Análise de métodos para detecção de mudanças estruturais em séries temporais climáticas

The time series analysis has played an increasingly important role in weather and climate studies. The success of these studies depends crucially on the knowledge of the quality of climate data such as, for instance, air temperature and rainfall data. For this reason, one of the main challenges for the researchers in this field is to obtain homogeneous series. A time series of climate data is considered homogeneous when the values of the observed data can change only due to climatic factors, i.e., without any interference from external non-climatic factors. Such non-climatic factors may produce undesirable effects in the time series, as unrealistic homogeneity breaks, trends and jumps. In the present work it was investigated climatic time series for the city of Natal, RN, namely air temperature and rainfall time series, for the period spanning from 1961 to 2012. The main purpose was to carry out an analysis in order to check the occurrence of homogeneity breaks or trends in the series under investigation. To this purpose, it was applied some basic statistical procedures, such as normality and independence tests. The occurrence of trends was investigated by linear regression analysis, as well as by the Spearman and Mann-Kendall tests. The homogeneity was investigated by the SNHT, as well as by the Easterling-Peterson and Mann-Whitney-Pettit tests. Analyzes with respect to normality showed divergence in their results. The von Neumann ratio test showed that in the case of the air temperature series the data are not independent and identically distributed (iid), whereas for the rainfall series the data are iid. According to the applied testings, both series display trends. The mean air temperature series displays an increasing trend, whereas the rainfall series shows an decreasing trend. Finally, the homogeneity tests revealed that all series under investigations present inhomogeneities, although they breaks depend on the applied test. In summary, the results showed that the chosen techniques may be applied in order to verify how well the studied time series are characterized. Therefore, these results should be used as a guide for further investigations about the statistical climatology of Natal or even of any other place.

Análise não-linear do campo de temperaturas desenvolvidas durante a soldagem do tipo TIG contínuo em placas delgadas

This study offers an analytical approach in order to provide a determination of the temperature field developed during the DC TIG welding of a thin plate of aluminum. The non-linear characteristics of the phenomenon, such as the dependence of the thermophysical and mechanical properties with temperature were considered in this study. In addition to the conductive heat exchange process, were taken into account the exchange by natural convection and radiation. A transient analysis is performed in order to obtain the temperature field as a function of time. It is also discussed a three-dimensional modeling of the heat source. The results obtained from the analytical model were be compared with the experimental ones and those available in the literature. The analytical results show a good correlation with the experimental ones available in the literature, thus proving the feasibility and efficiency of the analytical method for the simulation of the heat cycle for this welding process.

Estimativas, variabilidade e análise de tendência da evapotranspiração de referência em perímetros irrigados, no semiárido do nordeste brasileiro

The variability / climate change has generated great concern worldwide, is one of the major issues as global warming, which can is affecting the availability of water resources in irrigated perimeters. In the semiarid region of Northeastern Brazil it is known that there is a predominance of drought, but it is not enough known about trends in climate series of joint water loss by evaporation and transpiration (evapotranspiration). Therefore, this study aimed to analyze whether there is increase and / or decrease evidence in the regime of reference evapotranspiration (ETo), for the monthly, annual and interdecadal scales in irrigated polo towns of Juazeiro, BA (9 ° 24'S, 40 ° 26'W and 375,5m) and Petrolina, PE (09 ° 09'S, 40 ° 22'W and 376m), which is the main analysis objective. The daily meteorological data were provided by EMBRAPA Semiárido for the period from 01.01.1976 to 31.12.2014, estimated the daily ETo using the standard method of Penman-Monteith (EToPM) parameterized by Smith (1991). Other methods of more simplified estimatives were calculated and compared to EToPM, as the ones following: Solar Radiation (EToRS), Linacre (EToL), Hargreaves and Samani (EToHS) and the method of Class A pan (EToTCA). The main statistical analysis were non-parametric tests of homogeneity (Run), trend (Mann-kendall), magnitude of the trend (Sen) and early trend detection (Mann-Whitney). The statistical significance adopted was 5 and / or 1%. The Analysis of Variance - ANOVA was used to detect if there is a significant difference in mean interdecadal mean. For comparison between the methods of ETo, it were used the correlation test (r), the Student t test and Tukey levels of 5% significance. Finally, statistics Willmott et al. (1985) statistics was used to evaluate the concordance index and performance of simplified methods compared to the standard method. It obtained as main results that there was a decrease in the time series of EToPM in irrigated areas of Juazeiro, BA and Petrolina, PE, significant respectively at 1 and 5%, with an annual magnitude of -14.5 mm (Juazeiro) and -7.7 mm (Petrolina) and early trend in 1996. The methods which had better for better agreement with EToPM were EToRS with very good performance, in both locations, followed by the method of EToL with good performance (Juazeiro) and median (Petrolina). EToHS had the worst performance (bad) for both locations. It is suggested that this decrease of EToPM can be associated with the increase in irrigated agricultural areas and the construction of Sobradinho lake upstream of the perimeters.

Análise wavelet em curvas de luz estelares de sistemas binários da missão espacial CoRoT

Binary systems are key environments to study the fundamental properties of stars. In this work, we analyze 99 binary systems identified by the CoRoT space mission. From the study of the phase diagrams of these systems, our sample is divided into three groups: those whose systems are characterized by the variability relative to the binary eclipses; those presenting strong modulations probably due to the presence of stellar spots on the surface of star; and those whose systems have variability associated with the expansion and contraction of the surface layers. For eclipsing binary stars, phase diagrams are used to estimate the classification in regard to their morphology, based on the study of equipotential surfaces. In this context, to determine the rotation period, and to identify the presence of active regions, and to investigate if the star exhibits or not differential rotation and study stellar pulsation, we apply the wavelet procedure. The wavelet transform has been used as a powerful tool in the treatment of a large number of problems in astrophysics. Through the wavelet transform, one can perform an analysis in time-frequency light curves rich in details that contribute significantly to the study of phenomena associated with the rotation, the magnetic activity and stellar pulsations. In this work, we apply Morlet wavelet (6th order), which offers high time and frequency resolution and obtain local (energy distribution of the signal) and global (time integration of local map) wavelet power spectra. Using the wavelet analysis, we identify thirteen systems with periodicities related to the rotational modulation, besides the beating pattern signature in the local wavelet map of five pulsating stars over the entire time span.

Análise wavelet em curvas de luz estelares de sistemas binários da missão espacial CoRoT

Binary systems are key environments to study the fundamental properties of stars. In this work, we analyze 99 binary systems identified by the CoRoT space mission. From the study of the phase diagrams of these systems, our sample is divided into three groups: those whose systems are characterized by the variability relative to the binary eclipses; those presenting strong modulations probably due to the presence of stellar spots on the surface of star; and those whose systems have variability associated with the expansion and contraction of the surface layers. For eclipsing binary stars, phase diagrams are used to estimate the classification in regard to their morphology, based on the study of equipotential surfaces. In this context, to determine the rotation period, and to identify the presence of active regions, and to investigate if the star exhibits or not differential rotation and study stellar pulsation, we apply the wavelet procedure. The wavelet transform has been used as a powerful tool in the treatment of a large number of problems in astrophysics. Through the wavelet transform, one can perform an analysis in time-frequency light curves rich in details that contribute significantly to the study of phenomena associated with the rotation, the magnetic activity and stellar pulsations. In this work, we apply Morlet wavelet (6th order), which offers high time and frequency resolution and obtain local (energy distribution of the signal) and global (time integration of local map) wavelet power spectra. Using the wavelet analysis, we identify thirteen systems with periodicities related to the rotational modulation, besides the beating pattern signature in the local wavelet map of five pulsating stars over the entire time span.

Análise da qualidade das águas, Ribeira Brava

O planeamento e gestão dos recursos hídricos é nos dias de hoje uma tarefa complicada, mas interessante e necessária, tendo em vista a satisfação de cada vez mais exigentes padrões de vida das populações e da qualidade do ambiente. Para que sejam possíveis escolhas e decisões judiciosas sobre a melhor forma de utilizar a água disponível, a sua gestão deve ser enformada por leis, actuações administrativas e disposições económico-financeiras, as quais determinam a necessidade da existência de sistemas institucionais competentes para as implementar. Sob o paradigma da sustentabilidade no contexto dos recursos hídricos, procedeu-se a uma avaliação do estado qualitativo das águas superficiais e subterrâneas do concelho da Ribeira Brava, quer a nível da distribuição de águas quer a nível das águas residuais. Inicialmente, caracterizou-se a região hidrográfica em estudo quanto aos aspetos geográficos, demográficos, socioeconómicos, bem como uma perspetiva quanto à caracterização hidrológica e geomorfológica da bacia hidrográfica a ser monitorizada. Posteriormente, apresentou-se, sob um manto teórico, o funcionamento de todo o sistema de abastecimento de água desde a captação até à sua devolução à natureza, passando pelas ETA, redes de distribuição e ETAR, passando a descrever-se a realidade em termos de infraestruturas existentes no concelho da Ribeira Brava. De seguida, procedeu-se à análise paramétrica temporal nas ETA e ETAR do concelho, cruzando esses dados com a legislação em vigor. Como etapa final, retratam-se as principais ilações quanto à monitorização efetuada, quer a nível de águas de distribuição, quer a nível das águas residuais, bem como se contribui com algumas recomendações, tendo em conta a manutenção e melhoria quantitativa e qualitativa da água no concelho da Ribeira Brava.

Solidão e Depressão: perspetiva temporal

O presente estudo, propõe-se explorar a relação entre os constructos de solidão e depressão, contribuindo para esclarecer em que medida a primeira pode ser considerada uma entidade diagnóstica separada da depressão ou pelo contrário, apenas percebida na relação com a mesma. Pretendeu-se averiguar se existem indivíduos sem depressão que apresentem significativos níveis de solidão. Nesta análise privilegiamos, ainda, a perspetiva temporal, pretendemos verificar se há diferenças significativas na evolução do sentimento de solidão, após o período intervalar de três meses. Participaram, neste estudo, uma amostra de 60 indivíduos com idades compreendidas entre os 40 e os 86 anos, sendo a média aproximada de 52 anos. Os instrumentos utilizados para recolher os dados foram um breve Questionário Sociodemográfico; a adaptação portuguesa da Escala de Solidão da UCLA e a Escala Geriátrica de Depressão (GDS). Os dados foram submetidos a análise pelos princípios da estatística paramétrica. Neste estudo a fidedignidade global demonstrou ser elevada sendo o valor de Alpha Cronbach’s de 0,939.A hipótese central foi confirmada constatando-se que, apesar de existir uma associação estatisticamente significativa entre a solidão e a depressão, existem indivíduos sem depressão que apresentam elevados níveis de solidão (p>0,001). Não se verificou uma relação de prevalência da solidão no género feminino e a mesma foi maior em grupos etários mais elevados, no entanto, essa diferença não se revelou estatisticamente significativa. Recorrendo aos testes do qui-quadrado da independência; de concordância Kappa de cohen e ao teste t de student, concluiu-se que existe uma associação significativa de concordância moderada entre a solidão, ao longo do tempo. Esta conclusão reforça a análise da manutenção dos níveis de solidão quando não existe intervenção terapêutica específica. / This study aims to explore the relationship between the constructs of loneliness and depression, helping to clarify how far the former can be considered a separate diagnostic entity of depression or on the contrary, only perceived in relation to the same. We sought to determine whether there are individuals without depression who present significant levels of loneliness. In this analysis we also focus on the temporal perspective. We plan to check for statistically significant differences in the evolution of the feeling of loneliness after a three month period. A sample of 60 individuals aged between 40 and 86, with an average age of approximately 52, participated in this study. The instruments used to collect the data were a brief Sociodemographic Questionnaire, the Portuguese adaptation of the UCLA Loneliness Scale and the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS). The data were subjected to an analysis based on the principles of parametric statistics. In this study the overall reliability proved to be high, Cronbach's alpha value being 0,939. A central hypothesis was confirmed verifying that, although there is a statistically significant association between loneliness and depression, there are individuals without depression presenting high levels of loneliness (p <0.001). There was no ratio of loneliness prevaling in females and the same was higher in older age groups, but this difference did not prove to be statistically significant. Using Cohen’s Kappa chi-square independance and agreement tests; and the Student t test, we concluded that there is a significant association of a moderate correlation in loneliness over time. This reinforces the analysis that loneliness levels are maintained when there is no specific therapeutic intervention.

Análise da concepção arquitetural à luz da arquiteturologia: um estudo da produção de edifícios de uso não-residencial do arquiteto João Maurício Fernandes de Miranda, entre 1961 e 1981

This study explores the architectural conception process using the Architecturologie as an instrument of analysis, based on Enseigner la Conception Architecturale (2000), developed by Boudon - architect, lecturer and French researcher. It begins with the selection of local architect´s works, João Maurício Fernandes de Miranda, which resulted in six non residential projects developed between 1961 and 1981. Architectural readings were developed, with emphasis in the identification of architecturological scales, their functions, relationship and modality of occurrence

Análise da relação entre poupança e investimento para o caso brasileiro, 1996 a 2013

O presente estudo tem por objetivo estimar a relação entre poupança e investimento no curto prazo. Os dados utilizados ficam restritos ao Brasil, no período que varia entre 1996 e 2013. A fim de satisfazer tal finalidade, será estimado um modelo vetor autorregressivo, com base na literatura empírica do modelo Feldstein e Horioka. O resultado obtido indica uma grande mobilidade de capitais para Brasil, em conformidade a não existência de uma relação de precedência temporal (Causalidade de Granger) para as variáveis. Por meio da decomposição da variância é possível inferir também que as variáveis são responsáveis pelas suas próprias variações ao longo do tempo. Ainda, as conclusões obtidas refutam a validade do Enigma Feldstin e Horioka, de que países industrializados teriam uma pequena mobilidade de capitais.

Análise da estrutura e transporte do zooplâncton no estuário do Rio Caravelas (Bahia-Brasil) através do uso do zooscan

Spatial-temporal dynamics of zooplankton in the Caravelas river estuary (Bahia, Brazil). The survey was conducted in order to describe the zooplankton community of the estuary Caravelas (Bahia, Brazil), to quantify and relate the patterns of horizontal and vertical transport with the type of tide (neap and spring) and tidal phase (flood and ebb). Zooplankton samples were collected with the aid of a suction pump (300L), filtered in plankton nets (300μm) and fixed in saline formalin 4%. Samples were collected at a fixed point (A1), near the mouth of the estuary, with samples taken at neap tides and spring tides during the dry and rainy seasons. Samples were collected for 13 hours, at intervals of 1 hour in 3 depths: surface, middle and bottom. Simultaneous collection of biological, we measured the current velocity, temperature and salinity of the water through CTD. In the laboratory, samples were selected for analysis in estereomicroscope, with 25 groups identified, with Copepoda getting the highest number of species. The 168 samples obtained from temporal samples were subsampled and processed on equipment ZooScan, with the aid of software ZooProcess at the end were generated 458.997 vingnettes. 8 taxa were identified automatically, with 16 classified as a semi-automatic. The group Copepoda, despite the limited taxonomic refinement ZooScan, obtained 2 genera and 1 species identified automatically. Among the seasons dry and wet groups Brachyura (zoea), Chaetognatha, and the Calanoid copepods (others), Temora spp., Oithona spp. and Euterpina acutifrons were those who had higher frequency of occurrence, appearing in more than 70% of the samples. Copepoda group showed the largest percentage of relative abundance in both seasons. There was no seasonal variation of total zooplankton, with an average density of 7826±4219 org.m-3 in the dry season, and 7959±3675 org.m-3 in the rainy season, neither between the types and phases of the tides, but seasonal differences were significant recorded for the main zooplankton groups. Vertical stratification was seen for the major zooplankton groups (Brachyura, Chaetognatha, Calanoida (other), Oithona spp, Temora spp. e Euterpina acutifrons). The scale of this stratification varied with the type (square or tide) and tidal phase (flood or ebb). The instantaneous transport was more influenced by current velocity, with higher values observed in spring tides to the total zooplankton, however, there was a variation of this pattern depending on the zooplankton group. According to the data import and export of total zooplankton, the outflow of organisms of the estuary was higher than the input. The results suggest that the estuary of Caravelas may influence the dynamics of organic matter to the adjacent coast, with possible consequences in National Marine Park of Abrolhos

Avaliação espaço-temporal do zooplâncton da laguna estuarina de Guaraíras (RN, Brasil)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

Análise da qualidade das águas, Ribeira Brava

O planeamento e gestão dos recursos hídricos é nos dias de hoje uma tarefa complicada, mas interessante e necessária, tendo em vista a satisfação de cada vez mais exigentes padrões de vida das populações e da qualidade do ambiente. Para que sejam possíveis escolhas e decisões judiciosas sobre a melhor forma de utilizar a água disponível, a sua gestão deve ser enformada por leis, actuações administrativas e disposições económico-financeiras, as quais determinam a necessidade da existência de sistemas institucionais competentes para as implementar. Sob o paradigma da sustentabilidade no contexto dos recursos hídricos, procedeu-se a uma avaliação do estado qualitativo das águas superficiais e subterrâneas do concelho da Ribeira Brava, quer a nível da distribuição de águas quer a nível das águas residuais. Inicialmente, caracterizou-se a região hidrográfica em estudo quanto aos aspetos geográficos, demográficos, socioeconómicos, bem como uma perspetiva quanto à caracterização hidrológica e geomorfológica da bacia hidrográfica a ser monitorizada. Posteriormente, apresentou-se, sob um manto teórico, o funcionamento de todo o sistema de abastecimento de água desde a captação até à sua devolução à natureza, passando pelas ETA, redes de distribuição e ETAR, passando a descrever-se a realidade em termos de infraestruturas existentes no concelho da Ribeira Brava. De seguida, procedeu-se à análise paramétrica temporal nas ETA e ETAR do concelho, cruzando esses dados com a legislação em vigor. Como etapa final, retratam-se as principais ilações quanto à monitorização efetuada, quer a nível de águas de distribuição, quer a nível das águas residuais, bem como se contribui com algumas recomendações, tendo em conta a manutenção e melhoria quantitativa e qualitativa da água no concelho da Ribeira Brava.

Cambios antrópicos y variación espacio-temporal en comunidades de macroinvertebrados acuáticos de lagunas oceánicas : el caso del Archipiélago de las Azores

Dissertação de Mestrado, Gestão e Conservação da Natureza, 16 de Setembro de 2016, Universidade dos Açores.

Detecção e análise de áreas queimadas por meio da normalização de séries temporais MODIS na região do Jalapão

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Ciências Humanas, Departamento de Geografia, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Geografia, 2015.

Análise da influência das provas periciais produzidas por professores da Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte nos processos administrativos oriundos do Ministério Público do RN

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Universidade Federal da Paraíba, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Programa de Pós-Graduação Multiinstitucional e Inter-Regional de Pós-Graduação em Ciências Contábeis, 2016.