Efeito da perda de carga e calor no poço injetor no processo de drenagem gravitacional assistido com vapor e solvente

Nowadays, most of the hydrocarbon reserves in the world are in the form of heavy oil, ultra - heavy or bitumen. For the extraction and production of this resource is required to implement new technologies. One of the promising processes for the recovery of this oil is the Expanding Solvent Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (ES-SAGD) which uses two parallel horizontal wells, where the injection well is situated vertically above the production well. The completion of the process occurs upon injection of a hydrocarbon additive at low concentration in conjunction with steam. The steam adds heat to reduce the viscosity of the oil and solvent aids in reducing the interfacial tension between oil/ solvent. The main force acting in this process is the gravitational and the heat transfer takes place by conduction, convection and latent heat of steam. In this study was used the discretized wellbore model, where the well is discretized in the same way that the reservoir and each section of the well treated as a block of grid, with interblock connection with the reservoir. This study aims to analyze the influence of the pressure drop and heat along the injection well in the ES-SAGD process. The model used for the study is a homogeneous reservoir, semi synthetic with characteristics of the Brazilian Northeast and numerical simulations were performed using the STARS thermal simulator from CMG (Computer Modelling Group). The operational parameters analyzed were: percentage of solvent injected, the flow of steam injection, vertical distance between the wells and steam quality. All of them were significant in oil recovery factor positively influencing this. The results showed that, for all cases analyzed, the model considers the pressure drop has cumulative production of oil below its respective model that disregards such loss. This difference is more pronounced the lower the value of the flow of steam injection

Fatores de sucesso ou insucesso do turismo ambientalmente sustentável : percepção das autoridades públicas no pólo costa das dunas do Rio Grande do Norte

This study aims to compare the thermal performance of tiles made from recycled material (waste packaging cardboard with aluminized film) with the tiles of fiber and bitumen, fiber cement and red ceramic with the aim of verifying the suitability of tile to be used in hot and humid climate of low latitude. The samples were selected according to the availability from Natal RN market, as they are sold to the consumers. The methodology was based on studies that used experimental apparatus composed of thermal chambers heated by banks of incandescent bulbs, to analyze the thermal performance of materials. The tiles in the study were submitted to analysis of thermal performance, thermophysical properties and absorptance, using chambers of thermal performance, measuring the thermophysical properties and portable spectrometer, respectively. Comparative analysis of thermal performance between two samples of the recycled material with dimple sizes and different amounts of aluminum were made, in order to verify, if these characteristics had some interference on the thermal performance of them; the results showed no significant performance differences between the samples. The data obtained in chambers of thermal performance and confirmed by statistical analysis, showed, that the tile of recycled material have similar thermal performance to the tile of fiber cement. In addition to these tests was carried out the automatic monitoring of a building covered with tiles of recycled material, to verify its thermal performance in a real situation. The results showed that recycled shingles must be used with technical criteria similar to those used for fiber cement tiles, with regard to the heat gain into the building. Within these criteria should be taken into account local characteristics, especially in regions with hot and humid climate, and its use must be associated, according to the literature, to elements of thermal insulation and use of passive techniques such as vented attics, ceilings and right foot higher

Testing option pricing with the Edgeworth expansion

There is a well-developed framework, the Black-Scholes theory, for the pricing of contracts based on the future prices of certain assets, called options. This theory assumes that the probability distribution of the returns of the underlying asset is a Gaussian distribution. However, it is observed in the market that this hypothesis is flawed, leading to the introduction of a fudge factor, the so-called volatility smile. Therefore, it would be interesting to explore extensions of the Black-Scholes theory to non-Gaussian distributions. In this paper, we provide an explicit formula for the price of an option when the distributions of the returns of the underlying asset is parametrized by an Edgeworth expansion, which allows for the introduction of higher independent moments of the probability distribution, namely skewness and kurtosis. We test our formula with options in the Brazilian and American markets, showing that the volatility smile can be reduced. We also check whether our approach leads to more efficient hedging strategies of these instruments. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Thermal comfort in reduced models of broilers' houses, under different types of roofing materials

Esta pesquisa foi conduzida com o objetivo de avaliar diferentes tipos de coberturas em instalações para aves, por meio do Índice de Temperatura de Globo Negro e Umidade (ITGU), Carga Térmica de Radiação (CTR) e Entalpia (H). O experimento foi conduzido na Universidade Estadual de Goiás, entre os meses de abril e maio de 2011, sendo composto por cinco tratamentos (coberturas): CA -Telha de cimento-amianto; BA -Telha de bambu; BAP -Telha de bambu pintada de branco; FB -Telha de fibra vegetal e betume; FBP -Telha de fibra vegetal e betume pintada de branco, com 15 repetições, sendo as repetições os dias de medição. Dentre os horários estudados, o considerado menos confortável foi às 14h, sendo que a cobertura de fibra vegetal e betume foi a que apresentou maior valor de ITGU (84,1) quando comparada às demais coberturas, caracterizando uma situação de menor conforto térmico, não sendo observada diferença para CTR e H entre os tratamentos na região estudada.

Investimento materno em anfíbios anuros: a questão da variação no tamanho do ovo

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

RP92-217 #2 Producer Marketing Mangement: Deferred Pricing Alternatives for Grain

Grain producers must make marketing decisions every day. First they must decide whether to price or hold grain. If they decide to price grain, they must then choose the most appropriate method of pricing: cash sale, forward contract, or hedging. If they decide to hold grain (not to price), they must choose the most appropriate method of retaining ownership. This fact sheet presents some guidelines to help producers choose the least costly method of owning grain or speculating on price level changes.

Comparison of the n-Alkanes and Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons Concentrations in the Atmosphere during the Preparation of Warm and Hot Mixtures Asphalt for Pavements

Asphalt binder is used in the production of hot mixes asphalt (HMA) for paving and, due to the high temperatures used, generates fumes thatcontainn-alkanes and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH). Asphalt mixes prepared at lower temperatures, such as warm mixes asphalt (WMA), may contribute to reduce the emissions of those compounds and save energy. This paper investigatesn-alkanes and PAH in the total suspended particles during the preparation of WMA, in comparison with HMA, in laboratory. The results showed that the n-alkanes of the WMA and HMA presented C-max at n-C-26 and n-C-28, respectively; also, the total content of n-alkanes was higher for the HMA than forthe WMA. Besides, benzo[b]fluoranthene and benzo[a]anthracene were the major PAH in the WMA, while the higher temperatures of the HMA were observed to volatilize all larger PAH, demonstrating higher potential of inhalation exposure.

Laboratory verification of predicted permanent deformation in asphalt materials following climate change.

In the past a change in temperature of 5°C most often occurred over intervals of thousands of years. According to estimates by the IPCC, in the XXI century is expected an increase in average temperatures in Europe between 1.8 and 4.0°C in the best case caused by emissions of carbon dioxide and other GHG from human activities. As well as on the environment and economic context, global warming will have effects even on road safety. Several studies have already shown how increasing temperature may cause a worsening of some types of road surface damages, especially rutting, a permanent deformation of the road structures consisting in the formation of a longitudinal depression in the wheelpath, mostly due to the rheological behavior of bitumen. This deformation evolves during the hot season because of the heating capacity of the asphalt layers, in fact, the road surface temperature is up to 24°C higher than air. In this thesis, through the use of Wheeltrack test, it was studied the behavior of some types of asphalt concrete mixtures subjected to fatigue testing at different temperatures. The objectives of this study are: to determine the strain variation of different bituminous mixture subjected to fatigue testing at different temperature conditions; to investigate the effect of aggregates, bitumen and mixtures’ characteristics on rutting. Samples were made in the laboratory mostly using an already prepared mixtures, the others preparing the asphalt concrete from the grading curve and bitumen content. The same procedure was performed for each specimen: preparation, compaction using the roller compactor, cooling and heating before the test. The tests were carried out at 40 - 50 - 60°C in order to obtain the evolution of deformation with temperature variation, except some mixtures for which the tests were carried out only at 50°C. In the elaboration of the results were considered testing parameters, component properties and the characteristics of the mixture. Among the testing parameters, temperature was varied for each sample. The mixtures responded to this variation with a different behavior (linear logarithmic and exponential) not directly correlated with the asphalt characteristics; the others parameters as load, passage frequency and test condition were kept constant. According to the results obtained, the main contribution to deformation is due to the type of binder used, it was found that the modified bitumen have a better response than the same mixtures containing traditional bitumen; to the porosity which affects negatively the behavior of the samples and to the homogeneity ceteris paribus. The granulometric composition did not seem to have interfered with the results. Overall has emerged at working temperature, a decisive importance of bitumen composition, than the other characteristics of the mixture, that tends to disappear with heating in favor of increased dependence of rutting resistance from the granulometric composition of the sample considered. In particular it is essential, rather than the mechanical characteristics of the binder, its chemical properties given by the polymeric modification. To confirm some considered results, the maximum bulk density and the air voids content were determined. Tests have been conducted in the laboratories of the Civil Engineering Department at NTNU in Trondheim according to European Standards.

Stochastic models and dynamic measures for the characterization of bistable circuits

During the last few years, a great deal of interest has risen concerning the applications of stochastic methods to several biochemical and biological phenomena. Phenomena like gene expression, cellular memory, bet-hedging strategy in bacterial growth and many others, cannot be described by continuous stochastic models due to their intrinsic discreteness and randomness. In this thesis I have used the Chemical Master Equation (CME) technique to modelize some feedback cycles and analyzing their properties, including experimental data. In the first part of this work, the effect of stochastic stability is discussed on a toy model of the genetic switch that triggers the cellular division, which malfunctioning is known to be one of the hallmarks of cancer. The second system I have worked on is the so-called futile cycle, a closed cycle of two enzymatic reactions that adds and removes a chemical compound, called phosphate group, to a specific substrate. I have thus investigated how adding noise to the enzyme (that is usually in the order of few hundred molecules) modifies the probability of observing a specific number of phosphorylated substrate molecules, and confirmed theoretical predictions with numerical simulations. In the third part the results of the study of a chain of multiple phosphorylation-dephosphorylation cycles will be presented. We will discuss an approximation method for the exact solution in the bidimensional case and the relationship that this method has with the thermodynamic properties of the system, which is an open system far from equilibrium.In the last section the agreement between the theoretical prediction of the total protein quantity in a mouse cells population and the observed quantity will be shown, measured via fluorescence microscopy.

Caratterizzazione avanzata in laboratorio di materie prime secondarie rigenerate o stabilizzate con emulsione di bitume e leganti cementizi

Il recupero dei materiali di scarto è un aspetto di grande attualità in campo stradale, così come negli altri ambiti dell’ingegneria civile. L’attenzione della ricerca e degli esperti del settore è rivolta all’affinamento di tecniche di riciclaggio che riducano l’impatto ambientale senza compromettere le prestazioni meccaniche finali. Tali indagini cercano di far corrispondere le necessità di smaltimento dei rifiuti con quelle dell’industria infrastrutturale, legate al reperimento di materiali da costruzione tecnicamente idonei ed economicamente vantaggiosi. Attualmente sono già diversi i tipi di prodotti rigenerati e riutilizzati nella realizzazione delle pavimentazioni stradali e numerosi sono anche quelli di nuova introduzione in fase di sperimentazione. In particolare, accanto ai materiali derivanti dalle operazioni di recupero della rete viaria, è opportuno considerare anche quelli provenienti dall’esercizio delle attività di trasporto, il quale comporta ogni anno il raggiungimento della fine della vita utile per centinaia di migliaia di tonnellate di pneumatici di gomma. L’obiettivo della presente analisi sperimentale è quello di fornire indicazioni e informazioni in merito alla tecnica di riciclaggio a freddo con emulsione bituminosa e cemento, valutando la possibilità di applicazione di tale metodologia in combinazione con il polverino di gomma, ottenuto dal recupero degli pneumatici fuori uso (PFU). La ricerca si distingue per una duplice valenza: la prima è quella di promuovere ulteriormente la tecnica di riciclaggio a freddo, che si sta imponendo per i suoi numerosi vantaggi economici ed ambientali, legati soprattutto alla temperatura d’esercizio; la seconda è quella di sperimentare l’utilizzo del polverino di gomma, nelle due forme di granulazione tradizionale e criogenica, additivato a miscele costituite interamente da materiale proveniente da scarifica di pavimentazioni esistenti e stabilizzate con diverse percentuali di emulsione di bitume e di legante cementizio.

Flexibility and firm value: the role of inventories

In the present thesis I study the contribution to firm value of inventories management from a risk management perspective. I find a significant contribution of inventories to the value of risk management especially through the operating flexibility channel. In contrast, I do not find evidence supporting the view of inventories a reserve of liquidity. Inventories substitute, albeit not perfectly, derivatives or cash holdings. The substitution between hedging with derivatives and inventory is moderated by the correlation between cash flow and the underlying asset in the derivative contract. Hedge ratios increase with the effectiveness of derivatives. The decision to hedge with cash holdings or inventories is strongly influenced by the degree of complementarity between production factors and by cash flow volatility. In addition, I provide a risk management based explanation of the secular substitution between inventories and cash holdings documented, among others, in Bates et al. (2009), Journal of Finance. In a sample of U.S. firms between 1980 and 2006, I empirically confirm the negative relation between inventories and cash and provide evidence on the poor performance of investment cash flow sensitivities as a measure of financial constraints also in the case of inventories investment. This result can be explained by firms' scarce reliance on inventories as a reserve of liquidity. Finally, as an extension of my study, I contrast with empirical data the theoretical predictions of a model on the integrated management of inventories, trade credit and cash holdings.

Mummies and skeletons from the Coptic monastery complex Deir el-Bachit in Thebes-west, Egypt

Deir el-Bachit is the largest known Coptic monastery complex in Thebes-West. It dates to the Late Antiquity period between the 6th and the beginning of the 10th century AD. So far, at least 26 individuals from the site were analysed anthropologically. 22 of them were excavated directly at the necropolis, the other 4 are special burials that were found at other locations nearby.Most individuals from the necropolis are male adults. There are two categories of human remains: “mummified” and “skeletonised”. The differences are probably due to social stratification. A substance similar to bitumen was found at the mummies. At that time, resin containing oils and bitumen were normally not used any more. One of the Special burials was an approximately three years old child which was found enclosed within a wall. Another special burial was a juvenile or young adult female who was found in the vault of an abandoned granary. The female was most likely pregnant and fell victim to a violent crime. This is indicated by the bones of a six months old foetus and an intravital skull fracture. She was no contemporary from the time the monastery was cultivated but was later deposited in this area.

Benefits of Induced Host Responses against an Ectoparasite

As a consequence of the deleterious effects of parasites on host fitness, hosts have evolved responses to minimize the negative impact of parasite infection. Facultative parasite-induced responses are favoured when the risk of infection is unpredictable and host responses are costly. In vertebrates, induced responses are generally viewed as being adaptive, although evidence for fitness benefits arising from these responses in natural host populations is lacking. Here we provide experimental evidence for direct reproductive benefits in flea-infested great tit nests arising from exposure during egg production to fleas. In the experiment we exposed a group of birds to fleas during egg laying (the exposed group), thereby allowing for induced responses, and kept another group free of parasites (the unexposed group) over the same time period. At the start of incubation, we killed the parasites in both groups and all nests were reinfested with fleas. If induced responses occur and are adaptive, we expect that birds of the exposed group mount earlier responses and achieve higher current reproductive success than birds in the unexposed group. In agreement with this prediction, our results show that birds with nests infested during egg-laying have (i) fewer breeding failures and raise a higher proportion of hatchlings to hedging age; () offspring that reach greater body mass, grow longer feathers, and hedge earlier, and (iii) a higher number of recruits and first-year grandchildren than unexposed birds. Flea reproduction and survival did not differ significantly between the two treatments. These results provide the first evidence for the occurrence and the adaptiveness of induced responses against a common ectoparasite in a wild population of vertebrates. [References: 50]

Price risk management in the copper market using commodity derivatives and options strategies

Metals price risk management is a key issue related to financial risk in metal markets because of uncertainty of commodity price fluctuation, exchange rate, interest rate changes and huge price risk either to metals’ producers or consumers. Thus, it has been taken into account by all participants in metal markets including metals’ producers, consumers, merchants, banks, investment funds, speculators, traders and so on. Managing price risk provides stable income for both metals’ producers and consumers, so it increases the chance that a firm will invest in attractive projects. The purpose of this research is to evaluate risk management strategies in the copper market. The main tools and strategies of price risk management are hedging and other derivatives such as futures contracts, swaps and options contracts. Hedging is a transaction designed to reduce or eliminate price risk. Derivatives are financial instruments, whose returns are derived from other financial instruments and they are commonly used for managing financial risks. Although derivatives have been around in some form for centuries, their growth has accelerated rapidly during the last 20 years. Nowadays, they are widely used by financial institutions, corporations, professional investors, and individuals. This project is focused on the over-the-counter (OTC) market and its products such as exotic options, particularly Asian options. The first part of the project is a description of basic derivatives and risk management strategies. In addition, this part discusses basic concepts of spot and futures (forward) markets, benefits and costs of risk management and risks and rewards of positions in the derivative markets. The second part considers valuations of commodity derivatives. In this part, the options pricing model DerivaGem is applied to Asian call and put options on London Metal Exchange (LME) copper because it is important to understand how Asian options are valued and to compare theoretical values of the options with their market observed values. Predicting future trends of copper prices is important and would be essential to manage market price risk successfully. Therefore, the third part is a discussion about econometric commodity models. Based on this literature review, the fourth part of the project reports the construction and testing of an econometric model designed to forecast the monthly average price of copper on the LME. More specifically, this part aims at showing how LME copper prices can be explained by means of a simultaneous equation structural model (two-stage least squares regression) connecting supply and demand variables. A simultaneous econometric model for the copper industry is built: {█(Q_t^D=e^((-5.0485))∙P_((t-1))^((-0.1868) )∙〖GDP〗_t^((1.7151) )∙e^((0.0158)∙〖IP〗_t ) @Q_t^S=e^((-3.0785))∙P_((t-1))^((0.5960))∙T_t^((0.1408))∙P_(OIL(t))^((-0.1559))∙〖USDI〗_t^((1.2432))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((-0.0561))@Q_t^D=Q_t^S )┤ P_((t-1))^CU=e^((-2.5165))∙〖GDP〗_t^((2.1910))∙e^((0.0202)∙〖IP〗_t )∙T_t^((-0.1799))∙P_(OIL(t))^((0.1991))∙〖USDI〗_t^((-1.5881))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((0.0717) Where, Q_t^D and Q_t^Sare world demand for and supply of copper at time t respectively. P(t-1) is the lagged price of copper, which is the focus of the analysis in this part. GDPt is world gross domestic product at time t, which represents aggregate economic activity. In addition, industrial production should be considered here, so the global industrial production growth that is noted as IPt is included in the model. Tt is the time variable, which is a useful proxy for technological change. A proxy variable for the cost of energy in producing copper is the price of oil at time t, which is noted as POIL(t ) . USDIt is the U.S. dollar index variable at time t, which is an important variable for explaining the copper supply and copper prices. At last, LIBOR(t-6) is the 6-month lagged 1-year London Inter bank offering rate of interest. Although, the model can be applicable for different base metals' industries, the omitted exogenous variables such as the price of substitute or a combined variable related to the price of substitutes have not been considered in this study. Based on this econometric model and using a Monte-Carlo simulation analysis, the probabilities that the monthly average copper prices in 2006 and 2007 will be greater than specific strike price of an option are defined. The final part evaluates risk management strategies including options strategies, metal swaps and simple options in relation to the simulation results. The basic options strategies such as bull spreads, bear spreads and butterfly spreads, which are created by using both call and put options in 2006 and 2007 are evaluated. Consequently, each risk management strategy in 2006 and 2007 is analyzed based on the day of data and the price prediction model. As a result, applications stemming from this project include valuing Asian options, developing a copper price prediction model, forecasting and planning, and decision making for price risk management in the copper market.

Game-theoretic view on intermediated exchange

Intermediaries permeate modern economic exchange. Most classical models on intermediated exchange are driven by information asymmetry and inventory management. These two factors are of reduced significance in modern economies. This makes it necessary to develop models that correspond more closely to modern financial marketplaces. The goal of this dissertation is to propose and examine such models in a game theoretical context. The proposed models are driven by asymmetries in the goals of different market participants. Hedging pressure as one of the most critical aspects in the behavior of commercial entities plays a crucial role. The first market model shows that no equilibrium solution can exist in a market consisting of a commercial buyer, a commercial seller and a non-commercial intermediary. This indicates a clear economic need for non-commercial trading intermediaries: a direct trade from seller to buyer does not result in an equilibrium solution. The second market model has two distinct intermediaries between buyer and seller: a spread trader/market maker and a risk-neutral intermediary. In this model a unique, natural equilibrium solution is identified in which the supply-demand surplus is traded by the risk-neutral intermediary, whilst the market maker trades the remainder from seller to buyer. Since the market maker’s payoff for trading at the identified equilibrium price is zero, this second model does not provide any motivation for the market maker to enter the market. The third market model introduces an explicit transaction fee that enables the market maker to secure a positive payoff. Under certain assumptions on this transaction fee the equilibrium solution of the previous model applies and now also provides a financial motivation for the market maker to enter the market. If the transaction fee violates an upper bound that depends on supply, demand and riskaversity of buyer and seller, the market will be in disequilibrium.