The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity

We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the United States. We identify the coincident index by assuming that the coincident variables have a common cycle with the unobserved state of the economy, and that the NBER business cycle dates signify the turning points in the unobserved state. This model allows us to estimate our coincident index as a linear combination of the coincident series. We compare the performance of our index with other currently popular coincident indices of economic activity.

A monthly indicator of Brazilian GDP. The Brazilian business cycle and growth cycle

This paper constructs an indicator of Brazilian GDP at the monthly ftequency. The peculiar instability and abrupt changes of regimes in the dynamic behavior of the Brazilian business cycle were explicitly modeled within nonlinear ftameworks. In particular, a Markov switching dynarnic factor model was used to combine several macroeconomic variables that display simultaneous comovements with aggregate economic activity. The model generates as output a monthly indicator of the Brazilian GDP and real time probabilities of the current phase of the Brazilian business cycle. The monthly indicator shows a remarkable historical conformity with cyclical movements of GDP. In addition, the estimated filtered probabilities predict ali recessions in sample and out-of-sample. The ability of the indicator in linear forecasting growth rates of GDP is also examined. The estimated indicator displays a better in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance in forecasting growth rates of real GDP, compared to a linear autoregressive model for GDP. These results suggest that the estimated monthly indicator can be used to forecast GDP and to monitor the state of the Brazilian economy in real time.

Judicial system performance and economic development

The role of judicial systems in determining economic perfonnance has gained increasingly attention in recent years. Nonetheless, the literature lacks a clearly articulated framework to examine how judicial systems influence the investment and production decisions of economic agents. This paper tries to till in this gap. It examines what constitutes a well-functioning judiciary, analyzes how dysfunctional judicial systems compromise economic growth, and reviews the relevant empirical literature. It concludes with some remarks about why, despite the widespread perception that well-functioning legal and judicial systems are key to the success of market-oriented reforms in developing and transition countries, judicial refonn has lagged so much behind other reforms.

Confiança na gestão de equipes de alto desempenho da indústria farmacêutica

Na indústria farmacêutica (IF) são fundamentais as relações de confiança nas equipes de trabalho em todos os níveis. Há um forte impacto das mudanças, e da consequente incerteza, na confiança entre as equipes e sua motivação. Na produção acadêmica recente, as relações entre confiança e desempenho são exploradas e, particularmente, temos os resultados da primeira pesquisa feita no Brasil para mensurar os níveis de confiança interpessoal, indicadores de confiança e comprometimento dos colaboradores dentro de grandes empresas privadas. As empresas estudadas, e comparadas pelo Prof. Zanini, foram representantes da “nova” e “velha” economia, entre as quais os grandes diferenciadores são a gestão do conhecimento e o nível de incerteza decorrente das frequentes mudanças. Estes são pontos que aproximam as empresas da indústria farmacêutica de pesquisa às da “nova” economia segundo a abordagem proposta na pesquisa do Prof. Zanini. As empresas da indústria farmacêutica estarão implementando mudanças importantes em sua forma de conduzir o negócio, principalmente no que toca à comunicação, promoção e gestão das equipes comerciais nos próximos anos e este parece ser um momento particularmente interessante para uma pesquisa como esta. O objetivo deste trabalho foi determinar o nível de similaridade das equipes de propaganda (comerciais) do segmento de produtos biológicos (vacinas) de uma grande empresa multinacional da indústria farmacêutica de pesquisa, com os as equipes de empresas da nova economia. Pretendemos mensurar os níveis de confiança interpessoal, indicadores de confiança e comprometimento dos componentes das equipes comerciais da empresa, com vistas a examinar os efeitos das incertezas institucionais sobre os mesmos. As ferramentas de pesquisa foram: um formulário previamente validado aplicado aos 56 membros da força de vendas de uma área específica da empresa; dados públicos e privados da empresa (que permanecerá identificada como Empresa “J”) e entrevistas em profundidade com os gestores-chave da equipe sob avaliação: gerentes nacionais e distritais da força de vendas. Foi encontrada alguma similaridade entre os índices das empresas da “velha” economia e os da empresa “J”, para a maioria das avaliações. Entretanto, alguma semelhança entre os índices da Empresa “J” e os das empresas da “nova” economia também foi evidenciada, sobretudo na avaliação dos gerentes desta. Isto poderia indicar o impacto de algumas medidas implementadas pela Empresa “J” mais recentemente, que podem ter colaborado na geração de um ambiente de incerteza institucional e instabilidade. A partir da obtenção e comparação destes índices, são propostas considerações sobre as mudanças ocorridas nos contratos relacionais de trabalho dentro da Empresa “J” nos últimos anos e sobre as dinâmicas aparentes nas relações de sua equipe comercial.

Desempenho dos serviços de atenção primária do município de Natal/RN para o diagnóstico e controle da tuberculose

Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the most important health problems being faced worldwide. In Brazil, the responsibility for the actions of to diagnosis and control of this disease was transferred to the municipalities within the Primary Health Care (PHC), aiming at improvement in epidemiological indicators, requiring reorientation of the practice of family health teams and requiring methodologies to analyze the extent to which components of the PHC are being achieved. Thus, this study aims to analyze the performance of primary care services in the city of Natal-RN for the diagnosis and control of TB, from the perspective of health professionals (doctors and nurses). The study is descriptive, cross-sectional and quantitative. Data collection was conducted from March to July 2011 and involved 121 health professionals working in 52 health units (family health unit, basic health unit and mixed units). The instrument is structured based on the Primary Care Assessment Tool (PCAT), validated and adapted to assess attention to TB in Brazil, and includes questions regarding the Structure and Process components of health services. For quantitative analysis, it was constructed indicators, whose response patterns are followed according to the Likert scale between one and five, which meant the degree of preference relation (or agreement) of the claims. Values between 1 and 3 were considered unsatisfactory for the indicator, between 3 and less than 4, regular, and between 4 and 5, satisfactory. With regard to inputs and equipment, the units had satisfactory condition for form (  = 4.26), consultation (  = 4.02) and basic basket (  = 4.24); regular condition to pot (  = 3.56) and unsatisfactory conditions for transportation tickets (  = 1.50) and sputum smear microscopy (  = 2.42) and X-rays (  = 1.07). In relation to actions, there was satisfactory development for those focused on the individual patient. Actions aimed at the collective level, as the search for respiratory symptoms (RS), monitoring of contacts and guidelines for the community ranged from regular to unsatisfactory (  = 3.16 -  = 1.34). With regard to training, 94,2% received training to identify RS. As regards the time for diagnosis, the median time elapsed between the identification of RS and the beginning of treatment it was 22 days. In relation to the difficulties faced by professionals in the diagnosis of TB, 56,2% reported that they are related only to health services, especially for the failure in the rearguard laboratory and in the specialized services reference, the lack of human and material resources and low performing an active search. The professionals perceive the performance of diagnosis and control of TB, permeated with limitations and barriers to organizational and operational character of various sizes, emerging the need for effective coordination of various sectors and key stakeholders of TB care, to adoption of a new intersectoral strategies that aim to increase the responsiveness of the PHC, providing the best performance in service delivery to the user, family and community, and ensuring effective action and resolving the needs of this population group.

Indicator-free electrochemical DNA hybridization biosensor

A new electrochemical hybridization biosensor protocol without an external indicator is described. The biosensor format involves the immobilization of inosine-substituted (guanine-free) probe onto the carbon paste transducer, and a direct chronopotentiometric detection of the duplex formation by the appearance of the guanine oxidation peak of the target. Such a use of the intrinsic DNA electrochemical response for monitoring hybridization events offers several advantages (over the common use of external indicators), including the appearance of a new peak, a Aat background, or simplicity. A 4 min short hybridization period allows a detection limit around 120 ng/ml. Performance characteristics of the sensor are described along with future prospects. (C) 1998 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Avaliação em saúde: reflexões inscritas no paradigma sanitário contemporâneo

O presente estudo apresenta uma análise reflexiva dos métodos de avaliação em saúde em uma perspectiva do cuidado pensado e praticado segundo as necessidades dos usuários. Várias são as formas e abordagens dos processos avaliativos na busca de uma melhor apreensão do objeto de avaliação; neste contexto, a satisfação do usuário surge como um indicador de qualidade dos serviços de saúde, ligada à maior adequação e promoção de reais mudanças nas práticas de saúde. Diante da inovadora proposta do Programa Saúde da Família (PSF), baseado nos princípios de integralidade, cuidado à saúde e humanização, a participação e a satisfação do usuário surgem como elementos-chave na formulação de suas ações, possibilitando mudanças no modelo assistencial hegemônico, a saber, positivista, assistencialista e curativista. A presença do usuário no processo avaliativo irá permitir uma peculiar atuação, remodelando as práticas de saúde - quiçá tornando-as mais humanas, acolhedoras e, conseqüentemente, mais resolutivas..

Dietary macronutrients and performance and plasma hormone and metabolite levels of broiler chickens fat by carbohydrate substitution

The present experiment was aimed to study the effects of an isocaloric substitution of fat by carbohydrate calories while maintaining the same CP content - on some endocrine parameters and key metabolites of the lipid (L), protein (CP) and carbohydrate (CHO) metabolism and muscle cell membrane integrity of broiler chickens. Ninety male broiler chicks (Cobb) were obtained at 1-day old and raised in an environmentally controlled room. Food and water was provided ad libitum. At day 7, the chicks were provided with the experimental diets: Control diet (CON: 20% CP; 9.1% L; 39.6% CHO), Low lipid diet (LowL: 22% CP; 3.36% L; 59.7% CHO), and low carbohydrate diet (LowCHO: 22% CP; 8.09% L; 46.7% CHO). T e chickens fed the CON manifested the best growth rate feed conversion compared to both other groups. The CO chickens showed the highest plasma T-3 Concentrations at 14 days of age as compared to both LowL and LowCHO chickens. At 35 days of age however, LowL chickens were characterized by the highest plasma T-3 levels. Overall, CON birds had the highest plasma T-4 levels (P < 0.0001) compared to LowL and LowCHO chickens. Plasma corticosterone levels were not affected by diet composition. Glucose levels increased towards the end of the experimental period, but there was no overall effect of diet composition on plasma glucose levels. Chickens fed the CON diet were consistently characterized by the highest plasma uric acid levels compared to LowL and LowCHO chickens. Irrespectively of diet, plasma triglyceride levels were high at 14 days of age, then decreased and finally increased again during the last week. This latter increase was most pronounced for the CON chickens and is congruous with their high fat deposition. At 28 days of age, a significant effect of diet was observed, as CON birds had lower plasma free fatty acid (FFA) levels compared to LowL but not to LowCHO chickens. However there was no overall effect of diet composition on plasma FFA levels. Creatine kinase (CK) activities increased significantly with age and were consistently higher in CON chickens. In conclusion, fast growth in broiler chickens is positively correlated with catabolism of protein from dietary or endogenous origin and (muscle) cell membrane disruption as reflected in high plasma uric acid levels and CK activity, respectively. The currently investigated substitution of fat by CHO had no marked effects on endocrine functioning and intermediary metabolism, but this does not exclude that larger substitutions between both nutrients can have an effect.

Pharmacokinetic Study of Nobiletin and Tangeretin in Rat Serum by High-Performance Liquid Chromatography-Electrospray Ionization-Mass Spectrometry

Nobiletin (NOB) and tangeretin (TAN), two of the main polymethoxylated flavones (PMFs) in citrus, influence a number of key biological pathways in mammalian cells. Although the impacts of NOB and TAN on glucose homeostasis and cholesterol regulation have been investigated in human clinical trials, much information is still lacking about the metabolism and oral bioavailability of these compounds in animals. In this study, NOB and TAN were administered to rats by gavage and intraperitoneal (ip) injection, and the blood serum concentrations of these compounds and their main metabolites were monitored by high-performance liquid chromatography-electrospray ionization-mass spectrometry (HPLC-ESI-MS). In addition to the administered compounds, two metabolites of TAN and eight metabolites of NOB were detected and measured over 24 h. With identical oral doses, nearly 10-fold higher absorption of NOB occurred compared to TAN. For both compounds, maximum levels of glucuronidated metabolites occurred in the blood serum at later time points (similar to 5-8 h) compared to the earlier T(max) a values for NOB and TAN. In most cases the glucuronides occurred at substantially higher concentrations than the aglycone metabolites. Low levels of NOB and TAN and their metabolites were detectable in rat blood serum even at 24 h after treatment.

Review of Caribbean economic and social performance in the 1980's and 1990's

Includes bibliography

Education and the labour market in Latin America: why measurement is important and what it tells us about policies, reforms and performance

Includes bibliography

The potential of Aid for Trade to improve the infrastructure and logistics performance of landlocked developing countries of Latin America

Incluye bibliografía.

Exercício físico no diabete transgeracional de ratas: efeito na performance reprodutiva e nos hormônios sexuais

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Padrões de dominância manual, podálica e performance motora em gêmeos

O método de gêmeos envolve a análise diferencial de gêmeos monozigóticos (MZs) e dizigóticos (DZs) a fim de determinar a proporção de variância em um determinado traço atribuível a fatores genéticos e ambientais. Sendo geneticamente idênticos, os gêmeos MZs tendem a apresentar alto índice de concordância em vários atributos comportamentais, enquanto que, os DZs, compartilham 50 % da carga genética, manifestando um reduzido grau de concordância. Todavia, pesquisadores têm investigado possíveis mecanismos genéticos subjacentes do desenvolvimento cerebral para dominância manual e, não têm encontrado utilidade no método de gêmeos, pois, desde 1924, em todos os estudos de dominância manual em gêmeos, a taxa de discordância para o canhotismo e destrimanismo têm sido similares em MZs e DZs. Além disso, frequentemente gêmeos mostram taxa mais alta de prevalência para o canhotismo que os não gêmeos. O objetivo deste estudo foi investigar as possíveis diferenças entre gêmeos destros e canhotos (MZs e DZs combinados) e não gêmeos em variáveis fenótipicas específicas relacionadas à dominância manual, incluindo dominância podálica (chute de penalty), consistência de dominância manual, canhotismo familiar (CF+), postura manual e medidas de habilidades motoras em três testes : Batidas digitais, Tabuleiro de Annett e Pontilhar Pontinhos. Foram avaliados 286 gêmeos ( 255 destros, 34 canhotos) e, 251 não gêmeos (141 destros e 110 canhotos). A análise dos dados revelou o aumento de canhotismo no sexo masculino em três vezes mais do que no feminino. Além disto, destros e canhotos gêmeos foram mais mistos em suas dominâncias manuais e apontaram alta incidência de CF+ entre parentes de primeiro grau que não gêmeos canhotos e destros. Em concordância com estudos anteriores, a frequência de chute contralateral foi mais alta nos mistos do que nos que apresentaram consistência na dominância manual, especialmente entre os canhotos. No que diz respeito à habilidade manual, não foram encontradas diferenças significativas nos três testes de habilidade manual. Conforme as expectativas, destros e canhotos foram mais proficientes na manipulação do estímulo com suas mãos dominantes. Em todas as três medidas, em contraste com os destros, os canhotos (gêmeos e não gêmeos) apresentaram redução entre as assimetrias manuais. Por extensão, o aumento da prevalência de canhotismo entre gêmeos não poderia ser atribuída a influências patológicas, inversão de assimetria ou ordem de nascimento. É possível, levar em consideração, observando a diferença robusta em dominância manual mista que, o padrão de lateralização neuromotora, pode ser mais difusamente organizado nos hemisférios dos gêmeos que em não gêmeos, mas, esta sugestão requer evidência direta, pelo menos a partir de testes de neuro-imagem.

Performance Analysis of MODIS 500-m Spatial Resolution Products for Estimating Chlorophyll-a Concentrations in Oligo-to Meso-Trophic Waters Case Study: Itumbiara Reservoir, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)