the difference between the 30-day rate (Cdb) and the overnight rate as a second factor in addition to the market portfolio in order to capture the large inflation risk present during this period. The conditional CAPM and APT models are estimated by the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and tested on a set of size portfolios created from a total of 25 securities exchanged on the Brazilian markets. The inclusion of this second factor proves to be crucial for the appropriate pricing of the portfolios.

Uncovering Financial Markets Beliefs About Inflation Targets

This paper exploits the term structure of interest rates to develop testable economic restrictions on the joint process of long-term interest rates and inflation when the latter is subject to a targeting policy by the Central Bank. Two competing models that econometrically describe agents’ inferences about inflation targets are developed and shown to generate distinct predictions on the behavior of interest rates. In an empirical application to the Canadian inflation target zone, results indicate that agents perceive the band to be substantially narrower than officially announced and asymmetric around the stated mid-point. The latter result (i) suggests that the monetary authority attaches different weights to positive and negative deviations from the central target, and (ii) challenges on empirical grounds the assumption, frequently made in the literature, that the policy maker’s loss function is symmetric (usually a quadratic function) around a desired inflation value.

Jumps in the Volatility of Financial Markets.

Recent work suggests that the conditional variance of financial returns may exhibit sudden jumps. This paper extends a non-parametric procedure to detect discontinuities in otherwise continuous functions of a random variable developed by Delgado and Hidalgo (1996) to higher conditional moments, in particular the conditional variance. Simulation results show that the procedure provides reasonable estimates of the number and location of jumps. This procedure detects several jumps in the conditional variance of daily returns on the S&P 500 index.

Tests of Conditional Asset Pricing Models in the Brazilian Stock Market

In this paper, we test a version of the conditional CAPM with respect to a local market portfolio, proxied by the Brazilian stock index during the 1976-1992 period. We also test a conditional APT model by using the difference between the 30-day rate (Cdb) and the overnight rate as a second factor in addition to the market portfolio in order to capture the large inflation risk present during this period. the conditional CAPM and APT models are estimated by the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and tested on a set of size portfolios created from a total of 25 securities exchanged on the Brazilian markets. the inclusion of this second factor proves to be crucial for the appropriate pricing of the portfolios.

In Search of Advice for Physicians in Entry-Level Medical Markets

We consider entry-level medical markets for physicians in the United Kingdom. These markets experienced failures which led to the adoption of centralized market mechanisms in the 1960's. However, different regions introduced different centralized mechanisms. We advise physicians who do not have detailed information about the rank-order lists submitted by the other participants. We demonstrate that in each of these markets in a low information environment it is not beneficial to reverse the true ranking of any two acceptable hospital positions. We further show that (i) in the Edinburgh 1967 market, ranking unacceptable matches as acceptable is not profitable for any participant and (ii) in any other British entry-level medical market, it is possible that only strategies which rank unacceptable positions as acceptable are optimal for a physician.