Comparing predictions of extinction risk using models and subjective judgement

Models of population dynamics are commonly used to predict risks in ecology, particularly risks of population decline. There is often considerable uncertainty associated with these predictions. However, alternatives to predictions based on population models have not been assessed. We used simulation models of hypothetical species to generate the kinds of data that might typically be available to ecologists and then invited other researchers to predict risks of population declines using these data. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed by comparison with the forecasts of the original model. The researchers used either population models or subjective judgement to make their predictions. Predictions made using models were only slightly more accurate than subjective judgements of risk. However, predictions using models tended to be unbiased, while subjective judgements were biased towards over-estimation. Psychology literature suggests that the bias of subjective judgements is likely to vary somewhat unpredictably among people, depending on their stake in the outcome. This will make subjective predictions more uncertain and less transparent than those based on models. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

A prospective comparison of two models of cannabis use and psychotic relapse in early psychosis

No abstract

Application of Ti/RuO(2)-Ta(2)O(5) electrodes in the electrooxidation of ethanol and derivants: Reactivity versus electrocatalytic efficiency

The influence of the preparation method on the performance of RuO(2)-Ta(2)O(5) electrodes was evaluated toward the ethanol oxidation reaction (EOR). Freshly prepared RuO(2)-Ta(2)O(5) thin films containing between 30 and 80 at.% Ru were prepared by two different methods: the modified Pechini-Adams method (DPP) and standard thermal decomposition (STD). Electrochemical investigation of the electrode containing RuO(2)-Ta(2)O(5) thin films was conducted as a function of electrode composition in a 0.5-mol dm(-3) H(2)SO(4) solution, in the presence and absence of ethanol and its derivants (acetaldehyde and acetic acid). At a low ethanol concentration (5 mmol dm(-3)), ethanol oxidation leads to high yields of acetic acid and CO(2). On the other hand, an increase in ethanol concentration (15-1000 mmol dm(-3)) favors acetaldehyde formation, so acetic acid and CO(2) production is hindered, in this case. Electrodes prepared by DPP provide higher current efficiency than STD electrodes for all the investigated ethanol concentrations. This may be explained by the increase in electrode area obtained with the DPP preparation method compared with STD. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Virtual models of the HLA class I antigen processing pathway

Antigen recognition by cytotoxic CD8 T cells is dependent upon a number of critical steps in MHC class I antigen processing including proteosomal cleavage, TAP transport into the endoplasmic reticulum, and MHC class 1 binding. Based on extensive experimental data relating to each of these steps there is now the capacity to model individual antigen processing steps with a high degree of accuracy. This paper demonstrates the potential to bring together models of individual antigen processing steps, for example proteosome cleavage, TAP transport, and MHC binding, to build highly informative models of functional pathways. In particular, we demonstrate how an artificial neural network model of TAP transport was used to mine a HLA-binding database so as to identify H LA-binding peptides transported by TAP. This integrated model of antigen processing provided the unique insight that HLA class I alleles apparently constitute two separate classes: those that are TAP-efficient for peptide loading (HLA-B27, -A3, and -A24) and those that are TAP-inefficient (HLA-A2, -B7, and -B8). Hence, using this integrated model we were able to generate novel hypotheses regarding antigen processing, and these hypotheses are now capable of being tested experimentally. This model confirms the feasibility of constructing a virtual immune system, whereby each additional step in antigen processing is incorporated into a single modular model. Accurate models of antigen processing have implications for the study of basic immunology as well as for the design of peptide-based vaccines and other immunotherapies. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dermaseptin 01 as antimicrobial peptide with rich biotechnological potential: study of peptide interaction with membranes containing Leishmania amazonensis lipid-rich extract and membrane models

This article addresses the interactions of the synthetic antimicrobial peptide dermaseptin 01 (GLWSTIKQKGKEAAIAAA-KAAGQAALGAL-NH(2), DS 01) with phospholipid (PL) monolayers comprising (i) a lipid-rich extract of Leishmania amazonensis (LRE-La), (ii) zwitterionic PL (dipalmitoylphosphatidylcholine, DPPC), and (iii) negatively charged PL (dipalmitoylphosphatidylglycerol, DPPG). The degree of interaction of DS 01 with the different biomembrane models was quantified from equilibrium and dynamic liquid-air interface parameters. At low peptide concentrations, interactions between DS 01 and zwitterionic PL, as well as with the LRE-La monolayers were very weak, whereas with negatively charged PLs the interactions were stronger. For peptide concentrations above 1 mu g/ml, a considerable expansion of negatively charged monolayers occurred. In the case of DPPC, it was possible to return to the original lipid area in the condensed phase, suggesting that the peptide was expelled from the monolayer. However, in the case of DPPG, the average area per lipid molecule in the presence of DS 01 was higher than pure PLs even at high surface pressures, suggesting that at least part of DS 01 remained incorporated in the monolayer. For the LRE-La monolayers, DS 01 also remained in the monolayer. This is the first report on the antiparasitic activity of AMPs using Langmuir monolayers of a natural lipid extract from L. amazonensis. Copyright (C) 2011 European Peptide Society and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

ANNA: A new prediction method for bioassessment programs

1. Cluster analysis of reference sites with similar biota is the initial step in creating River Invertebrate Prediction and Classification System (RIVPACS) and similar river bioassessment models such as Australian River Assessment System (AUSRIVAS). This paper describes and tests an alternative prediction method, Assessment by Nearest Neighbour Analysis (ANNA), based on the same philosophy as RIVPACS and AUSRIVAS but without the grouping step that some people view as artificial. 2. The steps in creating ANNA models are: (i) weighting the predictor variables using a multivariate approach analogous to principal axis correlations, (ii) calculating the weighted Euclidian distance from a test site to the reference sites based on the environmental predictors, (iii) predicting the faunal composition based on the nearest reference sites and (iv) calculating an observed/expected (O/E) analogous to RIVPACS/AUSRIVAS. 3. The paper compares AUSRIVAS and ANNA models on 17 datasets representing a variety of habitats and seasons. First, it examines each model's regressions for Observed versus Expected number of taxa, including the r(2), intercept and slope. Second, the two models' assessments of 79 test sites in New Zealand are compared. Third, the models are compared on test and presumed reference sites along a known trace metal gradient. Fourth, ANNA models are evaluated for western Australia, a geographically distinct region of Australia. The comparisons demonstrate that ANNA and AUSRIVAS are generally equivalent in performance, although ANNA turns out to be potentially more robust for the O versus E regressions and is potentially more accurate on the trace metal gradient sites. 4. The ANNA method is recommended for use in bioassessment of rivers, at least for corroborating the results of the well established AUSRIVAS- and RIVPACS-type models, if not to replace them.

Psychological characteristics of older versus younger persons with a functional gastrointestinal disorder (FGID)

Functional gastrointestinal disorders commonly affect people of all ages, including the elderly. While population-based studies report significant psychological morbidity in people diagnosed with these disorders it is not clear what effect age has in explaining this relationship. We hypothesised that psychological distress would be higher in older versus younger persons with a FGID from the community. A random sample of 4500 subjects were mailed a questionnaire on gastrointestinal symptoms in the past 12 months (response rate = 72%). Of those fulfilling Rome I criteria for a FGID (n = 988) we then classified subjects into older (>60 years) (n =126) versus younger (18-59 years) (n = 862) categories. Psychological variables included anxiety and depression (Delusions Symptom States Inventory) and neuroticism and extroversion (Eysenck Personality Inventory). Quality of life was assessed using the valid SF-12. Anxiety (4.5 vs. 3.1), depression (3.0 vs. 1.8) and neuroticism (5.7 vs. 4.9) were significantly higher in younger versus older subjects with a FGID. While mental functioning (43.1 vs. 48.3) was significantly more impaired in younger versus older subjects, the reverse was found for physical functioning (48.7 vs. 40.8). Younger people with a FGID experience greater

Attentional modulation of neural responses to action observation: Implications for models of the human 'mirror' system

In primates, the observation of meaningful, goaldirected actions engages a network of cortical areas located within the premotor and inferior parietal lobules. Current models suggest that activity within these regions arises relatively automatically during passive action observation without the need for topdown control. Here we used functional magnetic resonance imaging to determine whether cortical activit)' associated with action observation is modulated by the strategic allocation of selective attention. Normal observers viewed movie clips of reach-to-grasp actions while performing an easy or difficult visual discrimination at the fovea. A wholebrain analysis was performed to determine the effects of attentional load on neural responses to observed hand actions. Our results suggest that cortical areas involved in action observation are significantiy modulated by attentional load. These findings have important implications for recent attempts to link the human action-observation system to response properties of "mirror neurons" in monkeys.

High speed versus conventional grinding in high removal rate machining of alumina and alumina-titania

High removal rate (up to 16.6 mm(3)/s per mm) grinding of alumina and alumina-titania was investigated with respect to material removal and basic grinding parameters using a resin-bond 160 mu m grit diamond wheel at the speeds of 40 and 160 m/s, respectively. The results show that the material removal for the single-phase polycrystalline alumina and the two-phase alumina-titania composite revealed identical mechanisms of microfracture and grain dislodgement under the grinding conditioned selected. There were no distinct differences in surface roughness and morphology for both materials ground at either conventional or high speed. An increase in material removal rate did not necessarily worsen the surface toughness for the two materials at both speeds. Also the grinding forces for the two ceramics demonstrated similar characteristics at any grinding speeds and specific removal rates. Both normal and tangential grinding forces and their force ratios at the high speed were lower than those at the conventional speed, regardless of removal rates. An increase in specific removal rate caused more rapid increases in normal and tangential forces obtained at the conventional grinding speed than those at the high speed. Furthermore, it is found that the high speed grinding at all the removal rates exerted a great amount of coolant-induced normal forces in grinding zone, which were 4-6 times higher than the pure normal grinding forces. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Expectation Propagation with Factorizing Distributions: A Gaussian Approximation and Performance Results for Simple Models

We discuss the expectation propagation (EP) algorithm for approximate Bayesian inference using a factorizing posterior approximation. For neural network models, we use a central limit theorem argument to make EP tractable when the number of parameters is large. For two types of models, we show that EP can achieve optimal generalization performance when data are drawn from a simple distribution.

Drinfeld twists and symmetric Bethe vectors of supersymmetric fermion models

We construct the Drinfeld twists ( factorizing F-matrices) of the gl(m-n)-invariant fermion model. Completely symmetric representation of the pseudo-particle creation operators of the model are obtained in the basis provided by the F-matrix ( the F-basis). We resolve the hierarchy of the nested Bethe vectors in the F-basis for the gl(m-n) supersymmetric model.

Democracy versus Republic: Inclusion and Desire in Social Struggles

This paper argues that the idea of inclusion is linked to the democratic tradition rather than to the republican one. By analyzing the origins and meaning of these two concepts, the author holds that democracy is rather linked to desire and republic to will (and to the expression of desire), and concludes that, since North Atlantic political tradition has not given a key role to desire, democracy, in order to overcome the difficulties it has been encountering in all parts of the world, should take more account of desire and of the social struggles it brings to the fore.

Effect of sodium dodecylbenzene sulfonate on the motion of three-phase contact lines on the Wilhelmy plate surface

The combined approach of the molecular-kinetic and hydrodynamic theories for description of the motion of three-phase gas-liquid-solid contact lines has been examined using the Wilhelmy plate method. The whole dynamic meniscus has been divided into molecular, hydrodynamic, and static-like regions. The Young-Laplace equation and the molecular-kinetic and hydrodynamic dewetting theories have been applied to describe the meniscus profiles and contact angle. The dissipative forces accompanying the dynamic dewetting have also been investigated. The experiments with a Wilhelmy plate made from an acrylic polymer sheet were carried out using a computerized apparatus for contact angle analysis (OCA 20, DataPhysics, Germany). The extrapolated dynamic contact angle versus velocity of the three-phase contact line for Milli-Q water and 5 x 10(-4) M SDBS solution was experimentally obtained and compared with the combined MHD models with low and moderate Reynolds numbers. The models predict similar results for the extrapolated contact angle. SDBS decreases the equilibrium contact angle and increases the molecular jumping length but does not affect the molecular frequency significantly. The hydrodynamic deformation of the meniscus, viscous dissipation, and friction were also influenced by the SDBS surfactant. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.