Toxic substances in blood: an analysis of current recommendations under a Bayesian (decision) approach

This article extends existing discussion in literature on probabilistic inference and decision making with respect to continuous hypotheses that are prevalent in forensic toxicology. As a main aim, this research investigates the properties of a widely followed approach for quantifying the level of toxic substances in blood samples, and to compare this procedure with a Bayesian probabilistic approach. As an example, attention is confined to the presence of toxic substances, such as THC, in blood from car drivers. In this context, the interpretation of results from laboratory analyses needs to take into account legal requirements for establishing the 'presence' of target substances in blood. In a first part, the performance of the proposed Bayesian model for the estimation of an unknown parameter (here, the amount of a toxic substance) is illustrated and compared with the currently used method. The model is then used in a second part to approach-in a rational way-the decision component of the problem, that is judicial questions of the kind 'Is the quantity of THC measured in the blood over the legal threshold of 1.5 μg/l?'. This is pointed out through a practical example.

Implementing statistical learning methods through Bayesian networks. Part 1: a guide to Bayesian parameter estimation using forensic science data

As a thorough aggregation of probability and graph theory, Bayesian networks currently enjoy widespread interest as a means for studying factors that affect the coherent evaluation of scientific evidence in forensic science. Paper I of this series of papers intends to contribute to the discussion of Bayesian networks as a framework that is helpful for both illustrating and implementing statistical procedures that are commonly employed for the study of uncertainties (e.g. the estimation of unknown quantities). While the respective statistical procedures are widely described in literature, the primary aim of this paper is to offer an essentially non-technical introduction on how interested readers may use these analytical approaches - with the help of Bayesian networks - for processing their own forensic science data. Attention is mainly drawn to the structure and underlying rationale of a series of basic and context-independent network fragments that users may incorporate as building blocs while constructing larger inference models. As an example of how this may be done, the proposed concepts will be used in a second paper (Part II) for specifying graphical probability networks whose purpose is to assist forensic scientists in the evaluation of scientific evidence encountered in the context of forensic document examination (i.e. results of the analysis of black toners present on printed or copied documents).

Psychological distress in adult survivors of childhood cancer: the Swiss Childhood Cancer Survivor study.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the degree of psychological distress in adult childhood cancer survivors in Switzerland and to characterize survivors with significant distress. METHODS: Childhood cancer survivors who were age younger than 16 years when diagnosed between 1976 and 2003, had survived more than 5 years, and were currently age 20 years or older received a postal questionnaire. Psychological distress was assessed using the Brief Symptom Inventory (BSI). Raw scores were transformed into T scores according to the German norm sample, and the proportion of participants being at increased risk for psychological distress was calculated (case rule: T > or = 63). t tests and univariable and multivariable logistic regressions were used for statistical analyses. RESULTS: One thousand seventy-six survivors (63.% of eligible survivors, 71.9% of contacted survivors) returned the questionnaire, 987 with complete data on BSI. Comparison with the norm populations showed lower T scores (T < 50) in the Global Severity Index (GSI; T = 46.2), somatization (T = 47.6), obsessive-compulsive tendencies (T = 46.9), and anxiety (T = 48.4). However, more childhood cancer survivors (especially women) had increased distress for GSI (14.4%), interpersonal sensitivity (16.5%), depression (13.4%), aggression (16.9%), and psychotic tendencies (15.6%) than the expected 10% from the norm population. Caseness was associated with female sex, being a single child, older age at study, and self-reported late effects, especially psychological problems. CONCLUSION: Results show that childhood cancer survivors, on average, have less psychological distress than a norm population but that the proportion of survivors at risk for high psychological distress is disproportionally large. Monitoring psychological distress in childhood cancer survivors may be desirable during routine follow-up, and psychological support should be offered as needed.

Silicon quantum dots embedded in a SiO2 matrix: From structural study to carrier transport properties

We study the details of electronic transport related to the atomistic structure of silicon quantum dots embedded in a silicon dioxide matrix using ab initio calculations of the density of states. Several structural and composition features of quantum dots (QDs), such as diameter and amorphization level, are studied and correlated with transport under transfer Hamiltonian formalism. The current is strongly dependent on the QD density of states and on the conduction gap, both dependent on the dot diameter. In particular, as size increases, the available states inside the QD increase, while the QD band gap decreases due to relaxation of quantum confinement. Both effects contribute to increasing the current with the dot size. Besides, valence band offset between the band edges of the QD and the silica, and conduction band offset in a minor grade, increases with the QD diameter up to the theoretical value corresponding to planar heterostructures, thus decreasing the tunneling transmission probability and hence the total current. We discuss the influence of these parameters on electron and hole transport, evidencing a correlation between the electron (hole) barrier value and the electron (hole) current, and obtaining a general enhancement of the electron (hole) transport for larger (smaller) QD. Finally, we show that crystalline and amorphous structures exhibit enhanced probability of hole and electron current, respectively.

Optimització i aprofitament del temps de pràctica motriu en les classes deducació física d'un grup de 4t ESO

Amb aquest treball d‟investigació es pretén fer veure al docent la importància d‟una adequada gestió del temps de classe d‟Educació Física (E.F.), concretament, abans, durant i al final de la sessió, amb l‟objectiu d‟augmentar el temps de compromís motor dels alumnes. Tanmateix citaré autors i esmentaré estudis que demostren que un increment en el temps de compromís motor per part de l‟alumne, augmenta la probabilitat de que s‟assoleixin els objectius proposats i, per tant, el procés d‟ensenyament – aprenentatge serà més eficaç. En conseqüència, s‟analitzen les categories i variables temporals (temps d‟informació del professor, temps d‟organització dels alumnes i del material i temps d‟imprevistos) que poden restar minuts al temps de pràctica motriu i, a la vegada, es presenten una sèrie de recursos i estratègies que ajuden al professor d‟E.F a reduir les accions i variables temporals que incideixen negativament a fi i efecte d‟augmentar el temps de pràctica motriu.

La atenuación en artículos de revisión odontológicos en español: estudio exploratorio

Describimos el uso de estrategias de atenuación en 40 artículos de revisión (AR), publicados en español en revistas iberoamericanas entre 1994 y 2004. Identificamos las estrategias empleadas en las secciones retóricas por medio de un análisis contextual de género y clasificamos los atenuantes en cinco categorías: construcciones impersonales, deícticos temporales, aproximadores, escudos y atenuantes compuestos. Los resultados muestran que hay abundantes y variadas estrategias de atenuación en las tres secciones retóricas del AR, aunque son más frecuentes en el desarrollo y en la introducción. Predomina el modal epistémico “poder”, los adverbios y los adjetivos de posibilidad y probabilidad, y los verbos epistémicos. Registramos varias construcciones impersonales empleadas para atenuar. Los aproximadores se usan para expresar honestidad y varios niveles de certidumbre en las proposiciones; los deícticos temporales, para expresar provisionalidad y sugerir varias interpretaciones. Concluimos que la atenuación puede estar relacionada con la posición de los autores en la comunidad científica y con las características del AR como género discursivo. Asimismo, el nivel de expectativa en la escritura de este género podría condicionar cómo se presentan las proposiciones.

New diagnoses of dementia among older patients admitted to postacute care.

Objectives: To determine the prevalence of dementia and the proportion of undiagnosed dementia in elderly patients admitted to postacute care, and to identify patients' characteristics associated with undiagnosed dementia. Design: Cross-sectional study. Setting: Academic postacute rehabilitation facility in Lausanne, Switzerland. Participants: Patients (N = 1764) aged 70 years and older. Measurements: Data on socio-demographic, medical, functional, and affective status were collected upon admission. Data on cognitive performance (Mini-Mental State Exam [MMSE]), and cognition-related discharge diagnoses were abstracted through a structured review of discharge summaries. Results: Overall, 24.1% (425/1764) patients had a diagnosis of dementia, most frequently secondary to Alzheimer's disease (260/425, 61.2%). Among dementia cases, 70.8% (301/425) were newly diagnosed during postacute stay. This proportion was lower among patients referred from internal medicine than from orthopedic/surgery services (65.8% versus 74.8%, P = .042). Compared to patients with already diagnosed dementia, those newly diagnosed were older, lived alone more frequently, and had better functional status and MMSE score at admission (all P < .05). In multivariate analysis, previously undetected dementia remained associated with older age (OR = 2.4 for age 85 years and older, 95% CI 1.5-4.0, P = .001) and normal MMSE at admission (OR = 5.9, 95% CI 2.7-12.7, P < .001). Conclusion: Dementia was present in almost a fourth of elderly patients referred to postacute care, but was diagnosed in less than a third before admission. Oldest old patients appear especially at risk for underrecognition. These results emphasize the high diagnostic yield of systematic cognitive assessment in the postacute care setting to improve these patients' management and quality of life.

Surgical outcomes of deep sclerectomy versus Baerveldt aqueous shunt implantation following initial failed deep sclerectomy

Purpose: To examine the efficacy and safety of repeat deep sclerectomy (DS) versus Baerveldt shunt (BS) implantation as second line surgery following failed primary DS. Methods: Fifty one patients were prospectively recruited to undergo BS implantation following failed DS and 51 patients underwent repeat DS, for which data was collected retrospectively. All eyes had at least one failed DS. Surgical success was defined as IOP≤21mmHg and 20% reduction in IOP from baseline. Success rates, number of glaucoma medications (GMs), IOP, and complication rates were compared between the two groups at year 1, post-operatively. Results: Mean age, sex and the proportion of glaucoma subtypes were similar between groups. Preoperatively IOP was significantly lower in DS group vs BS group (18.8mmHg vs 23.8mmHg, p<0.01, two sample t-test). Postoperatively IOP was significantly higher in DS group than BS group (14.6mmHg vs 12.0mmHg, p<0.01, two-sample t-test). In the DS group, 47% of eyes did not achieve 20% reduction in IOP from baseline, as a result the success rates were significantly lower in eyes with DS (51%) than in eyes with BS (88%) (p=0.02, log-rank test). Preoperatively the number of GMs used in DS and BS groups were similar (2.2 vs 2.7 p=0.02, two sample t-test). Postoperatively there remained no significant difference in GMs between groups (0.9 vs 1.1, p= 0.58, two sample t-test). Complication rates were similar between the two groups (12% vs 10%). Conclusions: Baerveldt tube implantation was more effective in lowering IOP than repeat deep sclerectomy in eyes with failed primary DS, at year one. Complications were minor and infrequent in both groups

Graphical probabilistic analysis of the combination of items of evidence

Unlike the evaluation of single items of scientific evidence, the formal study and analysis of the jointevaluation of several distinct items of forensic evidence has to date received some punctual, ratherthan systematic, attention. Questions about the (i) relationships among a set of (usually unobservable)propositions and a set of (observable) items of scientific evidence, (ii) the joint probative valueof a collection of distinct items of evidence as well as (iii) the contribution of each individual itemwithin a given group of pieces of evidence still represent fundamental areas of research. To somedegree, this is remarkable since both, forensic science theory and practice, yet many daily inferencetasks, require the consideration of multiple items if not masses of evidence. A recurrent and particularcomplication that arises in such settings is that the application of probability theory, i.e. the referencemethod for reasoning under uncertainty, becomes increasingly demanding. The present paper takesthis as a starting point and discusses graphical probability models, i.e. Bayesian networks, as frameworkwithin which the joint evaluation of scientific evidence can be approached in some viable way.Based on a review of existing main contributions in this area, the article here aims at presentinginstances of real case studies from the author's institution in order to point out the usefulness andcapacities of Bayesian networks for the probabilistic assessment of the probative value of multipleand interrelated items of evidence. A main emphasis is placed on underlying general patterns of inference,their representation as well as their graphical probabilistic analysis. Attention is also drawnto inferential interactions, such as redundancy, synergy and directional change. These distinguish thejoint evaluation of evidence from assessments of isolated items of evidence. Together, these topicspresent aspects of interest to both, domain experts and recipients of expert information, because theyhave bearing on how multiple items of evidence are meaningfully and appropriately set into context.

Proton Therapy for Uveal Melanoma in 43 Juvenile Patients: Long-Term Results.

PURPOSE: To examine the metastatic and survival rates, eye retention probability, and the visual outcomes of juvenile patients after proton beam radiotherapy (PBRT) for uveal melanoma (UM). DESIGN: Retrospective case-factor matched control study. PARTICIPANTS AND CONTROLS: Forty-three patients younger than 21 years treated with PBRT for UM were compared with 129 matched adult control patients. METHODS: Information on patient demographics and clinical characteristics were recorded before and after treatment from patients' files. The control group was composed of adult patients (>21 years) matched for tumor size (largest tumor diameter, ±2 mm; height, ±2 mm) and anterior margin location (iris, ciliary body, pre-equatorial or postequatorial choroid). For each juvenile patient, 3 adults were selected. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Comparing outcomes of juvenile and adult patients in terms of metastatic and eye retention rates using the log-rank statistic, relative survival using the Hakulinen method, as well as their visual outcomes. RESULTS: Forty-three juvenile and 129 control cases were reviewed. The metastatic rate at 10 years was significantly lower in juvenile UM patients than in adult controls (11% vs. 34%; P <0.01), with an associated relative survival rate of 93% versus 65% (P = 0.02). Six juvenile patients (14%) demonstrated metastases. One patient underwent enucleation because of a presumed local tumor recurrence and 4 additional patients underwent enucleation because of complications (9.3%). In the adult control group, 27% (n = 35) of matched patients demonstrated metastases, there were 2 cases of local recurrence, and 16% (n = 21) underwent enucleation because of complications. A visual acuity of more than 0.10 was maintained in most cases, without any significant differences before or after treatment observed between both groups. CONCLUSIONS: After PBRT, metastatic and survival rates are significantly better for juvenile than for adult patients with UM. Clinically, juvenile and adult eyes react similarly to PBRT, with patients having a comparable eye retention probability and maintaining a useful level of vision in most cases. This is the largest case-control study of proton therapy in juvenile eyes to date and further validates PBRT as an appropriate conservative treatment for UM in patients younger than 21 years.

Frames: a maximum entropy statistical estimate of the inverse problem

A maximum entropy statistical treatment of an inverse problem concerning frame theory is presented. The problem arises from the fact that a frame is an overcomplete set of vectors that defines a mapping with no unique inverse. Although any vector in the concomitant space can be expressed as a linear combination of frame elements, the coefficients of the expansion are not unique. Frame theory guarantees the existence of a set of coefficients which is “optimal” in a minimum norm sense. We show here that these coefficients are also “optimal” from a maximum entropy viewpoint.

Variation in performance in low-volume mammography screening programmes: experience from Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Reading volume and mammography screening performance appear positively correlated. Quality and effectiveness were compared across low-volume screening programmes targeting relatively small populations and operating under the same decentralised healthcare system. Except for accreditation of 2nd readers (restrictive vs non-restrictive strategy), these organised programmes had similar screening regimen/procedures and duration, which maximises comparability. Variation in performance and its determinants were explored in order to improve mammography practice and optimise screening performance. METHODS: Circa 200,000 screens performed between 1999 and 2006 (4 rounds) in 3 longest standing Swiss cantonal programmes (of Vaud, Geneva and Valais) were assessed. Indicators of quality and effectiveness were assessed according to European standards. Interval cancers were identified through linkage with cancer registries records. RESULTS: Swiss programmes met most European standards of performance with a substantial, favourable cancer stage shift. Up to a two-fold variation occurred for several performance indicators. In subsequent rounds, compared with programmes (Vaud and Geneva) that applied a restrictive selection strategy for 2nd readers, proportions of in situ lesions and of small cancers (≤1cm) were one third lower and halved, respectively, and the proportion of advanced lesions (stage II+) nearly 50% higher in the programme without a restrictive selection strategy. Discrepancy in second-year proportional incidence of interval cancers appears to be multicausal. CONCLUSION: Differences in performance could partly be explained by a selective strategy for second readers and a prior experience in service screening, but not by the levels of opportunistic screening and programme attendance. This study provides clues for enhancing mammography screening performance in low-volume programmes.

Studies on integrating kinematic design method with mechanical systems simulation techniques

Theultimate goal of any research in the mechanism/kinematic/design area may be called predictive design, ie the optimisation of mechanism proportions in the design stage without requiring extensive life and wear testing. This is an ambitious goal and can be realised through development and refinement of numerical (computational) technology in order to facilitate the design analysis and optimisation of complex mechanisms, mechanical components and systems. As a part of the systematic design methodology this thesis concentrates on kinematic synthesis (kinematic design and analysis) methods in the mechanism synthesis process. The main task of kinematic design is to find all possible solutions in the form of structural parameters to accomplish the desired requirements of motion. Main formulations of kinematic design can be broadly divided to exact synthesis and approximate synthesis formulations. The exact synthesis formulation is based in solving n linear or nonlinear equations in n variables and the solutions for the problem areget by adopting closed form classical or modern algebraic solution methods or using numerical solution methods based on the polynomial continuation or homotopy. The approximate synthesis formulations is based on minimising the approximation error by direct optimisation The main drawbacks of exact synthesis formulationare: (ia) limitations of number of design specifications and (iia) failure in handling design constraints- especially inequality constraints. The main drawbacks of approximate synthesis formulations are: (ib) it is difficult to choose a proper initial linkage and (iib) it is hard to find more than one solution. Recentformulations in solving the approximate synthesis problem adopts polynomial continuation providing several solutions, but it can not handle inequality const-raints. Based on the practical design needs the mixed exact-approximate position synthesis with two exact and an unlimited number of approximate positions has also been developed. The solutions space is presented as a ground pivot map but thepole between the exact positions cannot be selected as a ground pivot. In this thesis the exact synthesis problem of planar mechanism is solved by generating all possible solutions for the optimisation process ¿ including solutions in positive dimensional solution sets - within inequality constraints of structural parameters. Through the literature research it is first shown that the algebraic and numerical solution methods ¿ used in the research area of computational kinematics ¿ are capable of solving non-parametric algebraic systems of n equations inn variables and cannot handle the singularities associated with positive-dimensional solution sets. In this thesis the problem of positive-dimensional solutionsets is solved adopting the main principles from mathematical research area of algebraic geometry in solving parametric ( in the mathematical sense that all parameter values are considered ¿ including the degenerate cases ¿ for which the system is solvable ) algebraic systems of n equations and at least n+1 variables.Adopting the developed solution method in solving the dyadic equations in direct polynomial form in two- to three-precision-points it has been algebraically proved and numerically demonstrated that the map of the ground pivots is ambiguousand that the singularities associated with positive-dimensional solution sets can be solved. The positive-dimensional solution sets associated with the poles might contain physically meaningful solutions in the form of optimal defectfree mechanisms. Traditionally the mechanism optimisation of hydraulically driven boommechanisms is done at early state of the design process. This will result in optimal component design rather than optimal system level design. Modern mechanismoptimisation at system level demands integration of kinematic design methods with mechanical system simulation techniques. In this thesis a new kinematic design method for hydraulically driven boom mechanism is developed and integrated in mechanical system simulation techniques. The developed kinematic design method is based on the combinations of two-precision-point formulation and on optimisation ( with mathematical programming techniques or adopting optimisation methods based on probability and statistics ) of substructures using calculated criteria from the system level response of multidegree-of-freedom mechanisms. Eg. by adopting the mixed exact-approximate position synthesis in direct optimisation (using mathematical programming techniques) with two exact positions and an unlimitednumber of approximate positions the drawbacks of (ia)-(iib) has been cancelled.The design principles of the developed method are based on the design-tree -approach of the mechanical systems and the design method ¿ in principle ¿ is capable of capturing the interrelationship between kinematic and dynamic synthesis simultaneously when the developed kinematic design method is integrated with the mechanical system simulation techniques.

Adjuvant radiotherapy for gastric carcinoma: 10 years follow-up of 244 cases from a single institution.

BACKGROUND: Postoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) of gastric carcinoma improves survival among high- risk patients. This study was undertaken to analyse long-term survival probability and the impact of certain covariates on the survival outcome in affected individuals. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between January 2000 and December 2005, 244 patients with gastric cancer underwent adjuvant radiotherapy (RT) in our institution. Data were retrieved retrospectively from patient files and analysed with SPSS version 21.0. RESULTS: A total of 244 cases, with a male to female ratio of 2.2:1, were enrolled in the study. The median age of the patients was 52 years (range, 20-78 years). Surgical margin status was positive or close in 72 (33%) out of 220 patients. Postoperative adjuvant RT dose was 46 Gy. Median follow-up was 99 months (range, 79-132 months) and 23 months (range, 2-155 months) for surviving patients and all patients, respectively. Actuarial overall survival (OS) probability for 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year was 79%, 37%, 24% and 16%, respectively. Actuarial progression free survival (PFS) probability was 69%, 34%, 23% and 16% in the same consecutive order. AJCC Stage I-II disease, subtotal gastrectomy and adjuvant CRT were significantly associated with improved OS and PFS in multivariate analyses. Surgical margin status or lymph node dissection type were not prognostic for survival. CONCLUSIONS: Postoperative CRT should be considered for all patients with high risk of recurrence after gastrectomy. Beside well-known prognostic factors such as stage, lymph node status and concurrent chemotherapy, the type of gastrectomy was an important prognostic factor in our series. With our findings we add to the discussion on the definition of required surgical margin for subtotal gastrectomy. We consider that our observations in gastric cancer patients in our clinic can be useful in the future randomised trials to point the way to improved outcomes.