A policy dimension required for technology roadmapping: Learning from the emergence of Chinese wind turbine industry

Innovation policies play an important role throughout the development process of emerging industries in China. Existing policy and industry studies view the emergence process as a black-box, and fail to understand the impacts of policy to the process along which it varies. This paper aims to develop a multi-dimensional roadmapping tool to better analyse the dynamics between policy and industrial growth for new industries in China. Through reviewing the emergence process of Chinese wind turbine industry, this paper elaborates how policy and other factors influence the emergence of this industry along this path. Further, this paper generalises some Chinese specifics for the policy-industry dynamics. As a practical output, this study proposes a roadmapping framework that generalises some patterns of policy-industry interactions for the emergence process of new industries in China. This paper will be of interest to policy makers, strategists, investors and industrial experts. Copyright © 2013 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Gaussian Processes for Machine Learning

The code provided here originally demonstrated the main algorithms from Rasmussen and Williams: Gaussian Processes for Machine Learning. It has since grown to allow more likelihood functions, further inference methods and a flexible framework for specifying GPs.

Bayesian Learning of Noisy Markov Decision Processes

We consider the inverse reinforcement learning problem, that is, the problem of learning from, and then predicting or mimicking a controller based on state/action data. We propose a statistical model for such data, derived from the structure of a Markov decision process. Adopting a Bayesian approach to inference, we show how latent variables of the model can be estimated, and how predictions about actions can be made, in a unified framework. A new Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler is devised for simulation from the posterior distribution. This step includes a parameter expansion step, which is shown to be essential for good convergence properties of the MCMC sampler. As an illustration, the method is applied to learning a human controller.

Does temporal discounting explain unhealthy behavior? A systematic review and reinforcement learning perspective.

The tendency to make unhealthy choices is hypothesized to be related to an individual's temporal discount rate, the theoretical rate at which they devalue delayed rewards. Furthermore, a particular form of temporal discounting, hyperbolic discounting, has been proposed to explain why unhealthy behavior can occur despite healthy intentions. We examine these two hypotheses in turn. We first systematically review studies which investigate whether discount rates can predict unhealthy behavior. These studies reveal that high discount rates for money (and in some instances food or drug rewards) are associated with several unhealthy behaviors and markers of health status, establishing discounting as a promising predictive measure. We secondly examine whether intention-incongruent unhealthy actions are consistent with hyperbolic discounting. We conclude that intention-incongruent actions are often triggered by environmental cues or changes in motivational state, whose effects are not parameterized by hyperbolic discounting. We propose a framework for understanding these state-based effects in terms of the interplay of two distinct reinforcement learning mechanisms: a "model-based" (or goal-directed) system and a "model-free" (or habitual) system. Under this framework, while discounting of delayed health may contribute to the initiation of unhealthy behavior, with repetition, many unhealthy behaviors become habitual; if health goals then change, habitual behavior can still arise in response to environmental cues. We propose that the burgeoning development of computational models of these processes will permit further identification of health decision-making phenotypes.

A Theory of Networks for Appxoimation and Learning

Learning an input-output mapping from a set of examples, of the type that many neural networks have been constructed to perform, can be regarded as synthesizing an approximation of a multi-dimensional function, that is solving the problem of hypersurface reconstruction. From this point of view, this form of learning is closely related to classical approximation techniques, such as generalized splines and regularization theory. This paper considers the problems of an exact representation and, in more detail, of the approximation of linear and nolinear mappings in terms of simpler functions of fewer variables. Kolmogorov's theorem concerning the representation of functions of several variables in terms of functions of one variable turns out to be almost irrelevant in the context of networks for learning. We develop a theoretical framework for approximation based on regularization techniques that leads to a class of three-layer networks that we call Generalized Radial Basis Functions (GRBF), since they are mathematically related to the well-known Radial Basis Functions, mainly used for strict interpolation tasks. GRBF networks are not only equivalent to generalized splines, but are also closely related to pattern recognition methods such as Parzen windows and potential functions and to several neural network algorithms, such as Kanerva's associative memory, backpropagation and Kohonen's topology preserving map. They also have an interesting interpretation in terms of prototypes that are synthesized and optimally combined during the learning stage. The paper introduces several extensions and applications of the technique and discusses intriguing analogies with neurobiological data.

Learning Object-Independent Modes of Variation with Feature Flow Fields

We present a unifying framework in which "object-independent" modes of variation are learned from continuous-time data such as video sequences. These modes of variation can be used as "generators" to produce a manifold of images of a new object from a single example of that object. We develop the framework in the context of a well-known example: analyzing the modes of spatial deformations of a scene under camera movement. Our method learns a close approximation to the standard affine deformations that are expected from the geometry of the situation, and does so in a completely unsupervised (i.e. ignorant of the geometry of the situation) fashion. We stress that it is learning a "parameterization", not just the parameter values, of the data. We then demonstrate how we have used the same framework to derive a novel data-driven model of joint color change in images due to common lighting variations. The model is superior to previous models of color change in describing non-linear color changes due to lighting.

A framework for the transformation of the creative industries in a digital age.

The creative industries sector faces a constantly changing context characterised by the speed of the development and deployment of digital information systems and Information Communications Technologies (ICT) on a global scale. This continuous digital disruption has had significant impact on the whole value chain of the sector: creation and production; discovery and distribution; and consumption of cultural goods and services. As a result, creative enterprises must evolve business and operational models and practices to be sustainable. Enterprises of all scales, type, and operational model are affected, and all sectors face ongoing digital disruption. Management consultancy practitioners and business strategy academics have called for new strategy development frameworks and toolkits, fit for a continuously changing world. This thesis investigates a novel approach to organisational change appropriate to the digital age, in the context of the creative sector in Scotland. A set of concepts, methods, tools, and processes to generate theoretical learning and practical knowing was created to support enterprises to digitally adapt through undertaking journeys of change and organisational development. The framework is called The AmbITion Approach. It was developed by blending participatory action research (PAR) methods and modern management consultancy, design, and creative practices. Empirical work also introduced to the framework Coghlan and Rashford’s change categories. These enabled the definition and description of the extent to which organisations developed: whether they experienced first order (change), second order (adaptation) or third order (transformation) change. Digital research tools for inquiry were tested by a pilot study, and then embedded in a longitudinal study over two years of twentyone participant organisations from Scotland’s creative sector. The author applied and investigated the novel approach in a national digital development programme for Scotland’s creative industries. The programme was designed and delivered by the author and ran nationally between 2012-14. Detailed grounded thematic analysis of the data corpus was undertaken, along with analysis of rich media case studies produced by the organisations about their change journeys. The results of studies on participants, and validation criteria applied to the results, demonstrated that the framework triggers second (adaptation) and third order change (transformation) in creative industry enterprises. The AmbITion Approach framework is suitable for the continuing landscape of digital disruption within the creative sector. The thesis contributes to practice the concepts, methods, tools, and processes of The AmbITion Approach, which have been empirically tested in the field, and validated as a new framework for business transformation in a digital age. The thesis contributes to knowledge a theoretical and conceptual framework with a specific set of constructs and criteria that define first, second, and third order change in creative enterprises, and a robust research and action framework for the analysis of the quality, validity and change achieved by action research based development programmes. The thesis additionally contributes to the practice of research, adding to our understanding of the value of PAR and design thinking approaches and creative practices as methods for change.

Novelty and Habituation: the Driving Forces in Early Stage Learning for Developmental Robotics

Meng, Q., & Lee, M. (2005). Novelty and Habituation: the Driving Forces in Early Stage Learning for Developmental Robotics. Wermter, S., Palm, G., & Elshaw, M. (Eds.), In: Biomimetic Neural Learning for Intelligent Robots: Intelligent Systems, Cognitive Robotics, and Neuroscience. (pp. 315-332). (Lecture Notes in Computer Science). Springer Berlin Heidelberg.

Novelty and Habituation: the Driving Forces in Early Stage Learning for Developmental Robotics

Q. Meng and M. H. Lee, Novelty and Habituation: the Driving Forces in Early Stage Learning for Developmental Robotics, AI-Workshop on NeuroBotics, University of Ulm, Germany. September 2004.

A Framework for the Scoring of Operators on the Search Space of Equivalence Classes of Bayesian Network Structures

R. Daly and Q. Shen. A Framework for the Scoring of Operators on the Search Space of Equivalence Classes of Bayesian Network Structures. Proceedings of the 2005 UK Workshop on Computational Intelligence, pages 67-74.

The effect of market and learning orientation on strategy dynamics : The contributing effect of organisational change capability

McGuinness, T. and Morgan, R. (2005). The effect of market and learning orientation on strategy dynamics: The contributing effect of organisational change capability. European Journal of Marketing. 39(11-12), pp.1306-1326 RAE2008

Simultaneous Learning of Nonlinear Manifold and Dynamical Models for High-dimensional Time Series

The goal of this work is to learn a parsimonious and informative representation for high-dimensional time series. Conceptually, this comprises two distinct yet tightly coupled tasks: learning a low-dimensional manifold and modeling the dynamical process. These two tasks have a complementary relationship as the temporal constraints provide valuable neighborhood information for dimensionality reduction and conversely, the low-dimensional space allows dynamics to be learnt efficiently. Solving these two tasks simultaneously allows important information to be exchanged mutually. If nonlinear models are required to capture the rich complexity of time series, then the learning problem becomes harder as the nonlinearities in both tasks are coupled. The proposed solution approximates the nonlinear manifold and dynamics using piecewise linear models. The interactions among the linear models are captured in a graphical model. By exploiting the model structure, efficient inference and learning algorithms are obtained without oversimplifying the model of the underlying dynamical process. Evaluation of the proposed framework with competing approaches is conducted in three sets of experiments: dimensionality reduction and reconstruction using synthetic time series, video synthesis using a dynamic texture database, and human motion synthesis, classification and tracking on a benchmark data set. In all experiments, the proposed approach provides superior performance.

Simultaneous Learning of Non-Linear Manifold and Dynamical Models for High-Dimensional Time Series

The goal of this work is to learn a parsimonious and informative representation for high-dimensional time series. Conceptually, this comprises two distinct yet tightly coupled tasks: learning a low-dimensional manifold and modeling the dynamical process. These two tasks have a complementary relationship as the temporal constraints provide valuable neighborhood information for dimensionality reduction and conversely, the low-dimensional space allows dynamics to be learnt efficiently. Solving these two tasks simultaneously allows important information to be exchanged mutually. If nonlinear models are required to capture the rich complexity of time series, then the learning problem becomes harder as the nonlinearities in both tasks are coupled. The proposed solution approximates the nonlinear manifold and dynamics using piecewise linear models. The interactions among the linear models are captured in a graphical model. The model structure setup and parameter learning are done using a variational Bayesian approach, which enables automatic Bayesian model structure selection, hence solving the problem of over-fitting. By exploiting the model structure, efficient inference and learning algorithms are obtained without oversimplifying the model of the underlying dynamical process. Evaluation of the proposed framework with competing approaches is conducted in three sets of experiments: dimensionality reduction and reconstruction using synthetic time series, video synthesis using a dynamic texture database, and human motion synthesis, classification and tracking on a benchmark data set. In all experiments, the proposed approach provides superior performance.

Self-Organizing Information Fusion and Hierarchical Knowledge Discovery: A New Framework Using Artmap Neural Networks

Classifying novel terrain or objects from sparse, complex data may require the resolution of conflicting information from sensors woring at different times, locations, and scales, and from sources with different goals and situations. Information fusion methods can help resolve inconsistencies, as when eveidence variously suggests that and object's class is car, truck, or airplane. The methods described her address a complementary problem, supposing that information from sensors and experts is reliable though inconsistent, as when evidence suggests that an object's class is car, vehicle, and man-made. Underlying relationships among classes are assumed to be unknown to the autonomated system or the human user. The ARTMAP information fusion system uses distributed code representations that exploit the neural network's capacity for one-to-many learning in order to produce self-organizing expert systems that discover hierachical knowlege structures. The fusion system infers multi-level relationships among groups of output classes, without any supervised labeling of these relationships. The procedure is illustrated with two image examples, but is not limited to image domain.

KInNeSS: A Modular Framework for Computational Neuroscience

Making use of very detailed neurophysiological, anatomical, and behavioral data to build biological-realistic computational models of animal behavior is often a difficult task. Until recently, many software packages have tried to resolve this mismatched granularity with different approaches. This paper presents KInNeSS, the KDE Integrated NeuroSimulation Software environment, as an alternative solution to bridge the gap between data and model behavior. This open source neural simulation software package provides an expandable framework incorporating features such as ease of use, scalabiltiy, an XML based schema, and multiple levels of granularity within a modern object oriented programming design. KInNeSS is best suited to simulate networks of hundreds to thousands of branched multu-compartmental neurons with biophysical properties such as membrane potential, voltage-gated and ligand-gated channels, the presence of gap junctions of ionic diffusion, neuromodulation channel gating, the mechanism for habituative or depressive synapses, axonal delays, and synaptic plasticity. KInNeSS outputs include compartment membrane voltage, spikes, local-field potentials, and current source densities, as well as visualization of the behavior of a simulated agent. An explanation of the modeling philosophy and plug-in development is also presented. Further developement of KInNeSS is ongoing with the ultimate goal of creating a modular framework that will help researchers across different disciplines to effecitively collaborate using a modern neural simulation platform.