Self-exciting hurdle models for terrorist activity

A predictive model of terrorist activity is developed by examining the daily number of terrorist attacks in Indonesia from 1994 through 2007. The dynamic model employs a shot noise process to explain the self-exciting nature of the terrorist activities. This estimates the probability of future attacks as a function of the times since the past attacks. In addition, the excess of nonattack days coupled with the presence of multiple coordinated attacks on the same day compelled the use of hurdle models to jointly model the probability of an attack day and corresponding number of attacks. A power law distribution with a shot noise driven parameter best modeled the number of attacks on an attack day. Interpretation of the model parameters is discussed and predictive performance of the models is evaluated.

Benthic shift in a Solomon Islands' lagoon : corals to cyanobacteria

In June 2011 a large phytoplankton bloom resulted in a catastrophic mortality event that affected a large coastal embayment in the Solomon Islands. This consisted of an area in excess of 20 km2 of reef and soft sandy habitats in Marovo Lagoon, the largest double barrier lagoon in the world. This embayment is home to over 1200 people leading largely subsistence lifestyles depending on the impacted reefs for majority of their protein needs. A toxic diatom (Psuedo-nitzchia spp.) and toxic dinoflagellate (Pyrodinium bahamense var. compressum) reached concentrations of millions of cells per litre. The senescent phytoplankton bloom led to complete de-oxygenation of the water column that reportedly caused substantial mortality of marine animal life in the immediate area within a rapid timeframe (24 h). Groups affected included holothurians, crabs and reef and pelagic fish species. Dolphins, reptiles and birds were also found dead within the area, indicating algal toxin accumulation in the food chain. Deep reefs and sediments, whilst initially unaffected, have now been blanketed in large cyanobacterial mats which have negatively impacted live coral cover especially within the deep reef zone (> 6 m depth). Reef recovery within the deep zone has been extremely slow and may indicate an alternative state for the system.

The pathophysiology of emphysema : considerations for critical care nursing practice

Emphysema is caused by exposure to cigarette smoking as well as alpha1-antitrypsin deficiency. It has been estimated to cost the National Health Service (NHS) in excess of £800 million per year in related health care costs. The challenges for Critical Care nurses are those associated with dynamic hyperinflation, Auto-PEEP, malnutrition and the weaning from invasive and non-invasive mechanical ventilation. In this paper we consider the impact of the pathophysiology of emphysema, its effects on other body systems as well as the impact acute exacerbations have when patients are admitted to the Intensive Care Unit.

A Satellite Selection Algorithm for Achieving High Reliability of Ambiguity Resolution with GPS and Beidou Constellations

Reliability of carrier phase ambiguity resolution (AR) of an integer least-squares (ILS) problem depends on ambiguity success rate (ASR), which in practice can be well approximated by the success probability of integer bootstrapping solutions. With the current GPS constellation, sufficiently high ASR of geometry-based model can only be achievable at certain percentage of time. As a result, high reliability of AR cannot be assured by the single constellation. In the event of dual constellations system (DCS), for example, GPS and Beidou, which provide more satellites in view, users can expect significant performance benefits such as AR reliability and high precision positioning solutions. Simply using all the satellites in view for AR and positioning is a straightforward solution, but does not necessarily lead to high reliability as it is hoped. The paper presents an alternative approach that selects a subset of the visible satellites to achieve a higher reliability performance of the AR solutions in a multi-GNSS environment, instead of using all the satellites. Traditionally, satellite selection algorithms are mostly based on the position dilution of precision (PDOP) in order to meet accuracy requirements. In this contribution, some reliability criteria are introduced for GNSS satellite selection, and a novel satellite selection algorithm for reliable ambiguity resolution (SARA) is developed. The SARA algorithm allows receivers to select a subset of satellites for achieving high ASR such as above 0.99. Numerical results from a simulated dual constellation cases show that with the SARA procedure, the percentages of ASR values in excess of 0.99 and the percentages of ratio-test values passing the threshold 3 are both higher than those directly using all satellites in view, particularly in the case of dual-constellation, the percentages of ASRs (>0.99) and ratio-test values (>3) could be as high as 98.0 and 98.5 % respectively, compared to 18.1 and 25.0 % without satellite selection process. It is also worth noting that the implementation of SARA is simple and the computation time is low, which can be applied in most real-time data processing applications.

Do prediction markets produce well-calibrated probability forecasts?

This article presents new theoretical and empirical evidence on the forecasting ability of prediction markets. We develop a model that predicts that the time until expiration of a prediction market should negatively affect the accuracy of prices as a forecasting tool in the direction of a ‘favourite/longshot bias’. That is, high-likelihood events are underpriced, and low-likelihood events are over-priced. We confirm this result using a large data set of prediction market transaction prices. Prediction markets are reasonably well calibrated when time to expiration is relatively short, but prices are significantly biased for events farther in the future. When time value of money is considered, the miscalibration can be exploited to earn excess returns only when the trader has a relatively low discount rate.

Preparative deracemization of unnatural amino acids

Unnatural amino acids are a growing class of intermediates required for pharmaceuticals, agrochemicals and other industrial products. However, no single method has proven sufficiently versatile to prepare these compounds broadly at scale. To address this need, we have developed a general chemoenzymatic process to prepare enantiomerically pure L- and D-amino acids in high yield by deracemization of racemic starting materials. This method involves the concerted action of an enantioselective oxidase biocatalyst and a non-selective chemical reducing agent to effect the stereoinversion of one enantiomer and can result in an enantiomeric excess of >99% from the starting racemate, and product yields of over 90%. This approach compares very favourably with resolution processes, which have a maximum single-pass yield of 50%. We have developed efficient methods to adapt the process towards new target compounds and to optimize key factors that influence process efficiency and offer competitive economics at scale.

Simultaneous magnetic resonance imaging and consolidation measurement of articular cartilage

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) offers the opportunity to study biological tissues and processes in a non-disruptive manner. The technique shows promise for the study of the load-bearing performance (consolidation) of articular cartilage and changes in articular cartilage accompanying osteoarthritis. Consolidation of articular cartilage involves the recording of two transient characteristics: the change over time of strain and the hydrostatic excess pore pressure (HEPP). MRI study of cartilage consolidation under mechanical load is limited by difficulties in measuring the HEPP in the presence of the strong magnetic fields associated with the MRI technique. Here we describe the use of MRI to image and characterize bovine articular cartilage deforming under load in an MRI compatible consolidometer while monitoring pressure with a Fabry-Perot interferometer-based fiber-optic pressure transducer.

Identification of phospholipids in human meibum by nano-electrospray ionisation tandem mass spectrometry

Meibum is believed to be the major source of tear film lipids, which are vital in the prevention of excess evaporation of the aqueous phase. The complete lipid composition of meibum has yet to be established. While earlier studies reported the presence of phospholipids in human meibum, recent mass spectrometric studies have not detected them. In this study we use electrospray ionisation tandem mass spectrometry to investigate the presence of phospholipids in meibum and provide comparison to the phospholipid profile of tears.Lipids were extracted from human meibum and tear samples using standard biphasic methods and analysed by nano-electrospray ionisation tandem mass spectrometry using targeted ion scans. A total of 35 choline-containing phospholipids were identified in meibum and the profile of these was similar to that observed in tears, suggesting tear lipids are derived from meibum. The results shown here highlight the need for a combination of optimised techniques to enable the identification of the large range of lipid classes in meibum. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Syntheses of NCN and NC3N from ionic precursors in the gas phase and an unusual rearrangement of neutral NC3N : A joint experimental and theoretical study

Neutral NCN is made in a mass spectrometer by charge stripping of NCN-., while neutral dicyanocarbene NCCCN can be formed by neutralization of either the corresponding anionic and cationic species, NCCCN-. and NCCCN+.. Theoretical calculations at the RCCSD(T)/aug-cc-pVTZ//B3LYP/6-31+G(d) level of theory indicate that the (3)Sigma (-)(g) State of NCCCN is 18 kcal mol(-1) more stable than the (1)A(1) state. While the majority of neutrals formed from either NCCCN-. or NCCCN+. correspond to NCCCN, a proportion of the neutral NCCCN molecules have sufficient excess energy to effect rearrangement, as evidenced by a loss of atomic carbon in the neutralization reionization (NR) spectra of either NCCCN+. and NCCCN-.. C-13 labeling studies indicate that loss of carbon occurs statistically following or accompanied by scrambling of all three carbon atoms. A theoretical study at the B3LYP/6-31+G(d)//B3LYP/6-31+G(d) level of theory indicates that C loss is a consequence of the rearrangement sequence NCCCN --> CNCCN --> CNCNC and that C scrambling occurs within singlet CNCCN via the intermediacy of a four-membered C-2v-symmetrical transition structure.

A theoretical study of C4B isomers. The interconversion of CCBCC and CCCCB via cyclic C4B

Theory suggests that CCBCC (1) will rearrange to planar cyclo-C4B (19) if the excess energy of 1 is greater than or equal to16.1 kcal mol(-1) [calculations at the CCSD(T)/aug-cc-pVTZ//B3LYP/6-31G(d) level of theory]. Cyclo-C4B lies only 1.1 kcal mol(-1) above CCBCC. The planar nature of symmetrical cyclo-C4B is attributed to multicentered bonding involving boron. If cyclo-C4B (19) has an excess energy of greater than or equal to24.4 kcal mol-1, it may ring open to form CCCCB (3).

Chemo-enzymatic synthesis of unnatural amino acids

A general chemo-enzymatic process has been developed to prepare enantiomerically pure L- and D-amino acids in high yield by deracemisation of racemic starting materials. The method has been developed from initial academic studies to be a robust, scalable industrial process. Unnatural amino acids, in high optical purity, are a rapidly growing class of intermediates required for pharmaceuticals, agrochemicals and other fine chemical applications. However, no single method has proven sufficiently adaptable to prepare these compounds generally at large scale. Our approach uses an enantioselective oxidase biocatalyst and a non-selective chemical reducing agent to effect the stereoinversion of one enantiomer and can result in an enantiomeric excess of > 99 % from a starting racemate, and product yields over 90 %. The current approach compares very favourably to resolution methods which have a maximum single pass yield of 50 %. Efficient methods have been developed to adapt the biocatalyst used in this process towards new target compounds and to optimise key factors which improve the process efficiency and offer competitive economics at scale.

Synthesis and characterization of titanium sol–gels in varied gravity

Two unique test systems were designed and built to allow the effects of varied gravity (high, normal, reduced) during synthesis of titanium sol–gels to be studied. A centrifuge capable of providing high gravity environments of up to 70 g for extended periods while applying a 100 mbar vacuum and a temperature of 40–50 °C to the reaction chambers was developed. The second system was used in the QUT Microgravity Drop Tower Facility also provided the same thermal and vacuum conditions used in the centrifuge, but was required to operate autonomously during free fall. Through the use of post synthesis instrumental characterization, it was found that increased gravity levels during synthesis, had the greatest effect on the final products. Samples produced in reduced and normal gravity appeared to form amorphous gels containing very small particles with moderate surface areas. Whereas crystalline anatase (TiO2), was found to form in samples synthesized above 5 g with significant increases in crystallinity, particle size and surface area observed when samples were produced at gravity levels up to 70 g. It is proposed that for samples produced in higher gravity, an increased concentration gradient of water is forms at the bottom of the reacting film due to forced convection. The particles formed in higher gravity diffuse downward toward this excess of water, which favors the condensation reaction of remaining sol–gel precursors with the particles promoting increased particle growth. Due to the removal of downward convection in reduced gravity, particle growth due to condensation reaction processes are physically hindered hydrolysis reactions favored instead. Another significant finding from this work was that anatase could be produced at relatively low temperatures of 40–50 °C instead of the conventional method of calcination above 450 °C solely through sol–gel synthesis at higher gravity levels.

Low-cost railway level crossings - breaking down the barriers

Level crossing risk continues to be a significant safety concern for the security of rail operations around the world. Over the last decade or so, a third of railway related fatalities occurred as a direct result of collisions between road and rail vehicles in Australia. Importantly, nearly half of these collisions occurred at railway level crossings with no active protection, such as flashing lights or boom barriers. Current practice is to upgrade level crossings that have no active protection. However, the total number of level crossings found across Australia exceed 23,500, and targeting the proportion of these that are considered high risk (e.g. public crossings with passive controls) would cost in excess of AU$3.25 billion based on equipment, installation and commissioning costs of warning devices that are currently type approved. Level crossing warning devices that are low-cost provide a potentially effective control for reducing risk; however, over the last decade, there have been significant barriers and legal issues in both Australia and the US that have foreshadowed their adoption. These devices are designed to have significantly lower lifecycle costs compared with traditional warning devices. They often make use of use of alternative technologies for train detection, wireless connectivity and solar energy supply. This paper describes the barriers that have been encountered for the adoption of these devices in Australia, including the challenges associated with: (1) determining requisite safety levels for such devices; (2) legal issues relating to duty of care obligations of railway operators; and (3) issues of Tort liability around the use of less than fail-safe equipment. This paper provides an overview of a comprehensive safety justification that was developed as part of a project funded by a collaborative rail research initiative established by the Australian government, and describes the conceptual framework and processes being used to justify its adoption. The paper provides a summary of key points from peer review and discusses prospective barriers that may need to be overcome for future adoption. A successful outcome from this process would result in the development of a guideline for decision-making, providing a precedence for adopting low-cost level crossing warning devices in other parts of the world. The framework described in this paper also provides relevance to the review and adoption of analogous technologies in rail and other safety critical industries.

Observations on the formation, growth and chemical composition of aerosols in an urban environment

The charge and chemical composition of ambient particles in an urban environment were determined using a Neutral Particle and Air Ion Spectrometer and an Aerodyne compact Time-Of-Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer. Particle formation and growth events were observed on 20 of the 36 days of sampling, with eight of these events classified as strong. During these events, peaks in the concentration of intermediate and large ions were followed by peaks in the concentration of ammonium and sulphate, which were not observed in the organic fraction. Comparison of days with and without particle formation events revealed that ammonium and sulphate were the dominant species on particle formation days while high concentrations of biomass burning OA inhibited particle growth. Analyses of the degree of particle neutralisation lead us to conclude that an excess of ammonium enabled particle formation and growth. In addition, the large ion concentration increased sharply during particle growth, suggesting that during nucleation the neutral gaseous species ammonia and sulphuric acid react to form ammonium and sulphate ions. Overall, we conclude that the mechanism of particle formation and growth involved ammonia and sulphuric acid, with limited input from organics.

CFD simulations of flow and heat transfer through the porous interface of a metal foam heat exchanger

This paper offers numerical modelling of a waste heat recovery system. A thin layer of metal foam is attached to a cold plate to absorb heat from hot gases leaving the system. The heat transferred from the exhaust gas is then transferred to a cold liquid flowing in a secondary loop. Two different foam PPI (Pores Per Inch) values are examined over a range of fluid velocities. Numerical results are then compared to both experimental data and theoretical results available in the literature. Challenges in getting the simulation results to match those of the experiments are addressed and discussed in detail. In particular, interface boundary conditions specified between a porous layer and a fluid layer are investigated. While physically one expects much lower fluid velocity in the pores compared to that of free flow, capturing this sharp gradient at the interface can add to the difficulties of numerical simulation. The existing models in the literature are modified by considering the pressure gradient inside and outside the foam. Comparisons against the numerical modelling are presented. Finally, based on experimentally-validated numerical results, thermo-hydraulic performance of foam heat exchangers as waste heat recovery units is discussed with the main goal of reducing the excess pressure drop and maximising the amount of heat that can be recovered from the hot gas stream.