A conditional random field-based downscaling method for assessment of climate change impact on multisite daily precipitation in the Mahanadi basin

Downscaling to station-scale hydrologic variables from large-scale atmospheric variables simulated by general circulation models (GCMs) is usually necessary to assess the hydrologic impact of climate change. This work presents CRF-downscaling, a new probabilistic downscaling method that represents the daily precipitation sequence as a conditional random field (CRF). The conditional distribution of the precipitation sequence at a site, given the daily atmospheric (large-scale) variable sequence, is modeled as a linear chain CRF. CRFs do not make assumptions on independence of observations, which gives them flexibility in using high-dimensional feature vectors. Maximum likelihood parameter estimation for the model is performed using limited memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (L-BFGS) optimization. Maximum a posteriori estimation is used to determine the most likely precipitation sequence for a given set of atmospheric input variables using the Viterbi algorithm. Direct classification of dry/wet days as well as precipitation amount is achieved within a single modeling framework. The model is used to project the future cumulative distribution function of precipitation. Uncertainty in precipitation prediction is addressed through a modified Viterbi algorithm that predicts the n most likely sequences. The model is applied for downscaling monsoon (June-September) daily precipitation at eight sites in the Mahanadi basin in Orissa, India, using the MIROC3.2 medium-resolution GCM. The predicted distributions at all sites show an increase in the number of wet days, and also an increase in wet day precipitation amounts. A comparison of current and future predicted probability density functions for daily precipitation shows a change in shape of the density function with decreasing probability of lower precipitation and increasing probability of higher precipitation.

Ship collision avoidance and COLREGS compliance using simulation-based control behavior selection with predictive hazard assessment

This paper describes a concept for a collision avoidance system for ships, which is based on model predictive control. A finite set of alternative control behaviors are generated by varying two parameters: offsets to the guidance course angle commanded to the autopilot and changes to the propulsion command ranging from nominal speed to full reverse. Using simulated predictions of the trajectories of the obstacles and ship, compliance with the Convention on the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea and collision hazards associated with each of the alternative control behaviors are evaluated on a finite prediction horizon, and the optimal control behavior is selected. Robustness to sensing error, predicted obstacle behavior, and environmental conditions can be ensured by evaluating multiple scenarios for each control behavior. The method is conceptually and computationally simple and yet quite versatile as it can account for the dynamics of the ship, the dynamics of the steering and propulsion system, forces due to wind and ocean current, and any number of obstacles. Simulations show that the method is effective and can manage complex scenarios with multiple dynamic obstacles and uncertainty associated with sensors and predictions.

Methodological perspectives for register-based health system performance assessment : Developing a hip fracture monitoring system in Finland

The resources of health systems are limited. There is a need for information concerning the performance of the health system for the purposes of decision-making. This study is about utilization of administrative registers in the context of health system performance evaluation. In order to address this issue, a multidisciplinary methodological framework for register-based data analysis is defined. Because the fixed structure of register-based data indirectly determines constraints on the theoretical constructs, it is essential to elaborate the whole analytic process with respect to the data. The fundamental methodological concepts and theories are synthesized into a data sensitive approach which helps to understand and overcome the problems that are likely to be encountered during a register-based data analyzing process. A pragmatically useful health system performance monitoring should produce valid information about the volume of the problems, about the use of services and about the effectiveness of provided services. A conceptual model for hip fracture performance assessment is constructed and the validity of Finnish registers as a data source for the purposes of performance assessment of hip fracture treatment is confirmed. Solutions to several pragmatic problems related to the development of a register-based hip fracture incidence surveillance system are proposed. The monitoring of effectiveness of treatment is shown to be possible in terms of care episodes. Finally, an example on the justification of a more detailed performance indicator to be used in the profiling of providers is given. In conclusion, it is possible to produce useful and valid information on health system performance by using Finnish register-based data. However, that seems to be far more complicated than is typically assumed. The perspectives given in this study introduce a necessary basis for further work and help in the routine implementation of a hip fracture monitoring system in Finland.

Assessment of In-House Natural Product and Synthetic Compound Libraries Based on In vitro Inhibition of Cholinesterases

The first line medication for mild to moderate Alzheimer s disease (AD) is based on cholinesterase inhibitors which prolong the effect of the neurotransmitter acetylcholine in cholinergic nerve synapses which relieves the symptoms of the disease. Implications of cholinesterases involvement in disease modifying processes has increased interest in this research area. The drug discovery and development process is a long and expensive process that takes on average 13.5 years and costs approximately 0.9 billion US dollars. Drug attritions in the clinical phases are common due to several reasons, e.g., poor bioavailability of compounds leading to low efficacy or toxic effects. Thus, improvements in the early drug discovery process are needed to create highly potent non-toxic compounds with predicted drug-like properties. Nature has been a good source for the discovery of new medicines accounting for around half of the new drugs approved to market during the last three decades. These compounds are direct isolates from the nature, their synthetic derivatives or natural mimics. Synthetic chemistry is an alternative way to produce compounds for drug discovery purposes. Both sources have pros and cons. The screening of new bioactive compounds in vitro is based on assaying compound libraries against targets. Assay set-up has to be adapted and validated for each screen to produce high quality data. Depending on the size of the library, miniaturization and automation are often requirements to reduce solvent and compound amounts and fasten the process. In this contribution, natural extract, natural pure compound and synthetic compound libraries were assessed as sources for new bioactive compounds. The libraries were screened primarily for acetylcholinesterase inhibitory effect and secondarily for butyrylcholinesterase inhibitory effect. To be able to screen the libraries, two assays were evaluated as screening tools and adapted to be compatible with special features of each library. The assays were validated to create high quality data. Cholinesterase inhibitors with various potencies and selectivity were found in natural product and synthetic compound libraries which indicates that the two sources complement each other. It is acknowledged that natural compounds differ structurally from compounds in synthetic compound libraries which further support the view of complementation especially if a high diversity of structures is the criterion for selection of compounds in a library.

Assessment of insect occurrence in boreal forests based on satellite imagery and field measurements.

The presence/absence data of twenty-seven forest insect taxa (e.g. Retinia resinella, Formica spp., Pissodes spp., several scolytids) and recorded environmental variation were used to investigate the applicability of modelling insect occurrence based on satellite imagery. The sampling was based on 1800 sample plots (25 m by 25 m) placed along the sides of 30 equilateral triangles (side 1 km) in a fragmented forest area (approximately 100 km2) in Evo, S Finland. The triangles were overlaid on land use maps interpreted from satellite images (Landsat TM 30 m multispectral scanner imagery 1991) and digitized geological maps. Insect occurrence was explained using either environmental variables measured in the field or those interpreted from the land use and geological maps. The fit of logistic regression models varied between species, possibly because some species may be associated with the characteristics of single trees while other species with stand characteristics. The occurrence of certain insect species at least, especially those associated with Scots pine, could be relatively accurately assessed indirectly on the basis of satellite imagery and geological maps. Models based on both remotely sensed and geological data better predicted the distribution of forest insects except in the case of Xylechinus pilosus, Dryocoetes sp. and Trypodendron lineatum, where the differences were relatively small in favour of the models based on field measurements. The number of species was related to habitat compartment size and distance from the habitat edge calculated from the land use maps, but logistic regressions suggested that other environmental variables in general masked the effect of these variables in species occurrence at the present scale.

Quality Assurance and Assessment in Technical Education System: A Web Based Approach

Engineering education quality embraces the activities through which a technical institution satisfies itself that the quality of education it provides and standards it has set are appropriate and are being maintained. There is a need to develop a standardised approach to most aspects of quality assurance for engineering programmes which is sufficiently well defined to be accepted for all assessments.We have designed a Technical Educational Quality Assurance and Assessment (TEQ-AA) System, which makes use of the information on the web and analyzes the standards of the institution. With the standards as anchors for definition, the institution is clearer about its present in order to plan better for its future and enhancing the level of educational quality.The system has been tested and implemented on the technical educational Institutions in the Karnataka State which usually host their web pages for commercially advertising their technical education programs and their Institution objectives, policies, etc., for commercialization and for better reach-out to the students and faculty. This helps in assisting the students in selecting an institution for study and to assist in employment.

Self Assessment-Based Decision Making for Multiagent Cooperative Search

This paper addresses a search problem with multiple limited capability search agents in a partially connected dynamical networked environment under different information structures. A self assessment-based decision-making scheme for multiple agents is proposed that uses a modified negotiation scheme with low communication overheads. The scheme has attractive features of fast decision-making and scalability to large number of agents without increasing the complexity of the algorithm. Two models of the self assessment schemes are developed to study the effect of increase in information exchange during decision-making. Some analytical results on the maximum number of self assessment cycles, effect of increasing communication range, completeness of the algorithm, lower bound and upper bound on the search time are also obtained. The performance of the various self assessment schemes in terms of total uncertainty reduction in the search region, using different information structures is studied. It is shown that the communication requirement for self assessment scheme is almost half of the negotiation schemes and its performance is close to the optimal solution. Comparisons with different sequential search schemes are also carried out. Note to Practitioners-In the futuristic military and civilian applications such as search and rescue, surveillance, patrol, oil spill, etc., a swarm of UAVs can be deployed to carry out the mission for information collection. These UAVs have limited sensor and communication ranges. In order to enhance the performance of the mission and to complete the mission quickly, cooperation between UAVs is important. Designing cooperative search strategies for multiple UAVs with these constraints is a difficult task. Apart from this, another requirement in the hostile territory is to minimize communication while making decisions. This adds further complexity to the decision-making algorithms. In this paper, a self-assessment-based decision-making scheme, for multiple UAVs performing a search mission, is proposed. The agents make their decisions based on the information acquired through their sensors and by cooperation with neighbors. The complexity of the decision-making scheme is very low. It can arrive at decisions fast with low communication overheads, while accommodating various information structures used for increasing the fidelity of the uncertainty maps. Theoretical results proving completeness of the algorithm and the lower and upper bounds on the search time are also provided.

An ANN based approach for voltage stability assessment

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have recently been proposed as an alterative method for salving certain traditional problems in power systems where conventional techniques have not achieved the desired speed, accuracy or efficiency. This paper presents application of ANN where the aim is to achieve fast voltage stability margin assessment of power network in an energy control centre (ECC), with reduced number of appropriate inputs. L-index has been used for assessing voltage stability margin. Investigations are carried out on the influence of information encompassed in input vector and target out put vector, on the learning time and test performance of multi layer perceptron (MLP) based ANN model. LP based algorithm for voltage stability improvement, is used for generating meaningful training patterns in the normal operating range of the system. From the generated set of training patterns, appropriate training patterns are selected based on statistical correlation process, sensitivity matrix approach, contingency ranking approach and concentric relaxation method. Simulation results on a 24 bus EHV system, 30 bus modified IEEE system, and a 82 bus Indian power network are presented for illustration purposes.

Novel algorithm for online voltage stability assessment based on feed forward neural network

This paper presents an artificial feed forward neural network (FFNN) approach for the assessment of power system voltage stability. A novel approach based on the input-output relation between real and reactive power, as well as voltage vectors for generators and load buses is used to train the neural net (NN). The input properties of the feed forward network are generated from offline training data with various simulated loading conditions using a conventional voltage stability algorithm based on the L-index. The neural network is trained for the L-index output as the target vector for each of the system loads. Two separate trained NN, corresponding to normal loading and contingency, are investigated on the 367 node practical power system network. The performance of the trained artificial neural network (ANN) is also investigated on the system under various voltage stability assessment conditions. As compared to the computationally intensive benchmark conventional software, near accurate results in the value of L-index and thus the voltage profile were obtained. Proposed algorithm is fast, robust and accurate and can be used online for predicting the L-indices of all the power system buses. The proposed ANN approach is also shown to be effective and computationally feasible in voltage stability assessment as well as potential enhancements within an overall energy management system in order to determining local and global stability indices

Assessment of seismic hazard and liquefaction potential of Gujarat based on probabilistic approaches

Gujarat is one of the fastest-growing states of India with high industrial activities coming up in major cities of the state. It is indispensable to analyse seismic hazard as the region is considered to be most seismically active in stable continental region of India. The Bhuj earthquake of 2001 has caused extensive damage in terms of causality and economic loss. In the present study, the seismic hazard of Gujarat evaluated using a probabilistic approach with the use of logic tree framework that minimizes the uncertainties in hazard assessment. The peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) and spectral acceleration (Sa) values were evaluated for 10 and 2 % probability of exceedance in 50 years. Two important geotechnical effects of earthquakes, site amplification and liquefaction, are also evaluated, considering site characterization based on site classes. The liquefaction return period for the entire state of Gujarat is evaluated using a performance-based approach. The maps of PHA and PGA values prepared in this study are very useful for seismic hazard mitigation of the region in future.

Structure, tensile properties and cytotoxicity assessment of sebacic acid based biodegradable polyesters with ricinoleic acid

A new family of ricinoleic acid based polyesters was synthesized using catalyst free melt-condensation polymerization with sebacic acid, citric acid, mannitol and ricinoleic acid as precursors. The use of FT-IR and NMR characterisation techniques confirms the presence of ester linkages in the as-synthesized polymers. Depending on the precursor combination, their relative amount and the degree of curing, a broad range of elastic modulus (22-327 MPa) and tensile strength (0.7-12.7 MPa) can be obtained in the newly synthesized biopolymers. The polymers show rubbery behaviour at a physiological temperature (37 degrees C) and the contact angles of the synthesized polymers fall in the range of 42 degrees to 71 degrees, making them ideal substrates to study delivery of drugs through polymer scaffolds. The cytocompatibility assessment of the cured polymers confirmed good cell attachment and growth of smooth muscle cells (C2C12 myoblast cells). Importantly, oriented cell growth was observed after culturing myoblast cells for 3 days. The in vitro degradation in PBS indicates that the mild cured polymers follow a first order reaction kinetics and have degradation rate constants in the range of 0.009-0.038 h(-1), depending on the relative proportions of monomers. Overall, the results of our study indicate that the physical properties can be tailored by varying the composition of the monomers and curing conditions in the newly developed polyesters. Hence, they may be used as potential substrates for tissue engineering scaffolds and for localized drug delivery.

Spectral-spatial MODIS image analysis using swarm intelligence algorithms and region based segmentation for flood assessment

This paper discusses an approach for river mapping and flood evaluation based on multi-temporal time-series analysis of satellite images utilizing pixel spectral information for image clustering and region based segmentation for extracting water covered regions. MODIS satellite images are analyzed at two stages: before flood and during flood. Multi-temporal MODIS images are processed in two steps. In the first step, clustering algorithms such as Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) are used to distinguish the water regions from the non-water based on spectral information. These algorithms are chosen since they are quite efficient in solving multi-modal optimization problems. These classified images are then segmented using spatial features of the water region to extract the river. From the results obtained, we evaluate the performance of the methods and conclude that incorporating region based image segmentation along with clustering algorithms provides accurate and reliable approach for the extraction of water covered region.

Naphthalene Carbohydrazone Based Dizinc(II) Chemosensor for a Pyrophosphate Ion and Its DNA Assessment Application in Polymerase Chain Reaction Products

A new naphthalene carbohydrazone based dizinc(II) complex has been synthesized and investigated to act as a highly selective fluorescence and visual sensor for a pyrophosphate ion with a quite low detection limit of 155 ppb; this has also been used to detect the pyrophosphate ion released from polymerase-chain-reaction.