What do we gain from simplicity versus complexity in species distribution models?

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to explain and predict species ranges and environmental niches. They are most commonly constructed by inferring species' occurrence-environment relationships using statistical and machine-learning methods. The variety of methods that can be used to construct SDMs (e.g. generalized linear/additive models, tree-based models, maximum entropy, etc.), and the variety of ways that such models can be implemented, permits substantial flexibility in SDM complexity. Building models with an appropriate amount of complexity for the study objectives is critical for robust inference. We characterize complexity as the shape of the inferred occurrence-environment relationships and the number of parameters used to describe them, and search for insights into whether additional complexity is informative or superfluous. By building 'under fit' models, having insufficient flexibility to describe observed occurrence-environment relationships, we risk misunderstanding the factors shaping species distributions. By building 'over fit' models, with excessive flexibility, we risk inadvertently ascribing pattern to noise or building opaque models. However, model selection can be challenging, especially when comparing models constructed under different modeling approaches. Here we argue for a more pragmatic approach: researchers should constrain the complexity of their models based on study objective, attributes of the data, and an understanding of how these interact with the underlying biological processes. We discuss guidelines for balancing under fitting with over fitting and consequently how complexity affects decisions made during model building. Although some generalities are possible, our discussion reflects differences in opinions that favor simpler versus more complex models. We conclude that combining insights from both simple and complex SDM building approaches best advances our knowledge of current and future species ranges.

Strong isomorphism reductions in complexity theory

We give the first systematic study of strong isomorphism reductions, a notion of reduction more appropriate than polynomial time reduction when, for example, comparing the computational complexity of the isomorphim problem for different classes of structures. We show that the partial ordering of its degrees is quite rich. We analyze its relationship to a further type of reduction between classes of structures based on purely comparing for every n the number of nonisomorphic structures of cardinality at most n in both classes. Furthermore, in a more general setting we address the question of the existence of a maximal element in the partial ordering of the degrees.

Re-opening the black box in societal metabolism: the application of MuSIASEM to water

In this paper we address the complexity of the analysis of water use in relation to the issue of sustainability. In fact, the flows of water in our planet represent a complex reality which can be studied using many different perceptions and narratives referring to different scales and dimensions of analysis. For this reason, a quantitative analysis of water use has to be based on analytical methods that are semantically open: they must be able to define what we mean with the term “water” when crossing different scales of analysis. We propose here a definition of water as a resource that deal with the many services it provides to humans and ecosystems. WE argue that water can fulfil so many of them since the element has many characteristics that allow for the resource to be labelled with different attributes, depending on the end use –such as drinkable. Since the services for humans and the functions for ecosystems associated with water flows are defined on different scales but still interconnected it is necessary to organize our assessment of water use across different hierarchical levels. In order to do so we define how to approach the study of water use in the Societal Metabolism, by proposing the Water Metabolism, tganized in three levels: societal level, ecosystem level and global level. The possible end uses we distinguish for the society are: personal/physiological use, household use, economic use. Organizing the study of “water use” across all these levels increases the usefulness of the quantitative analysis and the possibilities of finding relevant and comparable results. To achieve this result, we adapted a method developed to deal with multi-level, multi-scale analysis - the Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) approach - to the analysis of water metabolism. In this paper, we discuss the peculiar analytical identity that “water” shows within multi-scale metabolic studies: water represents a flow-element when considering the metabolism of social systems (at a small scale, when describing the water metabolism inside the society) and a fund-element when considering the metabolism o ecosystems (at a larger scale when describing the water metabolism outside the society). The theoretical analysis is illustrated using two case which characterize the metabolic patterns regarding water use of a productive system in Catalonia and a water management policy in Andarax River Basin in Andalusia.

Immune Response of Cattle Infected with African Trypanosomes

Trypanosomosis is the most economically important disease constraint to livestock productivity in sub-Saharan Africa and has significant negative impact in other parts of the world. Livestock are an integral component of farming systems and thus contribute significantly to food and economic security in developing countries. Current methods of control for trypanosomosis are inadequate to prevent the enormous socioeconomic losses resulting from this disease. A vaccine has been viewed as the most desirable control option. However, the complexity of the parasite's antigenic repertoire made development of a vaccine based on the variable surface glycoprotein coat unlikely. As a result, research is now focused on identifying invariant trypanosome components as potential targets for interrupting infection or infection-mediated disease. Immunosuppression appears to be a nearly universal feature of infection with African trypanosomes and thus may represent an essential element of the host-parasite relationship, possibly by reducing the host's ability to mount a protective immune response. Antibody, T cell and macrophage/monocyte responses of infected cattle are depressed in both trypanosusceptible and trypanotolerant breeds of cattle. This review describes the specific T cell and monocyte/macrophage functions that are altered in trypanosome-infected cattle and compares these disorders with those that have been described in the murine model of trypanosomosis. The identification of parasite factors that induce immunosuppression and the mechanisms that mediate depressed immune responses might suggest novel disease intervention strategies.

Ultraschalldiagnostik des nichttraumatischen akuten Abdomens: die Ursachen ausserhalb des Gastro-Intestinaltraktes [Ultrasound of non traumatic acute abdomen: extra-digestive causes]

In recent years, management of abdominal pain in emergency care units (ECU) has undergone a radical change. Chronic work overload of ECU and increase in severity and complexity of cases required an optimal medical imaging method, such as ultrasound, to establish an accurate diagnosis as quickly as possible. A great variety of causes may cause acute abdominal pain and the role of sonography is to accurately distinguish between these aetiologies. For the application of sonography, perhaps more so than with other imaging methods, a perfect knowledge of sonographical characteristics and technical possibilities is essential to achieve an optimal answer. The purpose of this review is to present and discuss the sonographic characteristics of extra-digestive causes of acute abdominal pain such as splenic infarction, thoracic pathologies, urinary and gynaecologic diseases or retroperitoneal pathologies.

Age-specific incidence of all neoplasms after colorectal cancer.

PURPOSE: Patients diagnosed with a specific neoplasm tend to have a subsequent excess risk of the same neoplasm. The age incidence of a second neoplasm at the same site is approximately constant with age, and consequently the relative risk is greater at younger age. It is unclear whether such a line of reasoning can be extended from a specific neoplasm to the incidence of all neoplasms in subjects diagnosed with a defined neoplasm. METHODS: We considered the age-specific incidence of all non-hormone-related epithelial neoplasms after a first primary colorectal cancer (n = 9542) in the Vaud Cancer Registry data set. RESULTS: In subjects with a previous colorectal cancer, the incidence rate of all other epithelial non-hormone-related cancers was stable around 800 per 100,000 between age 30 and 60 years, and rose only about twofold to reach 1685 at age 70 to 79 years and 1826 per 100,000 at age 80 years or older. After excluding synchronous cancers, the rise was only about 1.5-fold, that is, from about 700 to 1000. In the general population, the incidence rate of all epithelial non-hormone-related cancers was 29 per 100,000 at age 30 to 39 years, and rose 30-fold to 883 per 100,000 at age 70 to 79 years. Excluding colorectal cancers, the rise of all non-hormone-related cancers was from 360 per 100,000 at age 40 to 49 years to 940 at age 70 to 79 years after colorectal cancer, and from 90 to 636 per 100,000 in the general population (i.e., 2.6- vs. 7.1-fold). CONCLUSIONS: The rise of incidence with age of all epithelial non-hormone-related second cancers after colorectal cancer is much smaller than in the general population. This can possibly be related to the occurrence of a single mutational event in a population of susceptible individuals, although alternative models are plausible within the complexity of the process of carcinogenesis.

In vitro neuroendocrine effects of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) in the AhR-expressing hypothalamic rat GnV-3 cell line.

The aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) is involved in a wide variety of biological and toxicological responses, including neuroendocrine signaling. Due to the complexity of neuroendocrine pathways in e.g. the hypothalamus and pituitary, there are limited in vitro models available despite the strong demand for such systems to study and predict neuroendocrine effects of chemicals. In this study, the applicability of the AhR-expressing rat hypothalamic GnV-3 cell line was investigated as a novel model to screen for neuroendocrine effects of AhR ligands using 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) as reference compound. The qRT-PCR analyses demonstrated the presence of several sets of neurotransmitter receptors in the GnV-3 cells. TCDD (10nM) altered neurotransmitter signaling by up-regulation of glutamate (Grik2), gamma-amino butyric acid (Gabra2) and serotonin (Ht2C) receptor mRNA levels. However, no significant changes in basal and serotonin-evoked intracellular Ca(2+) concentration ([Ca(2+)]i) or serotonin release were observed. On the other hand, TCDD de-regulated period circadian protein homolog 1 (Per1) and gonadotropin releasing hormone (Gnrh) mRNA levels within a 24-h time period. Both Per1 and Gnrh genes displayed a similar mRNA expression pattern in GnV-3 cells. Moreover, the involvement of AhR in TCDD-induced alteration of Neuropeptide Y (Npy) gene expression was found and confirmed by using siRNA targeted against Ahr in GnV-3 cells. Overall, the combined results demonstrate that GnV-3 cells may be a suitable model to predict some mechanisms of action and effects of AhR ligands in the hypothalamus.

Validation of the post-delivery perceived stress inventory

This article presents the post-delivery perceived stress inventory (PDPSI) and its psychometric properties. This inventory is unique in that it links the measurement of perceived stress to events experienced during and after delivery. A total of 235 French-speaking, primiparous mothers completed the PDPSI two days after their delivery. To evaluate the predictive validity of the PDPSI on anxiety and depression, participants also completed the EPDS and the STAI two days and six weeks postpartum. The exploratory analysis revealed a 16-item structure divided into five factors: F1: relationship with the child; F2: delivery; F3: fatigue after delivery; F4: breastfeeding; and F5: relationship with the caregivers. The PDPSI demonstrated good internal consistency. Moreover, confirmatory factor analysis produced excellent indices, indicating that the complexity of the PDPSI was taken into account and its fit to the sample. The discriminant analysis showed that the PDPSI was not sensitive to specific changes in the sample making the inventory generalizable to other populations. Predictive validity showed that the scale significantly predicted depression and anxiety in the early postpartum period as well as anxiety six weeks postpartum. Overall, the PDPSI showed excellent psychometric qualities, making it a useful tool for future research-evaluating interventions related to perceived stress during the postpartum period.

Genetic diversity of Colombian sylvatic Trypanosoma cruzi isolates revealed by the ribosomal DNA

American trypanosomiasis is a common zoonosis in Colombia and Trypanosoma cruzi presents a wide distribution throughout the country. Although some studies based on enzyme electrophoresis profiles have described the population structure of the parasite, very few molecular analyses of genotipic markers have been conducted using Colombian strains. In this study, we amplified the non-transcribed spacer of the mini-gene by PCR, typing the isolates as T. cruzi I, T. cruzi zymodeme 3 or T. rangeli. In addition, the internal transcribed spacers of the ribosomal gene concomitant with the 5.8S rDNA were amplified and submitted to restriction fragment polymorphism analysis. The profiles were analyzed by a numerical methodology generating a phenetic dendrogram that shows heterogeneity among the T. cruzi isolates. This finding suggests a relationship between the complexity of the sylvatic transmission cycle in Colombia and the diversity of the sylvan parasites.

Computational quest for understanding the role of astrocyte signaling in synaptic transmission and plasticity.

The complexity of the signaling network that underlies astrocyte-synapse interactions may seem discouraging when tackled from a theoretical perspective. Computational modeling is challenged by the fact that many details remain hitherto unknown and conventional approaches to describe synaptic function are unsuitable to explain experimental observations when astrocytic signaling is taken into account. Supported by experimental evidence is the possibility that astrocytes perform genuine information processing by means of their calcium signaling and are players in the physiological setting of the basal tone of synaptic transmission. Here we consider the plausibility of this scenario from a theoretical perspective, focusing on the modulation of synaptic release probability by the astrocyte and its implications on synaptic plasticity. The analysis of the signaling pathways underlying such modulation refines our notion of tripartite synapse and has profound implications on our understanding of brain function.

Plasmodium falciparum merozoite surface protein 2: epitope mapping and fine specificity of human antibody response against non-polymorphic domains.

BACKGROUND: Two long synthetic peptides representing the dimorphic and constant C-terminal domains of the two allelic families of Plasmodium falciparum merozoite surface proteins 2 are considered promising malaria vaccine candidates. The aim of the current study is to characterize the immune response (epitope mapping) in naturally exposed individuals and relate immune responses to the risk of clinical malaria. METHODS: To optimize their construction, the fine specificity of human serum antibodies from donors of different age, sex and living in four distinct endemic regions was determined in ELISA by using overlapping 20 mer peptides covering the two domains. Immune purified antibodies were used in Western blot and immunofluorescence assay to recognize native parasite derivate proteins. RESULTS: Immunodominant epitopes were characterized, and their distribution was similar irrespective of geographic origin, age group and gender. Acquisition of a 3D7 family and constant region-specific immune response and antibody avidity maturation occur early in life while a longer period is needed for the corresponding FC27 family response. In addition, the antibody response to individual epitopes within the 3D7 family-specific region contributes to protection from malaria infection with different statistical weight. It is also illustrated that affinity-purified antibodies against the dimorphic or constant regions recognized homologous and heterologous parasites in immunofluorescence and homologous and heterologous MSP2 and other polypeptides in Western blot. CONCLUSION: Data from this current study may contribute to a development of MSP2 vaccine candidates based on conserved and dimorphic regions thus bypassing the complexity of vaccine development related to the polymorphism of full-length MSP2.

Towards the enhancement of foodborne disease surveillance: A consultation paper

Foodborne disease is a source of increasing morbidity and fatality in the island of Ireland. It also has an economic impact. As a result of the continuing concern about food safety and its implications on an all-island basis, the North/South Ministerial Council established the Food Safety Promotion Board (FSPB) on December 2nd 1999. At its Board meeting in February 2000, the FSPB considered the issue of microbiological surveillance and, in noting the complexity of the issues, recommended that the key players in foodborne disease surveillance in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland consider ways for the improvement of microbiological surveillance on an all-island basis. To assist in the development of a surveillance strategy for the FSPB, a Functional Meeting Group on Disease Surveillance was convened. The group compiled this consultation paper. A series of recommendations are made in the consultation paper and the key recommendations are summarised below.

Assessing the Relationship between the Baseline Value of a Continuous Variable and Subsequent Change over Time

Analyzing the relationship between the baseline value and subsequent change of a continuous variable is a frequent matter of inquiry in cohort studies. These analyses are surprisingly complex, particularly if only two waves of data are available. It is unclear for non-biostatisticians where the complexity of this analysis lies and which statistical method is adequate.With the help of simulated longitudinal data of body mass index in children,we review statistical methods for the analysis of the association between the baseline value and subsequent change, assuming linear growth with time. Key issues in such analyses are mathematical coupling, measurement error, variability of change between individuals, and regression to the mean. Ideally, it is better to rely on multiple repeated measurements at different times and a linear random effects model is a standard approach if more than two waves of data are available. If only two waves of data are available, our simulations show that Blomqvist's method - which consists in adjusting for measurement error variance the estimated regression coefficient of observed change on baseline value - provides accurate estimates. The adequacy of the methods to assess the relationship between the baseline value and subsequent change depends on the number of data waves, the availability of information on measurement error, and the variability of change between individuals.

The role of CTCFL/BORIS in Meiosis

The complexity of mammalian genome organization demands a complex interplay of DNA and proteins to orchestrate proper gene regulation. CTCF, a highly conserved, ubiquitously expressed protein has been postulated as a primary organizer of genome architecture because of its roles in transcriptional activation/repression, insulation and imprinting. Diverse regulatory functions are exerted through genome wide binding via a central eleven zinc finger DNA binding domain and an array of diverse protein-protein interactions through N- and C- terminal domains. CTCFL has been identified as a paralog of CTCF expressed only in spermatogenic cells of the testis. CTCF and CTCFL have a highly homologous DNA-binding domain, while the flanking amino acid sequences exhibit no significant similarity. Genome- wide mapping of CTCF binding sites has been carried out in many cell types, but no data exist for CTCFL apart from a few identified loci. The lack of high quality antibodies prompted us to generate an endogenously flag-tagged CTCFL mouse model using BAC recombination. IHC staining using anti-flag antibodies confirmed CTCFL localization to type Β spermatogonia and preleptotene spermatocytes and a mutually exclusive pattern of expression with CTCF. ChIP followed by high-throughput sequencing identified 10,382 binding sites showing 70% overlap but representing only 20% of CTCF sites. Consensus sequence analysis identified a significantly longer binding motif with prominently less ambiguity of base calling at every position. The significant difference between CTCF and CTCFL genomic binding patterns proposes that their binding to DNA is differentially regulated. Analysis of CTCFL binding to methylated regions on a genome wide scale identified approximately 1,000 loci. Methylation-independent binding of CTCFL might be at least one of the mechanisms that ensures distinct binding patterns of CTCF and CTCFL since CTCF binding is methylation- sensitive. Co-localization of CTCF with cohesin has been well established and analysis of CTCFL and SMC3 overlap identified around 3,300 binding sites from which two related but distinct consensus sequence motifs were derived. Because virtually all data for cohesin binding originate from mitotically proliferating cells, the anticipated overlap is expected to be considerably higher in meiotic cells. Meiosis-specific cohesin subunit Rec8 is specific for spermatocytes and 6 out of the 12 identified binding sites are also bound by CTCFL. In conclusion, this was the first genome-wide mapping of CTCFL binding sites in spermatocytes, the only cell type where CTCF is not expressed. CTCFL has a unique binding site repertoire distinct from CTCF, binds to methylated sequences and shows a significant overlap with cohesin binding sites. Future efforts will be oriented towards deciphering the role CTCFL plays in conversion of chromatin structure and function from mitotic to meiotic chromosomes. - La complexité de l'organisation du génome des mammifères exige une interaction particulière entre ADN et protéines pour orchestrer une régulation appropriée de l'expression des gènes. CTCFL, une protéine ubiquitaire très conservée, serait le principal organisateur de l'architecture du génome de par son rôle dans l'activation / la répression de la transcription, la protection et la localisation des gènes. Diverses régulations sont opérées, d'une part au travers d'interactions à différents endroits du génome par le biais d'un domaine protéique central de liaison à l'ADN à onze doigts de zinc, et d'autre part par des interactions protéine-protéine variées au niveau de leur domaine N- et C-terminal. CTCFL a été identifié comme un paralogue de CTCF exprimé uniquement dans les cellules spermatiques du testicule. CTCFL et CTCF ont un domaine de liaison à l'ADN très homologue, tandis que les séquences d'acides aminés situées de part et d'autre de ce domaine ne présentent aucune similitude. Une cartographie générale des sites de liaison au CTCF a été réalisée pour de nombreux types cellulaires, mais il n'existe aucune donnée pour CTCFL à l'exception de l'identification de quelques loci. L'absence d'anticorps de bonne qualité nous a conduit à générer un modèle murin portant un CTCFL endogène taggué grâce à un procédé de recombinaison BAC. Une coloration IHC à l'aide d'anticorps anti-FLAG a confirmé la présence de CTCFL au niveau des spermatogonies de type Β et des spermatocytes au stade préleptotène, et une distribution mutuellement exclusive avec CTCF. Une méthode de Chromatine Immunoprecipitation (ChIP) suivie d'un séquençage à haut débit a permis d'identifier 10.382 sites de liaison montrant 70% d'homologie mais ne représentant que 20% des sites CTCF. L'analyse de la séquence consensus révèle un motif de fixation à l'ADN nettement plus long et qui comporte bien moins de bases aléatoires à chaque position nucléotidique. La différence significative entre les séquences génomiques des sites de liaison au CTCF et CTCFL suggère que leur fixation à l'ADN est régulée différemment. Appliquée à l'échelle du génome, l'étude de l'interaction de CTCFL avec des régions méthylées de l'ADN a permis d'identifier environ 1.000 loci. Contrairement à CTCFL, la liaison de CTCF dépend de l'état de méthylation de l'ADN ; cette modification épigénétique constitue donc au moins un des mécanismes de régulation expliquant une localisation de CTCF et CTCFL à des sites distincts du génome. La co- localisation de CTCF avec la cohésine étant établie, l'analyse de la superposition des séquences de CTCFL avec la sous-unité SMC3 identifie environ 3.300 sites de liaison parmi lesquels deux mêmes motifs consensus distincts par leur séquence sont mis en évidence. La presque quasi-totalité des données sur la cohésine ayant été établie à partir de cellules en prolifération mitotique, il est probable que la similitude au sein des séquences consensus soit encore plus grande dans le cas des cellules en méiose. La sous-unité Rec8 de la cohésine propre à l'état de méiose est spécifiquement exprimée dans les spermatocytes. Or 6 des 12 sites de liaison identifiés sont également utilisés par CTCFL. Pour conclure, ce travail constitue la première cartographie à l'échelle du génome des sites de liaison de CTCFL dans les spermatocytes, seul type cellulaire où CTCFL n'est pas exprimé. CTCFL possède un répertoire unique de sites de fixation à l'ADN distinct de CTCF, se lie à des séquences méthylées et présente un nombre important de sites de liaison communs avec la cohésine. Les perspectives futures sont d'élucider le rôle de CTCFL dans le remodelage de la structure de la chromatine et de définir sa fonction dans le processus de méiose.

Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale: some case studies

Every year, debris flows cause huge damage in mountainous areas. Due to population pressure in hazardous zones, the socio-economic impact is much higher than in the past. Therefore, the development of indicative susceptibility hazard maps is of primary importance, particularly in developing countries. However, the complexity of the phenomenon and the variability of local controlling factors limit the use of processbased models for a first assessment. A debris flow model has been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using digital elevation model (DEM) with a GIS-based approach.. The automatic identification of source areas and the estimation of debris flow spreading, based on GIS tools, provide a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. One of the main advantages of this model is its workability. In fact, everything is open to the user, from the data choice to the selection of the algorithms and their parameters. The Flow-R model was tested in three different contexts: two in Switzerland and one in Pakistan, for indicative susceptibility hazard mapping. It was shown that the quality of the DEM is the most important parameter to obtain reliable results for propagation, but also to identify the potential debris flows sources.