Economic voting and electoral volatility in Turkish provinces

Two groups of questions were addressed in this paper: (1) Is voter punishment of the incumbent the primary factor in electoral volatility? Are there any other types of vote swings that underlie volatility? (2) In general, does a decline in economic growth destabilize voter behavior? If so, what kinds of vote swings does an economic downturn tend to generate? Provincial-level panel data analysis yielded the following results: (1) Changes in volatility is primarily due to vote swings from the incumbent to the opposition and also to and from left-wing and right-wing parties. (2) Lower economic growth increases electoral volatility. Economic decline induces vote swings not only from the government to the opposition but also from left-wing to right-wing parties. This is probably because right-wing parties seem more concerned with economic issues and are thus more popular than left-wing parties with lower-income voters.

A Critical Review of Opinion Polls relating to Iranian Voting Intentions: Problems of Research Methodology as applied to Complex Societies

After the 10th Iranian Presidential election on June 12, 2009, several public opinion polls taken in Iran attracted the attention of policy-makers and journalists around the world because of the political crisis that followed. In this paper I first review critically the polls conducted by the WPO (WorldPublicOpinion.org), PIPA (Program on International Policy Attitudes) at the University of Maryland. I also review an essay by Steven Kull, which is based on the aforementioned poll results and which in my opinion leads to false conclusions concerning Iran’s political prospects. I also discuss “An Analysis of Multiple Polls of the Iranian Public,” published by WPO-PIPA on February 3 2010. The present paper arrives at the overall conclusion that it is impossible to obtain an accurate image of political opinions in societies as complicated as that of Iran by concentrating on only one technique of research and analysis, especially when the political and social situation in the society concerned is in a state of constant flux.

Non-economic voting and incumbent strength in Turkey

Evidence suggests that incumbent parties find it harder to be re-elected in emerging than in advanced democracies because of more serious economic problems in the former. Yet the pro-Islamic Justice and Development Party (AKP) has ruled Turkey since 2002. Does economic performance sufficiently account for the electoral strength of the AKP government? Reliance on economic performance alone to gain public support makes a government vulnerable to economic fluctuations. This study includes time-series regressions for the period 1950-2011 in Turkey and demonstrates that even among Turkey's long-lasting governments, the AKP has particular electoral strength that cannot be adequately explained by economic performance.

Voting behavior in Indonesia from 1999 to 2014 : religious cleavage or economic performance?

In this study, we examine the voting behavior in Indonesian parliamentary elections from 1999 to 2014. After summarizing the changes in Indonesian parties' share of the vote from a historical standpoint, we investigate the voting behavior with simple regression models to analyze the effect of regional characteristics on Islamic/secular parties' vote share, using aggregated panel data at the district level. Then, we also test the hypothesis of retrospective economic voting. The results show that districts which formerly stood strongly behind Islamic parties continued to select those parties, or gave preference to abstention over the parties in some elections. From the point of view of retrospective economic voting, we found that districts which experienced higher per capita economic growth gave more support to the ruling parties, although our results remain tentative because information on 2014 is not yet available.

A proposal for the metrological characterization of circular features with digital optical machines

This paper aims to analyze the different adjustment methods commonly used to characterize indirect metrology circular features: least square circle, minimum zone circle, maximum inscribed circle and minimum circumscribed circle. The analysis was performed from images obtained by digital optical machines. The calculation algorithms, self-developed, have been implemented in Matlab® and take into consideration as study variables: the amplitude of angular sector of the circular feature, its nominal radio and the magnification used by the optical machine. Under different conditions, it was determined the radius and circularity error of different circular standards. The comparison of the results, obtained by the different methods of adjustments used, with certified values for the standards, has allowed us to determine the accuracy of each method and its scope.

Survey and brain storming studies about machines, constructions, human and environmental risk consideration in the careers of the Universidad Politécnica of Madrid

The Universidad Politécnica of Madrid (UPM) includes schools and faculties that were for engineering degrees, architecture and computer science, that are now in a quick EEES Bolonia Plan metamorphosis getting into degrees, masters and doctorate structures. They are focused towards action in machines, constructions, enterprises, that are subjected to machines, human and environment created risks. These are present in actions such as use loads, wind, snow, waves, flows, earthquakes, forces and effects in machines, vehicles behavior, chemical effects, and other environmental factors including effects of crops, cattle and beasts, forests, and varied essential economic and social disturbances. Emphasis is for authors in this session more about risks of natural origin, such as for hail, winds, snow or waves that are not exactly known a priori, but that are often considered with statistical expected distributions giving extreme values for convenient return periods. These distributions are known from measures in time, statistic of extremes and models about hazard scenarios and about responses of man made constructions or devices. In each engineering field theories were built about hazards scenarios and how to cover for important risks. Engineers must get that the systems they handle, such as vehicles, machines, firms or agro lands or forests, obtain production with enough safety for persons and with decent economic results in spite of risks. For that risks must be considered in planning, in realization and in operation, and safety margins must be taken but at a reasonable cost. That is a small level of risks will often remain, due to limitations in costs or because of due to strange hazards, and maybe they will be covered by insurance in cases such as in transport with cars, ships or aircrafts, in agro for hail, or for fire in houses or in forests. These and other decisions about quality, security for men or about business financial risks are sometimes considered with Decision Theories models, using often tools from Statistics or operational Research. The authors have done and are following field surveys about risk consideration in the careers in UPM, making deep analysis of curricula taking into account the new structures of degrees in the EEES Bolonia Plan, and they have considered the risk structures offered by diverse schools of Decision theories. That gives an aspect of the needs and uses, and recommendations about improving in the teaching about risk, that may include special subjects especially oriented for each career, school or faculty, so as to be recommended to be included into the curricula, including an elaboration and presentation format using a multi-criteria decision model.

A computer vision approach for weeds identification through Support Vector Machines

This paper outlines an automatic computervision system for the identification of avena sterilis which is a special weed seed growing in cereal crops. The final goal is to reduce the quantity of herbicide to be sprayed as an important and necessary step for precision agriculture. So, only areas where the presence of weeds is important should be sprayed. The main problems for the identification of this kind of weed are its similar spectral signature with respect the crops and also its irregular distribution in the field. It has been designed a new strategy involving two processes: image segmentation and decision making. The image segmentation combines basic suitable image processing techniques in order to extract cells from the image as the low level units. Each cell is described by two area-based attributes measuring the relations among the crops and weeds. The decision making is based on the SupportVectorMachines and determines if a cell must be sprayed. The main findings of this paper are reflected in the combination of the segmentation and the SupportVectorMachines decision processes. Another important contribution of this approach is the minimum requirements of the system in terms of memory and computation power if compared with other previous works. The performance of the method is illustrated by comparative analysis against some existing strategies.

Towards description and optimization of abstract machines in an extension of prolog

Competitive abstract machines for Prolog are usually large, intricate, and incorpórate sophisticated optimizations. This makes them difñcult to code, optimize, and, especially, maintain and extend. This is partly due to the fact that efñciency considerations make it necessary to use low-level languages in their implementation. Writing the abstract machine (and ancillary code) in a higher-level language can help harness this inherent complexity. In this paper we show how the semantics of basic components of an efficient virtual machine for Prolog can be described using (a variant of) Prolog which retains much of its semantics. These descriptions are then compiled to C and assembled to build a complete bytecode emulator. Thanks to the high level of the language used and its closeness to Prolog the abstract machine descriptions can be manipulated using standard Prolog compilation and optimization techniques with relative ease. We also show how, by applying program transformations selectively, we obtain abstract machine implementations whose performance can match and even exceed that of highly-tuned, hand-crafted emulators.

Analysis of electronic and telematic voting systems in binding experiences

This paper is about analysis and assess of three experiences on telematic and electronic voting dealing with such aspects as security and achievement of the social requirements. These experiences have been chosen taking into account the deepness of the public documentation and the technological challenge they faces.

Use of Java Cards in a telematic voting system.

This paper presents a general view of the telematic voting system developed by its authors, with a special emphasis on the important role that smart cards play in this scenario. The use of smart cards as basic pieces for providing secure cryptographic operations in this type of voting scheme is justified. The differences and advantages of Java Cards in comparison with the ?classical? smart cards (those that completely conform to the ISO/IEC 7816 standard) are also discussed. As an example, the paper describes one of the applets implemented in the voting Java Card as part of the general telematic voting application.

VOTESCRIPT: Telematic voting system designed to enable final count verification

In this paper we present a global description of a telematic voting system based on advanced cryptography and on the use of smart cards (VOTESCRIPT system) whose most outstanding characteristic is the ability to verify that the tally carried out by the system is correct, meaning that the results published by the system correspond with votes cast. The VOTESCRIPT system provides an individual verification mechanism allowing each Voter to confirm whether his vote has been correctly counted. The innovation with respect to other solutions lies in the fact that the verification process is private so that Voters have no way of proving what they voted in the presence of a non-authorized third party. Vote buying and selling or any other kind of extortion are prevented. The existence of the Intervention Systems allows the whole electoral process to be controlled by groups of citizens or authorized candidatures. In addition to this the system can simply make an audit not only of the final results, but also of the whole process. Global verification provides the Scrutineers with robust cryptographic evidence which enables unequivocal proof if the system has operated in a fraudulent way.

Contributions to traditional electronic voting systems in order to reinforce citizen confidence

This document provides a general description of the telematic voting scenario designed by the author?s research group. This scenario reinforces verification procedures as key elements to achieve full acceptance of the system on the part of voters. To frame this work, a general overview of electronic voting is given and the conditions entailed by these systems are specified.

Analysis of electronic and telematic voting systems in binding experiences.

This paper is about analysis and assess of three experiences on telematic and electronic voting dealing with such aspects as security and achievement of the social requirements. These experiences have been chosen taking into account the deepness of the public documentation and the technological challenge they faces.

Development of a management system for virtual machines on private clouds

Cloud computing and, more particularly, private IaaS, is seen as a mature technol- ogy with a myriad solutions to choose from. However, this disparity of solutions and products has instilled in potential adopters the fear of vendor and data lock- in. Several competing and incompatible interfaces and management styles have increased even more these fears. On top of this, cloud users might want to work with several solutions at the same time, an integration that is difficult to achieve in practice. In this Master Thesis I propose a management architecture that tries to solve these problems; it provides a generalized control mechanism for several cloud infrastructures, and an interface that can meet the requirements of the users. This management architecture is designed in a modular way, and using a generic infor- mation model. I have validated the approach through the implementation of the components needed for this architecture to support a sample private IaaS solution: OpenStack.

Máquinas o atmósferas: La estética de la energía en la arquitectura, 1750-2000 = From Machines to Atmospheres: The Aesthetics of Energy in Architecture, 1750-2000

La energía es ya un tema arquitectónico, pero su incorporación al proyecto ha sido hasta ahora fundamentalmente técnica, dando pie a una especie de funcionalismo ecológico cuyo destino es acaso repetir los errores de los viejos funcionalismos en su confianza de encontrar modos ‘objetivos’ de transmutar la energía en forma construida, pero sin que en tal proceso parezca haber hueco para mediaciones de tipo estético. Sin embargo, son precisamente tales mediaciones las que necesitan analizarse para que la adopción de los temas energéticos resulte fructífera en la arquitectura, y asimismo para dar cuenta de otras perspectivas complementarias —filosóficas, científicas, artísticas— que hoy forman el complejo campo semántico de la energía. Partiendo de la fecha de 1750 —que da comienzo simbólicamente al proceso de contaminaciones ‘modernas’ entre la arquitectura y otras disciplinas—, esta tesis analiza los diferentes modos con los que proyectos y edificios han expresado literal y analógicamente ciertos temas o ideales energéticos, demostrando la existencia de una ‘estética de la energía’ en la arquitectura y también de una tradición proyectual e intelectual sostenida en ella. Con este fin, se han seleccionados siete metáforas que vinculan tanto técnica como ideológicamente a la arquitectura con la energía: la metáfora de la máquina, asociada al ideal de movimiento y la autorregulación; las metáforas del arabesco, del cristal y del organismo, afines entre sí en su modo de dar cuenta del principio de la morfogénesis o energía creadora de la naturaleza; la metáfora de la actividad interna de los materiales; la metáfora del gradiente, que expresa la condición térmica y climática de la arquitectura, y, finalmente, la de la atmósfera que, recogiendo los sentidos anteriores, los actualiza en el contexto de la estética contemporánea. La selección de estas siete metáforas se ha llevado a cabo después de un barrido exhaustivo de la bibliografía precedente, y ha estructurado un relato cuyo método combina la perspectiva general —que permite cartografiar las continuidades históricas— con la cercana —que atiende a las problemas específicos de cada tema o metáfora—, complementándolas con una aproximación de sesgo iconográfico cuyo propósito es incidir en los vínculos que se dan entre lo ideológico y lo morfológico. El análisis ha puesto de manifiesto cómo detrás de cada una de estas metáforas se oculta un principio ideológico común —la justificación de la arquitectura desde planteamientos externos procedentes de la ciencia, la filosofía y el arte—, y cómo en cada uno de los casos estudiados las asimilaciones más fructíferas de la energía se han producido según mecanismos de mímesis analógica que inciden más en los procesos que en las formas que estos generan, y que en último término son de índole estética, lo cual constituye un indicio de los métodos de la arquitectura por venir. ABSTRACT Although it is already an architectural theme, the matter of incorporating energy into projects has up to now been mainly technical, giving rise to a kind of ecological functionalism which may be bound to old funcionalist mistakes in hopes of finding “objective” ways of transmuting energy into built forms without aesthetic considerations. However, it is precisely such considerations that need to be analyzed if the adoption of energy issues in architecture is to bear fruit and also to account for other complementary perspectives – philosophical, scientific, artistic – which today form the complex fabric of the energy semantic field. Beginning in 1750 – symbolic start of ‘modern’ contaminations between architecture and other disciplines –, this thesis analyzes the different ways in which projects and buildings have literally and analogically expressed certain subjects or ideals on energy, and demonstrates the existence of an “aesthetics of energy” in architecture, as well as of an intellectual and design tradition based on such aesthetics. For this purpose, seven metaphors are selected to link energy to architecture both technically and ideologically: the machine’s metaphor, associated with the ideal of mouvement and self-regulation; the arabesque, glass and the organism’s metaphors, which account for the morphogenesis principle, i.e. creative energy of nature; the metaphor linked to matter and the ideal of internal activity; the gradient’s metaphor, which expressed the thermal and climatic condition of architecture, and, finally, that of the atmosphere which, collecting the above meanings, updates them in the context of contemporary aesthetics. The selection of these seven metaphors was carried out after a thorough scan of the preceding literature, and has structured a reasoning that combines the overview method – which accounts for historical continuities – with the nearby one – which meets the specifics problems of each theme or metaphor –, both supplemented with an iconographic bias, the purpose of which is to visually express the links existing between the ideological and the morphological. So presented, the analysis shows how, behind each of these metaphors, lies a common ideological principle – the justification of architecture from scientific, philosophical and artistic “external” angles –, and how in each of the studied cases the most successful assimilation of energy were those produced by aesthetic mechanisms of analogical mimesis not focused in forms but in processes that generate them: an indication of the methods of architecture to come.