An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Coastal and Human Settlements and Health Sectors in Guyana

This report analyses the agriculture, coastal and human settlements and health sectors in Guyana to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Guyana. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help bring the Caribbean sub-region closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining national and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated manifestations of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050 (agriculture and health sectors) and 2100 (coastal and human settlements sector). An exploration of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The study of the impact of climate change on the agriculture sector focused on three leading sub-sectors namely: sugar-cane, rice-paddy and fisheries. In estimating costs, the sugar sub-sector is projected to experience losses under A2 between US$ 144 million (at 4% discount rate) and US$300 million (1% rate); comparative statistics for rice are US$795 million and US$1577 million, respectively; while for fisheries, the results show that losses range from US$15 million (4% rate) and US$34 million (1% rate). In general, under the B2 scenarios, there are gains for sugar up to 2030 under all three discount rates while for rice the performance is somewhat better with gains realized under all three discount rates up to 2040. For fisheries, gains are forecasted under all three rates up to 2050, following marginal losses to 2020. In terms of the benefit-cost analysis conducted on selected adaptation measures under the A2 scenario, there were net benefits for all three commodities under all three discount rates. For the sugar-cane sub-sector these are: drainage and irrigation upgrade, purchase of new machinery for planting and harvesting, developing and replanting climate tolerant sugar-cane. The rice-paddy sub-sector will benefit from adaptive strategies, which include maintenance of drainage and irrigation systems, research and development, as well as education and training. Adaptation in the fisheries sub-sector must include measures such as, mangrove development and restoration and public education. The analysis of the coastal and human settlements sector has shown that based upon exposed assets and population, SLR can be classified as having the potential to create catastrophic conditions in Guyana. The main contributing factor is the concentration of socioeconomic infrastructure along the coastline in vulnerable areas.

An economic assessment of the impact of climate change on the health sector in Montserrat

Climate change has the potential to impact on global, regional, and national disease burdens both directly and indirectly. Projecting and valuing these health impacts is important not only in terms of assessing the overall impact of climate change on various parts of the world, but also in terms of ensuring that national and regional decision-making institutions have access to the data necessary to guide investment decisions and future policy design. This report contributes to the research focusing on projecting and valuing the impacts of climate change in the Caribbean by projecting the climate change-induced excess disease burden for two climate change scenarios in Montserrat for the period 2010 - 2050, and by estimating the monetary value associated with this excess disease burden. The diseases initially considered in this report are variety of vector and water-borne impacts and other miscellaneous conditions; specifically, malaria, dengue fever, gastroenteritis/diarrheal disease, schistosomiasis, leptospirosis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococcal meningitis, and cardio-respiratory diseases. Disease projections were based on derived baseline incidence and mortality rates, available dose-response relationships found in the published literature, climate change scenario population projections for the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES scenario families, and annual temperature and precipitation anomalies as projected by the downscaled ECHAM4 global climate model. Monetary valuation was based on a transfer value of statistical life approach with a modification for morbidity. Using discount rates of 1%, 2% and 4%, results show mean annual costs (morbidity and mortality) ranges of $0.61 million (in the B2 scenario, discounted at 4% annually) – $1 million (in the A2 scenario, discounted at 1% annually) for Montserrat. These costs are compared to adaptation cost scenarios involving increased direct spending on per capita health care. This comparison reveals a high benefit-cost ratio suggesting that moderate costs will deliver significant benefit in terms of avoided health burdens in the period 2010-2050. The methodology and results suggest that a focus on coordinated data collection and improved monitoring represents a potentially important no regrets adaptation strategy for Montserrat. Also the report highlights the need for this to be part of a coordinated regional response that avoids duplication in spending.

An assessment of the economic impact Of climate change on the health sector in Saint Lucia

Climate change has the potential to impact on global, regional, and national disease burdens both directly and indirectly. Projecting and valuing these health impacts is important not only in terms of assessing the overall impact of climate change on various parts of the world, but also of ensuring that national and regional decision-making institutions have access to the data necessary to guide investment decisions and future policy design. This report contributes to the research focusing on projecting and valuing the impacts of climate change in the Caribbean by projecting the climate change-induced excess disease burden for two climate change scenarios in Saint Lucia for the period 2010 - 2050, and by estimating the non-market, statistical life-based costs associated with this excess disease burden. The diseases initially considered in this report are a variety of vector and water-borne impacts and other miscellaneous conditions; specifically, malaria, dengue fever, gastroenteritis/diarrhoeal disease, schistosomiasis, leptospirosis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococcal meningitis, and cardio-respiratory diseases. Disease projections were based on derived baseline incidence and mortality rates, available dose-response relationships found in the published literature, climate change scenario population projections for the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES scenario families, and annual temperature and precipitation anomalies as projected by the downscaled ECHAM4 global climate model. Monetary valuation was based on a transfer value of statistical life approach with a modification for morbidity. Using discount rates of 1, 2, and 4%, results show mean annual costs (morbidity and mortality) ranges of $80.2 million (in the B2 scenario, discounted at 4% annually) -$182.4 million (in the A2 scenario, discounted at 1% annually) for St. Lucia.1 These costs are compared to adaptation cost scenarios involving direct and indirect interventions in health care. This comparison reveals a high benefit-cost ratio suggesting that moderate costs will deliver significant benefit in terms of avoided health costs from 2010-2050. In this context indirect interventions target sectors other than healthcare (e.g. water supply). It is also important to highlight that interventions can target both the supply of health infrastructure (including health status and disease monitoring), and households. It is suggested that a focus on coordinated data collection and improved monitoring represents a potentially important no regrets adaptation strategy for St Lucia. Also, the need for this to be part of a coordinated regional response that avoids duplication in spending is highlighted.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the health sector In Trinidad And Tobago

This research paper assesses the likely economic impact of climate change on the health sector in Trinidad and Tobago. The analysis, however, was limited to the economic impact of only a few climate-related diseases1 for which data were available. The approach utilized in this paper makes for easy extrapolation once the data on the other climate-related illnesses become available so that a full impact assessment can be carried out.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the health sector In Guyana

Climate change is considered to be the most pervasive and truly global of all issues affecting humanity. It poses a serious threat to the environment, as well as to economies and societies. Whilst it is clear that the impacts of climate change are varied, scientists have agreed that its effects will not be evenly distributed and that developing countries and small island developing States (SIDS) will be the first and hardest hit. Small island developing States, many of whom have fewer resources to adapt socially, technologically and financially to climate change, are considered to be the most vulnerable to the potential impacts of climate change. An economic analysis of climate change can provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help move the Caribbean closer to solving the problems associated with climate change, and to attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Climate change is expected to affect the health of populations. In fact, the World Health Organization (WHO), in Protecting Health from Climate Change (2008), states that the continuation of current patterns of fossil fuel use, development and population growth will lead to ongoing climate change, with serious effects on the environment and, consequently, on human lives and health. Assessing the economics of potential health impacts of climate variability and change requires an understanding of both the vulnerability of a population and its capacity to respond to new conditions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines vulnerability as the degree to which individuals and systems are susceptible to, or unable to cope with, the adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes (WHO and others, 2003). The United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), in collaboration with the Caribbean Community Centre for Climate Change (CCCCC), is pursuing a regional project to ―Review the Economics of Climate Change in the Caribbean‖ (RECCC). The purpose of the project is to assess the likely economic impacts of climate change on key sectors of Caribbean economies, through applying robust simulation modelling analyses under various socio-economic scenarios and carbon emission trajectories for the next 40 years. The findings are expected to stimulate local and national governments, regional institutions, the private sector and civil society to craft and implement policies, cost-effective options and efficient choices to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the health sector In Jamaica

Climate change is a naturally occurring phenomenon in which the earth‘s climate goes through cycles of warming and cooling; these changes usually take place incrementally over millennia. Over the past century, there has been an anomalous increase in global temperature, giving rise to accelerated climate change. It is widely accepted that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as industries have contributed significantly to the increase in global temperatures. The existence and survival of all living organisms is predicated on the ability of the environment in which they live not only to provide conditions for their basic needs but also conditions suitable for growth and reproduction. Unabated climate change threatens the existence of biophysical and ecological systems on a planetary scale. The present study aims to examine the economic impact of climate change on health in Jamaica over the period 2011-2050. To this end, three disease conditions with known climate sensitivity and importance to Jamaican public health were modelled. These were: dengue fever, leptospirosis and gastroenteritis in children under age 5. Historical prevalence data on these diseases were obtained from the Ministry of Health Jamaica, the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre, the Climate Studies Group Mona, University of the West Indies Mona campus, and the Meteorological Service of Jamaica. Data obtained spanned a twelve-year period of 1995-2007. Monthly data were obtained for dengue and gastroenteritis, while for leptospirosis, the annual number of cases for 1995-2005 was utilized. The two SRES emission scenarios chosen were A2 and B2 using the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM) global climate model to predict climate variables for these scenarios. A business as usual (BAU) scenario was developed using historical disease data for the period 2000-2009 (dengue fever and gastroenteritis) and 1995-2005 (leptospirosis) as the reference decades for the respective diseases. The BAU scenario examined the occurrence of the diseases in the absence of climate change. It assumed that the disease trend would remain unchanged over the projected period and the number of cases of disease for each decade would be the same as the reference decade. The model used in the present study utilized predictive empirical statistical modelling to extrapolate the climate/disease relationship in time, to estimate the number of climate change-related cases under future climate change scenarios. The study used a Poisson regression model that considered seasonality and lag effects to determine the best-fit model in relation to the diseases under consideration. Zhang and others (2008), in their review of climate change and the transmission of vector-borne diseases, found that: ―Besides climatic variables, few of them have included other factors that can affect the transmission of vector-borne disease….‖ (Zhang 2008) Water, sanitation and health expenditure are key determinants of health. In the draft of the second communication to IPCC, Jamaica noted the vulnerability of public health to climate change, including sanitation and access to water (MSJ/UNDP, 2009). Sanitation, which in its broadest context includes the removal of waste (excreta, solid, or other hazardous waste), is a predictor of vector-borne diseases (e.g. dengue fever), diarrhoeal diseases (such as gastroenteritis) and zoonoses (such as leptospirosis). In conceptualizing the model, an attempt was made to include non-climate predictors of these climate-sensitive diseases. The importance of sanitation and water access to the control of dengue, gastroenteritis and leptospirosis were included in the Poisson regression model. The Poisson regression model obtained was then used to predict the number of disease cases into the future (2011-2050) for each emission scenario. After projecting the number of cases, the cost associated with each scenario was calculated using four cost components. 1. Treatment cost morbidity estimate. The treatment cost for the number of cases was calculated using reference values found in the literature for each condition. The figures were derived from studies of the cost of treatment and represent ambulatory and non-fatal hospitalized care for dengue fever and gastroenteritis. Due to the paucity of published literature on the health care cost associated with leptospirosis, only the cost of diagnosis and antibiotic therapy were included in the calculation. 2. Mortality estimates. Mortality estimates are recorded as case fatality rates. Where local data were available, these were utilized. Where these were unavailable, appropriate reference values from the literature were used. 3. Productivity loss. Productivity loss was calculated using a human capital approach, by multiplying the expected number of productive days lost by the caregiver and/or the infected person, by GDP per capita per day (US$ 14) at 2008 GDP using 2008 US$ exchange rates. 4. No-option cost. The no-option cost refers to adaptation strategies for the control of dengue fever which are ongoing and already a part of the core functions of the Vector Control Division of the Ministry of Health, Jamaica. An estimated US$ 2.1 million is utilized each year in conducting activities to prevent the post-hurricane spread of vector borne diseases and diarrhoea. The cost includes public education, fogging, laboratory support, larvicidal activities and surveillance. This no-option cost was converted to per capita estimates, using population estimates for Jamaica up to 2050 obtained from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN, 2006) and the assumption of one expected major hurricane per decade. During the decade 2000-2009, Jamaica had an average inflation of 10.4% (CIA Fact book, last updated May 2011). This average decadal inflation rate was applied to the no-option cost, which was inflated by 10% for each successive decade to adjust for changes in inflation over time.

Rapid Assessment of Seed Removal and Frugivore Activity as a Tool for Monitoring the Health Status of Tropical Forests

Ecological processes in tropical forests are being affected at unprecedented rates by human activities. Yet, the continuity of ecological functions like seed dispersal is crucial for forest regeneration. It thus becomes increasingly urgent to be able to rapidly assess the health status of these processes in order to take appropriate management measures. We tested a method to rapidly evaluate seed removal rates on two animal-dispersed tree species, Virola kwatae and V.michelii (Myristicaceae), at three sites in French Guiana with increasing levels of anthropogenic disturbance. We counted fallen fruits, fruit valves, and seeds of each focal fruiting tree in a single 1m2 quadrat, and calculated two indices: the proportion of seeds removed and the proportion of fruits opened by mammals. They both provide an indirect and rapid assessment of frugivore activity. Our results showed a significant decrease in the proportion of removed seeds (16%) and fruits opened (19%) at the most impacted site in comparison with the other two sites (79% for seeds, 60% and 35% for fruits). This testifies to an increased impoverishment of the primate and toucan communities at the disturbed sites. This standardized protocol provides fast information about the health status of the community of seed dispersers and predators and of their seed removal services. It is time- and cost-effective and is not species-specific, allowing comparisons among sites or over time. We suggest using it with the pantropical Myristicaceae and any other capsule-producing family to rapidly assess the health status of seed removal processes across the tropics.

Assessment of health-related quality of life and related factors in patients with chronic liver disease

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

NURSES AND THE ASSESSMENT IN HEALTH SYSTEM MANAGEMENT

The objective of this study was to undertake a critical reflection regarding assessment as a managerial tool that promotes the inclusion of nurses in the health system management process. Nurses, because of their education and training, which encompasses knowledge in both the clinical and managerial fields and is centered on care, have the potential to assume a differentiated attitude in management, making decisions and proposing health policies. Nevertheless, it is necessary to first create and consolidate an expressive inclusion in decisive levels of management. Assessment is a component of management, the results of which may contribute to making decisions that are more objective and allow for improving healthcare interventions and reorganizing health practice within a political, economic, social and professional context; it is also an area for the application of knowledge that has the potential to change the current panorama of including nurses in management.

Short Assessment of Health Literacy for Portuguese-Speaking Adults

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a short health literacy assessment tool for Portuguese-speaking adults. METHODS: The Short Assessment of Health Literacy for Portuguese-speaking Adults is an assessment tool which consists of 50 items that assess an individual's ability to correctly pronounce and understand common medical terms. We evaluated the instrument's psychometric properties in a convenience sample of 226 Brazilian older adults. Construct validity was assessed by correlating the tool scores with years of schooling, self-reported literacy, and global cognitive functioning. Discrimination validity was assessed by testing the tool's accuracy in detecting inadequate health literacy, defined as failure to fully understand standard medical prescriptions. RESULTS: Moderate to high correlations were found in the assessment of construct validity (Spearman's coefficients ranging from 0.63 to 0.76). The instrument showed adequate internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha=0.93) and adequate test-retest reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient=0.95). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for detection of inadequate health literacy was 0.82. A version consisting of 18 items was tested and showed similar psychometric properties. CONCLUSIONS: The instrument developed showed good validity and reliability in a sample of Brazilian older adults. It can be used in research and clinical settings for screening inadequate health literacy.

Assessment and management of oral health in liver transplant candidates

Liver transplantation has become a standard treatment for end-stage liver disease and the number of recipients has grown rapidly in the last few years. Dental care during pre-transplant workup is important to reduce potential sources of infection in the drug-induced immunosuppression phase of liver transplantation. Objectives: The objectives of this study were to document the prevalence of oral abnormalities in patients on a liver transplant waiting list presenting to an urban dental school clinic, discuss the appropriate dental treatment according their systemic conditions and compare their oral manifestations with those of healthy individuals. Material and Methods: A pilot study was conducted involving 16 end-stage liver disease individuals (study group- SG) attending the Special Care Dentistry Center of the University of So Paulo and 16 control individuals (control group- CG) with no liver diseases, receiving dental care at the Dental School of the University of So Paulo. These individuals were assessed for their dental status (presence of oral disease or abnormalities), coagulation status, and dental treatment indications. Results: The patients from SG exhibited a greater incidence of oral manifestations compared with CG (p=0.0327) and were diagnosed with at least one oral disease or condition that required treatment. Coagulation abnormalities reflecting an increased risk of bleeding were found in 93.75% of the patients. However, no bleeding complications occurred after dental treatment. Conclusions: The patients with chronic liver diseases evaluated in this study exhibited a higher incidence of oral manifestations compared with the control group and had at least one oral disease or abnormality which required dental treatment prior to liver transplantation. Careful oral examination and evaluation of the patient, including laboratory tests, will ensure correct oral preparation and control of oral disease prior to liver transplantation.

Assessment of integration of the Leprosy Program into primary health care in Aracaju, State of Sergipe, Brazil

Introduction: The aim of this study was to assess the epidemiological and operational characteristics of the Leprosy Program before and after its integration into the Primary Healthcare Services of the municipality of Aracaju-Sergipe, Brazil. Methods: Data were drawn from the national database. The study periods were divided into preintegration (1996-2000) and postintegration (2001-2007). Annual rates of epidemiological detection were calculated. Frequency data on clinico-epidemiological variables of cases detected and treated for the two periods were compared using the Chi-squared (chi(2)) test adopting a 5% level of significance. Results: Rates of detection overall, and in subjects younger than 15 years, were greater for the postintegration period and were higher than rates recorded for Brazil as a whole during the same periods. A total of 780 and 1,469 cases were registered during the preintegration and postintegration periods, respectively. Observations for the postintegration period were as follows: I) a higher proportion of cases with disability grade assessed at diagnosis, with increase of 60.9% to 78.8% (p < 0.001), and at end of treatment, from 41.4% to 44.4% (p < 0.023); II) an increase in proportion of cases detected by contact examination, from 2.1% to 4.1% (p < 0.001); and III) a lower level of treatment default with a decrease from 5.64 to 3.35 (p < 0.008). Only 34% of cases registered from 2001 to 2007 were examined. Conclusions: The shift observed in rates of detection overall, and in subjects younger than 15 years, during the postintegration period indicate an increased level of health care access. The fall in number of patients abandoning treatment indicates greater adherence to treatment. However, previous shortcomings in key actions, pivotal to attaining the outcomes and impact envisaged for the program, persisted in the postintegration period.

Short Assessment of Health Literacy for Portuguese-speaking Adults

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a short health literacy assessment tool for Portuguese-speaking adults. METHODS: The Short Assessment of Health Literacy for Portuguese-speaking Adults is an assessment tool which consists of 50 items that assess an individual's ability to correctly pronounce and understand common medical terms. We evaluated the instrument's psychometric properties in a convenience sample of 226 Brazilian older adults. Construct validity was assessed by correlating the tool scores with years of schooling, self-reported literacy, and global cognitive functioning. Discrimination validity was assessed by testing the tool's accuracy in detecting inadequate health literacy, defined as failure to fully understand standard medical prescriptions. RESULTS: Moderate to high correlations were found in the assessment of construct validity (Spearman's coefficients ranging from 0.63 to 0.76). The instrument showed adequate internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha=0.93) and adequate test-retest reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient=0.95). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for detection of inadequate health literacy was 0.82. A version consisting of 18 items was tested and showed similar psychometric properties. CONCLUSIONS: The instrument developed showed good validity and reliability in a sample of Brazilian older adults. It can be used in research and clinical settings for screening inadequate health literacy.

Assessment of integration of the leprosy program into primary health care in Aracaju, state of Sergipe, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to assess the epidemiological and operational characteristics of the Leprosy Program before and after its integration into the Primary healthcare Services of the municipality of Aracaju-Sergipe, Brazil. METHODS: Data were drawn from the national database. The study periods were divided into preintegration (1996-2000) and postintegration (2001-2007). Annual rates of epidemiological detection were calculated. Frequency data on clinico-epidemiological variables of cases detected and treated for the two periods were compared using the Chi-squared (χ2) test adopting a 5% level of significance. RESULTS: Rates of detection overall, and in subjects younger than 15 years, were greater for the postintegration period and were higher than rates recorded for Brazil as a whole during the same periods. A total of 780 and 1,469 cases were registered during the preintegration and postintegration periods, respectively. Observations for the postintegration period were as follows: I) a higher proportion of cases with disability grade assessed at diagnosis, with increase of 60.9% to 78.8% (p < 0.001), and at end of treatment, from 41.4% to 44.4% (p < 0.023); II) an increase in proportion of cases detected by contact examination, from 2.1% to 4.1% (p < 0.001); and III) a lower level of treatment default with a decrease from 5.64 to 3.35 (p < 0.008). Only 34% of cases registered from 2001 to 2007 were examined. CONCLUSIONS: The shift observed in rates of detection overall, and in subjects younger than 15 years, during the postintegration period indicate an increased level of health care access. The fall in number of patients abandoning treatment indicates greater adherence to treatment. However, previous shortcomings in key actions, pivotal to attaining the outcomes and impact envisaged for the program, persisted in the postintegration period.